2014 경제·산업 전망_POSRI_2013.11.27

1. POSRI (13-2) 2013 11

2. Executive Summary 2014 3.1% (2.5%) . 2014 Upside Scenario (15%) 4.3%4.1% 4.0% 3.1% 2.5% 2.5%Base Scenario (60%) -1.9% '09'10'11'12'13 '14 - - , Downside Scenario (25%)-1.5%'08- G20 - 3.1%1.7%'07 , - - (Linked Risks) - - , , 4 < > < > 30( )(2005=100)20104() 96 ()-20 ()'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '1310.2%7.2%10~12 13~18< >-30 8812.792 12.110 015% , 0%100-1030%13.113.7 , , i242% 183% 20072014e 3. 2014 3.1% (2.5%) . 2013 , . , , , , 2014 2014 , , , , 60()(, %), 1010988557() PMI6 454()BCI** BCI, OECD Business Confidence Index23 2OECD ()013 140-20 10.110.711.111.712.112.713.1 65045(, %, 6 )11.113.7ii11.712.112.7 13.113.7 4. . 2014 2.6% 2014 , , , 4 , 2014 1.2% 2014 7% , 2014 5% . , ASEAN . , 2.5% (%)2012201320142012201320142.52.53.16.25.35.51.21.01.85.05.15.42.21.72.66.86.66.1-0.6-0.60.72.72.83.62.02.01.20.92.52.55.75.86.34.82.13.89.37.67.54.95.06.03.24.55.13.41.93.0 ( ) MENA () iii 5. , (2014 3.3%) , 3.0% , 2014 5.5% , , SOC , 2014 2013 . / . / , 1,070 . , (3) OECD () CSI 101208115611010410502100095-290-48550(, %)(, %)40 30 20-10 -20 () OECD()-30 -40 20052007200920112013 CSI CSI 2010iv201120122013 6. , 2014 , 2014 , , , 2014 , , 2014 , () 250 240238218()-2.2%1.3%0.6%-8.3%23122822022420%28.026.125.526.513.112.913.513.312.512.612.512.3 '13.216'14.210 20040%( )230 ( )3%190-8%-4%-1%1%4%1800%-20%'12. '13. '14. v 7. ( %, , $/bbl)2012201320142.01.93.32.63.53.23.31.71.72.42.03.03.03.0-1.9-8.36.9-0.76.05.05.5-2.24.85.65.21.71.31.4()-1.30.64.92.78.110.19.0()-0.9-2.92.3-0.310.012.211.04812983126102502004503.23.43.13.23.03.13.02.21.31.71.41.92.22.0(3)3.12.72.92.83.13.53.3/ 1,127110410861,095107910621,070()109105106105108109108vi 8. . 2014 ............................................................................. 1 . ............................................................................................................................ 14 1. ........................................................................................................................... 15 2. ........................................................................................................................... 19 (1) .......................................................................................................................... 19 (2) .............................................................................................................. 21 (3) MENA ............................................................................. 23 (4) CIS .............................................................................................................. 27 (5) ...................................................................................................................... 30. ............................................................................................................................ 32 . .......................................................................................................................... 43 1. .................................................................................................................... 44 2. ....................................................................................................................... 