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第11 章 股票評價 - OpenWebMailmail.nhu.edu.tw/~ysliau/ch11.pdf ·...
Transcript of 第11 章 股票評價 - OpenWebMailmail.nhu.edu.tw/~ysliau/ch11.pdf ·...
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11 3
ISBN 978-957-41-7812-4
11
11-1 1 10 5
10 5
11-2
11-3
11-4
11-5
-
4
ISBN 978-957-41-7812-4
11-6
(NOPLAT)
1.
(=12%)
(1) 10
(2)5 18
(3) 11400
(4) 6500 5%
Ans
(1) 10
(2) 137,102$%)121(
180000$5 =+
(3) 000,95$%12
11400$=
(4) 857,92$5%-%12
6500$=
(2)
2. 10 4
Ans
4)r1( 10 =+ r=14.87%
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ISBN 978-957-41-7812-4
3. 5
15%
(1) 10%
(2) 3 14% 3 8%
Ans
(1) D05 10% 110$%10%15%)101(5$
(2) %)141(5D1 2
2 %)141(5D 3
3 %)141(5D +
%)81(%)141(5D 34 ++
3
3
3
3
2
2
%)151(%)8%15(%)81(%)141(5$
%)151(%)141(5$
%)151(%)141(5$
%)151(%)141(5$
$89.89
4. TFT-LCD
TFT-LCD TFT-LCD
2
52 20% 15%
Ans
46 [%15%20%)151(2
]
5. 31.8 14%
31.8
Ans
-
6
ISBN 978-957-41-7812-4
P
P0 k
D=P
Pk1.4=31.8
Pk =4.4%
6. 1.2 30%
(ROE) 10%
15
Ans
(1)gbROE30%10%3% 1.2 1.236
(2) 18.54 ($1.236 15)
7. 5 4 6 8
4% 13%
Ans
4432 %)131(%)4%13(%)41(8$
%)131(8$
%)131(6$
%)131(4$
%)131(5$
$73.32
8.
Ans:
gkED
EP 1
1
=
1
1
ED
k g
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ISBN 978-957-41-7812-4
9.
Ans
(1)(Price/Earnings Ratio)
(2)
(Price to Book Ratio, PBR)
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8
ISBN 978-957-41-7812-4
1
(3)(Price/Sales Ratio, PSR)
10.
Ans
(Free Cash Flows, FCF)
(WACC)
(1)(FCF)
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ISBN 978-957-41-7812-4
(2) 1t
tt
)WACC1(FCF
= +
(3)
(4)
(Earnings Before Interest and Taxes,
EBIT) EBIT (Net Operation Profit Less Adjusted Taxes,
NOPLAT)
11. 2 25%
1,500 3,000 5,000
2,000 3,000 :(1)(2)
3%WACC 10%
5,000
Ans
(1)=EBIT(1T)+
=2 (125%)+1,500 =16,500
=
=16,500 [5,000 3,000
+3,000 2,000 ]
=13,500
(2)=13,500 /(10%3%)=192,857.14
=192,857.14 +5,000 =197,857.14
12. risky portfolio$70,000
$20,000 0.5risk-free rate 6%
(1) 8%
(2)(1)
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ISBN 978-957-41-7812-4
(3) 12%
2008 -
Ans:
(1)1 =0.5$70,000+0.5$20,000=$45,000
=6%+8%=14%
$39,47414%1
$45,000=
+=
(2)=14%
(3) =6%+12%=18%
$38,13618%1
$45,000=
+=
13. $1 25%
5%market capitalization rate
20%:
(1)intrinsic value
(2)expected dividend yield
(3)
2008 -
Ans:
(1)
$3.25720%)(1
25%)(1$120%)(1
25%)(1$120%1
25%)(1$13
3
2
2
=++
+++
+++
=
= $7.91220%)(11
5%-20%5%)(125%)(1$1
3
3
=+
++
=$3.257+$7.912=$11.169
(2) = 11.19%11.169
25%)(1$1=
+
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ISBN 978-957-41-7812-4
(3)
$2.65820%)(1
25%)(1$120%)(1
25%)(1$12
32
=++
+++
=
= $9.49420%)(11
5%-20%5%)(125%)(1$1
2
3
=+
++
1 =$2.658+$9.494=$12.152
=$12.152-$11.169=$0.983
14. P/E ratio
(1)
(2)
(3)
2008 -
Ans:
(1)
(2)
(3)
15. 100,000
8%
(1)
(2) 100,000
(3)
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ISBN 978-957-41-7812-4
(4) 8%
2007-
Ans:
(1)8%
8.16%1-)2
8%(1 2 =+
8.24%1-)4
8%(1 4 =+
(2) = 971,251$8%)(1$100,000 3 =+
= 532,261$)2
8%(1$100,000 6 =+
= 824,261$)4
8%(1$100,000 12 =+
(3)
(4)
16. (P/E)
2005 -
Ans:
(P/E Ratio)
=
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ISBN 978-957-41-7812-4
1. 3 6%
10%(A)75 (B)30 (C)53 (D)79.5
2010Q3
Ans(D)
2. P 1 $1.65 2 $1.97 3 $2.54 3
8% 11%
(A)$33.0 (B)$40.67 (C)$71.80 (D)$66.00
2010Q3
Ans(C)
3. 1.5 2
5% 12%
(A)28.58 (B)28.79 (C)30.00 (D)31.78
2010Q2
Ans(A)
4. A
3 4%
10% A (A)50 (B)52
(C)41.32 (D)42.98
2010Q1
Ans(C)
5. (A) (B)
(C) (D)
2010Q1
Ans(B)
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ISBN 978-957-41-7812-4
6. XYZ 6 20 8
10(Dividend Discount Model)
(A) 11.33 (B)13.33 (C) 15.33 (D) 17.33
2009Q4
Ans(B)
7. 40 2.5
(A)$98 (B)$100 (C)$1.25 (D)$35
2009Q3
Ans(B)
8. ..
