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SEEAPPENDIXIFORIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS
Indonesia|8 July 2011
INDONESIA
www.k
imengresearch.com
EquityDaily
ResearchTeam
KatarinaSETIAWAN
HeadofResearch
+622125571125
RicardoSILAEN,CFA
+622125571126
RahmiMARINA
+622125571128
LuckyARIESANDI,
CFA
+622125571127
AdiN.WICAKSONO
+622125571130
ArwaniPRANADJAYA
+622125571129
KeyIndicesLast
Point
%
chg
IDXIndex 3,939.5 30.5 0.8
IDR/USD 8,536.5 7.5 0.1
TopIdea
Media
SuryaCitraMedia FastgrowingTVplay
- At our visit to Surya Citra Media (SCMA.IJ), the management
informedusthatthecompanystargetedrevenuegrowthforthis
yearisatleast1920%,similartolastyears19%.
- Inaddition, througheffectivemanagementofprogramme costs
andopex,thegrossmarginandoperatingmarginareexpectedto
improve. In1Q11,grossmarginandoperatingmargin improved
to64%and44%from53%and32%in1Q10,respectively.
MarketTalk
Plantation:BWPlantation(BWPT.IJ)expects1H11netprofitstocome
inatRp153b,up stronglyby80% y/ycompared to lastyearofRp85b.
RevenueisestimatedtocomeinatRp470b,up70%y/y.Pg.2
Retail:Carrefourannouncesgeneraloffer for remainingpublicsshares
inAlfaRetailindo(ALFA.IJ)atRp4,500/shareaftersuccessfullyobtaining
minorityshareholdersapprovaltodelistfromthebourse.Pg.3
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EquityDaily 8July2011
INDONESIAEQUITYRESEARCHPage2
Media Analyst:AdiNWicaksonoSuryaCitraMedia(SCMA.IJ,BUY) FastgrowingTVplay
WhatsNew
AtourvisittoSuryaCitraMedia(SCMA.IJ),themanagementinformedus
thatthecompanystargetedrevenuegrowth forthisyear isat least19
20%, similar to last years 19%. In addition, through effective
management of programme costs and opex, the gross margin and
operatingmargin are expected to improve. In 1Q11, grossmargin and
operatingmarginimprovedto64%and44%from53%and32%in1Q10,
respectively.
OurView
We anticipate future revenue growth to come from higher advertising
expenditure, lower spot bonuses, and the companys success in
maintainingthesecond largestaudienceshare.InFY10,TVbroadcasting
advertisingexpendituregrewby37%y/y,comparedto14%in2009.
The company plans to manage costs of programmes by focusing on
developing local series television programmes (which is cheaper than
importingfilms)andrenegotiatingcostswithproductionhouses.In4Q10,
the company appointed Screenplay, an affiliate company, to be a
productionhousepartner;thus,expectedprogrammingselectionshould
bemoreoptimalandefficientthanbefore.
Action&Recommendation
Assuming thecompanys revenuegrowsby20% thisyearandby16.4%
over thenext fiveyears (similar toAdspendsCAGR in20062010), the
companys estimated fair value would be Rp7,500 (based on DCF
methodology). Our TP represents 17.7x 2012 PER, relatively cheap
comparedtotelevisioncompanies(18.7x2012PER)intheregion.Hence,
werecommendBUY.
MarketHighlights
BWPlantation(BWPT.IJ,BUY): Strong1H11result,betterthan
expectation
Thecompanyexpects1H11netprofittocomeinatRp153b,upstrongly
by 80% y/y compared to last year of Rp85b. Revenue is estimated to
comeinatRp470b,up70%y/y.
Analystcomment:
WemaintainourtargetpriceatRp1300,peggingthestockat16.8x10.7x
FY1112 P/E. With 15% upside potential, the stock warrants BUY
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EquityDaily 8July2011
INDONESIAEQUITYRESEARCHPage3
recommendation.
