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Akt 3 har börjatvem är med, vem tittar på och vem stretar mot
Dennis Pamlin, Founder and CEO, 21st Century Frontiers Stockholm 2011, 10 November 2011
二十一世纪新前线21st Century Frontiersइक्की�सवी� सदी की� स�मा�एं�
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二十一世纪新前线21st Century Frontiersइक्की�सवी� सदी की� स�मा�एं�
1
Planets available
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二十一世纪新前线21st Century Frontiersइक्की�सवी� सदी की� स�मा�एं�
9 000 000 000
Number of people 2050
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二十一世纪新前线21st Century Frontiersइक्की�सवी� सदी की� स�मा�एं�
∞
Number of opportunities available
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二十一世纪新前线21st Century Frontiersइक्की�सवी� सदी की� स�मा�एं�
0
Time left before we need action
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1. Var är vi?
2. Hjältar i ett nytt århundrande
3. Att ta ledningen, inte stå och titta på (hantera de som stretar mot)
4. Möjliga steg framåt
二十一世纪新前线21st Century Frontiersइक्की�सवी� सदी की� स�मा�एं�
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二十一世纪新前线21st Century Frontiersइक्की�सवी� सदी की� स�मा�एं�
Adbusters
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二十一世纪新前线21st Century Frontiersइक्की�सवी� सदी की� स�मा�एं�
http://www.maweb.org/en/index.aspx
Where are we?At the end of the road
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Where are we?Past the end of the road for the planet
1. There are planetary boundaries. And many of them have been crossed.
2. The ecosystems have started to collapse and conflicts are increasing.
3. Political and scientific agreement that we need to reduce our impact by a factor five/80% as soon as possible (incremental improvements are not enough).
二十一世纪新前线21st Century Frontiersइक्की�सवी� सदी की� स�मा�एं�
The Stockholm Resilience CentreGlobal Footprint NetworkIPCCC
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Where are we?At a time when transformative solutions are needed
二十一世纪新前线21st Century Frontiersइक्की�सवी� सदी की� स�मा�एं�
Transformative solutions
Transformative Solution Leadership http://transformative-solutions.net/2.0/files/material/LCL_Transformative_Solutions.pdf
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二十一世纪新前线21st Century Frontiersइक्की�सवी� सदी की� स�मा�एं�
1771-The industrial revolution
1829-Steam, coal, iron & railways
1875-Steel & heavy engineering
1908-Automobile, oil, mass production
1971-IT & telecommunication
Based on Ericsson material quoting Professor Carlota Perez, Universities of Cambridge, Tallinn and Sussex
Two different phases of each technological revolution
Time
INSTALLATION DEPLOYMENT
Turningpoint
20-30 years
More efficiently solving old problems - winners among old
players
Applying paradigm to innovate across society
– new winners
Where are we?In the middle of the next industrial/cultural revolution
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二十一世纪新前线21st Century Frontiersइक्की�सवी� सदी की� स�मा�एं�
SWEDEN
http://www.global-ict-leadership.net/
Where are we in this country?Sweden in a dangerous space of boringness
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Heroes in the 21st century
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Being a ICT company in the 21st century
二十一世纪新前线21st Century Frontiersइक्की�सवी� सदी की� स�मा�एं�
ACT 1The Crime
The scientific discussion 1900-1962 =>
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二十一世纪新前线21st Century Frontiersइक्की�सवी� सदी की� स�मा�एं�
Climate
changeRainforest
OceansEtc
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二十一世纪新前线21st Century Frontiersइक्की�सवी� सदी की� स�मा�एं�
ACT 2The Villain
The pollution debate 1972-2008 (5 May) =>
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二十一世纪新前线21st Century Frontiersइक्की�सवी� सदी की� स�मा�एं�
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二十一世纪新前线21st Century Frontiersइक्की�सवी� सदी की� स�मा�एं�
Hunting the villainWhat is called “green” today is often either mainly moving the problemor is not enough (not always bad, but not enough and often actually bad)
From dominant net exporting countries (blue) to dominant net importing countries (red).
