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Strategijski izbor: metode i evaluacija
L 7, 8 i 9
EFBL, December, 2010
Ciljevi predavanja
• Identifikacija nivoa i metoda strategijskih pravaca/izbora..., organski rast, spajanje i akvizicija, i strategiski savezi...
• Tri kriterija uspjesnosti za ocjenu strarategijkih opcija: pogodnost, prihvatljivost i izvodljivost
• Korišenje niza tehnika za procjenu strategiske opcije
Importance of corporate cultural
• Managers have a set of core beliefs and assumptions which are specific and relevant to the organisations in which they work
• This has been called ideational (the process of creating new ideas) culture, a mind set, an interpretive schema, a recipe or paradigm
• This paradigm as a filter to the ways decisions are made
‘ Organizational culture includes ideational and material elements.
• Ideational culture refers to ideas, symbols, values, norms, principles, beliefs, ways of feeling, thinking and acting, as well as a stock of knowledge and a world view constructed by a group which, over time become convention.
• Material culture comprises the material products of a culture, as well as the tools used to construct the artefacts in question: – physical buildings of the bureaucracy, plus the tools
available for public servants to do their job, such as offices, desks, files, paper, pens, information systems, telephones, faxes, computers and the like’
The Cultural Dimension
• A “way of doing things” in the organisation guides strategic direction
• Strategies evolve in terms of a core set of shared assumptions based on past experience, values and beliefs held by the organisation’s members
• The shared assumptions guide– the selection of goals and objectives
– the identification of strategic issues
– the selection of information
– the selection of strategies
The Roots of Culture
• Geography
• Organisation’s core activity
• Organisation’s History
• Organisation’s structure
Three Layers of Culture (1)
• Values– often written down– statements about purpose, mission, objectives– usually general/vague (e.g. equal employment
opportunities)
• Beliefs– more specific– usually overt/talked about– e.g. the company should not trade with some
countries
Three layers of culture (2)
• Taken-for-granted assumptions– this is the real “core” of culture– difficult to identify and explain– often linked to the raison d'être of the
organisation (e.g. police forces are needed to catch criminals)
– Insights into the paradigm can be gained by analysing
– the elements of the Cultural Web
Controlsystems
Stories Symbols
Ritualsand routines
TheParadigm
Powerstructures
Organisationalstructures
The Cultural Web
Rituals &routines
StoriesSymbols
Control system
Organisationstructure
Power structure
Management Reality
Employee Reality
Forms of Reality
Exhibit 10.4 Strateške opcije
Okviri Strateškog izbora (SI)
• Nivoi SI
• Upravljanje portfolijem i netvorkom
• Poslovni nivo SI
• Diferencijacija Liderstva
• Kulturni uticaj
Razlika između korporativne i biznis stratgeije
Nivo profita iznad nivoa
konkurentnosti
Kako se stvara profit
atraktivnost industrije
Naš izbor
(Kompanije)
Kunkurentska prednost
Kako postici održati
konkurentnost ?
Korporativna stratgeija
Biznis stratgeija
Korporativni nivo
• Efikasne odluke oko djelatnosti firme
• Proizvodni obim – kako/u kojoj mjeri firma treba da bude specijalizovana?
• Geografski obim – Koje je najbolje geografsko širenje firme i njenih aktivnosti?
• Vertikalni obim – koje su to vertikalne aktivnosti koje firma treba da obuhvati?
Funkcije korportaivnog nivoa menadžmenta
odluke oko diverzifikacije, investicija i alokacija resursa na pojedine dijelove korp.
Asistiranje u formulaciji biznis stratgeije
Monitoring i kontrola poslovanja
podjela i transfer resursa i sposobnosti
Upravljanjeveza
izmeđukompanije
Smjernice ikontrolapojedinih
preduzeća
Upravljanje korporativnim
portfolijem
HIGH
Model za planiranje portfolija: The BCG Growth-Share Matrix
LOW
LOW
An
nu
al r
eal r
ate
of
mar
ket
gro
wth
(%
)
Relative market share
Earnings: high stable
Cash flow: high stable
Strategy: milk
Earnings: low, unstable
Cash flow: neutral or negative
Strategy: divest
Earnings: high stable, growing
Cash flow: neutral
Strategy: invest for growth
Earnings: low, unstable, growing
Cash flow: negative
Strategy: analyse to determine whether business can be grown into a
star, or will degenerate into a dog
HIGH
??
