Post on 18-Apr-2018
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ICT IMPACT ONDEVELOPING COUNTRIES
BILL LUTHERFEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION
WASHINGTON, D.C.2005
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TOPICS FOR DISCUSSION• ICT PROBLEMS, SOLUTIONS, FACTORS AND
POLICIES – WHY?• ECONOMICAL ICT TECHNOLOGY• INTERNET AND MOBILE TAKE UP• INTERNET – WHAT IS IT AND WHAT DOES IT
MEAN?• INTERNET CONCERNS• VOICE OVER INTERNET PROTOCOL (VoIP)• VoIP FOR DISABILITIES• VoIP AND THE PUBLIC SWITCHED
TELECOMMUNICATIONS NETWORK (PSTN)• MOBILES AND THE PSTN• WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION SIGNIFICANCE• VSAT PRICING
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ICT PROBLEM AND SOLUTIONSPROBLEM:
TECHNOLOGY HAS WIDENED THE
DIGITAL DIVIDE BETWEEN
DEVELOPED AND DEVELOPING
COUNTRIES.
SOLUTION: *
1. IMPROVE EDUCATIONAL SYSTEMS, AND
2. EXPAND TELECOMMUNICATIONNETWORKS
*ILO at the World Economic Forum, Davos, 2001
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UNIVERSAL SERVICE ANDUNIVERSAL ACCESS POLICIES• IT IS UNDERSTOOD THAT MARKET
SOLUTIONS WILL NOT ENSURETHE EXPANSION OF NETWORKS TOECONOMICALLY LESS VIABLE(RURAL) AREAS OR TO DISABLEDINDIVIDUALS
• UNIVERSAL SERVICE ORUNIVERSAL ACCESS OBLIGATIONS,AND FUNDING ARE A NATIONALPOLICY ISSUE
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ICT POLICY OBJECTIVES• FOSTER COMPETITIVE AND INNOVATIVE
INTERNET CONNECTION, AND MULTIMEDIAINDUSTRIES
• MINIMIZE REGULATION AND ENACT FLEXIBLEREGULATORY POLICIES
• PROMOTE MARKET ACCESS AND ADOPTIONOF OPEN, NON-DISCRIMINATORY,TRANSPARENT POLICIES
WHY?
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ICT POLICY ROUGHLYCORRELATES TO ECONOMY*
• 19% OF QATAR’S POPULATION USES THE INTERNET; PERCAPITA INCOME - - $20,700
• 17% OF CAYMAN ISLANDS’ POPULATION USES INTERNET; PERCAPITA INCOME - - $35,000
• 1% OF SYRIA’S POPULATION USES THE INTERNET; PERCAPITA INCOME - - $1,160
• < 1% OF GHANA’S POPULATION USES THE INTERNET; PERCAPITA INCOME - - $270
CONCRETE PROPOSALS TO FUND DIGITAL DIVIDE
PROJECTS: AGENDA FOR THE FEBRUARY 17 – 25, 2005,
PREPARATORY MEETING - - THE WORLD SUMMIT OF
THE INFORMATION SOCIETY, GENEVA
• FEBRUARY 2005 REPORT TO EU COMMISSION
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LOW-COST COMPUTERS ANDMOBILE HANDSETS*
MIT MEDIA LABORATORY HAS DEVELOPED AN EXPERIMENTALLAPTOP USING LINUX, A 1 GBYTE SOLID-STATE MEMORY (NO
HARD DISC), LOW-COST BATTERIES WITH HAND-CRANKCHARGER, AND LOW-COST MINIATURE REAR PROJECTION
SCREEN (HALF THE COST OF A LAPTOP TODAY IS THE SCREEN).
COST ≈ $100
GSM ASSOCIATION HAS DEVELOPED ITS FIRST LOWCOSTHANDSET IN RESPONSE TO DEMAND FROM DEVELOPINGCOUNTRIES. STATED GOAL IS “TO HELP CONNECT THE
UNCONNECTED PEOPLE OF THE WORLD”. NINE EMERGINGMARKET OPERATORS (AIS, BHARTI, GLOBE, MAXIS, ORASCOM,
SINGTEL, SMART, TELENOR AND TURKCELL) AREPARTICIPATING IN THIS INITIATIVE.
COST < $40(SEEKING A UNIT THAT COSTS < $30)
*FEBRUARY 2005
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WORLDWIDE INTERNET AND MOBILEPENETRATION PER 100 POPULATION
MI L
LI O
NS
OF
US
ER
S
PE
RC
EN
T
SOURCE: ITU WORLD TELECOMMUNICATION INDICATORS DATABASE, 2004
ITU, DEC. 2004: ICT WORLDWIDE VALUE = $1.1 TRILLION
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INTERNET?
