自然保育學 meeting conservation challenges in the 21st century

鄭先祐 (Ayo)國立 臺南大學 環境與生態學院生態科學與技術學系 教授

靜宜大學 生態研究所 碩士班

Japalura@hotmail.com

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Contents • Countering ( 討價還價 ) the impacts on biodiversity fro

m poverty in many countries and over-consumption in a few countries

• Working with uncertainty in ecological, social, economic, and political systems

• Are conservation efforts succeeding and how can we improve?

• Influencing people’s habits: reducing destructive impacts

• Our decisions will determine the fate of biodiversity

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Countering the impacts on biodiversity from poverty in many countries and over-consumption in a few countries

• The gap between rich and poor has become extreme, and this has led to political and economic inequalities and are resistant to change.

• Wide-scale resource depletion disproportionately affects developing countries, and inhibits far too many people from attaining an acceptable standard of living (Fig. 18.1).

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Fig. 18.1 this shantytown on the edge of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil has no running water, or waste disposal services.

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Fig 18.2 fertility rates are declining worldwide, and are projected to be just 2.5 children per woman by 2025

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Table 18.1 Global status and trends of ecosystem services

• Provisioning services– Food (crops, livestock ), production increase

– Capture fisheries, declining due to over-harvest

– Fiber (Timber, cotton, silk), forest loss in many regions, growth in some

– Genetic resource, biochemicals, water, loss

• Regulating services (Air purification, climate regulation, water regulation, erosion control, water purification, pollination), all declining

• Cultural services (spiritual and religious values, aesthetic values), decline

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Working with uncertainty in ecological, social, economic, and political systems

• Nothing is certain but change.

• Yet uncertainty poses challenges that greatly hamper our ability to manage our use of resources and to conserve biodiversity.

• Uncertainty exists due to the complexity and dynamic nature of ecological systems, and our own limited understanding of mechanisms driving processes at all levels of biodiversity.

• Our challenge is to plan for these ecological uncertainties.

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Political uncertainty• Political uncertainty has been driven by election

cycles where distinct political regimes follow distinct conservation policies.

• To improve our ability to work with the inevitable uncertainties that surround conservation practice, we need to increase our capacity to monitor and understand trends.

• This will involve both developing improved metrics to monitor trends and inform decision-making, and focusing our research to better understand these sources of uncertainty and provide information needed by decision-makers and stakeholders.

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Indicators needed to describe trends and guide policy

• The dominant indicators governing most national and international governance have been economic, and to a lesser extent, social indicators of change.

• The Environmental Sustainability Index (ESI) is one such composite index that tracks the relative success of countries in 21 environmental indicators derived from 6 variables that indicate: (1) the health of environmental systems; (2) degree of stress on ecosystems; (3) vulnerability of human populations to environmental change; (4) the institutional and social capacity in a country to cope with environmental challenges; and (5) the degree to which the country participates in global efforts to reduce environmental damages.

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Table 18.2 the logic behind the selection of indicators, grouped into the five components of the ESI.

1. Environmental systems, its vital environmental systems are maintained at healthy levels, and improving.

2. Reducing environmental stresses, the levels of anthropogenic stresses are low.

3. Reducing human vulnerability, people and social systems are not vulnerable to environmental disturbances that affect basic human well-being.

4. Social and institutional capacity, foster effective responses to environmental challenges

5. Global stewardship, cooperate with other countries to manage common environmental problems.

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ESI• The ESI was designed to reflect each of these distinct

areas because sustainability is seen as arising not only from wise management of natural resources and conservation of biodiversity, but also from healthy social and economic systems (Table 18.2).

• The composite scores allow a relative ESI ranking of 146 countries (Fig. 18.3). – The countries with the highest rankings are all those with

substantial natural resources, but low population density and high capacity for governance.

– The lowest-ranking countries face numerous challenges, both due to human mismanagement of natural resources and difficult environmental conditions.

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Research approaches needed to inform decision-making

• To help define the responses of species, ecosystems and other biological conservation targets to threats and to potential interventions clearly enough to guide management actions.

• Scientists have not been in sufficient collaboration with policymakers, stakeholders and citizens to understand the critical questions. Thus many have called for conservation scientists to answer the call for public ecology and to engage in the social contract to contribute to society by working to solve our most pressing problems.

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• Conservation practice necessarily must be tailored to distinct situations, yet we also need to search for commonalities and contingent guiding principles that can help us prioritize and plan.