46 3. ........................................................................................................................... 49 4. ........................................................................................................................... 51 5. ....................................................................................................................... 53 . ....................................................................................................................... 55 1. ........................................................................................................................... 56 2. ................................................................................................................................ 58 3. ................................................................................................................................ 60 4. ................................................................................................................................ 62vii 9. . 2014 , 2014 3.1% (2.5%) . 2014 , , , , 2014 3.3% , , 1. .................................... 2 2. .................................. 121 10. . 2014 1. , 2014 , . , 60()(, %)10 9 855 , . OECD OECD+6(, , , , , ) 2013 8 100 . . JP PMI 12 50 , OECD .7() PMI65054()BCI*3452OECD ()1400 10.110.711.111.712.112.713.113.7 . 2~3% , . 2011 2013 . : BCI, OECD Business Confidence Index : OECD, Bloomberg , . 9 10 3% , . . 8 ( ) 4.7% , 2012 4 5.2% ., 10(, %, 6 )8 6 42 013 -2 11.111.712.112.7 : 13.113.7 , , , . . , . , . 2 11. . 2014 , , , , 130(GDP %)120 110100 90 80 70 2001200320052007200920112013 , 2010 2013 2008 . 2007 128% , , 1 104% . , . 2010 , , . : IMF 47()(GDP %)(%)()453.5 3.0 2.5432.041 1.5 39 37 35 20051.0 0.50.0 2007200920112013 : , , : IMF 250()()4.0 () 2003.6 (, )1503.21002.8 502.4 02.0 20102011 : , IMF201220132010 , , , , . . , . . . . FDI . . 2013 6 . . , . 5 . 3 12. . 2014 ( ) 2013 5 (tapering) , . 5 53.8 8 67 20% , 14% .(2013.1.1=100)125 120115 110 105100 95 13.113.313.513.713.913.11 : () 3.0 9 . (K. Basu) , .(%p)2.5 (10),2.0 (yoy),1.5 1.0VAR , . FDI .0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0-1.5 0123456789 : (10) 1%p : , . , . 1 8.2 42%() 58%65%35%()27.66.76.649%46%51%54% 6.56.344%60%6.242%56%40%58%3 4.9 31%4.9 79%69% 21%4.2 51% 49% 1. : , , , , , 9 2. : GDP , 2 : 4 13. . 2014 , - . 250200 150 100 50 0 20052007200920112013 : policyuncertainty.com, 2014 2011 8 . 2 2013 10 16 , GDP 0.4~1.0% . Policyuncertainty.com 10 2013 174 . . , . , . 2014 11 . 700(%)()13 ()12 ()6001150010 400 93008200100 2007 , (ECB) . ECB , . 2013 , .76 2009 : (ECB)20112013 , EU . , . , , .5 14. . 2014 , , , , , : GDP 9.9% , : 29%, 24% IMF, 13 2.0% 14 1.2% KIEP, 13 1.8% 14 1.4% /, 100 12 LNG 24.5% (6). 3.5 : , 2014 , , . / 20% , . 2013 3 () 1.9% , 4 . () . . . . , . 2014 4 5% 8% , . , : , , 4 . , . . . , . , . 6 15. . 2014 , , 2014 1.7%(13) 2.6%(14) , 2% -0.6% 0.7% : , 2014 10.6% 8% 7.7 7.6 7.5%(07~11 )121314e7.8% FDI 5.1% 3.2 4.5 12, 5% 6.212 : 1314e5.9% 5.3 5.5%1314e . 2014 2% . . . . 2013 2 9 2014 . , , . , 2014 . . . 2014 1% .2.0% 1.2% , 2014 , 2014 . . 2014 7% . , 5% , . , . , 2.5% . 7 16. . 2014 (Linked Risks) 2014 , (local) , . ASEAN , . < > 30( )(2005=100)20104()100 10 0 -1096 () ()-2092 -308812.112.713.113.7 , < > 30% 15% , 0% '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 10.2% 10~12 13~18242%183% , 20072014 , 7.2%< > , . 