Strategija biznis nivoa
• Konkuretnost firme u okviru industrije ili tržišta
• Ako firma prosperira u okviru industrije ili tržišta mora uspostaviti konkurentsku prednost nad rivalima
Izvor konkurentske prednosti
Prednost troskova
Diverzifikacija
Kunkurentska Prednost
Slični proizvodi
Po nižoj cijeni
Prima cijena
Za jedinstven proizvod
Strategijski izbori – konceptualni pristupi
Competitive AdvantageCompetitive Advantage The Discipline of Market The Discipline of Market
LeadersLeadersMichael Porter Michael Porter Treacy and WiersemaTreacy and Wiersema
• Overall Cost Leadership Operational Excellence
• Differentiation Product Leadership
• Focus Customer Intimacy
Liderstvo u trškovima
• Cijene proizvoda jednake ili iste kao kod konkurenata iz razloga nižih troškova
• Ulazak na novo tržište sa nižim cijenama od konkurenata
• Ova politika je vrlo korisna u okolnostima kada je tržište osjetljivo na cijene
• To može da spriječi ulaz novih firmi na tržište
EasyJet: ‘no-frills’ strategija strategija zasnovana na cijeni
• Osnovan 1995
• 2003- 74 aviona, 105 ruta, 38 aeordora, 20mil putnika PA
• Pozadian uspjeha, smanjenje troškova ‘kozmentke’– no frills
• Promet 1.4milij –profit 144mil
• Business model: sigurnost i servis, utkan u nagalšen i dinamičnu polsovnu kulturu u cilju kontinuiranog rasta
Ključni aspekti biznis modela I • Zgusnuti raspored od tačke A do tačke B
– Povezivanje glavnih aerodroma
– Velika frenkventost
– Atraktivni za poslovne ljude i odmor
• Izražen i uočljiv brend podržan sa inovativnom promocijom
• Dinamične cijene prevoza
– Jednostavna struktura: ranije bukirate manje platite
– Cilj biti naj-jeftiniji na ruti
– Ditirano potražnjom, ‘yield’ menadžment sistem, maksimalna iskorištenost kapaciteta, potpuna kontrola inventara
• 100% direktna prodaja – eJ ne plaća proviziju posrednicima
– Preko 90% prodaje on-line
Ključni aspekti biznis modela II
• Efikasnost iskorištenosti kapaciteta– Veliki, moderni, ekonomični i relativno
‘environmtaly friendly’ avioni– Novi Airnus A319 avioni kombinovani sa
‘penzionisanim’, starom generacijom Boeing 737
• ‘skelabilnost’ – ‘prostor’ za rast biznisa – Održiv visoki nivo rasta je skelabilnost
operatinosti kompanije – Ovo smanjuje marginalne troškove
inkremtalnog rasta
Differentiation
• A differentiation strategy is based upon persuading customers that a product/service is superior to that offered by competitors
• Products/services will command a premium price
• Above average profits can be earned• Also creates an additional barrier to entry to
new businesses wishing to enter the industry
Focus• A focus strategy is aimed at a segment of the
market for a product/service rather than at the whole market
• Requires a lower investment in resources compared with a strategy aimed at an entire market
• It allows specialisation and greater knowledge of the segment being served
• It makes entry to a new market less costly and more simple
Karakteristike liderstva u troškovima i strategije diverzifikacije
Izvorna strategija ključni elementi potrebe za resursima i organizacijom
COST Scale-efficient plants. Access to capital. Process
LEADERSHIP Design for manufacture. engineering skills. Frequent Control of overheads & reports. Tight cost control. R&D. Avoidance of Specialization of jobs and marginal customer functions. Incentives for accounts. quantitative targets.
DIFFERENTIATION Emphasis on branding Marketing. Product and brand advertising, engineering. Creativity. design, service, and Product R&D quality. Qualitative measurement
and incentives. Strong cross-functional
coordination.
Game theory: Dilema zatvorenika
Ne priznaje
Priznaje
Ne priznaje
5, 5 -4, 10
Priznaje 10, -4 1, 1
U biznis, priznati/ne priznati može biti strategija zajednickog interesa i strategija sebičnosti
This game has fascinated game theorists for a variety of reasons:.• Firstly, it is a simple representation of a variety of important situations.
