Adaptation to Climate Change in the Water Resource Sector in a Semi-Arid Region

Prof. Emer. Mordechai Shechter

Dean, School of Sustainability, Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) HerzliyaSenior Research Fellow, NRERC, University of HAIFA

Head, The Israeli Climate Change Information Center (ICCIC)

Sustainability Summit WorkshopMarch 2013

מרכז ידע להיערכות לשינויי אקלים בישראלICCIC- Israel Climate Change Information Center

Background ICCIC Climate Change in Israel Water Resources Economics Aspects The impact of climate change on vegetative

agriculture in Israel – VALUE Model

Agenda

Water is an economic

good

4

Delinking Scarcity

(Climate, Aridity) from Supply

National Overview 1996 - Israel is a party to the UNFCCC.

2004 - Israel is a party to the Kyoto Protocol. Israel is committed to contribute to the global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and combat harmful impacts of climate change. However, Israel was not included in the list of the obligated countries.

2009 – U.N. Climate Change Conference (COP15) in Copenhagen. Mr. Peres, Israel's President, declared Israel Setting a target for 20% reduction in GHG emissions by 2020 compared to a business as usual scenario. Israel's government decided to prepare a climate change plan for

Israel and establish a Ministerial Committee on Environmental Protection and Climate Change. The Israel Ministry of Environmental Protection is in charge of coordinating these activities and fulfilling Israel's commitments in the fields of mitigation and adaptation.

Israel’s Environmental Policy

Five main landmarks in Israel's environmental policy during the past decade: Setting a target for assimilation of renewable

energy in Israel. Paving the path towards sustainable development

policy. Setting responsibilities and obligations for reduction

of air pollution. Preparing a climate change plan for Israel. Setting a target for 20% reduction in GHG

emissions by 2020 compared to a business as usual scenario.

Israeli Climate Change Information Center (ICCIC)

A consortium funded by Israel’s Ministry of Environmental Protection in March 2011, based at University of Haifa, in conjunction with scientists from Tel Aviv University, Technion (IIT), and Neaman Institute for Advanced Policy Research.

Serve as the Focal Point for all of the Country's state-of-the-art Knowhow in CC potential impacts and adaptation capacity.

Investigate the potential for exporting experience and knowhow to the developing world.

ICCIC focused on the following sectors and cross-cutting issues: Regional and local climate scenarios Water resources Public health Biodiversity Urban planning and “green” buildings Geo-strategic aspects Economics

The 7 teams of scientists were accompanied by steering committees composed of experts from the academia, government ministries, industry and NGOs.

The 7 teams acted as a multi-disciplinary think tank.

Israeli Climate Change Information Center (ICCIC)

ICCIC report

Reflects the existing knowledge regarding the implications of climate change on Israel.

Based on global and local scientific research and professional publications.

Includes the identification of the existing research gaps and provides detailed recommendations about prioritized research requirements (short-term and long-term).

Prepared by professional experts who each had a special steering committee. The committees included experts from the academia, government ministries

and industry. The goal of these steering committees was to act as “sectoral” think tanks.

ICCIC Final Report

Focuses on two main issues: The proposed national adaptation policy in the relevant areas Detailed international marketing of the ICCIC activities.

Work Process Definition of various measures to cope with climate change Determine of the economic resources that should be invested Definition of "No Regret“ Policies - even if the effects of climate

change turn out to be less severe.

Climate Change in Israel

Israel Climate characteristics: The northern part : Mediterranean climate. The southern part: an arid climate. In between: a narrow belt having a semi-arid climate.

Climate change in Israel: An average warming of 0.4 to 0.8 degrees Celsius per decade for the

coming century, varying according to the area and the season. Rainfall total is expected to decrease in most areas, but the trend is not

statistically significant. The frequency of extreme weather events, drought years, floods and heat

waves are expected to increase. The main effect of the anticipated changes is the increased uncertainty

and diversion from 'business as usual' (BAU) weather.

