Post on 06-Oct-2020
DistributedGeneration:TrendsandSolutionsinUS
InternationalForumonEnergyTransitionsSuzhou,China
October29-312016
劳伦斯引入大团队科学研究劳伦斯伯克利国家实验室:能源部第一个国家实验室
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LuisW. Alvarez MelvinCalvin OwenChamberlain
DonaldA.Glaser
ErnestOrlandoLawrence
GlennT.Seaborg
EmilioG.SegrèYuanT.LeeGeorgeF.Smoot
StevenChu
SaulPerlmutter
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EdwinM.McMillan
IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)
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Presentation Outline
• DistributedGeneration:trendsandpoliciesinUS• DistrictEnergySystemOptimizationTools• DistributedEnergySystem/Microgrid pilots
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Trends in Distributed Generation in US
• DistributedGeneration• avarietyoftechnologiesthatgenerateelectricityatornear
whereitwillbeused,suchassolarpanelsandcombinedheatandpower.
• Distributedgenerationmayserveasinglestructure,suchasabuilding,orbepartofamicrogrid,suchasataindustrialpark,amilitarybase,oralargecollegecampus.
• Solar,gasturbine/engines,fuelcells,biomass
• TheMajorsourcesofDistributedGenerationincludes• Rooftopsolar,fastestgrowing• CHP,thelargestsource,about8%ofpowercapacity
• IncreasinginterestsinDistrictEnergySystemswithmicrogrids toimproveresilience
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Growingat60%,expectedtoreach20GWby2020
• Diversified market: utility, residential, commercial
• 1% U.S. electricity supply in total (DG PV = 0.3% nationwide, 6% HI, nearing 2% CA/NJ)
• 2016 expectation: ~16 GW new installation
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MultipleDeploymentDrivers
• Fallingcostsandimprovingperformance• Policyinterventionatnationalandstatelevels• Businessandfinancinginnovations
• thirdpartyownership• privateloans,PACE,etc.• shared/communitysolar
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$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Installation Year
ResidentialNon-Residential ≤500 kWNon-Residential >500 kW
Median Installed Price
2015
$/W
DC
Module price index
Prices for Distributed Solar Continue to Decline
Average annual decline since 2009: 11% per year (res.) to 16% (large non-res). From 2014-15: 5% per year (res.) to 9% (large non-res.)
Median installed price series is based on data from 451,693 systems, assembled by Berkeley Lab (trackingthesun.lbl.gov). Module price index is from SPV Market Research.
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Even Lower-Cost Systems Are Commonplace:potential for further price declines
$1.7 $2.9 $4.0 $1.8 $2.8$1.2 $2.1 $3.5 $1.6 $2.10
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20
30
40
$0
$2
$4
$6
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Germany Japan USA Australia France
Residential Installed Price (left-axis)Small Non-Res. Installed Price (left-axis)Cumulative Distributed PV Capacity (right-axis)
GW
DC
2015
$/W
DC
Installed Prices for 2015, Excluding Sales Tax or VAT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 100%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%
Freq
uenc
y
Residential
n=106,983
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Non-Res. ≤500 kWDC
Installed Price (2015$/WDC)
n=2,880
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Median
20th/80thPercentiles
Non-Res. >500 kWDC
n=243
Installed Price Distributions for U.S. Systems in
2015
Comparison of 2015 PV System
Prices across Countries
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Installed Price Declines Have Been Partially Offset by Falling State and Utility Incentives
ReductionsinrebatesandPBIssincetheirpeakequateto60%to120%ofthecorrespondingdropininstalledprices
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2015
$/W
DC
Installation Year
CA (ERP, SGIP, CSI) NJ (CORE, REIP)NY (NYSERDA) AZ (APS, SRP, TEP)MA (MassCEC) All Other Programs
Residential and Non-Residential PVMedian Pre-Tax Rebate or PBI (Present Value)
Notes: The figure depicts the pre-tax value of rebates and PBI payments (calculated on a present-value basis) provided through state/utility PV incentive programs, among only those systems that received such incentives. Although not shown in the figure, a growing portion of the sample received no direct cash incentive.