For example, instead of confess/not confess we could label the strategies "contribute to the common good" or "behave selfishly.“– game could describe the alternative of two firms competing in the
same market, and instead of confess/not confess we could label the strategies "set a high price" and "set a low price." Naturally it is best for both firms if they both set high prices, but best for each individual firm to set a low price while the opposition sets a high price.
• Secondly, it is self-evident how an intelligent individual should behave. No matter what a suspect believes his partner is going to do, it is always best to confess. If the partner in the other cell is not confessing, it is possible to get 10 instead of 5. If the partner in the other cell is confessing, it is possible to get 1 instead of -4. Yet the pursuit of individually sensible behavior results in each player getting only 1 unit of utility, much less than the 5 units each that they would get if neither confessed. This conflict between the pursuit of individual goals and the common good is at the heart of many game theoretic problems.
•
• A thirdly, it changes in a very significant way if the game is repeated, or if the players will interact with each other again in the future. For example that after this game is over, and the suspects either are freed or are released from jail they will commit another crime and the game will be played again. In this case in the first period the suspects may reason that they should not confess because if they do not their partner will not confess in the second game...this conclusion is not valid, since in the second game both suspects will confess no matter what happened in the first game.– However, repetition opens up the possibility of being rewarded
or punished in the future for current behavior, and game theorists have provided a number of theories to explain the obvious intuition that if the game is repeated often enough, the
suspects ought to cooperate.
Hibridna strategija
• Bazira se na diferenciranju i nižoj cijeni
• Prednost u ovim situacijama – Veliki obim – Strategija ulaza– ...
• Primer IKEA– Prednosti u odnosu na konkurenciju?
Šta je strategijska methoda?
Strategijka methoda je način za sprovođenje strategije.
Organski rast/razvoj Spajanje i akvizicija
Strateški savezi
Šta je organski rast / razvoj?
Organski rast ili razvoj je način za ostvarivanje strategije organizacije
na osnovu njenih vlastitih kapaciteta / sposobnosti
Razlozi za korištenje organskog rasta /razvoja
• Specifičnost proizvoida (visoke tehničke karaktresitike)
• Znanje i sposobnost razvoja
• Blagovremeno investiranje u rast i razvoj
• Minimiziranje poremećajana tražištu
• Priroda tržišta
Šta je spajanje i akvizicija?
Spajanje je obostrano dogovoreno rješenje za formiranje joint veture između dvije
organizacije sa zajedničkim vlasništvom
Akvizicija je metod u kojoj jedna organizacija
preuzima vlasništvo nad drugom
Motivi za spajanje i akviziciju u kontekstu poslovnog makro-
okruženja
Brzina ulazka na tržište Nivo konkuretnosti
Mogućnosti konsolidacije Finacijsko tržište
Motivi za spajanje i akviziciju u kontekstu sposobnosti organizacije
Iskorištavanje postojećih staretegijskih
sposobnostiEfikasnost trošova
Sticanje novih sposobnosti
Očekivanja interesnih grupa od spajanja i akvizicije
Očekivanja institucionalnih
itneresnih grupa Menadžerske ambicije
Spekulativni motivi
Pitanjima koja se tiču uspjeh akvizicije i spajanja
• Dali akvizicija otvara nove mogućnosti za organizaciju?
• Može li se poboljšati predanost (ambicije) (operativnih) menadžera?
• Dali će očekivana sinergija biti realizirana?
• Da li postoje problemi kulturnih razlika i povezivanja dviju organizacija?
Šta je strateški savez?
Strateški savez način na koji dvije ili više organizacija udružuje resurse i aktivnosti
sa ciljem realizacije i sprovodjenja strategije.
Motivi koji potiču formiranje strateških saveza
Potreba za stavarenje kritične mase
Ko-specijalizacija
Sticanje znanja – iskustava
Tipovi strateških saveza
Joint ventures
Consortia
Networks
Franchising
Licensing
Subcontracting
Exhibit 10.3 Types of Strategic Alliance
The Ansoff matrix- mogućnost/strategija rasta companije
Kriteriji uspješnosti strateških opcija
Pogodnost
Strateško pozicioniranje
Prihvatljivost
Performanse-očekvani rezultatai
Izvodljivost
Stratške mogućnosti
Pogodnost
• Pogodnost ili priklandnost se odnosi na ona pitanja koja adresiraju uslove/ okolnosti u kojma org posluje – strateško pozicioniranje
• Uključuje detaljnu analizu poslovnog okruženja, strateške sposobnosti i racionalnost (obrazloženje)
• Za razumijevanje pogodnosti strateških opcija možemo koristiti koncepte strateškog pozicioniranja
Koncepti za razumijevanje stargeijske pogodnosti (pogledati originalnu tabelu u kljizi!!!)