• Poff et al. (2003) suggest several means for accomplishing this including: (1) conducting large-scale experiments in the context of adaptive management; (2) comparative analyses of case studies to help us understand which ecosystem responses to threats or to conservation interventions are general, and which are context specific; and (3) engaging stakeholders in cooperative ventures of observation and experimentation that engage public support of learning through conservation practice.

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How do we overcome uncertainties that hinder decision-making

• Many widely used decision-making methods are well suited to helping sort through uncertainties, or can be made to support better outcomes if modified to incorporate ecological economic principles.– These practices help reveal uncertainties, allow stakeholders to

discuss them, and place them in a context that facilitates decision-making.

• Biodiversity loss and degradation has increased uncertainty for human societies, leading to negative consequences for health, food security, social relations, and material well-being.

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Millennium ecosystem Assessment (MA)

• The MA emphasized that the use of decision-making methods that adopt a pluralistic perspective are particularly helpful as they allow exploration among differing viewpoints, and can be conducted at any spatial scale.

• Use the best available information

• Ensure that the basis and process for decision-making is open and transparent.

• Ensure the effective and informed participation

• Recognize that not all values at stake can be quantified( 量化 ), and thus quantification can provide a false objectivity in decision-making processes that have significant subjective elements.

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Millennium ecosystem Assessment (MA)

• Strive for efficiency, but not at the expense of effectiveness

• Consider equity and vulnerability in terms of the distribution of costs and benefits.

• Ensure accountability and provide for regular monitoring and evaluation.

• Consider cumulative and cross-scale effects and, in particular, assess trade-offs across different ecosystem services.

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Responding to intensification of threats

• One additional way to handle uncertainty in conservation planning is to explicitly prepare for intensification of threats and synergistic effects among them.

• Essentially this means broadening our sense of uncertainty even farther, which is often accomplished by creating plausible scenarios of change, and evaluating what kinds of conservation actions may be needed in light of these scenarios.

• The need for such precautionary thinking is obvious particularly when considering the wild card of climate change.

• Historical analysis may be an effective tool to inform conservation planning in the face of climate change.

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The scenarios by the MA• Order from strength. This scenario represents a

regionalized and fragmented world that is concerned with security and protection, emphasizes primarily regional markets, pays little attention to public goods, and takes a reactive approach to ecosystem problems.

• Global Orchestration. This scenario depicts a globally connected society that focuses on global trade and economic liberalization and takes a reactive approach to ecosystem problems but that also takes strong steps to reduce poverty and inequality and to invest in public good such as infrastructure and education.

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• Adapting Mosaic. In this scenario, regional water-shed-scale ecosystems are the focus of political and economic activity. Local institutions are strengthened and local ecosystem management strategies are common; societies develop a strongly proactive approach to the management of ecosystems.

• Techno Garden. This scenario depicts a globally connected world relying strongly on environmentally sound technology, using highly managed, often engineered, ecosystems to deliver ecosystem services, and taking a proactive approach to the management of ecosystems.

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Are conservation efforts succeeding and how can we improve?

• Five general categories

1. Direct protection

2. Species and ecosystem management and restoration

3. Policy, laws, advocacy, and enforcement

4. Education and outreach

5. Economic and social incentives ( 激勵 )

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Fig. 18.5 Biodiversity conservation benefits from a diversity of approaches that act to modify direct and indirect threats, and achieve target conditions.

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Enhancing conservation under the US endangered species act

• The us endangered species act (ESA) is a powerful conservation law that was developed and is applied using sound science.

• The application of the ESA is continually improved by reviews from the primary government agencies in charge of the Act and by independent teams of scientists.

• The depth of scientific understanding of threatening process and their relationship to species decline strongly influenced the quality and effectiveness of conservation planning.

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Fig. 18.6 Population trends for US threatened and endangered species were more often improving when their recovery plans had been fully implemented.

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Limited implementation and funding of conservation programs globally

• Only 5% of conservation plans for birds are fully implemented, although an additional 63% are partially implemented.– Of these, 6% have been strongly beneficial, while an

additional 35% have shown some benefit.

– Unfortunately, no improvement has been seen in 35% of the cases, despite partial implementation of recovery plans.

• Generally, most plans that have been fully implemented are showing benefits but all those cases in which no benefits has been observed are ones in which the conservation plans are only partially implemented.

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Fig. 18.7 The costs of existing conservation programs are generally not met in most areas of the world.

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Will we meet the 2010 goals of the convention for biological diversity?

