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Aéropostale: Market Misunderstanding Of Direction - Unjustified Rally Indicates Large Downside
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Transcript of Aéropostale: Market Misunderstanding Of Direction - Unjustified Rally Indicates Large Downside
Aéropostale, Inc. Pitch (NYSE:ARP)| Equity Analysis Diagrams
Market Misunderstanding of Company Direction – Unjustified Rally Provides Chance for Short Sellers to gain 73% Upside
Short Stock Pitch and Valuation
Jung-Yung Jonathan Chang | February 16, 2015
Aéropostale Pitch (NYSE:ARO)
Short Stock Pitch and Valuation
Table of Contents
I. INDUSTRY OVERVIEW………………………………………………… 3
II. COMPANY OVERVIEW………………………………………………… 5
III. FINANCIAL OVERVIEW……………………………………………….. 14
IV. APPENDIX……………………………………………………………….. 20
Industry Overview | Consumer Retail and Products
Short Stock Pitch and Valuation
Aéropostale Pitch (NYSE:ARO)
3
Aéropostale Pitch (NYSE:ARO)
E-Commerce Surge Resulting in Smaller Stores and More Closing
Industry Overview
4Sources: Bloomberg, John Buzolits & Poonam Goyal
Short Stock Pitch and Valuation
There has been a rise in competition and a surge in online shopping which have been forcing some smaller retailers to exit the
industry. Consolidation seems to be a fairly prominent factor in the industry. With less opportunity for growth, a focus on margins
may be important. American Eagle plans to close 150 stores in the next 3 years while Abercrombie & Fitch plans to close 60 in
coming years. Aeropostale and Express have similar plans.
Company Overview | Aéropostale
Short Stock Pitch and Valuation
Aéropostale Pitch (NYSE:ARO)
5
Aéropostale Pitch (NYSE:ARO)
M
5M
10M
15M
20M
25M
30M
35M
40M
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
$9
Feb-18-2014 May-18-2014 Aug-18-2014 Nov-18-2014
Volume Share Price
Company Overview
6Sources: Capital IQ, Company Website
Short Stock Pitch and Valuation
ARO Price – Volume Performance
Aéropostale Pitch (NYSE:ARO)Company Overview
7Sources: Capital IQ, Company Website
Short Stock Pitch and Valuation
Brands No Longer Worn
Brands No Longer Worn
% Total
Rank Spring 2013 Rank Fall 2013 Rank Spring 2014
1 Aeropostale 33% 1 Aeropostale 25% 1 Aeropostale 32%
2 Hollister 17% 2 Abercrombie & Fitch 22% 2 Abercrombie & Fitch 19%
3 Abercrombie & Fitch 10% 3 Hollister 15% 3 Hollister 16%
4 Justice/Limited Too 5% 4 Justice/Limited Too 8% 4 Justice/Limited Too 8%
5 Gap 4% 5 Gap 5% 5 Gap 5%
6 American Eagle 2% 6 Forever 21 2% 6 American Eagle 3%
7 Baby Phat 2% 7 American Eagle 2% 7 Old Navy 1%
8 Old Navy 1% 8 Old Navy 2% 8 Nike/Jordans 1%
9 Forever 21 1% 9 Roxy 2% 9 Forever 21 1%
10 6 Brand Tie 1% 10 Juicy Couture 1% 10 3 Brand Tie 1%
Aéropostale Pitch (NYSE:ARO)Company Overview
8Sources: Capital IQ, Company Website
Short Stock Pitch and Valuation
Brands No Longer Worn
