Klci market trend lectures @intan 2002
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© 27 Mar 2002, Arifin Abdul Latif, Asst. Director, IT Section, Planning Div., Dept of Agric., Malaysia Email: [email protected] | [email protected] Website: http://agrolink.moa.my/doa Personal Website: KLCI Megatrend ~ Past, Present & Beyond Arifin Abdul Latif ArifinLatif Consulting
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Transcript of Klci market trend lectures @intan 2002
© 27 Mar 2002, Arifin Abdul Latif, Asst. Director, IT Section, Planning Div., Dept of Agric., Malaysia Email: [email protected] | [email protected] Website: http://agrolink.moa.my/doa Personal Website: http://members.tripodasia.com.sg/arifinlatif/ArifinLatif_Consulting.htm
KLCI Megatrend~ Past, Present
& BeyondArifin Abdul Latif
ArifinLatif Consulting
KLCI’s Megatrend (22-year cycle)
KLCI, the Economy & the Ringgit...
KLCI leads the Economy…
Mkt Cap/GDP at 3.8X Level…?
Effect of Capital Flight….
KLCI vs USD: Inverse Trend
RM/USD:Pre-Capital Controls
A Big C.I.T. in Nov Proven Right…..
KLCI as the Barometer forEconomic Health & Sickness…
Three Buddhas…. Looking for the Confirmation for Market Reversal
How low can KLCI slide to….650 by year-end, or lower to 550?
650; 550 or at worst to 550?
Too High Too Soon…. Dangerous!!
On Necks, Black (White) Suits& Black Shoes….
Three Buddhas…. Market Reversals in Sept 1998 and Feb 2000
Into the Bermuda Triangle….
Earliest Market Reversal?
The Bermuda Triangle Entrapment….
June-Aug-Oct 2001….Most Likely to be the Next C.I.T.?
KLCI downtrend to 423% level before Market Reversal?
11 Session Lows Reached…and Three Buddhas Reappearing..?
INTER-MARKETTECHNICALANALYSIS
Trends in Major World Bourses:DJIA-30 index
Trends in Major World Bourses:FTSE index
Trends in Major World Bourses:Nikkei index
Trends in Major World Bourses:Hang Seng index
Trends in Emerging MarketsKLComposite index
Trends in Emerging MarketsStraits Times index
ConcludingRemarks
FORECAST & REALITY: KLCI’s MARKET MegaTREND
RAMALAN EKONOMI (Economic Forecasting) Kitaran bisnes: hubungkait “lead-lag”
RAMALAN ASAS (Fundamental Forecasting) Analisis fundamental: “intrinsic value” (PER)
RAMALAN TEKNIKAL (Technical Analysis)
Faktor dorongan kpd sentimen pasaran
Meramal menggunakan carta (charting)
