WMO: Coping with a changing climate and the use of Social inventions

March 25, 2011Geneva, Switzerland

Michael H. GlantzConsortium for Capacity Building (CCB)

University of Colorado, Boulder First thoughtsDRAFT as of February 8, 2011

Supported by the Rockefeller Foundation

and

A Clinton Global Initiative Commitment 2008

Planet Earth is now Global Warming’s “Ground zero”no place to hide

Seems governments are choosing option (a)

(a)

(b)

(c)

In industrial and agrarian societies

On all continents

Where humans and ecosystems meet

Especially in vulnerable ecosystems

There are also inequities with regard to animals and other living things

We must account for climate-related EQUITY

“All roads lead to Rome”

“Render unto Caesar …”

• Often, damages to life and property that occur during extreme events are blamed on Nature.

• However, it is often not the case.• A portion of those damages can be

placed on human activities that put societies in harm’s way, and …

• We must sort out the proper causes for the various damages, so that appropriate responses can be made to address those true causal factors.

The Challenge: Reaching Every Element of Civil Society

Linking or Sinkinglink scientific concerns about the future with local societal concerns today

Communicating with civil society about the importance of awareness of climate change and it foreseeable impacts is a central factor in making climate change science research findings science that is usable by society, eg, usable science

Social inventions

Ideas and concepts that change human behavior.

What is a Social Invention?

A social invention is a new [concept], law, organization or procedure that changes the ways in which people relate to themselves or to each other, either individually or collectively. Examples: Resilient adaptation, low-carbon society, green Revolution, circle of poison, pathological bureaucracy, virtual water, ecosystem goods and services, tipping points, nature’s bank, blue carbon sinks, clean coal, dead zones, CEPs, ripple effect, climate refugees, win-win, zero sum game, drought follows the plow, forecasting by analogy, green economy, ignore-ance, satisfice,

Social Invention ExamplesGlobal Change

The Blue Marble

The Space Age Social e-networks

http://clairewaghorn.wordpress.com/

Spaceship Earth

Foreseeability• "FORESEEABLE RISK, i.e., risks whose consequences

a person of ordinary prudence would reasonably expect might occur…

• In tort law… a party's actions may be deemed negligent only where the injurious consequences of those actions were foreseeable."

• For example, "established by proof that the actor or person of reasonable intelligence and prudence, should reasonably have anticipated danger to others created by his or her negligent act.“

• "Foreseeability encompasses not only that which the defendant foresaw, but that which the defendant ought to have foreseen."

(Gifis, 1991)

Focus on AOCs

Not on Hotspots!

HOTSPOTS Pyramid

Decisionmaking under foreseeabilityTo run or not to run a stop sign? That is the question.

Forecasting by analogyclimate-related impacts

• This method compares events that have had a similar effect in the recent past to the likely impact of future events associated with climate change, assuming that lessons can be learned from such past experience and then applied to future situations.

• These compared situations can generally share several important characteristics such as time scale, severity, reversibility, impacted sector, or aggravating factors, and point out how well actual adaptation response worked or did not work.

Definitions of adaptation

• UNFCCC: adaptation refers to climate change related impacts

– UNFCCC definition: "adaptation" refers only to new actions in response to climate changes that are attributed to greenhouse gas emissions.

• IPCC: adaptation refers to any changes

Seasonalityglobal warming & “acclimatizing” seasons: Seasons aren’t what they used to be!

(as we’ve come to expect them)

Like ecosystems, human activities are also influenced by the natural flow of the seasons.

More so by humans, because they have expectations about that flow that really determine their responses, good or bad, to that natural flow.

Adaptation{no recommendations without SWOC ramifications}

Recommendations are just suggestions.

To increase the chance they will be implemented, it is necessary to identify the potential consequences of not acting on them.

We must consider “mitigating the impacts of adaptation”

• Adaptation is an on-going process, not just a one-time event.