Aeropostale, 33%
Hollister, 17%
Abercrombie & Fitch,
10%
Justice/Limited Too,
5%
Gap, 4%
American Eagle, 2%
Baby Phat, 2%
Old Navy, 1%
Forever 21, 1%
6 Brand Tie, 1%
Brands No Longer Worn in Spring 2013
Aeropostale, 25%
Abercrombie & Fitch,
22%
Hollister, 15%
Justice/Limited Too,
8%Gap, 5%
Forever 21, 2%
American Eagle, 2%
Old Navy, 2%
Roxy, 2%
Juicy Couture,
1%
Brands No Longer Worn in Fall 2013
Aeropostale, 32%
Abercrombie & Fitch,
19%
Hollister, 16%
Justice/Limited Too,
8%
Gap, 5% American Eagle, 3%
Old Navy, 1%
Nike/Jordans, 1%
Forever 21, 1%
3 Brand Tie, 1%
Brands No Longer Worn in Spring 2014
Aéropostale Pitch (NYSE:ARO)Company Overview
9Sources: Capital IQ, Company Website
Short Stock Pitch and Valuation
Income Statement
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2011 2012 2013 2014
Cost Reductions Unable to Keep Up with Revenue Decline
Revenue Growth COGS Growth SG&A Growth
Aéropostale Pitch (NYSE:ARO)
(150%)
(130%)
(110%)
(90%)
(70%)
(50%)
(30%)
(10%)
10%
30%
50%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
EBIT Margins (DCF Assumptions vs. CAGR Growth)
EBIT Margins (Using CAGR) EBIT Margins (Assuming Company Revamp)
10Sources: Capital IQ, Company Website
Short Stock Pitch and Valuation
Income Statement
Company Overview
Aéropostale Pitch (NYSE:ARO)
$ -
$1.0
$2.0
$3.0
$4.0
$5.0
$6.0
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
$500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Declining Tangible Value
Tangible Book Value Tangible Book Value/Share
11Sources: Capital IQ, Company Website
Short Stock Pitch and Valuation
Balance Sheet
Company Overview
Aéropostale Pitch (NYSE:ARO)
12Sources: Capital IQ, Company Website
Short Stock Pitch and Valuation
Technical Analysis – Ichimoku Clouds
Company Overview
Aéropostale Pitch (NYSE:ARO)
13Sources: Capital IQ, Company Website
Short Stock Pitch and Valuation
Technical Analysis – Bollinger Bands
Company Overview
Financial Overview | Aéropostale Inc.
Short Stock Pitch and Valuation
Aéropostale Pitch (NYSE:ARO)
14
Aéropostale Pitch (NYSE:ARO)
Aéropostale has negative earnings and EBITDA so itself does not have many multiples except for its Revenue multiple. Comparables analysis was used primarily for a potential exit multiple for discounted cash flow analysis. It is currently at a heavy discount however this is validated considering no growth, no earnings, and no dividends.
Financial Overview
15Sources: Capital IQ, Equity Research Reports
Short Stock Pitch and Valuation
Public Company Comparables
($ in millions, except per share data)
Market Enterprise EV / EBITDA FCF Dividend Price / Earnings EV / Revenue
Company Name Capitalization Value LTM FY1 FY2 Margin % Yield % LTM FY1 FY2 LTM FY1
Larger Speciality Retailers with Mkt Cap $2B+
L Brands, Inc $27,661 $31,899 13.9 x 13.6 x 12.5 x 10.1% 1.4% 2920.0% 27.7 x 24.5 x 2.8 x 2.8 x