2014 (Linked Risks) , .2014e : 2014 . , . , .2014 Upside Scenario (15%) 4.3%4.1%4.0% 3.1% 2.5% 2.5% Base Scenario (60%) -1.9% '09'10'11'12'13'14 - - , Downside Scenario (25%)-1.5%'08- G20 - 3.1%1.7%'07 , : 8 - - 17. . 2014 , 2000 , . , . . , . IMF , 2008 GDP 2.2% 2016 1.0% , , , . , . . 1990 . 2012 . () . . , . 3 ( GDP %)20(, %, 6 )152101+500+ -1-32012 -5-10-2-15 199820022006 2010-2020142000 : IMF20022004200620082010 : 92012 18. . 2014 2. , 2014 3.3% OECD () 50(, %)10(, %)40830620 10402-100-20 () OECD()-30 -40 2005200720092011-2 -42013 : OECD, 120 115 110CSI CSI100 2014 . 2008 . , 2014 . 105 . OECD . , 2013 . . . .95 90 852010201120122013 : (CSI) . 2002 . 2013 . (/)3.3 3.23.63.3 3.1 3.33.3 2.62.321.5'13 1/43/4'14 1/43/4'12 '13 '142014 (2013 2.6%, 2014 3.3%) 2014 2 2% 3% . . 2014 . :10 19. . 2014 2013 . 2013 4 99.6 9 101 , BSI 12 66 11 76 . . 2013 . 100% 31.6%, 13.2% . , 0~5% , , . , . . 2012 . 2012 , 1 . 2010 . , 1~9 15.1% (1.4%), (-1.0%), (13.3%) . , , , . , . 13 10.5%2.6% 7.9%13.2% 10.5% 10.5% 5.3% -2.6%2.6% 31.6%-7.9% 0.0%13.2% -2.6%2.6% 60(, %, 6 ) 150 40 30 2010 0 -10 2010 : : 11201120122013 20. . 2014 GDP 164% 132% . .136%120% 91%90%82%76%OECD , , GDP . . : 2012, 2011 : Bloomberg, () 12 ( )10 7.98220%10.7200% 180%192%6160% 4.14140%129% 110%2120%0100% / : 2012 18% 16%10%6% , 13 , . : 7% , . . 2 1 . 129% 192% . .(1) (10)8% 4% . . .4%4% 1% : 2013 : 12 21. . 2014 2013 , . . 3 . . 25% , . , . 2013 1~9 49.8%, 34.9% , 15.1% . 1%p 4.3%p, 4.0%p, 1.7%p . . . (CSI) 2011 . 2012 6.1% , 2.7% , (/*100) 2012 78.9 80 . (GNI) 1% 0.97% , 2008 3 0.8% . . (KDI, ) Cobb-Douglas , , 3% . 20(%)3 15 10 5 0'82.2Q~'88.1Q : 10.7%'90.4Q~'97.2Q : 7.7%'01.3Q~'07.1Q-5 : 4.7%3% ?-10 19821986199019941998 : , 13200220062010 22. . , 2014 3.1% (2.5%) . , . . . , 2014 7% , 5% . , . , 2.5% 1. ..................................... 15 (1) .......................................... 15 (2) ..................................... 17 (3) .......................................... 18 2. ..................................... 19 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5).......................................... 19 ............................ 21 MENA..... 23 CIS ............................. 27 ...................... 3014 23. . 1. (1) 2013 . GDP 5GDP (, %)10 PMI 51.8 , 10 PMI 55.4 54.4 .4, 3 211 3 GDP 2.8%() 3 , GDP 3 2 1.5% .1 0 -1-2 '11.1Q3Q'12.1Q3Q'13.1Q3Q : BEA (2001=100)(%)Case-Shiller () 207240 22010.0 ()1110 9200 1807.3 81607 1611401374.41206 51004 03060913.10 : BLS, FRB , 10 7.3% 10 80 () 20 . (FED) 5 . 30% 850 . .($ ) 706666 65 60 55 6 19 , .5450 4540 35 30 25 209000 : BLS, flow of funds081215 24. . 10(GDP , %)(GDP , %) ()5120 100()80060 40-520 -10 IB 3 . ( 10/31) , .0 19901995200020052010 : 2013 IMF : IMF (10) 42013 .()(%)()85 10 167 16 , 240 . 11 .3802752014 2.6% 70 . 10 130bp .1 11.111.712.112.713.113.7 : () 1413 1.7% 2.6% : (f)2.4%2.8% . . . . 2014 2.6% . 16 25. . (2) . ( ) 40( , %p)35251510, . , , . , .50 2008 200920102012 , , . , (ECB) , . 9 , 11 ECB 0.25% . . 4(, , , ) 2013 5.85% 11 3.84% 2%p .3020 201120122013 : Bloomberg2014 6100(, %)80 460() 4022000 -20-2-40 -60-4 -6 2005() 2007 : Bloomberg200920112013-80-100 10 (PMI) 51.3 , 4 (50) , 10 (ZEW) . 