.(A) (B) (C) (D)
2009Q1
Ans(D)
9. 2 5%
6% 11% 1.2
(A)30 (B)28.57 (C)35 (D)42
2009Q1
Ans(A)
10. 5% (A) 10,000
(B)1 10,450 (C)2 11,500 (D)3 11,570
2007Q2
Ans(C)
11. (A) (B)
(C) (D)
2007Q1
Ans(D)
12. 2 (A)
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ISBN 978-957-41-7812-4
(B) (C)
(D)
2007Q1
Ans(D)
13. ROE 11% 90% 5 56
8% (NPVGO) (A)6.5 (B)
6.5 (C)8.29 (D) 8.29
2006Q4
Ans(B)
14. 6.05% 9.05%
2.0 2 7%
(A)21.72 (B)56.94 (C)25.00
(D)42.38
2006Q4
Ans(D)
15. 4.5 6%
45 4 (A)85
(B)56 (C)75 (D)65
2006Q4
Ans(B)
16. 2.5 1
(ROE) 12.5% 11%
60% 1 (A)1.00 (B)2.50
(C)2.69 (D)2.81
2006Q3
Ans(C)
17. 8 2%
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ISBN 978-957-41-7812-4
6% 14%
0.25 (A)80.00 (B)133.33 (C)122.33
(D)111.33
2006Q3
Ans(B)
18. (P/E Ratio) (A) (B)
(ROE) (C)
(Double-Digit)(D)
2006Q3
Ans(C)
19~20
M 1 6% 5%
13% M 1.2
19. M (A)12.0% (B)14.6% (C)15.6% (D)20.0%
2006Q1
Ans(B)
20. M (Intrinsic Value) (A)NTD14.29(B)NTD14.60
(C)NTD12.33(D)NTD11.62
2006Q1
Ans(D)
21. 600 100
12%
100% (A)40 (B)50 (C)60 (D)8.33
2005Q4
Ans(B)
22. 8%
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ISBN 978-957-41-7812-4
20% (A)26.2 (B)36.2 (C)46.2 (D)56.2
2005Q4
Ans(B)
23.
(A)
(B) (C)
(D)
2005Q3
Ans(D)
24. A B B 20 A
B 1 2 A (A)20 (B)40
(C)30 (D)10
2004Q3
Ans(A)
25. (A)
(B) (C)
(D)
2003Q4
Ans(C)
26. (A) (B)
(C) (D)
2002Q2
Ans(D)
27. (A)
(B) (C) (D)
2002Q2
Ans(C)
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ISBN 978-957-41-7812-4
1.2 4%
14%1.2522
(1)(3 )
(2)(intrinsic value)(4 )
(3)21 (3 ) 2010Q2
Ans:
(1)=4%+1.25(14%-4%)=16.5%
(2) = $20.616.5%1
$22$2=
++
(3) $2116.5%11
g-16.5%g)(1$2
16.5%1$2
=+
+
++
g=6.98%
2. 530 54.5 538
523%ROE511% 90% 2%
7% b 0.7 P/EP/B P/S
ROE 3 80
2006Q4
Ans
(1)(k)= =+ %77.0%2 6.9%
g-kD
P i,1i,0 =
ROEd)1(ROEbg ==
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ISBN 978-957-41-7812-4
%1.1%11%)901(ROEd)1(g ===
60.70$%1.1%9.6
%90%)1.11(5.4$g-k
DP i,1i,0 =
+==
P/EP/BP/S
15.694.5
70.60==
1.86
3870.60
===
2.35
3070.60
===
(2) 80
17.78 2.11 2.67
78.714.580
==
11.2
3880
===
2.67
3080
===
3. EPS
2005Q4
Ans
gkED
EP 1
1
=
1
1
ED
k g
(1) EPS
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ISBN 978-957-41-7812-4
(2)
(3) k
(4) g
g g = b ROE
b g
4.(ROE)
2005Q2
Ans
=
P0 = kEPS1 NPVGO
(k
EPS1 ) 1
100% EPS1=D1
(NPV)
(NPVGO)
NPVGO =gk
NPV1
NPV1= )d1(EPSkROE)d1(EPS
11
ROE > k
NPV1 NPVGO
ROE < k NPV1 NPVGO
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ISBN 978-957-41-7812-4
5.(ROE)
2003Q3
Ans
g-kD
P i,1i,0 =
ROEd)1(ROEbg == ROE
ROEEPS
dROEdEPS
d)-(1ROE-ROEdEPS
d)-(1ROE-kdEPS
g-kD
P 1111i,1i,0 =
=
=
==
=1EPS
=ROE
===
ROEEPSP 1i,0
6.
