財務管理理論與策略財務管理理論與策略

Tire City Inc. 個案討論

Presented by M9880105 梁雅珺 M9880207 郭歡緒

1.1. Evaluate Tire City’s financial health. Evaluate Tire City’s financial health. How well is the company performing?How well is the company performing?

除了對 Tire City 公司做財務評估外，還從Compustat 資料庫取得美國同業公司固特異(Goodyear)財務資料來做比較。

由於取得的資料有限最早年份只到 1998年，而無法獲得相同期間的資料，所以採用美國固特異公司較相近的 1998-1999年兩年平均值作為財務分析的比較。

而且 Tire City 公司在 1996 及 1997 年向銀行融資建廠，在財務報表上有較明顯的改變，且此兩年的財務報表也是預估報表，故準確性較低，因此採用1994-1995年來作為財務分析的比較。

財務比率分析可用來避免因比較不同規模的公司而衍生的問題，就是計算並比較財務比率分析，分為四大項：資本結構、償債能力、經營能力、獲利能力。

財務比率分析 Tire City Goodyear 解釋比較結果　 1994-95平均 1998-99平均 　

負債占資產比率 46.10% 64.49% 當負債比率越高，表示公司大多使用舉債來購買資產的比例越高，一旦週轉不靈就可能會倒閉，所以Goodyear 會比 TCI 更有可能倒閉的機會。

流動比率 197.89% 135.50% 用來檢定企業短期償債能力，流動比率越大表示償還流動性負債可能性越大，所以相較之下可得知 TCI 短期償債能力較大。

速動比率 132% 73.63% 速動比率是比流動比率更嚴格的流動性指標，更能衡量企業的緊急償付能力，若速動比率越高時，則短期債權人越有保障，公司也越不易陷入週轉不靈狀況，所以 TCI 的償債能力較大。

應收款項週轉率 6.5 次 (7) 6.2 次 (6) 可衡量應收帳款及應收票據的償還速度，若應收帳款周轉率越大，表示回收速度越快對公司運用越有利，所以 TCI 回收速度較快。

1.1. Evaluate Tire City’s financial health. Evaluate Tire City’s financial health. How well is the company performing?How well is the company performing?

1.1. Evaluate Tire City’s financial health. Evaluate Tire City’s financial health. How well is the company performing?How well is the company performing?

財務比率分析 Tire City Goodyear 解釋比較結果

　 1994-95平均

1998-99平均

　

應收帳款回天數 56 天 60 天 可衡量應收帳款及應收票據的償還速度，若應收帳款回天數越短，表示回收速度越快，所以 TCI 回收速度較快。

存貨週轉率 6.3 次 (6) 4.2 次 (4) 存貨周轉一次所需的時間，存貨周轉次數越快，平均售貨日數短，可以提高銷貨收入也能減少因存貨而產生的資金積壓成本及倉儲成本，所以 TCI 存貨所產生的壓力較少。

資產報酬率 (ROA)

14% 5.56% 衡量公司資產創造稅後純益的能力，越高表獲利能力佳經營績效良好，所以 TCI 明顯高於 Goodyear ，表示經營績效較好。

純益率 5% 3.64% 衡量銷售的獲利狀況，比率越高表企業獲利能力越佳，所以 TCI 獲利能力較佳。

2.Pro forma forecasts of TCI’s 1996 and 1997 income 2.Pro forma forecasts of TCI’s 1996 and 1997 income statements and year-end balance sheets statements and year-end balance sheets

採 用 銷 售 額 百 分 比 法 (percentage of sales approach)：

銷售額百分比法是將資產負債表上的各科目除以損益表上之銷貨收入，求得一「百分比」，再依未來的銷貨收入乘以各科目之百分比，可得預估資產負債表和損益表。

銷售百分比法是最常用的融資需求預測方法， 主要假設： 1.資產負債表與損益表中大部分的科目會隨著銷售 額的增加而呈同比例增加。 2.企業的淨利率及股利支付率保持不變。

2.Pro forma forecasts of TCI’s 1996 and 1997 income 2.Pro forma forecasts of TCI’s 1996 and 1997 income statements and year-end balance sheets statements and year-end balance sheets