8 (OECD) 100.6 4 , . 2 9 . 2014 1 . , , . . 17 26. . (3) 2014 . 2 () 15( %) 4 ()102 5 0 2013 4 . 2013 1 1.0% 2 3.8% . . 10 15.8% . IMF 2013 2.0% , 6 .0-5()-2-10 -15-4'11.1Q3'12.1Q3'13.1Q3Q , 2013 . 4 8,438 1979 . : (, %) 20() 20 ()10 30 9 16.5% , 9,343 15 .10 ()00-10 .-10() -20-20''12.1357911'13.135710 : (%)11 GDP 13(f)14(f)2.02.01.2 : 2014 . 2014 4 5% 8% 2 . . 2014 2013 1.2% . 100 . 18 27. . 2. (1) 3 7.8% 3 . 10'12.3Q'12.4Q'13.1Q'13.2Q'13.3Q7.8%86 4.3% 3.5%4 2-0.1%0 GDP-23 7.8% 4 7.9% 2 GDP 3 7.8% . 3 3.5%p, 4.3%p, -0.1%p , . 3 7.7%, (7.5%) . 10 (PMI) 51.4 (50) 4 18 . HSBC PMI 10 3 . : CEIC , , (%) 30'12 '13.1'13.'13.1~32520.620.220 1514.312.9108.07.95 : CEIC3 , , . . 3 13.3% 13.0% . 6 13% , . 3 20.3% 3 20.2% 20% . , , . 3 3.9% 2 3.8% . 9 -0.3% 19 28. . . (%) 10 (CPI) 3.2% 8 . (3.5%) .10 CPI8 . 10 5.6% 2 . 1~10 7.6% , 0.5%, 6.9%, ASEAN 10.9% 7% .PPI6 4 2-4-6 : CEIC 9753'13.1911753'12.1911753'11.10 -2, . , . , , . . . 7.5% : 2014 - . 11 18 3 10 12 3 . 7.5% . 7% , .20 29. . (2) , , 2014 5% (GDP %)0-1 -2 -3-4 -5 -6 -7-8-9 2007200820092010201120122013 : Bloomberg, 2013~14 1 2009 4.4% . 2.4% . . . 2013 54 5 8 68.8 . 1%p . 9 10% . S&P . , 2014 65(%) ()6010 955850745640 20095 2010 : : Bloomberg2011201220132012 (GAAR) FDI 9 2016 . . , (9) . . , . 21 30. . ASEAN . 2014 , . 2014 (7%) 5% . ( 6 9 ) . 15% . . . , 2012 ., . (2013.1.1=100)125120 115 110 105 10095 13.113.313.513.713.913.11 : Bloomberg 9(, %)87 6, , ASEAN . , . 2012 6.8% , 1 7.7%, 2 7.5% . , . GDP 14% . FDI 5% . 2014 .54 3 2 1 0 200520062007 : Bloomberg200820092010201120122013 2011 4 , 2 98 . 2014 , 5% . 22 31. . (3) MENA 2014 6% (%) 9 876.16 57.7 6 2014 , 2013 2014 , 6% . IMF 2014 2013 5 5.7% 6% . 6.5% . (FRB) . , 50% , 1 .5.3 65.554.94 , 2% 32 1 0 2011201220132014(p) : 2014 , , , , 7~8% . , .13-14 9.6%9.5%9.3% 8.8%DR 8.4%8.3% , DR , .8.0%7.6% 7.2%7.0%7.0% : African Development Bank . . . , . 23 32. . , FDI . FDI (FDI) 2011 400 . 2014 6% . 5 160 , 5 200 . FDI 2012 70 , 52 , 46 , DR 33 . FDI (12) 7,029 () 5,218 , 2014 2014 .4,572 3,3123,295 -DR : UNCTAD 2014 2013 . 6% . , , , . . , (GDP %)12(%)10 810.1 7.966.845.822011 2013 2014 .0 -2-1.3-4 2011-2.8 2012 : IMF, World Bank-3.1 2013-3.0 2014(p) . , , . 24 33. . MENA MENA 2013 2.1% 2014 3.8% 2013 , MENA . IMF MENA 2013 3.1% 2.1% . 2014 3.8% . 2013 3~5% , 2014 .MENA (%) 65.55 44.84.04.3 3.8 3.72.73 1.621.9 2.110 20102011201220132014 : 14 MENA 76.36 5544.4 3.93.73.8321.310 UAE , . 2014 10.1% , , . 8.4% . FDI 4.8%, IT 4.5% . 3.5% . 2014 2.6% MENA . 'Country Development Plan(2011-2014)' . 2014 . : 25 34. . MENA . MENA (%) 1412.31210.88(GDP %)6.6(%)6 3.44 23.2 1.50.70.40 20102011MENA 2011 9% . 2014 2013 12.3% 10.3% . . 2014 42.3% . 2014 , . , , 2014 10.3% .10.39.310 20122013 (3.8%), UAE(2.5%), (4.0%), (2.5%), (3.2%) . , .2014 : MEED, 2013GCC 2014 , 2014 GCC GCC .655.0%4.4% 3.9%4 33.3%3.5%2.6%2 10 : IMF, 2013UAE 2014 4.4% , , , , 1,500 .UAE 2018 250 . 2014 232 , , , . 2017 3570 , , . 2014 50 2018 200 . 26 35. . (4) CIS , 2014 . 3% . 2013(E)2014(F)IMF1.53.0World Bank1.83.1 1.83.0Sberbank()1.82.11.9 2013 1% 2014 2013 . , . 2012 5,280 2013 5,114 / , 2014 . . .3.0 3% : , IMF, WB, , Sberbank /, (%)(%)610 958()47 635 24/GDP()132 02011 -1 2013 . , Northern Stream , APEC 2011 , 2012, 2013 . 2014 .2012201320141/GDP() 0 : , IMF, WB, , Sberbank 20% 2013 5% . 2013 , , . 