The Gap, Inc. 17,451 17,877 6.8 x 7.0 x 6.7 x 7.1% 2.1% 14.6 x 14.7 x 13.6 x 1.1 x 1.1 x
Urban Outfitters Inc. 5,064 4,821 9.7 x 9.6 x 8.6 x 3.9% - 23.9 x 23.3 x 19.6 x 1.5 x 1.5 x
American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. 2,855 2,575 8.0 x 7.5 x 6.5 x 2.4% 3.4% 2410.0% 23.9 x 18.5 x 0.8 x 0.8 x
Chico's FAS Inc. 2,811 2,620 9.3 x 9.4 x 8.2 x 5.2% 1.6% 27.5 x 27.9 x 22.4 x 1.0 x 1.0 x
The Buckle, Inc. 2,399 2,191 7.6 x 7.6 x 7.4 x 13.1% 7.4% 14.7 x 14.7 x 14.3 x 1.9 x 1.9 x
Ascena Retail Group Inc. 2,132 2,199 5.0 x 5.4 x 4.5 x -2.3% - 14.2 x 17.9 x 13.3 x 0.5 x 0.5 x
Mean 8.6 x 8.6 x 7.8 x 5.6% - 21.2 x 21.5 x 18.0 x 1.4 x 1.4 x
Median 8.0 x 7.6 x 7.4 x 5.2% - 23.9 x 23.3 x 18.5 x 1.1 x 1.1 x
Smaller Speciality Retailers with Mkt Cap Less than $2B
Abercrombie & Fitch Co. $1,808 $1,837 4.4 x 4.4 x 4.2 x 8.7% 3.1% 17.7 x 16.5 x 14.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x
ANN INC. 1,670 1,560 6.4 x 6.6 x 6.0 x 1.5% - 20.1 x 21.4 x 17.6 x 0.6 x 0.6 x
Guess? Inc. 1,620 1,275 4.8 x 6.1 x 5.7 x 4.9% 4.7% 14.0 x 18.1 x 16.7 x 0.5 x 0.5 x
The Children's Place, Inc. 1,255 1,064 7.0 x 6.6 x 6.2 x 5.6% 0.9% 21.6 x 19.5 x 17.2 x 0.6 x 0.6 x
Express Inc. 1,232 1,287 5.7 x 6.3 x 5.7 x 2.1% - 15.5 x 19.1 x 14.9 x 0.6 x 0.6 x
Francesca's Holdings Corp. 675 652 9.1 x 9.5 x 8.3 x 6.9% - 18.3 x 19.6 x 16.6 x 1.8 x 1.7 x
New York & Company Inc. 154 113 3.7 x 5.7 x 3.1 x 1.2% - 15460.0% NM 33.0 x 0.1 x 0.1 x
Mean 5.9 x 6.5 x 5.6 x 4.4% 2.9% 37.4 x 19.0 x 18.6 x 0.7 x 0.7 x
Median 5.7 x 6.3 x 5.7 x 4.9% 3.1% 18.3 x 19.3 x 16.7 x 0.6 x 0.6 x
Luxury Apparel and Textile Retailers
Kate Spade & Company $4,308 $4,593 70.7 x 31.3 x 23.1 x 13.3% - NM 109.1 x 57.1 x 3.1 x 4.1 x
Lululemon Athletica Inc. 9,369 8,735 20.5 x 20.7 x 18.3 x 11.0% - 40.4 x 36.1 x 31.5 x 5.1 x 4.8 x
Vera Bradley, Inc. 813 723 8.6 x 8.9 x 7.5 x 15.6% - 19.1 x 19.8 x 16.6 x 1.4 x 1.4 x
Mean 33.3 x 20.3 x 16.3 x 13.3% - 29.8 x 55.0 x 35.1 x 3.2 x 3.4 x
Median 20.5 x 20.7 x 18.3 x 13.3% - 29.8 x 36.1 x 31.5 x 3.1 x 4.1 x
Aéropostale, Inc. 287 314 NM NM NM 0.4% - NM NM NM 0.2 x 0.2 x
Overall Mean 11.8 x 9.8 x 8.4 x 6.5% 3.1% 29.3 x 26.8 x 21.3 x 1.4 x 1.4 x
Overall Median 7.6 x 7.5 x 6.7 x 5.6% 2.6% 19.6 x 19.7 x 17.2 x 1.0 x 1.0 x
Aéropostale Pitch (NYSE:ARO)Financial Overview
16Sources: Capital IQ, Equity Research Reports
Short Stock Pitch and Valuation
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
($ in millions, except per share data)
Unlevered Free Cash Flow Calculation
Calendar Year Ending February 1, CAGR
2011A 2012A 2013P 2014P 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2011-2014
Revenue: $2,400.4 $2,342.3 $2,386.2 $2,090.9 $2,090.9 $2,090.9 $2,090.9 $2,090.9 $2,090.9 (4.5%)
Revenue Growth 7.6% -2.4% 1.9% -12.4%
Conservative Projections -2.5% $2,038.6 $1,987.7 $1,938.0 $1,889.5 $1,842.3