• PESTEL razumijevanje: mogućnosti rasta/stagnacije-adresiranje okolnosti e.g konvergencija industrije (vertikalna intregracija)
• Scenariji – neizvjesnost i rizik – potreba za rezervnim planom
• 5-snaga – snage konkurentnosti – razvoj barijera za nove biznise
• Strategijske grupe – atraktivnost SG, mobilnost prepreka – ptreba za re-pozicioniranjem u bolju SG
• Centralne sposobnosti org.- baza konkurentskih prednosti – eliminacija slabosti, exploatacija snaga
• Lanac vrijednosti: potreba za vertikalnom integracijom ili outsoucing – kako će se postići vertikalna integracija
• Mapiranje intresnih grupa – mapiranje IG, moć inetresa- konsekvence za pojedine IG
• Mreza kulturnih elemenata – stavrna prihvatljivost uticaj na izvodljivost – upravljavanje kulturnim razlikama (clash)
Primjeri pogodnosti
• Strateške opcije – Pravci – konsolidacija, tržišna penetracija,
razvoj proizvoda, razvoj tržišta, diverzifikacija– Metode – organski (interni) razvoj, spajanje /
akvizicija, joint development (udruživanje sposobnosti)
• Potrebno je odgovoriti na pitanje: Zašto su ove opcije pogodne u pogledu okruženja, sposobnosti i očekivanja (analiza svih)
• TOWS matrica-identifikacija str. Opcija
External Opportunities(O)1.2.3.4.
External Threats (T)1.2.3.4.
Internal Strengths(S)1.2.3.4.
SO"Maxi-Maxi"
Strategy
Strategies that use strengths to
maximize opportunities.
ST"Maxi-Mini" Strategy
Strategies that use strengths to minimize threats.
Internal Weaknesses (W)1.2.3.4.
WO"Mini-Maxi"
StrategyStrategies that
minimize weaknesses by
taking advantage of opportunities.
WT "Mini-Mini" Strategy
Strategies that minimize weaknesses and avoid threats.
Razumijevanje relativne pogodnosti strategijskih opcija
Methoda Sposobnost
Rangiranje (često se bazira na SWOT analizi), metoda monitoringa implementacije strategije
Ocjena opcija u odnosu na faktore uspješnosti koji se odnose na okruženje, resurse i očekivanja
Rezultati rangiranja za svaku opciju
Stablo odlučivanja Progresivna eliminacija opcija sa uključivanjem novih zahtjeva koje je potrebno ispuniti
Scenariji Opcije su uskladu sa dodatnim scenarijima (rezervni plan)
Prihvatljivost
• Ishod strategije i očekivani rezultati.
• Tri osnovna tipa: – Povrat investicija – Rizik– Reakcija IG- politička dimenzija strategije
Kriterij Konceptualno razumijevanje
Primjer Ograničenost
Povrat inv.
Profitabilnost
Cost-benefit
Realne mogućnosti
SVA(Analiza akcionarskih vrijednosti)
Povrat finc. investicija glavnih projekata
Ukupni cost-benefit uključujući neopipljive vrijednosti Sekvence odlučivanja
Uticaj nove strategoje na akcionarske vrijednosti
ROC (return capital employed)Period odplateDCF (discounted cash flow)
Glavni infrastrukturni projekti Realne mogućnosti za analizu Udruživanje/akvizicija Proocjena novih investicija (biznis)
Aplikativno za diskretne projekteSamo opipljive troškove/benefit
Mjerljivost/kvatificiranje
Tehnički detalji
Rizik
Finacijska racionalna projekcija
Analiza senzitiviteta
Robustnost strategije
Testiranje predpostavki/robustnosti
break- even analiza
Uticaj na likvidnost
Šta ako?’ analiza Odvojeno testiranje pojedinih faktora
Reakcija IG- politička dimenzija strategije
Mapiranje IG Uglavnom kvalitativno
Neki od kriterija za procjenu prihvatljivosti strateških opcija
Assessing Profitability: Return on Capital Employed –employed
resources
Exhibit 10.8 Assessing Profitability: Payback Period –cash injected
Exhibit 10.8 Assessing Profitability: Discounted Cash Flow
Exhibit 10.10 Measures of Shareholder Value
Reakcija Intresnih grupa
Financijsak rekonstrukcija
Akvizicija / povezivanje
Novi Biznis modeli
Outsourcing
Izvodljivost
• Centralno pitanje je: dali je org sposobna ili ima resurse za realizaciju stratgije – Financijska izvodljivost – prognoza protoka
sredstava i potrebnih fondova (break-even analiza), nije pouzdan ali koristan ako se sprovodi ažurno (spreadsheet)
– Razvoj resursa (kako da razvijemo jedinstevene i core sposobnosti)
Zaključak
• Tri generalne metode za razvoj strategije su organski razvoj, spajanja i akvizicija, i savezi
• Uspjeh ili neuspjeh strategija će zavisiti od uspješnosti kriterija prikladnosti, prihvatljivost i izvedivost
• strategija konkurentnosti, pravci i metode strategija moraju biti usklađeni
Key Debate: Merger Madness: How Wisely is Merger Money
Being Spent?