27 36. . , FDI (10 ) 500(10 ) 75()490704806547046060FDI()450 44055430504204541040040 2011201220132014 : , Sberbank, , / . 3~5% . . . . 5, 6.1% GDP 67% 4 2013 , 4 2013 6.1% . . , , . , 5 2013(E)2014(F)5.05.27.06.512.210.46.85.87.46.55 6.36.1 : : , IMF 2013 (Kashagan) . 2014 . , . 2013 2014 IT, . 28 37. . 5 13 /GDP (%) 6 43.7853.10321.1210 -2 -4-2.242-6 -8-10 : IMF , , , , 2013 0.5%p 6.5% .-8.258 4 2013 (Galkynysh) 2013 12% 2014 10% . , , , .29 38. . (5) , , GDP 80($)8(%)60404GDP ()20 00-20 -40-4() -60 -80-8'080'9'10'11'12'13 . 2000 , . , , FDI , . , . : , 2.5% FDI 100($)($)FDI500804006030040200201000'09'10'11'13.'12 : IMF, 61.857.246.141.439.6 (%) 1413.940.544.646.520092010201113.4 15.4 22.8200013.529.32005 , 1 . 1 , 2000 , . , . 6 12 . .1 : IMF, , (2014) (2016) . 30 39. . , . . , , . 6 , . 2014 ., 14 (%) 108 6 4 2 '11'12'13'14 : , , . , . 60% . , (NSA) . .(PA) vs. Brazil2 .40 5 ,450 , , 2 .01 710 653 2 .092 ,430 4 .6%1 .981 .8%GDP11-'12 FDI : * : , , , , (, , ) FTA . . . 31 40. . 2014 3.3% , : 3.0% : 2014 , : SOC , : 2014 . / : 1,070 . : (3) 3% 1. ........................................... 33 2. // ......................... 35 3. .................................... 37 4. .................................... 39 5. .................................... 4032 41. . 1. 2013 1 2013 1 . 2013 , , . 2013 0.6% 3 2.8% . 1 1.5%() 2 2.3%, 3 3.3% . . 103 , 101.2 10110199.1 99.09997 95'12.14'12.710'13.1479 : 20-30-2010'13.3Q '13.2Q 0 -10 0 '1 -10 1. -20/-304Q'07.3Q 1020 2013 6 9 4 100 . 2013 4 . 2014 ./ /30 , . 6 7 99 . 30 , 2013 . 2013 3 10% . 2014 . .: 33 42. . 2014 GDP 3.3% 2013 100 . 9 10 92.5 . . 2014 120 , ICT 2013 10% . , 8 .1008060 40 '12.14710'13.14710 : 3.3% GDP 15(%)10 5.0503.1 3.31.4GDP ()-5 '10.1Q'11.1Q'12.1Q: '13.1Q 2014 . . , .'14.1Q4Q GDP 2013 3 3.3% 4 3 . , 3 1.1% , 4 . . 2014 1 . . , GDP . 2014 GDP 3.3% .34 43. . 2. 2014 3.0% . SOC 2013 . . 2014 . . . 110(, %)(=100)()1061510105 102 2.45 8 9 -1.5% . 9 2.1% . , 9 .100 0 ()-1.595-5 '12.1471013.1479 10 : , (%) 1213(f)14(f)1.72.03.03.23.23.0: , 8 2 30 40 3% . 7% . , 2014 3.0% 3% . . SOC . . 3.0% 2013 3.2% .35 44. . 2014 , , 3 2013 , . , 2013 . 2014 . 14 4(, %) 20.8 0.70 -2-1.8 -2.8-4 '12.14710'13.14710 : , 1113(f)14(f)2.21.42.0: 10 -0.5% 9 12 . / . 2% (%) 2 0% 2013 10 0.7% . 1999 7 0.3% 14 . , . 2.6% .2014 , 2013 1.4% 2.0% . .36 45. . 3. , 2013 5 . 3 1.8% . GDP 2013 (1~3) 9.3% (09~13) 9.5% . 45%12%() 30%11% GDP ()15%10%0%9%-15%8% . 2013 7 49% . 8 . BSI (100) (10.1~13.11) 98 .'10.1Q3'11.1Q3'12.1Q3'13.1Q3 : 120% BSI ()15%80%10%40%5%0%-5%-80% () , . . . , .0%-40% -10%-120%-15% 12.1 12.4 12.7 12.10 13.1 13.4 13.7 13.10 : , , BSI : () 13 -0.7%(f)-8.2%6.9%14(f) 5.5% 5.5% 2014 . . . . , . : 37 46. . SOC . 12% ()18%()17%8%16% 4%15%() 0%14% , 3 8.4%, 2.7% . GDP 12.9% 13.5% . SOC . 3 12% 23.6 3 . 6 . 3 -9% , . 4 .13%-4%GDP ()12%-8%11%-12%10% '10.1Q3'11.1Q3'12.1Q3'13.1Q3 3 . 3 11 ~12 . : 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50%20% () SOC 15% 10% 5% 0% . SOC . .-5% -10%()-15% -20%'10.1Q3'11.1Q3'12.1Q3'13.1Q3 : , , BSI : () 13 3.9%(f)5.2%2.6% : 14(f) 1.4%2014, 1.4% . SOC 1 . () . . BBB 14 4.5 . (41) . 38 47. . 4. . 3 2.8% 0.1% . 3 33 110 . ()30% 25%() () ()20%8 615%410%25% 0% . . 3 , , 8.3%, 9.4%, 1.3% 2 . IT, , .0-5%-2 ()-10% -15%'12.1'12.5'12.9-4'13.1'13.5'13.9 : () 1351401331401354314144137433637141516153034313230131211121312EU234'13.1Q232013 . . 