Post on 12-Mar-2018
Thailand’s Power Development Plan Thailand’s Power Development Plan 20152015(PDP (PDP 20152015))
Mr. Mr. ChavalitChavalit PichalaiPichalaiDirector General, Energy Policy and Planning OfficeDirector General, Energy Policy and Planning Office
ซื(อไฟฟ้าพลงันํ (าต่างประเทศ
7%
ถา่นหินสะอาด (รวมลกิไนต)์
20%
ดเีซล/นํ (ามนัเตา1%
IPP 45%
10%
7%
IPP
EGAT
นําเขา้และแลกเปล ีMยน
SPP(2,405 MW)
(3,637 MW)
Power Generation by Fuel Type in Power Generation by Fuel Type in 20142014
Current Power Generation StatusCurrent Power Generation Status
Imported and Exchange
Clean Coal(inc. Lignite)
Imported Hydro
Diesel/Fuel Oil
Power Generation by Fuel Type Power Generation by Producers
20%
พลงังานหมนุเวยีน
8%
กา๊ซธรรมชาติ64%
IPP
(12,742 MW)
45%
38%
IPP
(15,482 MW)
(13,166 MW)
รวมท ั(งส ิ(น 34,690 MW
1
Natural Gas
Renewable Energy
8%
Total 34,690 MW
PDP2015 Formulation ProcessPDP2015 Formulation Process
Co
mit
tee
Co
mit
tee**
Formulation
Open Public Hearing for PDPOpen Public Hearing for PDP2015 2015 Formulation ProcessFormulation Process
� Chiang Mai̵ 16 September 2014̵ Participants 625
� Bangkok̵ 29 August 2014̵ Participants 817
� Khon Kean̵ 10 September 2014̵ Participants 650
� Suratthani̵ 19 September 2014̵ Participants 556
Public Hearing for Drafted PDPPublic Hearing for Drafted PDP20152015
Principle and Process
Determination for PDP 2015
Su
bS
ub
--Co
mit
tee
Co
mit
tee
Formulation of PDP 2015
Revision Process forPDP 2015
Propose to NEPC**
Public Hearing for Drafted PDPPublic Hearing for Drafted PDP20152015
� Focused Group̵ 8 April 2015̵ Participants 161
� Public Hearing̵ 28 April 2015̵ Participants 557
*Sub-Committee on Load Forecast and Power Development Plan Formulation
**National Energy Policy Council
2
1. Regional and Domestic economic situation which affect domestic
energy consumption in Thailand such as Government’s transportation
infrastructure investment projects and the commencement of ASEAN
Economic Community, AEC, in late 2015.
RATIONALE of the Formulation of PDP 2015RATIONALE of the Formulation of PDP 2015
� Consideration Factors
2. - National Energy Policy Council, NEPC, approved the Framework and
Assumption as a principle for the formulation process of PDP2015
on the 22nd October 2014.
- Formulation of PDP2015 in accordance with the National Economic
and Social Development Plan
- Integration with the formulation of Energy Efficiency Development
Plan, EEDP, and Alternative Energy Development Plan, AEDP.
3
3. Main Objectives
RATIONALE of the Formulation of PDP 2015RATIONALE of the Formulation of PDP 2015
Integration of all Energy Development Plan
Security Economy Ecology
1) Security
• Ensure the Security of all
Power System Components
• Power
Generation, Transmission and
Distribution
• Fuel Diversification to reduce
4
Integrated Regulation Scheme
OilOilEEDPEEDPPDPPDP AEDPAEDP GasGas
Security Economy Ecology• Fuel Diversification to reduce
the risk of fuel dependency
2) Economy
• Appropriate determination
of Power Tariff to reflect the
primary cost
3) Ecology
Reduce / Minimize Ecological
Impact to Environment and
Community
1. Fuel Diversification� Reduce fuel dependence on Natural Gas� Increase the fuel mixed proportion for Clean Coal Technology� Higher proportion of Imported Power from Neighboring Countries� Improved Renewable Energy Sources Percentage in fuel mix� Nuclear Power Plant Projects at the end of PDP2015
2. Appropriate Reserve Margin at above 15 percent of peak power demand
PRINCIPLE for the formulation of PDP2015 PRINCIPLE for the formulation of PDP2015
2. Appropriate Reserve Margin at above 15 percent of peak power demand
3. Power System Infrastructure Investment Projects� Transmission and Distribution Infrastructure to support the development of
