中國大戰略 The Grand Strategy of China

全球化下的中美互動全球化下的中美互動

第二篇 全球化全球化 ((上 )

Part I: Synopsis of Power Reference: “The Paradox of Reference: “The Paradox of

American Power” by Joseph S. Nye JrAmerican Power” by Joseph S. Nye Jr The embedded concept in “Power”The embedded concept in “Power”

Power is the ability to effect outcomes you Power is the ability to effect outcomes you want,and to change,if necessary the behavior want,and to change,if necessary the behavior of others so as to make it happening.of others so as to make it happening.

Two kinds of PowerTwo kinds of Power Hard PowerHard Power Soft PowerSoft Power

Hard (Command) Power Factors that contribute to hard PowerFactors that contribute to hard Power

PopulationPopulation TerritoryTerritory Natural ResourcesNatural Resources Economical StrengthEconomical Strength Military ForcesMilitary Forces Political StabilityPolitical Stability

Like playing in high stack Poker Like playing in high stack Poker Game; holding high cards may not Game; holding high cards may not win,if you:win,if you: play the hand poorlyplay the hand poorly fall victim to bluff and/or deceptionfall victim to bluff and/or deception E.g. pre-WW II, Hitler; Pearl HarborE.g. pre-WW II, Hitler; Pearl Harbor

Test of PowerHistorically, test of power is Historically, test of power is

reflected in the capabilities to reflected in the capabilities to wage warswage wars 17-1817-18thth Centuries (Agrarian Society): Centuries (Agrarian Society):

population -> tax base and foot soldierspopulation -> tax base and foot soldiers 1919thth Century: industry growth-> power Century: industry growth-> power

basebase Britain: Started the Industrial Revolution Germany: Added efficient Administration &

infrastructure 2020thth Century: industrial might Russia & Century: industrial might Russia &

U.S. rose as bipolar SuperpowersU.S. rose as bipolar Superpowers Power Base: Nuclear Arsenals and ICBM Yet, Nationalism rises world-wide Meanwhile, societal changes take place within Great

Powers

What Triggers Wars Rise of “new” Great Power(s) -> anxiety Rise of “new” Great Power(s) -> anxiety

has seen to precipitate military criseshas seen to precipitate military crises For examples, the onset of WW I owed For examples, the onset of WW I owed

much to the rise of Kaiser’s Germany much to the rise of Kaiser’s Germany and the fear which caused in Britain.and the fear which caused in Britain.

New Risk: the rise of China and the fear New Risk: the rise of China and the fear which caused in U.S.which caused in U.S.

Wars are usually the results of miss-Wars are usually the results of miss-trust and miss-communication; trust and miss-communication; maximizing bilateral communication maximizing bilateral communication can reduce chance of military can reduce chance of military confrontationconfrontation

Soft Power Soft Power: getting other to want what Soft Power: getting other to want what

you want; co-opts people instead of you want; co-opts people instead of coerces themcoerces them ability to set political agenda in way that shapes the ability to set political agenda in way that shapes the

preference of otherspreference of others of intangible natureof intangible nature cost less to lead – founded on culture, ideology, and cost less to lead – founded on culture, ideology, and

institutioninstitution

Britain CapitalismBritain Capitalism free trade; gold as trade standard free trade; gold as trade standard

American CapitalismAmerican Capitalism institutionalized: World Bank, IMF, WTO, and othersinstitutionalized: World Bank, IMF, WTO, and others U.S. dollar as trade standard; extended creditU.S. dollar as trade standard; extended credit

Power in the 21th Century There Dimensional Power There Dimensional Power

StructureStructure 1st Dimension: Military Might1st Dimension: Military Might 2nd Dimension: Economic Strength2nd Dimension: Economic Strength 3rd Dimension: Soft Power3rd Dimension: Soft Power

Soft Power relies on Three Layers Soft Power relies on Three Layers of Information Systemof Information System 1st layer: general flow of public information, 1st layer: general flow of public information,

such as news and statisticssuch as news and statistics 2nd layer: internal information management2nd layer: internal information management 3rd layer: intelligent information gathering 3rd layer: intelligent information gathering

=> knowledge of competitors’ game plans=> knowledge of competitors’ game plans

Part II: A future Worth Creating Reference: “The Pentagon’s New Reference: “The Pentagon’s New

Map” by Thomas P.M. BarnettMap” by Thomas P.M. Barnett The world is divided in two camps:The world is divided in two camps:

The Functioning Core: states open to free trade The Functioning Core: states open to free trade and connected through globalizationand connected through globalization

1st-tier: industrialized old cores: U.S. Euro, Japan, etc. 2nd-tier: emerging new cores: China, India, Brazil,S. Koran,

etc.