2012 7 5 3 1.5% .42 34 44494331323437161514313213'12.1Q : () () 13 (f)14(f)2.7%0.64.8%9.0%-0.3%-2.92.4%11.0%4442002444122014 400 2014 , . , . . IT, , , , , . 610 450 . : 39 48. . 5. 13 (:%) (1/1-6/28) (7/1-11/6) (1/1-6/28)13.7 5.6-0.9 -0.91.810.6-0.75.6 -5.3-4.4-0.7 -1.3-5.31.5 -3.8 1.5 -3.83.0(:%)14.410.613.73.0 (7/1-11/6)-4.4-1.37.314.47.31.8 0.6-7.3 7 . 9 100 11 90 .-7.3 : / / ()() 1.40106 /1.37()100 2013 6 . , 3.8% . , 9 3 .0.6 103 , 971.34941.3191/88()1.2885 . , , . . 204 . .1.25'13.1'13.3'13.5'13.7'13.9'13.11 : 2014 /, / 13 (f)14/1.321.301.311.27/9798.5100101: / , : . . 2014 4 . , , . 40 49. . 400 / 2013 600 . . 2014 / 2009 . / / 1,500 1,400 1,300/(100)1,200 /1,1001080 10651,000 '12.710'13.18 '411 : / () 13(f)1,0951,070: /100 1,100 / . 1,080 . 100 1,000 5 /100 1,000 ./, 2014 1,070 14(f) (f)// . 9 1,100 10 1,056 . 1,060 .(f)1,0791,0622014 2013 . 400 . 1,000 . / 2013 1,095 1,070 .41 50. . 2014 , 2013 5 2.5% . 2014 3% . . 4.54.0 (3, AA-) 3.53.252.913.0 (3)2.832.5 2.552.0 '12.14710'13.14710 : , 3% (%) 121314(f)(3)3.12.73.3(AA-)3.83.14.0: 2013 8 2.94% 9 9 2 . . , , .2014 . 2014 . 3.3%, 4.0% . .42 51. . 100 () , , , 2014 2014 1. .................................... 44 2. .................................... 46 3. ....................................... 49 4. ....................................... 51 5. .................................... 5343 52. . 1. 2014 4 (/) Dubai120 110100WTI 90 80EU, 70 12.0112.04, 12.0712.1013.01 13.0413.0713.10 : Bloomberg, WTI 400()(/)115 110WTI ()3508 113 () 11 100 . 10 (IAEA) , . , , 1304 10530010025095 4 . 1~9 0.4% . 9 2.4% . , 10 7% . , (WTI) 10% . 10 15 6 IAEA , . ( ) 3 .90200 () ()150 10085 80 7512.112.412.7: 12.1013.113.413.713.10 . , . OPEC 3 2% . 44 53. . 2014 2014 100 2014 . OECD , PMI . , . , 2014 . . . 2013 3 5.2% . 9 7.6%(8 6.2%) .EIA / 103(%)(/) ()93 () / ()102 10192100.7% 100.3%100.4% 100.2% 100.3%100.3%91EIA 2014 88 . OPEC 7 48 , OPEC . OPEC . (EIA) 2014 / 100% .($/bbl) 100 10090 99.6%99.5%998998 '13.1Q234'14.1Q234 : EIA 201320143 4 1 2 3 4 Brent 110 108 108 110 111 112 112 111 Dubai 106 106 105 107 108 109 109 108 WTI 1069998 : 99100 101 101 1002014 (Dubai) 100 . , . , . 45 54. . 2. Super Cycle 2 2000 , . 2000 4 Super Cycle . 10 10% , . , , , , , 19 CRB 2000 2 . . 2008 2 , Super Cycle . , 7% , , . , . (normalizing) , Super Cycle . 100(2011.1.1=100)13.11 Super Cycle , 1900 4 Super Cycle Super Cycle 500 400 CPICRB2 Super Cycle 4 Super Cycle 20 15 1030052000 3 Super Cycle 100 0 1930-5 -10194019501960197019801990: CPI , 2000 CPI CRB : Bloomberg46200010 13 2010-15 55. . , .2013 , . . 2014 Super Cycle , , , ., 2014 (exodus) 9,000700($/)()8,0005007,000300 ()()6,00010013.112013 1~10 7.5% 7,350$/ . 2013 (power cable) 2.9% . 2 Grasberg , Codelco , Bingham Canyon , 10 . , . 2014 , 4.1% . (destocking) . , (exodus) . : Bloomberg 2,400 ($/)160()()2,2001202,000801,800401,600 : Bloomberg, ()013.112013 6% 1,800$/ . , , , 3.8% . . (International Aluminum Institute, IAI) , , , . 47 56. . , , , . 25,000 ($/)240 ()()20020,000 160 15,0001202014 ., 2013 1~10 13.1% 15,216$/ . STS 4.6%(12 8.2%, 12.1%) . , 0.2% . Glencore Xstratas Falconbridge Dominicano 1 , . 18 .() 10,0008013.11 : Bloomberg2014 , , STS 6.3% . ., 2,4001300($/) ()()2,200 2013 2.0% . . (TCs, treatment charges) 2013 4.5% . Glencore Xstratas Lady Laretta 33% .1100 2,000 900 1,800 () 1,600 : Bloomberg70013.112014 , , . 