Base Projections 0.0% $2,090.9 $2,090.9 $2,090.9 $2,090.9 $2,090.9
Optimistic Projections 2.5% $2,143.2 $2,196.8 $2,251.7 $2,308.0 $2,365.7
COGS $1,369.2 $1,560.5 $1,601.0 $1,522.5 $1,507.2 $1,492.2 $1,477.2 $1,462.5 $1,447.8 3.6%
COGS Growth 9.4% 14.0% 2.6% -4.9% -1.0% -1.0% -1.0% -1.0% -1.0%
SG&A $637.4 $652.3 $693.1 $703.2 $696.1 $689.2 $682.3 $675.5 $668.7 3.3%
SG&A Growth 7.4% 2.3% 6.3% 1.5% -1.0% -1.0% -1.0% -1.0% -1.0%
EBIT Margin 16.41% 5.53% 3.86% -6.44% -5.38% -4.3% -3.3% -2.2% -1.2% (173.2%)
EBIT $393.9 $129.6 $92.1 ($134.7) ($112.5) ($90.4) ($68.6) ($47.0) ($25.7) (169.9%)
EBITDA $451.9 $194.7 $157.9 ($70.4) ($49.2) ($27.1) ($5.3) $16.3 $37.7 (153.8%)
Less: Provision for Taxes 158.3 49.9 37.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (100.0%)
Unlevered Net Income $235.5 $79.7 $54.5 ($134.7) ($112.5) ($90.4) ($68.6) ($47.0) ($25.7) (183.0%)
Plus: D&A (excl. non-deductible GW amort.) 58.0 65.1 65.7 64.4 63.3 63.3 63.3 63.3 63.3 3.5%
Less: Capital Expenditures (100.8) (73.3) (72.3) (84.1) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (5.9%)
Less: Increase in Net Working Capital (39.7) (36.1) (0.2) (27.4) (25.9) (25.9) (25.9) (25.9) (25.9) (11.7%)
Unlevered Free Cash Flow $153.0 $35.4 $47.8 ($181.8) ($75.0) ($53.0) ($31.2) ($9.6) $11.8
Considering the qualitative factors of the stock and the rapid declining image of the brand, it would be realistic to assume a revenue decline of 5% or more. Considering its revenue decline of -12.4% in 2014 and then further decline throughout the year, asafe assumption could have been a bear projection of -10%. However, to be optimistic as possible and it became assumed that the company might be able to achieve stagnant growth. Its historical SG&A costs have been growing despite revenue growth and its COGS have been decreasing at a slower rate than its revenue. For instance, in 2014, despite sales dropping 12.4%, COGS only decreased 4.9% and SG&A increased 1.5%. For projections moving forward, it was assumed they could remove these cost inefficiencies and reduce both their COGS and SG&A while having stagnant growth. This was highly optimistic as there is no proof in their historical projections that they have dealt with cost efficiencies well. Furthermore, there was assumed to be no taxes from accumulation of NOL’s and no capital expenditure expenses to remain conservative.
Aéropostale Pitch (NYSE:ARO)Financial Overview
17Sources: Capital IQ, Equity Research Reports
Short Stock Pitch and Valuation
Sensitivity Analysis
DCF Analysis: EBITDA Multiple Method
Total Enterprise Value Total Equity Value
Terminal EBITDA Multiple Terminal EBITDA Multiple
6.5x 7.0x 7.5x 8.0x 8.5x 6.5x 7.0x 7.5x 8.0x 8.5x
Discount 7.5% $90.9 106.0 $121.2 136.4 $151.5 Discount 7.5% $55.8 70.9 $86.1 101.3 $116.4
Rate 8.0% 88.8 103.7 118.7 133.6 148.6 Rate 8.0% 53.7 68.6 83.6 98.5 113.5