Indicated 1H11 net profit is strong, better than our expectation,
accountingfor49%ofourFY11estimateofRp313b. Onquarterlybasis,
2Q11netprofitincreasedby213%y/ytoRp116bfromRp37bin1Q11.
ThegoodperformanceisdrivenbyhigherFFBoutputat250k(+49%y/y)
tonsand
CPO
at
38.7k
tons
(+54%
y/y).
AlfaRetailindo(ALFA.IJ):Carrefourlaunchesgeneralofferat
Rp4,500/share
Carrefourannouncesgeneraloffer (GO) for remainingpublicsshares in
Alfa Retailindo at Rp4,500/share after successfully obtaining minority
shareholdersapprovaltodelistfromthebourse.
Theprice is87%premiumcompared to thehighestprice in the90day
period prior to the announcement of the delisting plan, and 73%
premiumtofairvalueaccordingtoanindependentappraiser.
The
GO
will
be
effective
from
29
July
27
August
2011.
ChartPointers
IDX:
Indexs
second
resistance
could
be
touched
today.
Even
though
ST
moving average still shows uptrend, we do not suggest investors put
freshmoney to themarket.We see themarkethas been overbought.
Nevertheless, we see consumer sector looks appealing today. Todays
tradingrangeisbetween385838943917(support)and395339674003
(resistance).
INDF:Weseehealthycorrection inthisstock,withstrongsupporttrend
line. There isa strong technical rebound from that side.We set target
priceatRp6000.TRADINGBUY.
MYOR: Strong volume and stock price is trying to breakup the first
resistance level. There is a potential rally, benefiting from favorable
sentiment
in
the
consumer
sector.
We
upgrade
target
price
to
Rp17,000,
frompreviouslyRp15,000.TRADINGBUY.
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INDONESIAEQUITYRESEARCHPage4
Commodities 7Jul11 6Jul11 Change(US$) Change(%)
Nickel(US$/ton) 23,868.00 23,346.00 522.00 2.24
Tin(US$/ton) 27,484.00 26,681.00 803.00 3.01
Gold(US$/t.oz) 1,532.38 1,528.90 3.48 0.23
CPO
Malaysia
(US$/ton)
1,018.83
1,008.53
10.30
1.02
OilNYMEX(US$/barrel) 98.67 96.65 2.02 2.09
Coal ARAregion(US$/ton) 123.77 124.02 (0.25) (0.20)
Weeklydata 1Jul11 24Jun11 Change(US$) Change(%)
Coal Newcastle(US$/ton)* 120.90 121.17 (0.27) (0.22)
Source:Bloomberg;*GlobalCOAL'sNEWCweeklyindex
Company ADR ADRClose Change Local(Rp) ADR Shares
Ticker 7Jul11 % Equivalent IDXClose %Prem
Telkom NY(US$) TLKUS 33.79 0.33 7,212 7,150 0.86 40
Indosat NY(US$) IITUS 30.17 2.31 5,151 5,150 0.02 50
BLTSG
(Sin$)
BLTA
SP
0.04
2.33
307
300
2.43
Rp 8,537.00
Sin$ 6,983.95
Source:BloombergKeycorporateactions
Cumdate Exdate Company Action Price(Rp) Note
7Jul11* 8Jul11* BEKS Rightsissue:5(n):6(o) 100 *postponed
7Jul11 8Jul11 BNBA Finaldividend10 3
7Jul11 8Jul11 BSWD Finaldividend10 23
7Jul11 8Jul11 JTPE Finaldividend10 140
7Jul11 8Jul11 KAEF Finaldividend10 5
7Jul
11
8Jul
11
PTPP
Final
dividend
10
14.57