9 . .48 57. . 3. 2013 2013 , 130$ 2013 2 126$ 1 23$ 3 133$ , 10 132$ . 11 12 , , 2013 130$ .2013 , 9% 8050%7040%60 () ()504030% 20%3010%20 0%10 ()-10%'11.1 3 5 7 9 11 '12.1 3 5 7 9 11 '13.1 3 5 7 90 : worldsteel ($/)200170 140134110 8050'10.1 3 5 7 9 11 '11.1 3 5 7 9 11 '12.1 3 5 7 9 11 '13.1 3 5 7 920 -10 , . 1~9 5.8 9.7% . 2012 3.2% 3 . 2013 . 7 PMI 50 , .: CFR Fe 62% : Platts2013 Vale 1 . Vale , FMG Chichester 3,500, BHP B Orebody , Rio Tinto Brockman 3 5 . , 3 9 2,700 4 .49 58. . 2014 2014, 2014 , , 3% . , 7% . . 2013 , 3~4% 8 . , 14 13~14 VALECARAJAS+40 2013. HOPE DOWN 2013 RIO TINTO PILBARA 283 2013. () 40 1535 50BHPBJimblebar2013.1235FMG Kings2013.4Q14 2Q 40 165 2013 2014 . 3 FMG , Vale Carajas 4 , Rio Tinto 5, BHP B 3,500, FMG 4 1.6 . Vale Carajas 4 100% . 2014 100% 2014 1 . , . : ($/)17814 160 14213713313213.14.11811.12.124: CFR Fe 62% : Platts 2014 120$ . , 3~4% Oversupply . 2014 , 120$ . . 50 59. . 4. , . . . 9 11.7 3% . 15% 10% 5% 9 9.7% . 90% ( ) . . , . 9 6.2% 5,800 , 49% 5,470 . , .0% '13.123456789-5%: : Bloomberg 250%200%150% , 15% 100% 50% 0% '13.1-50%23456789: : Bloomberg ($/) 328295 220118'0598'06131'07191145'08'09'10'11: Platts. : , FOB '12150'13 . , 1~9 1.2 1.05 15.5% . 27% 3,600 . , . 7 133 10 148 15 . . 9 150 2012 191 . 2000 115 .51 60. . , 160 Spot ($/) 250 220 190 160 130 975311'13.19753'12.1100: , FOB : Platts Spot ($/) 1661501604Q '14.1Q 2Q3Q152155142'13.1Q 2Q3Q: , FOB : Platts , . . , . . () 3% . . 2000 , . , . , , . . , 135 . , . 165 160 4Q10 150/. . 2013 155 . . 2 . 2014 . , 160 . 2008, 2010 , 200 .52 61. . 5. 2014 ., 2014 2014 119 Tcf(Trilion Cubic Feet) , 20.22 Tcf 17% . , 18.85 Tcf, 93% , 16.18Tcf 80% . 2014 2.4%(2013 1.9%), 1.8%(2013 0.3%) .2014 Segment 18 16 14 12 1086, , 2000 De-coupling 2014 , Gap 2013 .4 2 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 : World Bank3 2012 16.3$/MMBtu, 11.5$/MMBtu, 3$/MMBtu 2014 5.2% (15.5$/MMBtu), 10.3% (10.43$/MMBtu) , 25% (4$/MMBtu) World Bank(2012) . 2013 2014 0.5$/MMBtu , 0.77$/MMBtu, 0.5$/MMBtu . 4~5$/MMBtu (Tight Oil Shale Oil) (Wet Well) (Dry Well) . Over-Supply Spot 2014 .53 62. . , , , , , . Range 8.00 7.006.856.00 5.004.26 4.204.00 3.002.57 2.00 1.00 0.00 Range (EIA) 2014 3.91$/MMBtu 95% 6.04$/MMBtu, 2.60$/MMBtu 2.3 Range . , NY 2014 3.95$/MMBtu EIA , 2014 . , . : 2014 12 , : S/MMBtu : EIA(2013) : LNG , , . 12 3 5 , , . , 13 10 . IOC(International Oil Company) , . , , , , , . , . , , .54 63. . , 2014 , , , 2014 , , , 2014 , 1. ....................................... 56 2. ........................................... 58 3. ........................................... 60 4. ........................................... 6255 64. . 1. 2012 2013 , 2014 . () 75 ( )72 7074727010% 68670% 6520%3%0%0%-3%-3%-6%( )60-10%'12. '13. '14. : KAMA, , 2011 2 . 2011 8% 2012 11% , 3 13% . . 2010 2011 , . , 2013 . . , / . , , . , . , 2014 2% . () 18017040%( )16315916030% 15014714414020%10% 10% ( )1203%4%-2% -9%0% -10%-7%100-20%'12. '13. : KAMA, '14. 2012 . , -EU FTA , , 9% . . . , . 3, 1 , . , , 2014 . 56 65. . 2014 . (2013 1~9) 18% 30% 2,233 12% 19% 21% 3% () 240238231228 21822022420%4%0%216 210 20040%( )230( )3%190-8%-4%-1%1%180-20%'12. '13. : KAMA, , 51% , , . , 9 4% , . , , , . 