(WACC) 8.5% 86.7 101.5 116.2 130.9 145.7 (WACC) 8.5% 51.6 66.4 81.1 95.8 110.6
Implied Perpetuity Growth Rate Total Price Per Share
Terminal EBITDA Multiple Terminal EBITDA Multiple
6.5x 7.0x 7.5x 8.0x 8.5x 6.5x 7.0x 7.5x 8.0x 8.5x
Discount 7.5% 2.56% 2.89% 3.19% 3.45% 3.68% Discount 7.5% $0.71 0.90 $1.09 1.28 $1.47
Rate 8.0% 3.03% 3.37% 3.67% 3.93% 4.16% Rate 8.0% 0.68 0.87 1.06 1.25 1.43
(WACC) 8.5% 3.51% 3.85% 4.15% 4.41% 4.64% (WACC) 8.5% 0.65 0.84 1.03 1.21 1.40
DCF Analysis: Perpetuity Growth Method
Total Enterprise Value Total Equity Value
Terminal Perpetuity Growth Rate Terminal Perpetuity Growth Rate
2.00% 2.50% 3.00% 3.50% 4.00% 2.00% 2.5% 3.00% 3.5% 4.00%
Discount 7.5% $70.0 $88.6 $111.3 $139.7 $176.1 Discount 7.5% $34.9 53.5 $76.2 104.6 $141.0
Rate 8.0% 53.7 69.1 87.5 109.9 138.0 Rate 8.0% 18.6 34.0 52.4 74.8 102.9
(WACC) 8.5% 40.1 52.9 68.1 86.3 108.6 (WACC) 8.5% 5.0 17.8 33.0 51.2 73.5
Implied Terminal EBITDA Multiple Total Price Per Share
Terminal Perpetuity Growth Rate Terminal Perpetuity Growth Rate
2.00% 2.5% 3.00% 3.5% 4.00% 2.00% 2.5% 3.00% 3.5% 4.00%
Discount 7.5% (8.5x) (9.4x) (10.5x) (11.9x) (13.7x) Discount 7.5% $0.44 0.68 $0.96 1.32 $1.78
Rate 8.0% (7.8x) (8.6x) (9.5x) (10.6x) (12.0x) Rate 8.0% 0.24 0.43 0.66 0.95 1.30
(WACC) 8.5% (7.2x) (7.9x) (8.6x) (9.5x) (10.6x) (WACC) 8.5% 0.06 0.23 0.42 0.65 0.93
(1) Assumes net debt of $35.1mm as of 5/16/08.
(2) Assumes outstanding diluted shares of 79.100 million.
Aéropostale Pitch (NYSE:ARO)
$0.00 $1.00 $2.00 $3.00 $4.00
Multiples Method
Perpetuity Growth Method
Low - Median Median - High
Financial Overview
18Sources: Capital IQ, Equity Research Reports
Short Stock Pitch and Valuation
Valuation Summary
Target Price:
$0.97
Current Price:
$3.63
EBITDA Multiples Method
WACC 7.7%
Exit Multiple 7.5 x
2017E EBITDA $37.7
Terminal Value $282.4
Total Enterprise Value $120.4
Debt 136
Cash 100.9
Total Equity Value $85.3
Diluted Shares Outstanding 79.1
Fair Value Per Share $1.08
Current Price 3.63
Implied Upside -70%
Perpetuity Growth Method
WACC 7.7%
Perpetuity Growth Rate 3.00%
2017E UFCF $11.8
Terminal Value $261.23
Total Enterprise Value $103.4
Debt 136
Cash 100.9
Total Equity Value $68.3
Diluted Shares Outstanding 79.1
Fair Value Per Share $0.86
Current Price 3.63
Implied Upside -76%
Targeted Return
Current Share Price $3.63
Target Share Price
Multiples Method $1.08
Gordon Growth Method $0.86
Price Target Weighting
Multiples Method 50%
Gordon Growth Method 50%
Weighted Average Target Price $0.97
Equity Downside -73.3%
Dividend Yield 0.0%
Implied Return -73.3%
Aéropostale Pitch (NYSE:ARO)Financial Overview
19Sources: Capital IQ, Equity Research Reports
Short Stock Pitch and Valuation
Recommendation:Short Aéropostale at Market Price
73.3% Conservative Implied Return
Appendix
Short Stock Pitch and Valuation
Aéropostale Pitch (NYSE:ARO)
20