AEC and GMS power integration� Development of Smart Grid Technology to optimize the integration of
Renewable Energy Sources
4. Integration with EEDP and AEDP
5
Energy Efficiency Target for Power Sector
100,000 Government
89,672 GWhGWh
PRINCIPLE for the formulation of PDP2015PRINCIPLE for the formulation of PDP2015
Measure Residential
Industrial Business Govern
mentTotal
(GWh)
1. ENCON Act for Designated Factories and Buildings + Specific Energy Consumption
- 10,814 5,654 3,180 19,648
2. Building Energy Code (BEC) - - 11,975 1,711 13,686
3. High and Minimum Energy Performance Standards (HEPs & MEPs)
8,936 6,226 7,609 - 23,760
4 Financial Incentive - 9,133 5,941 - 15,074
5. Promoting Greater Use of LED 3,354 3,303 3,711 1,264 11,632
6
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
25
58
25
59
25
60
25
61
25
62
25
63
25
64
25
65
25
66
25
67
25
68
25
69
25
70
25
71
25
72
25
73
25
74
25
75
25
76
25
77
25
78
25
79
Industrial31,843 GWh (36%)
Residential13,633 GWh (15%)
Business37,052 GWh (41%)
Government7,144 GWh (8%)
3,354 3,303 3,711 1,264 11,632
6. Energy Efficiency Resource Standard (EERS) 1,343 2,367 2,162 - 5,872
Total (GWh) 13,633 31,843 37,052 7,144 89,672
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
20
31
20
32
20
33
20
34
20
35
20
36
Alternative Energy Target
PRINCIPLE for the formulation of PDP2015PRINCIPLE for the formulation of PDP2015
Type Solar Wind HydroMini
Hydro(<12MW)
MSW Biogas Energy Crops Biomass TotalTotal
Installed Capacity 2014
1,298.5 224.5 2,906.4 142 65.7 311.5 - 2,541.8 77,,490490..44
InstalledCapacity
20366,000 3,002 2,906.4 376 500 600 680 5,570 1919,,636344..44
MegawattsMegawatts
70
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036
Energy
Crops
Solar
Wind
Hydro
MSWBiogas
Biomass
MegawattsMegawatts
Benefit of RE fuel cost to community economy
PRINCIPLE for the formulation of PDP2015PRINCIPLE for the formulation of PDP2015
Biogas (Energy Crops)
8
Biogas (Energy Crops)
Biomass
MSW
Total
Mil
lio
n B
ah
t
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
PRINCIPLE for the formulation of PDP2015PRINCIPLE for the formulation of PDP2015
� Estimation of Fuel Mix for Power Generation in PDP2015
PDP PDP 20152015PDPPDP20102010
revrev33
FuelFuel TypeTypeSepSep 20142014
(percentage)(percentage)
20262026
(percentage)(percentage)
20362036
(percentage)(percentage)
20302030
(percentage)(percentage)
ImportedImported HydroHydro 7 10-15 15 – 20 10
Clean CoalClean Coal 20 20-25 20 – 25 19
9
Clean CoalClean Coal ((inc.inc. LigniteLignite))
20 20-25 20 – 25 19
RenewableRenewable 8 10-20 15 – 20 8
NaturalNatural GasGas 64 45-50 30 – 40 58
NuclearNuclear - - 0 – 5 5
DieselDiesel / / Fuel OilFuel Oil 1 - - -
TOTALTOTAL 100 100 100 100
GWhGWh
393,335
326,119 300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
326,244
Comparison of net Energy Consumptionforecast including Energy Efficiency Measure
Load Forecast from 2015 - 2036
Summary of PDP2015Summary of PDP2015
1. BAU Scenario includes the summation of former and current Energy Efficiency Measure at 22,456 GWh
10
Hamburger Crisis
2. พลงังานไฟฟ้าทีMลดลงตามมาตรการในแผนอนุรกัษพ์ลงังาน จากกรณี BAU (GWh)
2558 2559 2564 2569 2574 2579
Base - -548 -7,969 -20,119 -38,446 -67,216
291,519
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036
2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036
Base - -548 -7,969 -20,119 -38,446 -67,216
2. Energy Consumption Reduction from Energy Efficiency
Compared to BAU Scenario (GWh)
1 +2 = 89,672 GWh
เมกะวตัต์เมกะวตัต์
49,457
59,300
49,655 50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
70,000 Comparison of net Power Consumptionforecast including Energy Efficiency Measure
9,645
Summary of PDP2015Summary of PDP2015
MegawattsMegawatts
11
Hamburger Crisis
พลงัไฟฟ้าสงูสดุทีMลดลงตามแผนอนุรกัษพ์ลงังาน จากกรณี BAU (MW)
2558 2559 2564 2569 2574 2579