7Jul11 8Jul11 SMAR Finaldividend10 150
8Jul11 11Jul11 EPMT Finaldividend10 5
8Jul11 11Jul11 FAST Finaldividend10 448.18
8Jul11 11Jul11 FAST Stockdividend:2(n):63(o)
8Jul11 11Jul11 MTFN StockSplit:5(n):1(o)
8Jul11 11Jul11 UNIC Finaldividend10 33
11Jul11 12Jul11 CTRS Finaldividend10 13
11Jul11 12Jul11 CTRP Finaldividend10 7
11Jul11 12Jul11 MTDL Finaldividend10 4
11Jul11 12Jul11 SONA Finaldividend10 91
12Jul11 13Jul11 INDY Finaldividend10 26
13Jul11 14Jul11 MASA Finaldividend10 1
13Jul11 14Jul11 MYOR Finaldividend10 130
13Jul11 14Jul11 ABDA Finaldividend10 25
13Jul11 14Jul11 CITA Finaldividend10 8.9
14Jul11 15Jul11 BABP Finaldividend10 0.66
14Jul11 15Jul11 BRAU Finaldividend10 3.55
14Jul11 15Jul11 GDYR Finaldividend10 250
15Jul11 18Jul11 CMNP Finaldividend10 7.45
15Jul11 18Jul11 DPNS Finaldividend10 10
15Jul11 18Jul11 TRIM Finaldividend10 1
18Jul11 19Jul11 AMFG Finaldividend10 80
18Jul
11
19
Jul
11
SMMA
Final
dividend
10
1
18Jul11 19Jul11 TINS Finaldividend10 94.17
19Jul11 20Jul11 BBNP Finaldividend10 11.4
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EquityDaily 8July2011
INDONESIAEQUITYRESEARCHPage5
19Jul11 20Jul11 BRAM Finaldividend10 50
19Jul11 20Jul11 FORU Finaldividend10 4
19Jul11 20Jul11 GPRA Finaldividend10 1
19Jul11 20Jul11 IKBI Finaldividend10 10
19Jul11 20Jul11 ISAT Finaldividend10 59.55
19Jul11 20Jul11 PGAS Finaldividend10 144.24
19Jul11 20Jul11 RUIS Finaldividend10 8
20Jul11 21Jul11 CTBN Finaldividend10 USD0.021
20Jul11 21Jul11 INDR Finaldividend10 85
20Jul11 21Jul11 SMSM Finaldividend10 30
21Jul11 22Jul11 APLI Finaldividend10 20
21Jul11 22Jul11 ASDM Finaldividend10 35
22Jul11 25Jul11 AMAG Finaldividend10 10
22Jul11 25Jul11 CFIN Finaldividend10 15
22Jul11 25Jul11 PNIN Finaldividend10 5
25Jul11 26Jul11 CTRA Finaldividend10 6
25Jul11 26Jul11 GGRM Finaldividend10 880
26Jul
11
27
Jul
11
INDF
Final
dividend
10
133
26Jul11 27Jul11 IPOL Finaldividend10 3
27Jul11 28Jul11 BUMI Finaldividend10 41.78
27Jul11 28Jul11 SMGR Finaldividend10 248.26
28Jul11 29Jul11 PANR Finaldividend10 1.07
1Aug11 2Aug11 MFIN Finaldividend10 30
2Aug11 3Aug11 DGIK Finaldividend10 2.75
3Aug11 4Aug11 ESTI Finaldividend10 1
3Aug11 4Aug11 TSPC Finaldividend10 40
5Aug11 8Aug11 KREN Finaldividend10 9.05
8Aug11 9Aug11 CENT Finaldividend10 1
9Aug11 10Aug11 UNSP Finaldividend10 4.3
15Aug
11
16
Aug
11
CLPI
Final
dividend
10
27.8
15Aug11 16Aug11 PLIN Finaldividend10 2.5
22Aug11 23Aug11 LPPF Finaldividend10 14
13Sep11 14Sep11 OKAS Finaldividend10 1.02
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INDONESIAEQUITYRESEARCHPage6
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INDONESIAEQUITYRESEARCHPage7
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