2020 台灣產業發展願景與定位 中正大學演講
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Transcript of 2020 台灣產業發展願景與定位 中正大學演講
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2020
20091219
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SWOT2020*
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(1/4)2009-4.04%GDPX-M-0.66%-4.40%X-MGDP-0.66%-4.40%ICLCD*
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(2/4)ICLCD
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(3/4)70.97%ICT69.85% ICLCDODMLCDDRAMICT39.14%13.94%27.94%vs.vs.GDP*
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*////
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(4/4)BOP1.2.GDP
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20152020technology outlookinnovation outlookMega trends
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202020196514%Home Market 15-6520155074%/
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200828.9%22%16%199412.8%20087.6%ECFA*GDP
20033.5 35.3 2.6 25.9 0.9 9.4 6.4 63.7 0.1 1.0 20043.9 38.7 2.9 28.4 1.0 10.3 5.6 55.3 0.6 6.0 20054.0 38.2 2.9 27.8 1.1 10.4 3.9 37.7 2.5 24.1 20064.5 38.7 3.3 28.2 1.2 10.5 4.9 42.0 2.2 19.3 20074.7 39.4 3.4 28.6 1.3 10.8 4.9 40.9 2.3 19.7
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20092008-20202020GDP72,500GDP135,00022020201002006~20202011-202021-50showcase*
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GDP0.23316611.1GDP0.259922203.6 GDP0.671.093741.03GDP0.486,2133742.36GDP0.657,7294531.47GDP0.20848.323198GDP0.257.11110.8 157.72 2008*
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China EU Information Technology Standards research partnershipICT19923G 4G6*
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(1/3)Centre for Economics and Business Research2009GDP49.4%201245%CEBRUNDP200920097%6%5%3~4%
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(2/3)CSN40National Academies20091LCD*
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(3/3)good enough marketSony199FlipAppleiPhone99Tesla10.9Model S5.64Panasonic50100/
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U/*
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(1/2)201220091220202050/*
20-20-2020082020199020%20%20%2020199025%20202005202015%202020054000 (American Clean Energy and Security Act, ACE Act)2020200517%
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(2/2)2009*Japans TargetsTechnology Development and DiffusionFramework to move towards a Low Carbon SocietySupport for regional and citizens initiative
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SWOT
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SWOTICTICIC*
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SWOT\ICT*
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SWOTB2BB2C*
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SWOT/FTA*
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2020
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++B2Bvalue capturerSolutionA-Team+++A-TeamB2BP2PB2C
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20202015A Harvester of Experience Economyvalue capturer\\showcase *
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value capture70.97%ICT69.85%ICTICTWiiX-Box
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2015200520152025
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20202015ABCD
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*2020/ (1/3)F4KPI
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*2020/ (2/3)KPI:
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2020/ (3/3)DRAMLCDKPI:
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*2020
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2020I20196514%home market / A-team /
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2020IIGDP5% ODM /
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2020III2020199020%200590% now or never /
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(1/2)scale up////*demanding needs /
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(2/2)*solutions/solutions
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(1/2)ECFAECFA/ *
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(2/2)LCDLCD TVLCDsolutionliving labshowcase*
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1.2008Global Insight Inc2.GDP*
GDP=C+IP+G+IG+X-M2007100%=59+17+12+5+73-662008100%=62+16+13+5+74-70
2009(f)100%=62+11+13+6+64-5612.1=7.5+1.3+1.6+0.7+7.7-6.7-4.04%=0.12%-4.40%+0.37%+0.53%-0.66%
20064.1 2.8 2.9 2.0 11.6 7.0 4.80 8.4 5.2 5.8 5.1 5.4 20074.0 2.0 2.6 2.3 13.0 6.4 5.70 7.8 5.1 6.3 4.8 7.2 20082.2 1.1 0.7 -0.7 9.0 2.4 0.06 1.1 2.2 4.6 2.6 4.6 2009(f)-2.6 -3.0 -2.4 -6.8 6.9 -2.9 -4.5 -7.7 -3.3 -2.2 -3.0 -0.1
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(1/2)*GDP20062008 CIER2009/06
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(2/2)GDP() ICTICTICT*2006 CIER2009/06
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B200853.11%*1:AABB2:A B
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*BOP()
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2015*IEK(2007)
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