Dodatak
Ovaj dio nije obradjen ali ima indirektne veze sa predhodnim materijalom.
bice objasnjeno detaljnije na sledecem predavanju
E-business strategy model building
http://www-935.ibm.com/services/us/cio/ads/fusion/assets/video/ibm_fusion.mp4
EXPERIMENTATION INTEGRATION TRANSFORMATION E-BUSINESS STRATEGY
No e-business strategy E-business strategy supports current (as is) corporate strategy
E-business strategy supports breakout corporate strategy
CORPORATE STRATEGY
e-business strategy not linked to corporate strategy
E-business strategy subservient to corporate strategy
E-business strategy is a driver of corporate strategy
SCOPE Departmental/functional orientation
Cross-functional participation
Cross enterprise involvement (interconnected customers, suppliers and partners)
PAYOFFS Unclear Cost reduction, business support and enhancement of existing business practices, revenue enhancement
New revenue streams, new business lines, drastic improvements in customer service and customer satisfaction
LEVERS Technological infrastructure and software applications
Business processes People, intellectual capital and relationships, co-operation
ROLE OF INFORMATION
Secondary to technology
Supports process efficiency and effectiveness
Information asymmetries use to create business opportunities
THREE LEVELS OF E-BUSINESS STRATEGY MIGRATION
E-business Strategy Model
Adapted from Hackbarth & Kettinger , 2000
Major Stages
Outputs
Initiate
• Outline scope• Identifystakeholders• Determine
schedule
Project workplan
Diagnose-Current environment IndustryCompany
• Competitive Current business
Assessment strategies• Benchmark Assess
customerE-business RelationshipsTechnology Assess e-
business• Assess technologyBusiness Assess
Partnerships businessPartnerships Current bus
strategies ranking
Opportunities Strengths and and threats weaknesses rankings rankings
Establish Strategy
• Match current business strategies with industry opportunities and threats and company strengths and weaknesses
• SWOT matrix• Brainstorm
alternative e-business strategies
E-business strategy
Transition
• Analyse gap between new and current strategy
• Factor in change readiness assessment and risk analysis
• Consider potential industry responses
• Plot e-business transition strategy milestones
E-business transition strategy
• Stage 1 : Initiate
• Outline scope
• Identify stakeholders
• Determine schedule
• Output : Workplan
E-business Strategy Model
• Stage II Diagnose - Company Analysis
• Identify current business strategies• Assess customers relationships• Assess suppliers relationships• Assess company e-business technologies• Use value chain to identify areas where IT
can add value
• Output : SWOT analysis
E-business Strategy Model
Strategic Priorities
Ranking
Company Opportunity / Threat
ranking
E-Business Strategy
Evaluate
E-business strategies
SWOT Assessment
Industry Strength / Weakness ranking
Stage III - E-Business Strategy
Adapted from Hackbarth & Kettinger , 2000
E-business strategy Status quo Strategy GapMinus Equals
Factor in change
readiness assessment
Factor in cost/
benefit risk analysis
Analysis gap difference between e-business strategy and current strategy
Consider potential industry responses
Plot e-business transition strategy including recommended courses of action and milestones
E-business Transition Strategy
Stage IV - Transition
Adapted from Hackbarth and Kettinger , 2000