Non-integrating Gap: states isolated themselves Non-integrating Gap: states isolated themselves from international flows of informationfrom international flows of information

Caribbean Rim, Africa, the Balkans, the Caucasus, Central Asia, Middle East, SW Asia, and most of SE Asia

harbor terrorism including rogue states: (Iraq), N. Koran ,Iran, and Syria

MAD: Mutual Assured DestructionNew Security SettingNew Security Setting

Nuclear Weapons aren’t for using, Nuclear Weapons aren’t for using, but for having thembut for having them

Effectively ends direct wars between Effectively ends direct wars between great powersgreat powers

However,However, In 1995, China was “theorized” as In 1995, China was “theorized” as

the “THREAT” of the futurethe “THREAT” of the future notion reinforced when China fired missiles over

Taiwan China posted threats trying to China posted threats trying to

influence Taiwan 1996 Election had influence Taiwan 1996 Election had back fired => U.S. marked China as back fired => U.S. marked China as the near-peer competitorthe near-peer competitor

U.S. the sole Global Naval Power U.S.won the trust of small or smaller U.S.won the trust of small or smaller

nations as the protector than invadernations as the protector than invader change agenda from “achieving the command of the change agenda from “achieving the command of the

sea to “using the command of sea”sea to “using the command of sea”

China is suspected, neutralized greatly China is suspected, neutralized greatly over recent diplomatic efforts,by over recent diplomatic efforts,by neighbors as a threat in the futureneighbors as a threat in the future Pentagon old-times “Pentagon old-times “theorizedtheorized” China may one day ” China may one day

build a navy that challenges to U.S. sole dominationbuild a navy that challenges to U.S. sole domination Wall Street strategists see no military threat from Wall Street strategists see no military threat from

China, since China has open to globalizationChina, since China has open to globalization

Transnational TerrorismTransnational

TerrorismInter-States

War

War againstindividuals

DisconnectedStates

AsymmetricalWarfare

Deny AccessEvil Empire

System LevelThreat

Global War

State Level Threat (e.g.

Iraq -> Kuwait)

Failing StateThreat

(e.g. 911)

Part III 中美互动 1989 post Tinanmen Square Incident1989 post Tinanmen Square Incident China chose to further its China chose to further its 改革开放 改革开放

policy, establishing legal & economy policy, establishing legal & economy “Rule Sets”“Rule Sets”

Induced an influx of Foreign Direct Induced an influx of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)Investment (FDI)

U.S. now becomes tolerant of “Single U.S. now becomes tolerant of “Single Party Domination,” Party Domination,” 新新 ,, 马马 ,, 日日 ,, 韩韩

Wall Street: “China is not the Wall Street: “China is not the problem, prize is”problem, prize is”

Everybody Plays Politics War is an extension of Politics War is an extension of Politics

So long as political means prevail, wars are So long as political means prevail, wars are not necessary nor desirablenot necessary nor desirable

MAD leaves great powers no option but play MAD leaves great powers no option but play politicspolitics

Globalization has evolvedGlobalization has evolved Globalization is a condition defined by Globalization is a condition defined by

Mutually Assured Dependence (also MAD)Mutually Assured Dependence (also MAD) Globalization is now the dynamics which Globalization is now the dynamics which

drives world trades, thereby economics, drives world trades, thereby economics, thereby politicsthereby politics

thereby, the Rules of War and Peacethereby, the Rules of War and Peace Globalization’s ultimate goal – the Globalization’s ultimate goal – the

end of war as we know it.end of war as we know it.

Who Makes the Rules In U.S., three groups of think In U.S., three groups of think

tanks who work on the Game tanks who work on the Game Plans/War GamesPlans/War Games National Security PolicymakersNational Security Policymakers

old timer: see China as a near-peer competitor new breed: see no reality in China being a threat in

foreseeable future Wall Street HeavyweightsWall Street Heavyweights

see China as the fast-growing emerging Market that will soon exceed U.S. in economic size

Academic ExpertsAcademic Experts U.S.will consult with G7 and get U.S.will consult with G7 and get

consensusconsensus ““G7 + China” Next?G7 + China” Next?