Base - -86 -1,218 -2,964 -5,554 -9,645
49,457
44,424
49,655
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036
Investment Saving for 10,000 MW in 2036 or 500 MW/yr throughout the plan
Summary of PDP2015Summary of PDP2015
Unit Unit : : MegawattsMegawatts
Installed Capacity at the end of 2014New Installed CapacityRetiredInstalled Capacity at the end of 2036
Installed Capacity 2015-2036 PDPPDP20152015
New Installed Capacity 2015-2036 TotalTotal
37,61257,459
-24,736 70,335
12
New Installed Capacity 2015-2036
Clean Coal Technology
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Gas Turbine
Cogeneration
Renewable
Pumped Storage Hydropower
Imported
TOTAL
TotalTotal
7,390 (9 Plants)
17,478 (15 Plants)
2,000 (2 Plants)
1,250 (5 Plants)
4,119
12,105
2,101
11,016
57,459
Summary of PDP2015Summary of PDP2015
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
พลงังานหมุนเวยีน
พลงันํ (าใหญ่ไทย
พลงันํ (าต่างประเทศ
2%
15%
18%
ลา้นหนว่ย
2%
9%
16%
Renewable
Hydropower
Imported
Hydropower
MWh� Fuel Mix by Energy Generation
130
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
2558 2560 2562 2564 2566 2568 2570 2572 2574 2576 2578
ลิกไนต์
นวิเคลียร์
ถา่นหนินําเข้า
ก๊าซธรรมชาติ
5%
6%
17%
37%
10%
9%
64%
3%6%
7%
7%
15%
51%
9%
Natural Gas
Import Coal
Lignite
Nuclear
2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029
2031 2033 2035 2031 2033 2035 2031 2033 2035 2031 2033 2035
0.319
0.385
0.100
0.200
0.300
0.400
0.500
0.600
Comparison of Carbon Emission per unitkgCO2/kWh
20130.506
PDP2015
PDP2010 Rev3
Summary of PDP2015Summary of PDP2015
� Carbon Emission
0.000
0.100
104,075
133,539
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
25
56
25
57
25
58
25
59
25
60
25
61
25
62
25
63
25
64
25
65
25
66
25
67
25
68
25
69
25
70
25
71
25
72
25
73
25
74
25
75
25
76
25
77
25
78
25
79
kTon
201389,678
Comparison of Accumulate Carbon Emission
PDP2010 Rev3
PDP2015
14
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
20
31
20
32
20
33
20
34
20
35
20
36
4.59 5.265.55
5.0
6.0
7.0Baht/kWh
VSPP Levelised = 0.59
(Discount Rate = 10%) LevelisedTransmission and Distribution Cost
= 0.52 Lev. price 2015-2036 = 4.587 Baht/kWh(Average Growth = 1.89%)
Summary of PDP2015Summary of PDP2015
� Estimation of retailed power tariff
3.92
3.75
3.71
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036
Levelised Capital Cost = 1.32
Levelised Fuel Cost= 2.16
15
35.2%33.9%
33.8%
36.6% 36.3%
35.1%
37.1%
37.4%
39.4%
36.1%
30.4%
34.9%
33.2%32.5%
34.7%33.8%
32.0%
34.7%
32.9%34.1%
30.4%30%
35%
40%
45% High portion of Reserve Margin (RM)
� GDP Growth Rate slows down from average 4.49 to 3.94 percent/year
� Improved Energy Efficiency Measure for PDP2015 at 100 percent compared to former version at 20 percent
EE50%
PDP 2015
Summary of PDP2015Summary of PDP2015
� Reserve Margin
16.4%21.4%
19.6%18.7% 18.1%
17.8%16.9%
16.4%
16.3%16.5%
16.5%16.2%16.4% 16.4% 16.2%
24.7%
24.6%
20.5%
19.7%18.4%
17.3%
15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.3% 15.3%
24.8%
18.5%
16.3%15.3% 15.6% 15.4%
15.3% 15.2%15.2% 15.2% 15.2%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
20
31
20
32
20
33
20
34
20
35
20
36
PDP 2010 rev. 3
EE50%
16
1. Key measure to decrease reserve margin is so difficult because many
projects are binded from the previous PDP plan.
2.Emphasize on energy efficiency, renewable energy and fuel
diversification to increase security and decrease environmental
impacts, especially the global warming.
Key Success factors from PDP2015Key Success factors from PDP2015
impacts, especially the global warming.
3. Retailed power tariff is appropriated reflecting the primary cost.
4. The Committee on Energy Policy Administration is assigned by the
National Energy Policy Council, NEPC, to find out the measure to
solve high reserve margin.
17