• Each adaptive strategy or tactic will generate its own set of impacts.

• Societies must identify second- and third-order impacts of adaptation (downstream impacts).

Some living things can’t adapt

Rates of change are as important as the change itself

The future is arriving …earlier than expected!

2020 is the new 2050

Creeping environmental change{Everything we touch}

Focus on creeping changes and rates of change instead of searching for a “dread factor” to spark policy changes.

X

Rates of change can be as important as the magnitude of change

Ecosystems good & services …

for human well being• The Millennium Assessment calls for ecosystems goods and services for environmental well being.• This suggests that ecosystems have little value if not of use to society.

• It should be reversed: Human goods & services for ecosystems well being.

• Societies need Ecosystems more than they need societies.

Social Dimension of Climate Change versus Climate Dimension of Social Change:

what’s driving what?Do you get the same answer?

• A popular phrase is “the social dimension of climate change.”• Yet, society is also changing and many aspects of its changes affect the global climate.• As a result, I believe we should use the phrase “the climate dimension of social change.”

Definitions of Resilience:3 variations on a theme

• Ability … to withstand the consequences.

• Power to recovery original shape & size.

• Capacity to adapt without harm.

We may not agree on what resilience is, But we do know what it isn’t !

Dynamitefishing in the Philippines

Defining resilient adaptation

A process that is a flexible, incremental approach to adjusting to and coping with the foreseeable adverse (or beneficial impacts) of an uncertain changing climate.………………

• Identify indicators to evaluate a societal adaptation act or process if it meets explicit criteria that shows that the act is resilient.

Resilient Adaptation as a “social invention”

• Flexible, shifting interventions • Plasticity• Requires innovation • Requires improvisation• It attempts to “glimpse” the future• It brings stability while coping with

changes in resilience

Ignorance vs. “Ignore-ance” what you don’t know (or ignore) can still hurt you

• Ignorance is not knowing something.

• “Ignore-ance” is knowing something and not caring about it

Which one is this?

wake up cat video

Early warnings about … early warning systems

Shanghai Harbor

20041988

Climate is not the only thing that is changing

Storms in Spaceno place on the planet to hide

Late Warning Systems are as important as early warning systems

Escaping forest fire, Russia.Facebook video

ImprovizationSituational responses to a quick onset environmental change

Yangtze River Floods, 1999: Is this societal resilience?This is improvization.

Lessons learned about lessons learned … about the disasters

• After each disaster lessons are identified and reported.

• Similar disasters also end up with many of the earlier identified lessons being re-stated.

• Lessons identified are not lessons learned.

• The phrase lessons learned is part of the problem because people think someone is applying the lessons but in reality no one has the responsibility to do so.

Isn’t Hindsight an aspect of Foresight?

The Question:

Does climate history have a future?

The Answer:

Yes, if we want to know how we got to this point in time and to seek better informed guidance in the face of an uncertain and changing climate future.

Climate-related ideas … that demand better understanding

1. Climate-proofing

2. Food security

3. Ground zero

4. Deniers

5. Extremes

6. The verb “to be”

7. Ecosystems goods & services

8. Drivers (of change)

9. Mitigation (of greenhouse gas emissions)

10. Adaptation (to climate change)

11. Geo-engineering

12. Purposely changing the atmosphere’s thermostat

My view on Climate-related ideas … that demand better understanding

1. Climate-proofing --- misleading

2. Food security --- misnomer

3. Ground zero --- misfocused

4. Deniers --- misapplied

5. Extremes --- misdirected

6. The verb “is” --- misused

7. Ecosystems goods & services --- misconception

8. Drivers (of change) --- misdirecting

9. Mitigation (of greenhouse gas emissions) --- misarticulated

10. Adaptation (to climate change) --- misunderstood

11. Geo-engineering --- misadventure

12. Purposely changing the atmosphere’s thermostat --- misguided

Many Plan B’s but there is no Planet B !!