Some get it and some don’t Not every state, neither everyone, Not every state, neither everyone,

benefits from Globalizationbenefits from Globalization not unless you have an able government – not unless you have an able government –

Hurray to Hurray to 朱鎔基 朱鎔基 and his great wisdom to and his great wisdom to embrace WTOembrace WTO

not unless you are big enough in size, sufficient not unless you are big enough in size, sufficient to buffer the consequential transitionsto buffer the consequential transitions

not if you are at the bottom of the pyramidnot if you are at the bottom of the pyramid Old Pillars: U.S., west Europe, and Japan New Pillars: China, India, Brazil, Chile, Argentina, S. Korea,

Russia there are some fights between the two camps: AIDS vs.

anthrax not until there is global energy equality, but not until there is global energy equality, but

that is another storythat is another story

Us against Them Little people vs. big Corporate; have-Little people vs. big Corporate; have-

not vs.have; developing vs.industrial not vs.have; developing vs.industrial How do we know we can trust them?How do we know we can trust them?

the economy of scale pays dividendsthe economy of scale pays dividends it is a fair play found on mutual dependency, it is a fair play found on mutual dependency,

e.g. out-sourcing vs. financing U.S. trade e.g. out-sourcing vs. financing U.S. trade deficitdeficit

more rules (economic rule set,political rule more rules (economic rule set,political rule set, and security rule set) means less warsset, and security rule set) means less wars

How do they know they can trust us?How do they know they can trust us? once you are connected, you are hookedonce you are connected, you are hooked

Capital $

Demand

Jobs

$ Profit

Marketmass production

Infra-structure

Technology

Facility & Equipment

stimuli

initial production

Neo-capitalism

Market

Technology

mass production Jobs

The Flow of MoneyWhy we won’t be going to war with China

““New Rule Sets” project’s 3 WorkshopsNew Rule Sets” project’s 3 Workshops ““energy” -- Asia’s getta have it (2x in 20 yrs)energy” -- Asia’s getta have it (2x in 20 yrs) ““opportunity” -- Who’s gonna pony up the moneyopportunity” -- Who’s gonna pony up the money ““crime” of all environmental damage that will becrime” of all environmental damage that will be

Two camps of participantsTwo camps of participants Pentagon strategists dreamed of long distance push Pentagon strategists dreamed of long distance push

button missile wars with Chinabutton missile wars with China Wall Street executives fretted over long-term FDI Wall Street executives fretted over long-term FDI

triggering rule-set wars with Chinatriggering rule-set wars with China It’s Wall Street who has the final Say.It’s Wall Street who has the final Say.

China needs to 2x its energy China needs to 2x its energy consumption in a generation, and need consumption in a generation, and need Wall Street’s help to get the energy she Wall Street’s help to get the energy she needs needs

A Funny Poker Game A poker game where all players peekA poker game where all players peek

no hidden agenda; no hidden rules no hidden agenda; no hidden rules communication to displace confrontation-- it communication to displace confrontation-- it

pays to let the other side know what is on your pays to let the other side know what is on your hold, for it could cost more to play it outhold, for it could cost more to play it out

compromise will incur win-wincompromise will incur win-win Some of Barnett’s Predictions:Some of Barnett’s Predictions:

2010: U.S. and China partner managing global 2010: U.S. and China partner managing global stability; China => U.S. diplomatic near-peerstability; China => U.S. diplomatic near-peer

2015: NAFTA2015: NAFTA 2020: Asia version of NATO2020: Asia version of NATO 2050: U.S. adds a dozen new states2050: U.S. adds a dozen new states

Horizontal Thinking - A Footnote ““One needs to think horizontally, One needs to think horizontally,

seeing history for what it was, seeing history for what it was, and future for what it will be” and future for what it will be” -- -- Thomas BarnettThomas Barnett

““One needs to keep theOne needs to keep the willingness to follow what the willingness to follow what the data is telling you, not default to data is telling you, not default to let your memory does your let your memory does your thinking” thinking” -- -- 石子石子