Fluxes of Emissions Embodied in Trade (Mt CO2 y-1)
http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/
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二十一世纪新前线21st Century Frontiersइक्की�सवी� सदी की� स�मा�एं�
ACT 3The Hero
The solution era 2009/11 =>http://www.transformative-step.net/
Remember, remember the 5th of December 2011
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二十一世纪新前线21st Century Frontiersइक्की�सवी� सदी की� स�मा�एं�
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二十一世纪新前线21st Century Frontiersइक्की�सवी� सदी की� स�मा�एं�
Booz and Co. 2010
Few understand how much money that must change directionNew ways to provide the solutions we need must be acknowledged and new business successes welcomed.
$350 trillion
to be invested in construction and use of urban infrastructures over the next 30 years to provide basic services such as mobility, heat, lighting, etc. 7 times current annual GDP
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BIG PROBLEMSToo many good solutions, that are too good in too many areas
二十一世纪新前线21st Century Frontiersइक्की�सवी� सदी की� स�मा�एं�
http://www.pamlin.net/new/?p=463
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Taking the lead
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Approach
二十一世纪新前线21st Century Frontiersइक्की�सवी� सदी की� स�मा�एं�
Transformative Solution Leadership http://transformative-solutions.net/2.0/files/material/LCL_Transformative_Solutions.pdf
Direct emissions/ local reductions
Embedded emissions/ low carbon trade
Solutions/ global development
Reduce/move direct problems
Address the Full Life-Cycle
Develop Global Solutions
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二十一世纪新前线21st Century Frontiersइक्की�सवी� सदी की� स�मा�एं�
Being a company in the 21st century: Problems
Company’s/Sectors own emissions
FOCUS ON ZERO
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二十一世纪新前线21st Century Frontiersइक्की�सवी� सदी की� स�मा�एं�
Being a company in the 21st century: Solutions
Company’s/Sectors own emissions (e.g. ICT sector)
FOCUS ON DRIVERS FOR INNOVATION
The emissions the solution company/sector can help reduce (The ICT sector 15 to >30% by 2030)
FOCUS ON EXPONENTIAL GROWTH
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> Give us future directions, lobbying, story chains, etc
二十一世纪新前线21st Century Frontiersइक्की�सवी� सदी की� स�मा�एं�
Embrace transformative transparency
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The opportunity hookThreshold levels for transformative change
0-25 25-75 75-90 90-100
Relevance for old ways of providing a service
Relevance for transformative ways of providing a service
Difficulty to implement solution
% Change needed compared with baseline
Threshold level
Identify and lobby for transformative thresholds
Relevance/how easy different solutions are to implement
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二十一世纪新前线21st Century Frontiersइक्की�सवी� सदी की� स�मा�एं�
Possible steps forward
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Fun!!
二十一世纪新前线21st Century Frontiersइक्की�सवी� सदी की� स�मा�एं�
1. Think about what you already doEnjoy being a leader, but get the numbers in place (magnitudes)
2. ParticipateTransformative step of the day, track out of the box on Twitter, etc
3. Use the nine billion filterHelp drive innovation and export of smart services
4. LegacyCreate/join a transformative teams to be proud of:• Digital Alexandria• 21st Century Office• Plus Buildings• 24/7 Health
5. Set planet positive targetsHelp the planet get what it needs, reduce the footprint in the rest of the world and make sure that the money spent goes to those reinvesting it for the 21st century…
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Sustainable development谢谢 !
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“Det finns saker man måste göra, även om det är farligt. Annars är man ingen människa, utan bara en liten lort.”
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二十一世纪新前线21st Century Frontiersइक्की�सवी� सदी की� स�मा�एं�
Being a company in the 21st century: new clusters
The 21st century infrastructure: The internet of things(>50 billions 2020)
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二十一世纪新前线21st Century Frontiersइक्की�सवी� सदी की� स�मा�एं�
Being a company in the 21st century: 0 to 9 bil
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Incremental improvementsin existing systems
二十一世纪新前线
21st Century Frontiersइक्की�सवी� सदी की� स�मा�एं�
Technology leaps
Transformative solutions
Push for a move from problems to new solutions
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二十一世纪新前线21st Century Frontiersइक्की�सवी� सदी की� स�मा�एं�
Long-term GDP trendsGoldman Sachs
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
$USb
n
China
US
Japan
Germany
UK
France
Italy
India
EU-4
Goldman Sachs: The Long-Term Outlook for the BRICs
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二十一世纪新前线21st Century Frontiersइक्की�सवी� सदी की� स�मा�एं