2003Q1
Ans
=
(NOPLAT)
(Net Working Capital)
(=+)(=+
)
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ISBN 978-957-41-7812-4
(1) =)FCF(
(2) ++
=
=1tt
t
WACC)1(FCF
(3)=
(4)
=
7.
(1)
(2)
(3)
2002Q2
Ans
gkED
EP 1
1
1
1
ED
(1)
(b%)(ROE)
(2)
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ISBN 978-957-41-7812-4
(3)KD1
KD1 NN
NKD1
D1K NK N
1
8.(ROE) 25%(EPS) 10
15%
(1)
(2) 20%
(3) 40%
(4)(1)(2)(3)(PE)
(5)
2001Q4
Ans
(1) 67.66$%15
10$k
EPSkD
P0
(2)gROE (1d) 25% 20%5%
80$%)5%15(
%)201(10$)g(kdEPS
)g(kD
P 110
(3)g25% 40%10%
120$%)10%15(%)401(10$
)gR(dEPS
)gR(D
P 110
(4)(1)$66.67 $106.667 g0%
(2)$80 $108 g5%
(3)$120 $1012 g10%
9. 3 4 9%
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24
ISBN 978-957-41-7812-4
7% b 1.5 15%
(1)
(2)
(3)
1998Q3
Ans
)gR()g1(D
)gR(D
P 010
gROE(1d)
P0 D1 R g
ROE d
(SML)
E(Ri)Rf[E(Rm)Rf]i
Rf i I E(Ri)
(1)
1 Ri
E(Ri)Rf[E(RmRf)]i 7%(9%7%)1.510%
2 P0
)gR()g1(D
)gR(D
P 010
=
g0% P0$3(10%)/(10%0%)$30
(2)
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ISBN 978-957-41-7812-4
%754$3$
EPSD
d 0
gROE(1d)15%(175%)3.75% (3)
)gR()g1(D
)gR(D
P 000
8.49$%)75.3%10(%)75.31(3$
10.1991 1 b 1.2 9%
14% 1997 1997 14,000
1 3,889 166,666
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5) 47.86
1997Q3
Ans
(1)(SML)
E(Ri)Rf[E(Rm)Rf] i 9%(14%9%)1.215%
15%
(2) ROE666,166$
000,14$ 100%8.4%
d000,14$000,10$
0.714286
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ISBN 978-957-41-7812-4
gROE(1d)8.4% (10.714286)2.4%
(3)
3889000,14$
$3.6
(4)
P0 90.20$%4.2%15
%)4.21(3889
000,10$
gR)g1(D
gRD 01
(5) 47.86 20.90
11. 2.5 8% 15% 15%
0.25 60%
(1)
(2)
1994Q3
Ans
gbROE
ROEROA )ED
(1
P0D0 )gR(g)(1
(1)
(g)
gbROE
b ROE
ROE )ED1(ROA
EDE
ANI
EA
ANI
ENI
NI E D A
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ISBN 978-957-41-7812-4
gROEbROA(1ED )b
60%15%(10.25)11.25%
11.25%
(2)
P0 )gR()g1(D0
P0 Dt t R
g
P0 %25.11%15%)25.111(5.2
gR)g1(D0
74.17 74.17
12. D1=6 15%90
5% b 0.7 15%
40%
(1) 5
(2)
(3)
1992Q4
Ans
E(Ri)Rf[E(Rm)Rf] i
5%(15%5%)0.712% gbROE40%15%6%
(1)
P0 67.41$%125$
RD
(2)
-
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ISBN 978-957-41-7812-4
100$%)6%12(
6$)gR(
D)gR()g1(D 10
(3)
)gR(NPV
REPS 11
NPV1 )d1(EPSRROE)d1(EPSRE
RROERE
33.83$%12
%)401/(6$R
)b1/(DR
EPS 11
$100$83.33$16.67
Mini-Case V.S.
1993
(Calpers) IBM 6
EVA
(Fortune) 500
1996
1355 1345
104 1879
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ISBN 978-957-41-7812-4
1.
2.
EVAMVA