9 12% 27 . , 3 , 4% . 8% 46 . . , . 2014 , 2015 . : KAMA, 250 '14. 2011 2012 , 8% 218 . 8 , GM 26% . 2013 2% . . . 2014 . , , , . 57 66. . 2. , , 2 2 . 13.9 , 155% 2013 9 58.1GT 22.8GT 154.8% . 21.1GT 145% , 23.8GT 186.7% . 8.3GT 14.3% . 2 . , . GT '13.1~9 21.1 '12.1~9 8.6 145.3% 8.3 3.5 137.1% 23.8 8.3 186.7% 1.6 0.8 100.0% 3.3 1.6 106.3% 58.1 22.8 154.8% : World Shipyard Monitor () (GT) 173.7'13.5e '13.9e164.8 54.2 52.2 70.0 63.730.8 30.8 380GT 08 8 13 4 , 5 . 9 173.7GT 2012 173.9GT . 11 1GT 2 . . 4 .14 , 9 . 150% . . , 13 3 28.6GT, 14 20% 34.3GT .: 58 67. . . . GT '13.1~9 20.7 11.4 19.7 1.5 2.5 55.8 '12.1~9 26.9 14.2 30.1 1.7 3.7 76.6 -23.0% -19.7% -34.6% -11.8% -32.4% -27.2% : , (GT) 8,00050% 7,50040%7,5007,0006,9006,80030% 6,60020%6,5006,2006,0005,8005,7005,50010% 0%5,200-10%5,000-20%4,500-30%4,000-40% '13 Q1 '13 Q2 '13 Q3 '13 Q4 '14. Q1 '14. Q2 '14. Q3 '14. Q4: (VLCC) (Capesize) (6,700TEU) LNG '12.9 '12.12 '13.4 95.0 93.0 90.0 46.0 46.0 47.0 58.5 58.0 58.0 201.0 199.5 198.0 126.8 126.3 126.3'13.9 90.0 50.0 64.5 198.0 129.5 : 129 139 881 = 100 : -5.3% 8.7% 10.3% -1.5% 2.1%13.9 27% 9 55.8GT 76.6GT 27.2% . , . , 20.7GT 23% , 19.7GT 34.6% . 37.1%, 35.3%, 20.4% 92.8% . . 83.5 GT 10% , 27.8 GT 11.7% . 2 . . 2014 . , 2014 20% . , 17% 22.9GT . , . . , 2015 . . . 13.9 129.5 2.1% . 2009 137.7 . , (Capesize) 1 . . 59 68. . 3. 2014 , 100.0101.198.9 96.217.8 2.1-1.1-4.897.10.984.9 -25.2 200920102011201220132014 : : , , 2 100 2013 , 4.8% 100 . 4 ( , , , TV) 13.6% , , . LG . 3 2 10 LCD TV . LG 2015 3 (Haiphong) . . 2014 . 0.9% . , 100 . ($)112.184.5113.432.7118.2123.3102.2 (%) 15.74.31.2 -9.9 -24.3200920102011201220132014 2014 2008 . , 2015 1 . : 60 69. . 2014 , ($)23.726.913.328.028.4-0.41.3201328.127.42.620112012-19.120092010 14.2(%)8.7 5.6 2.6 0.60.2-1.63.7-5.07.4 4.3 3.5-0.4-4.5 -8.12010: WSA201120122014 , (Solo Economy) , LCD TV 1.3% . 3 , . , : MTI Code 821~824 : , 2014 (%)2.0 15.7% 4.3% .201320142014 . , 4.3% . . 7.4% , 4 17 . . , , . TV .61 70. . 4. 2014 (%)30 * 20 100 -10 -20-30 2012 -4.1% 2013 -5.4% . 2 . , . 2 , . . 402013 2 '12.1 357911 '13.1 3579 : , 2013 4.2% . 2009 . . 3 , 6% 2.9% 11.9% . ()-2.2%1.3%0.6%-8.3% . 2013 3.1% 14 7,500 2012 2.0% . .28.026.125.526.513.112.913.513.312.512.612.512.3 2014 '13.'14.2014 . , : : , 62 71. . 3 2013 , 2014 . . 2 1.0% . 2014 , . 2014 5% 2012 , , . ()14.714.5 15.415.59.79.69.2'13.9.2'14. : : , ()11 12131456.454.151.251.7(7.6%)(-4.1%)(-5.4%)(1.0%)29.130.529.230.8(16.9%)(4.8%)(-4.2%)(5.6%)72.372.168.870.8(9.6%)(-0.3%)(-4.5%)(2.9%)23.120.718.918.8(-7.8%)(-10.4%)(-8.7%)(-0.8%) : , ( ) : , 2014 3.3% 15 . 2013 6.0% 2014 3.0% . 7% . 1.6% . , 5% . 3 2014 1,900 . 2014 2013 . 3 2013 , 2014 .63 72. ( [email protected]) ([email protected]) < > : : : : : CIS : MENA : : ( [email protected]) ([email protected]) ([email protected]) ([email protected]) ([email protected]) ([email protected]) ([email protected]) ([email protected])< > ([email protected]) ([email protected]) < > : : : : : ([email protected]) ( [email protected]) ([email protected]) ([email protected]) ([email protected])< > : : : : ([email protected]) ([email protected]) ( [email protected]) ([email protected]) ([email protected]) ([email protected]) ([email protected])64

2014 경제·산업 전망_POSRI_2013.11.27

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