• Representative of 190 countries committed to working to meet the goals met at the 2002 Johannesburg World Summit on Sustainable Development (Box 18.1).– Goal 1 Promote the conservation of the biological diversity

of ecosystems, habitats and biomes• Target 1.1 at least 10% of each of the world’s ecological

regions effectively conserved.• Target 1.2 areas of particular importance to biodiversity

protected

– Goal 2 Promote the conservation of species diversity• Target 2.1 restore, maintain, or reduce the decline of

populations of species of selected taxonomic groups.• Target 2.2 status of threatened specie improved.

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• Goal 3 Promote the conservation of genetic diversity

• Goal 4 Promote sustainable use and consumption

• Goal 5 pressures from habitat loss, land use change and degradation, and unsustainable water use reduced

• Goal 6 Control threats from invasive alien specie

• Goal 7 Address challenges to biodiversity form climate change and pollution

• Goal 8 Maintain capacity of ecosystems to deliver goods and services and support livelihoods

• Goal 9 Maintain socio-cultural diversity of indigenous and local communities

• Goal 10 Ensure the fair and equitable sharing of benefits arising out of the use of genetic resources

• Goal 11 Parties have improved financial, human, scientific, technical, and technological capacity to implement the convention

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Fig. 18.8 Biodiversity conservation projects should be designed within an adaptive framework.

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Influencing people’s habits: reducing destructive impacts

• Success in conservation in part requires convincing people to reduce their destructive habits, and offering them some palatable alternatives.

• But how do we get most people to change?

• Although many citizens are concerned about the environment, and care about biodiversity in a broad sense, few seem motivated to make substantial lifestyle changes.

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無知是福氣

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Fig. 18.9 Most people have a habit of denying the ills of our future, and refuse the sacrifices that will be required.

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Table 18.3 the Talloires declaration 10-point action plan

1. Increase awareness of environmentally sustainable development

2. Create an institutional culture of sustainability3. Educate for environmentally responsible citizenship4. Foster environmental literacy for all5. Practice institutional ecology6. Involve all stakeholders7. Collaborate for interdisciplinary approaches8. Enhance capacity of primary and secondary schools9. Broaden service and outreach nationally and

internationally10.Maintain the movement

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Making sustainable choices more attractive

• A major challenge for conservation is to find the means to make sustainable choices more attractive to people.– Development is driven by demand and profit.

• Another tool that may help change people’s attitudes and habits is conservation advertising.– Advertising is a multi-billion dollar business in most

developed countries, and is mainly designed to foster consumption of products.

– WWF-UK and the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) have been creating effective posters that encourage the public to become involved in conservation – from helping reducing fisheries impacts, living more sustainable, and appreciating the ecosystem services for wild nature.

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Encouraging conservation through incentives ( 獎勵 )

• Shifting economic incentives for conservation

• Motivating behavior through appeal to moral/religious beliefs and the social sanctions and approval that come form acting in accordance with these beliefs.

• Costanza et al (1997) calculated as a low estimate that ecosystem services globally provide an average of US$33 trillion per year, combined with a worldwide GNP of US$18 trillion.

– The total economic value lost by habitat conversation annually was computed to be on the order of US$250 billion in the first year, and for ever year into the future.

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• The costs of expanding the world network of protected areas to include 15% of all regions, and a network of marine reserves that covers 30% of the total area of the marine realm would cost about US$45 billion per year, and would protect ecosystem services valued at over US$4500 billion.

– This is a ratio of roughly 100:1; a beneficial return on a conservation investment.

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Fostering sustainable use

• Sustainability that allows for conservation of biodiversity must involve increases in sustainable practices in the largest sectors of human impacts – agriculture, fisheries, forestry, and urban systems.

• Sustainable practices are better promoted when individuals and institutions serve to enhance communication and translation of information among all interested parties.

• Good governance is critical to ensure that sustainable practices are a priority.

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Fig. 18.10 successful conservation increasingly depends on a combination of good governance and scientifically-based management strategies that are widely communicated, targeting improvements both in the status of biodiversity and the capacity of local populations to govern sustainably.

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Our decisions will determine the fate of biodiversity

• The decisions we make over the coming decade will strongly influence how much degradation of biodiversity occurs throughout this century (Fig. 18.11).

• We need to promote radical changes in practices to reduce population growth and consumption, and to conserve biodiversity and improve human welfare throughout the globe.

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Fig. 18.11 Our decisions over the next decade will commit the world to a path where a decrease in biodiversity could be drastic or moderate.

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問題與討論

Japalura@hotmail.com

• Ayo 台南 NUTN 站 http://myweb.nutn.edu.tw/~hycheng/