© 27 Mar 2002, Arifin Abdul Latif, Asst. Director, IT Section, Planning Div., Dept of Agric., Malaysia Email: ppstm@smtp.moa.my | arifinlatif@lycosasia.com Website: http://agrolink.moa.my/doa Personal Website: http://members.tripodasia.com.sg/arifinlatif/ArifinLatif_Consulting.htm

KLCI Megatrend~ Past, Present

& BeyondArifin Abdul Latif

ArifinLatif Consulting

KLCI’s Megatrend (22-year cycle)

KLCI, the Economy & the Ringgit...

KLCI leads the Economy…

Mkt Cap/GDP at 3.8X Level…?

Effect of Capital Flight….

KLCI vs USD: Inverse Trend

RM/USD:Pre-Capital Controls

A Big C.I.T. in Nov Proven Right…..

KLCI as the Barometer forEconomic Health & Sickness…

Three Buddhas…. Looking for the Confirmation for Market Reversal

How low can KLCI slide to….650 by year-end, or lower to 550?

650; 550 or at worst to 550?

Too High Too Soon…. Dangerous!!

On Necks, Black (White) Suits& Black Shoes….

Three Buddhas…. Market Reversals in Sept 1998 and Feb 2000

Into the Bermuda Triangle….

Earliest Market Reversal?

The Bermuda Triangle Entrapment….

June-Aug-Oct 2001….Most Likely to be the Next C.I.T.?

KLCI downtrend to 423% level before Market Reversal?

11 Session Lows Reached…and Three Buddhas Reappearing..?

INTER-MARKETTECHNICALANALYSIS

Trends in Major World Bourses:DJIA-30 index

Trends in Major World Bourses:FTSE index

Trends in Major World Bourses:Nikkei index

Trends in Major World Bourses:Hang Seng index

Trends in Emerging MarketsKLComposite index

Trends in Emerging MarketsStraits Times index

ConcludingRemarks

FORECAST & REALITY: KLCI’s MARKET MegaTREND

RAMALAN EKONOMI (Economic Forecasting) Kitaran bisnes: hubungkait “lead-lag”

RAMALAN ASAS (Fundamental Forecasting) Analisis fundamental: “intrinsic value” (PER)

RAMALAN TEKNIKAL (Technical Analysis)

Faktor dorongan kpd sentimen pasaran

Meramal menggunakan carta (charting)