BAN C A NA Ţ IONAL Ă ROM Â NI EI
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Transcript of BAN C A NA Ţ IONAL Ă ROM Â NI EI
BANCA NABANCA NAŢŢIONALIONALĂ AĂ A ROM ROMÂÂNIEINIEIBANBANCCA NAA NAŢŢIONALIONALĂĂ ROM ROMÂÂNINIEIEIBANBANCCA NAA NAŢŢIONALIONALĂĂ ROM ROMÂÂNINIEIEI
BANCA NABANCA NAŢŢIONALIONALĂ AĂ A ROM ROMÂÂNIEINIEI
Romanian links with the euro area are material, but the contagion effects from sovereign debt crisis has
remained subdued so far…
Source: ECB, European Commission, BNR calculations Bloomberg, BNR calculations
Importance of the EA for the economy and the banking sector
Risk perception (bp), January - mid May 2012
Note: Min, Max, and May-15 values
BANCA NABANCA NAŢŢIONALIONALĂ AĂ A ROM ROMÂÂNIEINIEI
…the soundness of the Romanian macroeconomic stance and of the prospects, in line with the region,
contributing to such developments
Source: Source: European Commission, spring forecast 2012 (May 2012)
* projections
Main macroeconomic indicators in selected countries
BANCA NABANCA NAŢŢIONALIONALĂ AĂ A ROM ROMÂÂNIEINIEI
A slowdown of the EA economic growth would be relatively well managed by the Romanian companies
involved in the foreign trade…
Source: BNR calculations
Main financial soundness indicators for corporate sector, June 2011
BANCA NABANCA NAŢŢIONALIONALĂ AĂ A ROM ROMÂÂNIEINIEI
…and an orderly deleveraging process in the EA would orderly impact the SEE region. For Romania, the indirect channel (common lender) marginally changed in 2011,
while direct channel is weak
Source: BIS, BNR calculations, Fratzscher (2002)
Sensitivity of the banking sectors to regional shocks, through common
lender channel
Average holdings of non-resident government securities by the RO banks
Source: monetary survey
sep-11/dec-10 Turkey
- 3.0 2.1 1.7 5.6 5.5 17.9 - 2.9 2.1 2.2 5.7 6.7 19.4
6.4 - 8.2 4.3 7.7 1.9 28.5 6.0 - 7.9 4.7 7.9 2.1 28.6
6.3 11.6 - 8.7 8.1 5.1 39.8 6.3 11.6 - 9.2 8.2 5.8 41.2
12.1 13.9 19.7 - 13.9 24.9 84.5 14.5 15.2 20.4 - 15.0 23.2 88.3
16.3 10.6 7.8 5.9 - 10.9 51.5 16.7 11.1 7.9 6.5 - 12.9 55.1
20.2 3.2 6.1 13.1 13.5 - 56.0 19.7 3.0 5.6 10.2 12.9 - 51.4
61.4 42.3 43.8 33.7 48.8 48.3 - 63.2 43.8 43.9 32.8 49.7 50.6 -
Poland
Romania
Turkey
Total
TotalBulgaria Croatia Hungary Poland Romania
Bulgaria
Croatia
Hungary
BANCA NABANCA NAŢŢIONALIONALĂ AĂ A ROM ROMÂÂNIEINIEI
The Romanian banking sector weathered relatively well the financial crisis…
Source: BNR
Capital adequacy ratio (percent) Banking profitability (percent)
Source: BNR
BANCA NABANCA NAŢŢIONALIONALĂ AĂ A ROM ROMÂÂNIEINIEI
…and is adequately equipped to withstand liquidity shocks from capital flights
Liquidity stress test results, December 2011 (RON mil)
Stress test scenarios
S1 S2
Domestic deposits -10% -20%
ST parent funding -25% -50%
ST corporate external funding
-25% -50%
Banks FX swaps 1M -25% -50%
BANCA NABANCA NAŢŢIONALIONALĂ AĂ A ROM ROMÂÂNIEINIEI
The Romanian banks with Greek shareholders are in a good position to cope with adverse developments
Main banking indicators (December 2011)
Source: BNR
BANCA NABANCA NAŢŢIONALIONALĂ AĂ A ROM ROMÂÂNIEINIEI
Credit conditions orderly developed from both domestic banks and foreign lenders financing
Romanian economy
Source: BNR
* BNR estimations for NBFIs, for the period 2006-2008
Lending from domestic and foreign financial institutions (MFIs and NBFIs*)
BANCA NABANCA NAŢŢIONALIONALĂ AĂ A ROM ROMÂÂNIEINIEI
Lending standards of the domestic banks tightened, in line with euro area developments…
Note: Net percentage - positive values indicate a tightening of lending standards
Source: BNR, Bank lending survey, May 2012 ECB, The Euro Area Bank Lending Survey, May 2012
Changes in credit standards (net percentage %)
Companies Households
BANCA NABANCA NAŢŢIONALIONALĂ AĂ A ROM ROMÂÂNIEINIEI
…the availability of funding in FX currencies having a contribution in such direction
Source: BNR calculations
Loan-to-deposit ratio, by currency
Wholesale funding from abroad, EUR bl.
Source: BNR
BANCA NABANCA NAŢŢIONALIONALĂ AĂ A ROM ROMÂÂNIEINIEI
FX lending is mainly a stock challenge…
Source: BNR calculations
Non-financial companies Households
Source: Private Credit Bureau, BNR calculations
Loans from domestic banks and NBFIs, by currency and type (RON bln)
BANCA NABANCA NAŢŢIONALIONALĂ AĂ A ROM ROMÂÂNIEINIEI
…and the credit risk from FX lending over-paced the credit risk in domestic currency
Source: BNR calculations
NPL non-financial companies NPL households
Source: Private Credit Bureau, BNR calculations
BANCA NABANCA NAŢŢIONALIONALĂ AĂ A ROM ROMÂÂNIEINIEI
The banks asset quality remains an important challenge for the financial stability
Source: BNR calculations
NPL non-financial companies NPL households
Source: Private Credit Bureau, BNR calculations
BANCA NABANCA NAŢŢIONALIONALĂ AĂ A ROM ROMÂÂNIEINIEI
Conclusions
• A disorderly unfold of the EA sovereign debt crisis would impact Romania through: (i) a deterioration of the availability of funding (through both price and quantitative channels), and (ii) a weakening economic growth prospects.
• The Romanian banking sector and the companies involved in foreign trade are adequately equipped to withstand external adverse developments.
• Credit conditions orderly developed in Romania, the central bank taking early measures: (i) calling for additional capital from banks shareholders, (ii) supporting Vienna Initiative type arrangements, and (iii) fostering cooperation with home supervisory authorities.
• Carrying on prudent policy implementation, in line with EU and IMF arrangements, will continue to provide confidence to the markets and to keep the prudential buffers to adequate levels.