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FederalPolicyDrivers:
• Acceleratedtaxdepreciation• 5-yearterm
• CleanPowerPlan• Potentialimpactsafter2020• Fateandimpacthighlyuncertain
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Source: http://news.energysage.com/congress-extends-the-solar-tax-credit/
• 30% investment tax credit (ITC)• Extended to 2021 (for projects
started)• Drops to 10% for commercial
entities, phased out for residential customers
EPACarbonReductioninPowerSector• Twocomponents:newfossilplants,existingfossilplants• Newplants:newcoaleffectivelyprecludedabsentCCS• Existingplants=CleanPowerPlan(CPP),32%reductionby2030
relativeto2005,complianceperiodbeginsin2022• Manycomplianceoptions:rate- vs.mass-based,newcomplement,
EGUvs.statemeasures,regionalcollaboration,set-asides,earlyincentiveprogramà decisionstobemadeatstatelevel
• HowwillREcontribute?Whoknows???• Dependsondecisions,includingby
states&obligatedentities• EPAestimate:growthfrom13%
todayto20%by2030• Supportsgrowthconsistentwithrecent
past:deployment“floor”
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StatePolicyDrivers• Renewables Portfolio Standards
• 22 States + DC have an RPS with solar or DG provisions
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• Net Metering and Favorable Rates• 41 states and the District of Columbia require
certain utilities to offer net metering to distributed solar customers as of the beginning of 2016.
• State Tax and Financial Incentives• State tax credits• State sales/property tax incentives• Up-front cash rebates• Performance based incentives
• 3rd Party Solar PV Power Purchase Agreement (PPA)• At Least 26 States + DC and Puerto Rico authorize
or allow 3rd Party Power Purchase Agreements for Solar PV
3rd Party Solar PV Power Purchase Agreement (PPA)www.dsireusa.org / July 2016
At Least 26 States+ Washington DC and Puerto Rico Authorize or Allow 3rd Party Power Purchase Agreements for Solar PV
Apparently disallowed by state or otherwise restricted by legal barriers
Status unclear or unknown
U.S. Territories
DC
VA: Limited within a certain utility's service territory
CO: With system size limitations
TX: With system size limitations
NV: With system size limitations
AZ: Limited to certain sectors
Authorized by state or otherwise currently in use, at least in certain jurisdictions
Guam USVIPR NMI
LA, MS, SC: Solar leases explicitly allowed
Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) with Solar or Distributed Generation Provisions
Renewable Portfolio Standard with solar/distributed generation (DG) provision
Renewable Portfolio Goal with solar/DG provision
www.dsireusa.org / August 2016WA: 2 MW DG (M)
OR: 20 MW PV x 20252 for PV (M)
NV: 1.5% (E) x 2025 2.4 for PV (M) UT: 2.4 (M)
for (E)
AZ: 4.5% DG x 2025 NM: 4% (E) x
20200.6% DG x 2020
CO: 3.0% DG x 20201.5% CST x 2020
MN: 1.5% (E) x 20200.15% PV DG x 2020
MI: 3.2 (M) for (E)
MO: 0.3% (E) x 2021
IL: 1.5% PV x 20260.25% DG x 2026
OH: 0.5% (E) x 2027
SC: 0.25% DG x 2021
Solar water heating counts toward solar/DG provision
22 States + DC have an RPS with solar or DG provisions
DCNC: 0.2% (E) x 2018
NH: 0.3% (E) x 2014
MA: 400 MW PV x 2020NY: 0.58% customer - sited x 2015PA: 0.5% PV x 2021NJ: 4.1% (E) x 2028
DE: 3.5% PV x 20263.0 for PV (M)
MD: 2% (E) x 2020
DC: 2.5% (E) x 2023
Delaware allows certain fuel cell systems to qualify for the PV carve-out
(E): Solar ElectricPV: Solar PhotovoltaicDG: Distributed Generation(M): Multipliers(CST): Customer - Sited
VT: 1% DG X 2017 + 3/5ths of 1%/year until 10% X 2032
More information on solar programs and policies: http://programs.dsireusa.org/system/program/maps
NetMeteringSupportsDistributedPV:DesignsVary
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Net Metering
State-developed mandatory rules for certain utilities (41 states + DC+ 3 territories)