所以在上述兩個假設成立下，銷售額百分比法就能準確預測資金的需求，計算步驟如下：

Step1：求算各科目與銷售額百分比 Step2：預測隨銷售額變動的科目餘額 Step3：處理不隨銷售額變動科目餘額 Step4：預測保留盈餘 Step5：估計額外資金需求 Step6：籌措額外資金

預估預估 19961996 年及年及 19971997 年損益表年損益表For Year Ending 12/31 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997INCOME STATEMENT 　

Net sales $16,230,000 $20,355,000 $23,505,000 $28,206,000 $33,847,200

Cost of sales $9,430,000 $11,898,000 $13,612,000 $16,403,227 $19,683,817

Gross profit $6,800,000 $8,457,000 $9,893,000 $11,802,723 $14,163,183

Selling,general,and administrative expenses $5,195,000 $6,352,000 $7,471,000 $8,931,848 $10,718,154

Depreciation $160,000 $180,000 $213,000 $213,000 $333,000

Net Interest expense $119,000 $106,000 $94,000 $111,197 $171,184

Pre-tax income $1,326,000 $1,819,000 $2,115,000 $2,546,678 $2,940,846

Income taxes $546,000 $822,000 $925,000 $1,104,421 $1,275,360

Net income $780,000 $997,000 $1,190,000 $1,442,257 $1,665,486

Dividends $155,000 $200,000 $240,000 $288,932 $333,653

預估預估 19961996 年及年及 19971997 年資產負債表年資產負債表For Year Ending 12/31 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997BALANCE SHEET 　Asset 　Cash $508,000 $609,000 $706,000 $846,180 $1,015,410Accounts receivable $2,545,000 $3,095,000 $3,652,000 $4,230,900 $5,077,050

Inventories $1,630,000 $1,838,000 $2,190,000 $1,625,000 $3,153,600 Total current assets $4,683,000 $5,542,000 $6,548,000 $6,702,080 $9,246,066Gross plant & equipment $3,232,000 $3,795,000 $4,163,000 $6,163,000 $6,563,000Accumulated depreciation $1,335,000 $1,515,000 $1,728,000 $1,941,000 $2,274,000Net plant & equipment $1,897,000 $2,280,000 $2,435,000 $4,222,000 $4,289,000 Total assets $6,580,000 $7,822,000 $8,983,000 $11,057,887 $13,745,072　 　Liabilities 　Current maturities of long-term debt $125,000 $125,000 $125,000 $125,000 $125,000Accounts payable $1,042,000 $1,325,000 $1,440,000 $1,791,647 $2,149,964Accrued expenses $1,145,000 $1,432,000 $1,653,000 $1,985,938 $2,383,112

Total current liabilities $2,312,000 $2,882,000 $3,218,000 $3,902,586 $4,658,076Long-term debt $1,000,000 $875,000 $750,000 $625,000 $500,000 Bank loan $361,967 $1,086,838 Common stock $1,135,000 $1,135,000 $1,135,000 $1,135,000 $1,135,000 Retained earnings $2,133,000 $2,930,000 $3,880,000 $5,033,325 $6,365,158 Total shareholders' equity $3,268,000 $4,065,000 $5,015,000 $6,168,325 $7,500,158 Total liabilities $ 6,580,000 $ 7,822,000 $ 8,983,000 $ 11,057,877 $ 13,745,072

3. Will Tire City be in a stronger or weaker 3. Will Tire City be in a stronger or weaker financial condition two years from now?financial condition two years from now?

在預估 1996和 1997年的財務報表後，以資本結構、償債能力、經營能力、獲利能力等財務比率來分析公司的財務狀況。

財務比率分析 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

負債占資產比率 50.33% 48.03% 47.71% 40.94% 37.53%

流動比率 202.55% 193% 203.48% 175.16% 203%

速動比率 132.05% 128.52% 135.42% 133.52% 134.24%

應收款項週轉率 6.38 次 (6) 6.58 次 (7) 6.44 次 (6) 6.5 次 (7) 6.5 次 (7)

應收帳款回天數 57天 55天 57天 56天 56天存貨週轉率 5.79 次 (6) 6.47 次 (6) 6.21 次 (6) 10.1 次

(10)6.1 次 (6)

資產報酬率 (ROA)

12.88% 13.51% 13.84% 14.05% 13.36%

純益率 4.8% 4.9% 5.1% 5.11% 4.92%

4. What would be the impact on TCI’s external 4. What would be the impact on TCI’s external funding needs as of the end of 1996 funding needs as of the end of 1996

估計額外資金需求 ( External Funds Needed ) ： 額外資金需求定義：當公司預期的銷售與基本假設帶入損益表，求出淨利 ( 損 ) 後，再調整資產負債表，但可能使資產負債表產生不平衡，其差額即為「額外資金需求」。

EFN 公式 = 必要增加的資產 - 自發性增加的負債 -增加的保留盈餘。

a. If inventory were not reduced by the end of 1996 ?