THE INTERNET HAS ENABLED THECREATION OF BUSINESSES
WITHOUT MUCH CAPITAL. IT HASENLARGED THE COMPETITION - -NOT ONLY THE SHOP DOWN THE
STREET BUT THE SHOP HALFWAYAROUND THE WORLD.
GEOGRAPHICAL BOUNDARIES AREDISAPPEARING.
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INTERNET USERS(JUNE 2004)
ASIA-PACIFIC 223 MILLIONNORTH AMERICA 175 MILLIONEUROPE 173 MILLIONOTHER 129 MILLION
GLOBALLY 700 MILLION (OUT OF 6.4 BILLION - - 11%)
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CONVERGENCE TO INTERNET
• TREND IS TOWARDS THECONSOLIDATION OF VOICE, VIDEO ANDDATA SERVICES IN THE INTERNET
• PROGRESS TOWARD THISCONSOLIDATION WILL BE VIADEVELOPMENTS SUCH AS UBIQUITOUSBANDWIDTH, INCREASED EASE OF USE,GREATER CONNECTIVITY ANDIMPROVED SECURITY
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INTERNET BANDWIDTHGROWTH
SOURCE: TELEGRAPHY RESEARCH, GLOBAL INTERNET GEOGRAPHY 2004
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
AFRICA ASIA EUROPE LATINAMERICA
U.S. &CANADA
WORLD
2000
2001
2002
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DOMAINS*
.ASIA .INFO
.AERO .INT
.ARPA .JOBS
.BIZ .MAIL
.COM - 45% .MIL
.COOP .MUSEUM
.COUNTRY CODES: (.de - 12% .NAME and .uk – 8%) .NET – 5%.EDU .ORG – 4%.EU .PRO.GOV .TEL.MOBI** .JOBS**
*BOTH JAPANESE AND CHINESE CHARACTERS ARE NOW INUSE
**PENDING (FROM MOBILE PHONES AND FOR HUMANRESOURCES)
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INTERNET CONCERNSFRAUD - AUTHENTICITY
CYBERSTALKING OR VOYERISMGAMBLING
MONEY LAUNDERINGDRUG TRAFFICKING
PORNOGRAPHYTAXESSPAM
QUALITYINTELLECTUAL PROPERTY RIGHTS
VIRUSESCULTURE
SECURITY (PRIVACY)WIRELESS NUMBER DIRECTORY
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WHAT IS VoIP / INTERNETVOICE?
VOICE OVER INTERNET PROTOCOL (VoIP) ALLOWS TELEPHONE
CALLS USING A COMPUTER NETWORK - - A DATA NETWORK, LIKE
THE INTERNET:
– VoIP CONVERTS THE VOICE SIGNAL FROM YOURTELEPHONE INTO A DIGITAL SIGNAL THAT TRAVELS OVERTHE INTERNET THEN CONVERTS IT BACK AT THE OTHEREND SO YOU CAN SPEAK TO ANYONE WITH A REGULARPHONE NUMBER.
– WHEN PLACING A VoIP CALL USING A PHONE WITH ANADAPTER, YOU'LL HEAR A DIAL TONE AND DIAL JUST ASYOU ALWAYS HAVE.
– VoIP ALSO ALLOWS YOU TO MAKE A CALL DIRECTLY FROMA COMPUTER USING A CONVENTIONAL TELEPHONE OR AMICROPHONE.