No statewide mandatory rules, but some utilities allow net metering (2 states)
www.dsireusa.org / July 2016
KEYU.S. Territories:
41 States + DC,AS, USVI, & PR have mandatory net metering rules
DC
Statewide distributed generation compensation rules other than net metering (4 states + 1 territory)GU
AS PR
VI
UnderNetMetering,RateDesignIsKey
Californiahasbeenhometoamongthemostattractiveretailrates• Ratetiersthatincreasewithusage• Primarilyvolumetricrates,withlowfixedcharges
Ratedesignsthatarelessattractiveforsolargenerallyfeature…• Lowoverallretailratelevels• Higherfixedcustomerorstandbycharges• Demandchargestiedtopeakcustomerload
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Trends in Distributed Generation: CHPUSCHP Capacity:85%Industrial
Source: ACEEE, 2016. http://aceee.org/blog/2016/02/brief-history-chp-development-united
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Trends in Distributed Generation: CHP
• CHP• 83GW,~8%ofpowercapacity&12%generation• Additional40GWtargetby2030• InCA,theinstalledcapacityin2012was8,815
megawatts(MW),another6,500MWby2030• However,thefutureislessclearforCHPtomeet
thelong-termGHGtargetof80%reduction.
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Federal and State Policy Support: CHP
• Federal• Taxcredit:10%ofexpendituresofCHP(EE>60%)• DOE7CHPTechnicalAssistancePartnership
• CAincentives• SGIP
• conventionalCHPtechnologies$0.50/wattand• fuelcells$2.25/wattforbothelectriconlyandCHP
applications.• Thebiogasincentive$2/watt
• PACE:non-residentialbuildings
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伯克利区域能源优化模型简介BerkeleyLab’sDistrictEnergyOptimization
Tool
MOD-DEM:Microgrid OptimalDispatchwithDemand-sideEnergyManagement
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Demandside• Lowerpeakenergyusage• Bringhighercapacityfactorand
securityofdistributiongrids
Model concept 建模概念
Supplyside• Microgridtointegratedistributed
generationandstorage• Combinedheatandpower
Challenge:Coordinateboththedemandandsupplysidesinarenewable-penetrated,storageaugmented,DR-enabledmicrogrid
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Motivation动机
• DESasasmartprosumer:分布式能源作为一个智能能源参与者o Optimizeoperationbyeffectivecoordinationoftechnologies
(storages,CHP,etc.)inaccordwithrenewablegenerationanddemandresponsesignals
o Investigatedispatchstrategiesunderuncertainty
• DESasasmartpartnerwiththegrid:分布式能源是大电网的一个智能伙伴o Offerancillaryserviceforoverallefficiencyandgridstabilityo Encouragemoredemandsideparticipationinthemarketand
appropriatelyvaluingdemandresponse
• Retailmarketoptimization服务于能源零售市场
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CaseStudy:Excessiverenewablesgeneration案例:智能微网帮助消纳电网过剩的可再生能源
• Scenario:o Excessiverenewables
(wind/solar)→triggerspricedrop→DRtopreferelectricity
o DES:heating+electricloads(elastic/inelastic) Excessrenewables
→pricedrop
Day1 Day2 Day3
Day1 Day2 Day3
Day1 Day2 Day3
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CaseStudy:Excessiverenewablesgeneration
• Heatingbalance:electric+naturalgasboilero NGisusedasadefaultinmostof
thetimeo Shiftingtoelectricboilertouse
moreelectricityo Excessheatgenerationisstoredfor
lateruse HeattankischargedduringDR
ElectricboilerswitchedonduringDRtoconvertexcesselectricitytoheat
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分布式能源微网案例分析Distributedenergymicorgrid casestudy
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加州大学,欧文分校微电网/U.C.IrvineMicrogrid
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加州大学欧文分校微电网成本效益结果/U.C.IrvineMicrogridCost-BenefitResults
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• Costbenefitanalysisofmicrogrid technologiesusingmicrogridtools
• 运用微网计算工具对分布式微网各种技术做成本效益后评估
谢谢您
Thankyou!Visitus:China.lbl.gov
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