18002000

3400

3000

2600

2200

1600

18001600

20002200

340030002600

1600

1800Annual Average

Potential Evaporation, mm

Annual AveragePotential

Evaporation, mm

+800

700

50

100

200

400300

500

600

1800

Ecosystem HydrologyEcosystem Hydrology

12

Source G. Schiller

Average Annual Rainfall (mm)

Average Annual Rainfall (mm)

Precipitation/Potential EvaporationP/PET ranges from 0.5 to 0.015

Rainfall Change Predictions: A1B scenario (IPCC)*

Gol

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m M

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-25.00%

-20.00%

-15.00%

-10.00%

-5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00% 2001-2020 in relation to 1981-20002021-2040 in relation to 1981-20002041-2060 in relation to 1981-2000

*Krichak, S.O., Alpert, P. and Kunin, P. Numerical simulation of seasonal distribution of precipitation over the eastern Mediterranean with a RCM, Clim. Dyn. (2010) 34:47–59.

VALUE Study Results

2001-2020 2021-2040 2041-2060-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5% Land

Rain changes only

Water limitations

Higher freshwater price

Period

% c

hang

e

2001-2020 2021-2040 2041-2060-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5% Total Water

Period

% c

hang

e

2001-2020 2021-2040 2041-2060-16%-14%-12%-10%

-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4% Yield Value

Period

% c

hang

e

2001-2020 2021-2040 2041-2060-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10% Profits

Period

% c

hang

e

Implications of Climate Change on the Water Sector

A significant reduction of water in Lake Kinneret (Sea of Galilee).

The reduction in rainfall in the basin shows a wide variation (Ranging from 300% in the semi arid areas of the basin to 50% in the wetter areas).

In the last few decades, a reduction in rainfall has been documented / measured in the areas that feed the Jordan River,

A significant reduction in precipitation was also found in the southern region of Israel.

Changes in the nature of rainfall and the growth of extreme weather events, is likely to increase flooding and surface run-off, and also reduce the replenishment of water storage.

Israel’s national water carrier:

Completed in 1964, it conveys up to ~350 Mm3

water per year from the Kinneret (Sea of Galilee).

At first 80% for agriculture and 20% for drinking; Currently 80% for drinking and 20% for Agriculture

Led to land use changes, since much land in the center and south became irrigated.

Documented decreases in surface albedo for extensive areas in the center and south may have contributed to surface warming.

The water carrier became the backbone of the national water supply system

Israel has overcome aridity in Agric. by developing water resources

Sea Water Desalination

Source: Tenne 2011

Water Resources - ICCIC’s Policy recommendations

Define strategies, measures and methods which are ranked from the most desirable ("No Regret") to the least desirable ("High Regret").

For each strategy the discussion is based on 3 sources: Research and policy documents from Israel and the World. Adaptation policies (15 adaptation plans are discussed in detail). Experts and stakeholders views (steering committees discussions, symposia,

stakeholders’ survey).

31 main strategies of coping with the climate changes effect on the water sector of Israel

mostly "no regret" strategies and few are "low regret" strategies. The most widely used strategy in Israel’s desalination is classified as a "high

regret" strategy. It is recommended that after 2013, when 600 million cubic meters of desalination-

water will be available for the use of the domestic sector, further desalination must be carefully examined and compared to other strategies that produce cheaper water resources with less environmental impacts.

Research, information collection, education, interpretation, and raising awareness of the public; Precipitation variance issues (spread, quantity and extreme

events) and their effect on recharge Effects of rising temperature on evaporation and on the quality

of water, frequency and duration of draughts, runoff monitoring, water and food safety and in the urban array savings and depreciation

Extensive use of water saving devices, the management of water losses from the piping systems and the reduction of water waste

Wastewater treatment Prevention of water pollution, the repair of contaminated

wells and the preservation of the quality of water-resources

Water friendly planning and the protection of infrastructures

Coping with Climate Change – "No Regret" recommendations

Prioritized Recommendation

Investment in water infrastructure: prevention of leakage, encouraging saving, water-sensitive planning.

Reference Water sector Working group"No Regret" Explanation

Implementation is required in any case - to save water

Benefits Water resources saving

Policy • Allocation of the budget necessary to prevent leakage (Alternatively, perform using billing water corporations)

• Education and advocacy to save• Appropriate Planning

Restrictions • Budget• Awareness• Multiple design and performance factors

Government Offices • Energy and Water• Interior• Construction and Housing• Environmental Protection

Thank you