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VOICE OVER INTERNETPROTOCOL
VoIP IS NOT JUST ANOTHER WAY OF PROVIDING TRADITIONAL TELEPHONESERVICE. IT IS A NEW APPLICATION ON A NEW KIND OF NETWORK THAT WILLCREATE NEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR BUSINESSES AND CONSUMERS. VoIP WILL RAISESTANDARDS ISSUES THAT NEED SOLUTIONS SUCH AS:
• ARRANGEMENTS FOR FINANCE / PSTN CONNECTION
• SUPPORTING EMERGENCY RESPONSE NEEDS OF PUBLIC SAFETYAUTHORITIES, ESPECIALLY AS RELATED TO THE RESPONSE LOCATION
• VoIP TECHNOLOGIES HELPING ACCESSIBILITY AND USABILITY OFCOMMUNICATIONS NETWORKS BY PERSONS WITH DISABILITIES
• SECURITY AND LEGAL ISSUES NEED RESOLUTION IN RESPONSE TOAPPROPRIATE LEGAL REQUIREMENTS
• OTHER STANDARDS ISSUES RAISED BY VOIP
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IP FOR PERSONS WHO AREDEAF
IP BROADBAND (DSL OR CABLE MODEM) CAN SUPPORT VIDEOCALLING, AND BECAUSE A PC CAN BE USED FOR VIDEO, IN MANY CASESTHE ONLY COST TO THE CONSUMER IS A USB VIDEO CAMERA
IP VIDEO CALLING WILL LIKELY BECOME WIDELY USED IN THENEAR FUTURE, BOTH FOR BUSINESS AND HOME CALLERS
THIS WILL BENEFIT THE DEAF AND HARD-OF-HEARINGCOMMUNITIES, AS THEY WILL BE ABLE TO USE SIGN LANGUAGEAND LIP READING ON VIDEO CALLS, AND AFFORD THE INEXPENSIVEHARDWARE
GALLAUDET UNIVERSITY IS ALREADY EXPERIMENTING WITH VIDEOCALLING, AND EVEN HAS INSTALLED MANY "VIDEO TELEPHONEBOOTHS" ON ITS CAMPUS, FOR STUDENTS TO MAKE IP VIDEO CALLS TOEACH OTHER.
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VoIP FOR PERSONS WHO AREBLIND
TECHNOLOGY AND COST LIMITATIONS OF PTSN PHONES CREATEBARRIERS FOR ACCESS BY BLIND USERS (FOR EXAMPLE, A BLIND USERCANNOT SEE A DISPLAY WITH CALLER ID ON IT)
VoIP "PHONES" CAN ACTUALLY BE CREATED BY INSTALLING ASOFTWARE-BASED TELEPHONE ONTO A STANDARD PCWITH AUDIO CARD AND SPEAKERS, AND THEN CAN BE EASILY ANDCHEAPLY CUSTOMIZED FOR ACCESSIBILITY FEATURES
PCs (WINDOWS AND APPLE) ALREADY HAVE QUITE A BIT OFEXISTING "ACCESSIBILITY FEATURES" THAT THE VoIP SOFTPHONECAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF, SUCH AS TEXT-TO-SPEECH FOR AUDIBLECALLER ID AND MESSAGE WAITING INDICATION.
IT IS MUCH CHEAPER TO MAKE A BLIND-ACCESSIBLE TELEPHONEBASED ON A PC, THAN TO CREATE SPECIAL HARDWARE FOR ASTANDALONE PHONE, AND THIS MAKES BLIND-FRIENDLYTELEPHONES AFFORDABLE FOR MORE USERS.
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PSTN AND IP TELEPHONY
• PSTN IS BASED ON CIRCUIT-SWITCHEDTECHNOLOGY, EVOLVED AS A VOICENETWORK (HIGHLY REGULATED)
• INTERNET BASED ON PACKET-SWITCHEDTECHNOLOGY, EVOLVED AS A DATANETWORK (LARGELY UNREGULATED)
• INTERNET IS HEADED TO REPLACE THEPSTN BY A “NEXT GENERATIONNETWORK” (NGN) – ITU-T STUDY GROUP13
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VoIP AND PSTN RELATIVE COSTS
• IP TELEPHONY (VoIP) CAN BE OFFERED ATPRICES SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW THOSE FORPSTN TELEPHONY
• PSTN PRICING IS DISTANCE-SENSITIVEWHILE PRICING OF IP TELEPHONY ISLARGELY INDEPENDENT OF DISTANCE(LIKE SATELLITE COMMUNICATIONS)
• VoIP TODAY MEANS A TRADE-OFF BETWEENQUALITY AND COST
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VoIP vs SWITCHED CIRCUITNETWORK COST
TRADITIONALTELCO SWITCH
IP TELEPHONY
SOLUTION IINVESTMENT CAPACITY ADVANTAGES
CLASS 5 SWITCH
US $20 MILLION
20,000 LINES ? QUALITY ? RELIAB LE ? PROVEN
TECHNOLOGY
INTERNET POP
US $0.1 MILLION
400,000 MINUTES PER MONTH
? EFFICIENCY ? NEW