若假設 1996 年存貨未減少的情況下，與公司財務長原先預期的相比存貨數量會增加，所以銷售變動時，自發性資產的金額會增加，額外資金需求為正，則公司必須向外籌措資金。

b. If accrued expenses were to grow less than expected in 1996?

若應付費用的成長少於 1996 年預期，則銷售變動時，自發性負債的金額會下降，額外資金需求為正，則公司必須向外籌措資金。

4. What would be the impact on TCI’s external 4. What would be the impact on TCI’s external funding needs as of the end of 1996 funding needs as of the end of 1996

5. What would be the impact on TCI’s external 5. What would be the impact on TCI’s external funding needs as of the end of 1997 funding needs as of the end of 1997

a. If TCI depreciated more then 5% of the warehouse’s total cost in 1997?

若 1997年新倉庫總成本的折舊大於 5%，則淨利會減少，相對保留盈餘也會下降，所以必要增加的資產和保留盈餘所增加的淨額會下降；在預估報表中，額外資金需求會減少。

b. If TCI experienced higher price inflation in its revenues and operating costs then was originally anticipated in 1996 and 1997 ?

公司應考慮產品或勞務價格是否隨通貨膨脹而調整，在納入銷售與成本之估計中。若銷售與營運成本在 1996年和 1997年所預估的通貨膨脹成同比例增加，則淨利也會增加，但必須考慮到通貨膨脹增加幅度的不同。

C. If days receivable were reduced to 45 days , or days payables were increased to 45 days ?

若應收帳款天數減少為 45 天，會增加存貨轉換期間的天數，則公司擁有太多存貨使週轉率降低，故須注意存貨品質與管理能力，是否有滯銷的存貨。

若應付帳款期間增加為 45 天，會縮短現金轉換的天數，則累積資金的效率變好，反而較不需要利用舉債來融通資金，由於應付帳款期間增加，延後了帳款支付的時間，所以公司有較多的現金可運用。

所以如果應收帳款天數減少為 45 天，應付帳款期間增加為 45 天，則額外資金需求會下降。

5. What would be the impact on TCI’s external 5. What would be the impact on TCI’s external funding needs as of the end of 1997 funding needs as of the end of 1997

6.Suppose the proposed terms of the bank credit included 6.Suppose the proposed terms of the bank credit included a covenant that read as followsa covenant that read as follows ：： ”” The company must The company must maintain net working capital will be measured at the end maintain net working capital will be measured at the end of each fiscal year .”of each fiscal year .” Is TCI likely to be able to satisfy this Is TCI likely to be able to satisfy this covenant in both 1996 and 1997 ? covenant in both 1996 and 1997 ?

淨營運資本定義為：應收帳款 + 存貨 - 應付帳款1996 年： $4,364,697 + $1,625,000 –$1,791,647 = $4,198,0501997 年： $5,237,650 + $3,203,057 –$2,149,964 = $6,290,743

我們所估計的數據皆超過條款規定的”公司必須保持淨營運資本至少 400萬美元”，所以 TCI 在 1996 年和 1997 年能滿足這個條款。

7.As a lender , would you be willing to loan TCI 7.As a lender , would you be willing to loan TCI the funds needed to expand its warehouse the funds needed to expand its warehouse facilities and finance its growth ? Why or why facilities and finance its growth ? Why or why not ?not ?

由於在資本結構、償債能力、經營能力、獲利能力等財務比率來分析公司的財務狀況下， 1996年和1997 年預估財務報表所呈現的財務狀況比 1993年 -1995年實際報表稍佳，且與同業公司的財務比率相比也明顯較好。

若我們是銀行，會願意把資金借給 Tire City 公司擴建廠房。