140226 argbras2014
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Brasil 2014
13 de feverejro de 2014
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3
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2.7 2.9
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
América Latina Mundo
FMI
Crescimento do PIB
1989
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FMI
Crescimento
3.0 2.7 2.6
3.7
4.5
3.0
3.9
5.2
3.3
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Mundo Comércio América Latina
2013 2014 2015
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FMI
Crescimento
0.5 0.2
-1.8
-1.2
1.4 1.5
0.8 1.1
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Alemanha França Itália Espanha
2013 2014 2015
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Bloomberg
US$ / Euro
1.14
1.37
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
Ja
n/9
9
Nov/9
9
Se
p/0
0
Ju
l/0
1
Ma
y/0
2
Ma
r/0
3
Ja
n/0
4
No
v/0
4
Se
p/0
5
Ju
l/0
6
Ma
y/0
7
Ma
r/0
8
Ja
n/0
9
Nov/0
9
Se
p/1
0
Ju
l/11
Ma
y/1
2
Ma
r/1
3
Ja
n/1
4
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Bloomberg
Libor 6 meses US$ % anual
3.43
6.98
0.33 0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Ja
n/9
4
Fe
b/9
5
Ma
r/9
6
Ap
r/9
7
Ma
y/9
8
Ju
n/9
9
Ju
l/0
0
Au
g/0
1
Se
p/0
2
Oct/
03
Nov/0
4
Dec/0
5
Ja
n/0
7
Fe
b/0
8
Ma
r/0
9
Ap
r/1
0
Ma
y/1
1
Ju
n/1
2
Ju
l/1
3
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1,771.1
1,202.3
1,336.8
0 200 400 600 800
1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000
Bloomberg
Cotação do ouro US$
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1 375.00
0 200 400 600 800
1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000
Bloomberg
Cotação Soja US$
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FMI
Dívida pública/PIB 2013
47.8
68.3
12.9 18.6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Argentina Brasil Chile Peru
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The Economist
Déficit público
-3.3
-2.7
-0.6
0.6
-3.5
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
Argentina Brasil Chile Perú
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FMI
Investimento / PIB 2013
24.2
19.2
25.7 27.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Argentina Brasil Chile Peru
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Banco Mundial
Mercado ações % PIB
0.31
37.05
17.32
2.44
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Argentina Brasil Chile Peru
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Banco Mundial
Custo por conteiner
1,650
2,215
980 890
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Argentina Brasil Chile Peru
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Banco Mundial
Exportações % PIB
19.7
12.6
34.2
25.6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Argentina Brasil Chile Peru
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World Bank
Dias para abrir uma empresa
25
107.5
5.5
25
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Argentina Brazil Chile Peru
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Doing Business 2014 (189)
Doing Business 2014
126 116
34 42
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Argentina Brasil Chile Peru
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The Economist
Câmbio em 1 ano
55.0
21.9 17.2
8.9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Argentina Brasil Chile Perú
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The Economist
Projeção do PIB 2014
-0.6
2.2
4.1
5.6
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Argentina Brasil Chile Perú
2014
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22
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24
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Câmbio
• Curva J
• Expectativas e setor real
• Balanços
• Investidores
• Estoques
• Inflação
• Incertezas
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BCB
Posição de inv. internacional
13.7
190.9
547.4
715.9
1,467.9
97.4
360.9
297.4
755.8
-712.2
-1,000.0 -500.0 - 500.0 1,000.0 1,500.0 2,000.0
Outros
Empréstimos
Investimento em carteira
IED
Passivo (B)
Outros
Reservas
Investimentos
Ativo (A)
(A-B)
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Relação dívida/PIB
• Aumenta: juros e déficits
• Diminui: crescimento do PIB e superávits
• Importância do primário
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A armadilha
A
B
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BCB
Déficit público
3.28 2.48 2.61 2.48
3.28
5.28 5.18 5.71
4.87 5.18
-2.00 -2.70 -3.11
-2.39 -1.90
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Nominal Juros Primário
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Dívida pública
BCB
46.1
34.6
56.4 58.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
De
c/0
6
Ma
y/0
7
Oct/
07
Ma
r/0
8
Au
g/0
8
Ja
n/0
9
Ju
n/0
9
No
v/0
9
Ap
r/1
0
Se
p/1
0
Fe
b/1
1
Ju
l/11
De
c/1
1
Ma
y/1
2
Oct/
12
Ma
r/1
3
Au
g/1
3
Líquida Bruta
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15.1
14.6 14.4
14.9
16.9
15.0
16.9
13.0
13.5
14.0
14.5
15.0
15.5
16.0
16.5
17.0
17.5
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
BCB
Juros implícitos na DLSP
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-2.20 -2.60
-3.67
2.81 2.82 2.94
-0.62 -0.22
0.73
-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 - 1 2 3 4
Conta corrente Investimentos externos NFE
BCB
Transações externas
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3.63
1.67
3.55
2.00
2.95
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2014 2015 2016
BCB
Projeções do PIB
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Riscos
• Bolha
• Crescimento nos EUA
• Crise em emergentes
• China
• Problemas no Euro
• Oriente médio
• Clima
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37
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38
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Sinergia Argentina Brasil
• Turismo
• Educação
• Esportes
• Cultura
• Infraestrutura
• Empresários
• Economia
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Balança com Argentina
• Renda de investimentos diretos
• Despesa US$ 134 milhões
• Receita U$ 163 bilhões
• Exportações 8,1%
• Manufaturados 19,4%
44
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Ministério do Desenvolvimento US bilhões
Exportações para Argentina
0.7
22.7
19.6
0
5
10
15
20
25
19
89
1
99
0
19
91
1
99
2
19
93
1
99
4
19
95
1
99
6
19
97
1
99
8
19
99
2
00
0
20
01
2
00
2
20
03
2
00
4
20
05
2
00
6
20
07
2
00
8
20
09
2
01
0
20
11
2
01
2
20
13
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Âncora ou acelerador?
• SML
• Contas na moeda do parceiro
• Coordenação de política externa
• Potencial de comércio
• Sincronização de políticas macro
• Integração com Aliança do Pacífico
• Operação Parceiros
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Consultoria independente em assuntos bancários, gestões de riscos, capital,
liquidez, margens e crédito, planos de negócios, guias de investimento,
estudos técnicos, competitividade, benchmarking, macroeconomia, cenários,
testes de estresse, road shows, regulamentação e projetos.
A carteira de clientes inclui os bancos: Paulista, Luso Brasileiro, VR, Prosper,
BCN, CIT, Bradesco, Pecúnia, da Amazônica, Antônio de Queiroz, Geral do
Comércio, BanPará e Semear, e Prefeitura Municipal de Campinas; Igeoc;
Confederação Nacional da Indústria; Sebrae; Cooperativa de Bancos da
Alemanha; Paranapanema; Brasil EcoDiesel; Companhia Melhoramentos
Norte do Paraná; Serasa Experian; Willian Mercer; Atalntic Rating; Banco
Mundial; Cooperforte; Supervisão Bancária da Colômbia e o Fundo Monetário
Internacional.
Roberto Luis Troster é o sócio principal da Troster & Associados e é doutor em
economia pela USP, pós graduado em banking pela Stonier School of Banking;
foi economista chefe da Febraban, da ABBC e do Banco Itamarati, ex diretor
adjunto dos bancos Finasa e Mercantil de São Paulo foi membro fundador da
Câmara de Administração de Assuntos de Risco, lecionou na USP, Mackenzie
e PUC-SP.
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