SERVICES POTENTIAL
? SCALABILITY
IP FULL OPERATION
US $3 TO 5 MILLION
35 MILLION MINUTES PER MONTH
IP TELEPHONY
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VoIP PERMITTEDANGOLA ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA ARGENTINA AUSTRALIA AUSTRIA BELGIUM BHUTAN CANADA CHINA CONGO COSTA RICA CYPRUS CZECH REPUBLIC DENMARK DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ESTONIA ETHIOPIA FINLAND FRANCE GAMBIA GERMANY
GREECE GUATEMALA GUYANA HONG KONG SAR HUNGARY ICELAND INDIA IRELAND ITALY JAPAN KENYA KOREA (REP) KYRGYZSTAN LUXEMBOURG MADAGASCAR MALAYSIA MALTA MEXICO MOLDOVA MONGOLIA NEPAL
NETHERLANDS NEW ZEALAND PERU PHILIPPINES POLAND PORTUGAL SINGAPORE SLOVAK REPUBLIC SPAIN SRI LANKA ST. LUCIA ST. VINCENT SWEDEN SWITZERLAND TONGA UGANDA UNITED KINGDOM UNITED STATES VIET NAM
61/189
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GLOBAL INTERNATIONAL TRAFFIC• INTERNATIONAL SWITCHED TRAFFIC INCREASED JUST
OVER SIX PERCENT IN 2002 TO 155.2 BILLION MINUTES; IN2003 TO 170 BILLION MINUTES (9.5% INCREASE)
• VoIP TRAFFIC SURGED 80 PERCENT IN 2002 TO 18.7 BILLIONMINUTES, ACCOUNTING FOR ALMOST 11 PERCENT OFINTERNATIONAL TRAFFIC; IN 2003 TO 22 BILLION MINUTES(17.6% INCREASE)
• VoIP APPEARS TO HAVE A NOTABLE IMPACT IN LATINAMERICA, WHERE SWITCHED TRAFFIC VOLUMESDECREASED IN 2002.
• VoIP TRAFFIC TO INDIA, PAKISTAN, AND BANGLADESHMORE THAN DOUBLED IN 2003 OVER 2002
• VoIP IS STILL PRIMARILY USED TO BYPASS HIGHSETTLEMENT RATES IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
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FIXED LINE TRAFFIC GROWTH2001 TO 2002
SOURCE: TELEGRAPHY RESEARCH 2003
NOTES: GLOBAL TRAFFIC WAS 155.2 BILLION MINUTES IN 2002. DATA DO NOTINCLUDE VoIP TRAFFIC.
6.2%
10.1%10.9%
3.8%
-0.8%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
LATIN AMERICA US & CANADA EUROPE AFRICA ASIA
GLOBAL AVERAGE
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MOBILE AND FIXED TELEPHONESUBSCRIBERS (WORLDWIDE) AS A
FUNCTION OF YEARS
Source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Database and ITU projections.
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WIRELESS MARKET
BLUETOOTH,UWB
802.11x,HIPERLAN
802.16x,LMDS/MMDS/
WLL
GSM/CDMA(3G)
GLOBAL
PAN
LAN
SATELLITEMAN
(FIXEDWIRELESS)
CELLULAR
NARROWBAND *
BROADBAND **
* <200 kb/s
PAN LAN MAN3G
CELLULAR SATELLITE
CORDLESS PHONES
PCs
PDAs
HOME GATEWAYS
WLANs:
HOTELS
RETAIL
CONFERENCES
BUSINESS
RESIDENTIAL TOWERS
BUSINESSES
MUNICIPALITIES
MULTIMEDIA (VOICE,VIDEO, DATA)
CELLULAR PHONES
GLOBAL CELLULARPHONES
RNSS
** ≥200 kb/s
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MOBILE GROWTH IN AFRICA (1995-2001)TOP 10 ECONOMIES, COMPOUND ANNUAL
GROWTH RATE (%)
121.8
122.7
122.8
129.4
133.4
138.6
145.6
151.0
169.0
209.7
Benin
Tanzania
Tunisia
Malawi
Morocco
Uganda
Kenya
Central African Rep.
Eygpt
Seychelles
Source: ITU Internet Reports 2002: Internet for a Mobile Generation.
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MOBILE SUBSCRIBERS IN AFRICA(MILLIONS)
0.7 1.2 2 3.5
7.7
15.7
24
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Source: ITU Internet Reports 2002: Internet for a Mobile Generation.
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MOBILE SUBSCRIBERS IN THE AMERICAS(MILLIONS)
40.354.1
71.995.8
133.9
181.5
222
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Source: ITU Internet Reports 2002: Internet for a Mobile Generation.