Aéropostale Pitch (NYSE:ARO)Appendix
21Sources: Capital IQ
Short Stock Pitch and Valuation
Historical Income Statement
Income Statement
For the Fiscal Period Ending 12 months
Jan-30-2010
12 months
Jan-29-2011
12 months
Jan-28-2012
12 months
Feb-02-2013
12 months
Feb-01-2014
LTM
12 months
Nov-01-2014
Revenue 2,230.1 2,400.4 2,342.3 2,386.2 2,090.9 1,914.9
Other Revenue - - - - - -
Total Revenue 2,230.1 2,400.4 2,342.3 2,386.2 2,090.9 1,914.9
Cost Of Goods Sold 1,251.2 1,369.2 1,560.5 1,601.0 1,522.5 1,394.5
Gross Profit 978.9 1,031.3 781.8 785.2 568.4 520.4
Selling General & Admin Exp. 593.3 637.4 652.3 693.1 703.2 689.2
Other Operating Exp., Total 593.3 637.4 652.3 693.1 703.2 689.2
Operating Income 385.7 393.9 129.6 92.1 (134.7) (168.9)
Interest Expense - (0.1) (0.4) (0.5) (0.9) (6.0)
Interest and Invest. Income 0.1 - - - - -
Net Interest Exp. 0.1 (0.1) (0.4) (0.5) (0.9) (6.0)
Other Non-Operating Inc. (Exp.) - - - - - -
EBT Excl. Unusual Items 385.8 393.8 129.1 91.7 (135.6) (174.9)
Restructuring Charges - - - - - (39.2)
Impairment of Goodwill - - - - - -
Asset Writedown (3.0) (0.7) (16.0) (32.6) (46.1) (66.6)
Legal Settlements - - - - (4.4) (4.4)
Other Unusual Items - (6.4) - - - -
EBT Incl. Unusual Items 382.8 386.7 113.1 59.0 (186.1) (285.1)
Income Tax Expense 153.3 155.3 43.6 24.1 (44.3) (21.8)
Earnings from Cont. Ops. 229.5 231.3 69.5 34.9 (141.8) (263.2)
Earnings of Discontinued Ops. - - - - - -
Extraord. Item & Account. Change - - - - - -
Net Income to Company 229.5 231.3 69.5 34.9 (141.8) (263.2)
Minority Int. in Earnings - - - - - -
Net Income 229.5 231.3 69.5 34.9 (141.8) (263.2)
($ in millions, except per share data)
Aéropostale Pitch (NYSE:ARO)Appendix
22Sources: Capital IQ
Short Stock Pitch and Valuation
Historical Balance SheetBalance Sheet
Balance Sheet as of:
Jan-30-2010 Jan-29-2011 Jan-28-2012 Feb-02-2013 Feb-01-2014 Nov-01-2014
ASSETS
Cash And Equivalents 347.0 265.6 223.7 231.5 106.5 109.2
Total Cash & ST Investments 347.0 265.6 223.7 231.5 106.5 109.2
Accounts Receivable - - - - - -
Other Receivables - - - 7.7 50.4 9.2
Total Receivables - - - 7.7 50.4 9.2
Inventory 132.9 156.6 163.5 155.5 172.3 211.1
Prepaid Exp. 21.0 24.5 47.2 45.3 47.4 48.0
Deferred Tax Assets, Curr. 21.7 13.6 7.4 - - -
Other Current Assets 7.4 9.3 - - - -
Total Current Assets 530.0 469.6 441.8 439.9 376.6 377.5
Gross Property, Plant & Equipment 457.7 548.5 602.3 583.1 592.7 -
Accumulated Depreciation (206.1) (249.3) (314.9) (320.3) (357.3) -
Net Property, Plant & Equipment 251.6 299.2 287.4 262.8 235.4 151.2
Goodwill - - - 13.9 13.9 13.9
Other Intangibles - - - 15.4 14.7 14.1
Deferred Tax Assets, LT 6.4 0.1 - - - -
Other Long-Term Assets 4.4 4.3 6.0 8.8 7.0 21.6
Total Assets 792.3 773.2 735.2 740.8 647.6 578.3
LIABILITIES
Accounts Payable 90.9 103.0 103.5 90.0 138.2 143.4
Accrued Exp. 99.6 75.4 26.1 29.1 23.5 22.0
Curr. Income Taxes Payable 26.9 10.0 1.3 13.1 0.7 -
Unearned Revenue, Current 24.6 27.7 27.9 29.6 27.8 17.0
Other Current Liabilities - - 34.4 41.8 50.1 60.3
Total Current Liabilities 241.8 216.1 193.2 203.5 240.4 242.7
Current Ratio 2.2 x 2.2 x 2.3 x 2.2 x 1.6 x 1.6 x
Long-Term Debt - - - - - 136.0
Pension & Other Post-Retire. Benefits 10.1 10.8 13.7 13.5 14.3 5.8
Def. Tax Liability, Non-Curr. - 7.5 - - - -
Other Non-Current Liabilities 105.9 106.2 118.9 113.5 112.2 89.9
Total Liabilities 357.8 340.6 325.8 330.5 366.9 474.5
Common Stock 1.4 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8
Additional Paid In Capital 171.8 195.4 206.7 216.1 231.2 244.9
Retained Earnings 922.8 389.8 459.3 193.3 51.5 (141.4)
Treasury Stock (654.5) (153.0) (256.6) - (1.6) (3.1)
Comprehensive Inc. and Other (7.0) (0.4) (0.8) 0.2 (1.2) 2.6
Total Common Equity 434.5 432.6 409.4 410.4 280.7 103.8
Total Equity 434.5 432.6 409.4 410.4 280.7 103.8
Total Liabilities And Equity 792.3 773.2 735.2 740.8 647.6 578.3
($ in millions, except per share data)
Aéropostale Pitch (NYSE:ARO)Appendix
23Sources: Capital IQ
Short Stock Pitch and Valuation
Historical Cash Flow Statement
Cash Flow
For the Fiscal Period Ending 12 months
Jan-30-2010
12 months
Jan-29-2011
12 months
Jan-28-2012
12 months
Feb-02-2013
12 months
Feb-01-2014
LTM
12 months
Nov-01-2014
Net Income 229.5 231.3 69.5 34.9 (141.8) (263.2)
Depreciation & Amort. 49.9 58.0 65.1 65.6 63.6 55.7
Amort. of Goodwill and Intangibles - - - 0.1 0.8 0.8
Depreciation & Amort., Total 49.9 58.0 65.1 65.7 64.4 56.5
Other Amortization 1.4 7.1 5.8 4.4 2.4 2.4
Asset Writedown & Restructuring Costs 3.0 0.7 16.0 32.6 46.1 97.1
Stock-Based Compensation 14.7 11.5 9.4 8.1 18.1 17.7
Tax Benefit from Stock Options (1.2) (5.1) (0.5) (0.6) - -
Other Operating Activities (13.2) 14.0 (1.4) (19.6) (11.9) (8.5)
Change In Inventories (5.6) (23.1) (7.1) 11.3 (17.9) 50.6
Change in Acc. Payable 13.2 11.9 0.5 (13.4) 48.9 (36.0)
Change in Inc. Taxes - (5.0) (14.2) (4.6) (43.7) 34.2
Change in Other Net Operating Assets 42.8 (37.5) (13.9) 26.1 (2.8) 2.8
Cash from Ops. 334.4 263.7 129.3 144.8 (38.4) (46.4)
Capital Expenditure (53.9) (100.8) (73.3) (72.3) (84.1) (37.2)
Cash Acquisitions - - - (25.2) (0.4) 0
Other Investing Activities - - - - - (2.2)
Cash from Investing (53.9) (100.8) (73.3) (97.5) (84.5) (39.4)
Total Debt Issued - - - - - 213.1
Total Debt Repaid - - - - - (75.5)
Issuance of Common Stock 10.5 7.0 1.5 0.7 0.2 0
Repurchase of Common Stock (174.3) (257.5) (100.1) (40.8) (1.6) (1.5)
Total Dividends Paid - - - - - -
Special Dividend Paid - - - - - -
Other Financing Activities 1.2 5.1 0.5 0.6 - (8.4)
Cash from Financing (162.6) (245.4) (98.2) (39.5) (1.4) 127.8
Foreign Exchange Rate Adj. 0.5 1.0 0.4 0 (0.8) (0.7)
Net Change in Cash 118.4 (81.4) (41.8) 7.8 (125.0) 41.2
($ in millions, except per share data)