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WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION (WTO)AND TELECOMMUNICATION TRADE
LIBERALIZATION
• WTO MEMBERSHIP ALLOWS MEMBERS TO MAKEBINDING TREATY COMMITMENTS IN SPECIFICSECTORS, INCLUDING TELECOMMUNICATIONSSERVICES• GENERAL AGREEMENT ON TRADE IN SERVICES(GATS) AS OF OCTOBER 2003:
– 105 WTO MEMBERS HAVE MADE SPECIFIC GATSCOMMITMENTS IN SOME OR ALL ASPECTS OFTRADE IN TELECOMMUNICATIONS SERVICES– 98 IN BASIC TELECOMMUNICATIONS; ORIGINALCOMMITMENTS IN 1997 KNOWN AS BASIC TELECOMAGREEMENT
SOURCE: ITU TELECOMMUNICATIONS INDICATORS
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WTO AND TELECOMMUNICATIONSSERVICES
• WTO REFERENCE PAPER, ADOPTED BYMAJORITY OF MEMBERS MAKINGCOMMITMENTS IN BASICTELECOMMUNICATIONS, IMPOSESOBLIGATIONS REGARDING:– COMPETITIVE SAFEGUARDS– INTERCONNECTION– UNIVERSAL SERVICE– LICENSING– REGULATOR INDEPENDENCE– SCARCE RESOURCE ALLOCATION (E.G., NUMBERS,
SPECTRUM)
SOURCE: ITU TELECOMMUNICATIONS INDICATORS
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WHY GATS COMMITMENTS INTELECOMMUNICATIONSSERVICES ARE UNIQUE
• GATS COMMITMENTS IN TELECOMMUNICATIONS ENTAILCOMPLEX DOMESTIC SECTORAL REFORMS, INCLUDING THEINTRODUCTION OF COMPETITION AND THE ESTABLISHMENT OFAN EFFECTIVE REGULATOR AND REGULATIONS
• FUNCTIONS AS A MULTILATERAL INVESTMENT AGREEMENT,GRANTING RIGHTS TO THE SERVICE SUPPLIERS OF OTHER WTOMEMBERS, ALLOWING SOME FOREIGN OWNERSHIP AND CONTROLIN TELECOMMUNICATIONS
• WTO REFERENCE PAPER FUNCTIONS AS A MULTILATERALAGREEMENT REGARDING COMPETITION REGULATION, IMPOSINGA COMMON SET OF PRO-COMPETITIVE REGULATORY PRINCIPLES
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WHY GATS COMMITMENTS INTELECOMMUNICATIONS MATTER TO
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
• COMMITMENTS FUNCTION AS A WELL-KNOWN SIGNALINGDEVICE TO INVESTORS AND FOREIGN SERVICE SUPPLIERS
• COMMITMENTS CAN CREATE MOMENTUM FOR FURTHERDOMESTIC SECTOR REFORM, AND IT CAN ALSO ANCHORTHOSE REFORMS WITHIN AN INTERNATIONAL LEGALFRAMEWORK TO GUARD AGAINST POLICY REVERSAL
• DEPENDING ON SPECIFICS, COMMITMENTS COULDPROMOTE CONSUMER WELFARE AND TELEDENSITY,COMPETITION, AND PRIVATIZATION INITIATIVES
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EFFECT OF WTO ON GROWTH OFFIXED LINES IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
• COUNTRIES WITHWTO TELECOMSCOMMITMENTSPERFORM BETTER
– GREATER FIXEDLINEPENETRATION
– FASTER GROWTH• COUNTRIES
WITHOUT BASICTELECOMCOMMITMENTSHAVE GREATERFIXED LINEPENETRATION IFTHE INCUMBENT ISPRIVATIZED
FIX
ED
LIN
ES
PE
R 1
00
YEAR
WTO TELECOMSCOMMITMENT(ALL PRIVATIZED)
NO WTOTELECOMSCOMMITMENT -PRIVATIZED
NO WTOTELECOMSCOMMITMENT-NOT PRIVATIZED
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EFFECT OF WTO ON GROWTH OFMOBILE LINES IN SUB-SAHARAN
AFRICA• COUNTRIES WITH
BASIC TELECOMCOMMITMENTS HAVEGREATER MOBILESUBSCRIPTION
• COUNTRIES WITHOUTBASIC TELECOMCOMMITMENTS HAVEGREATERPENETRATION IFTHERE ISCOMPETITION INMOBILEC
EL
LU
LA
R S
UB
SC
RI B
ER
S P
ER
10 0
YEAR
WTO TELECOMSCOMMITMENT (ALLCOMPETITIVE)
NO WTOTELECOMSCOMMITMENT -COMPETITIVE
NO WTOTELECOMSCOMMITMENT-NON-COMPETITIVE
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EFFECT OF WTO ON REVENUES INSUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
• COUNTRIES WITHBASIC TELECOMCOMMITMENTSPERFORMEDBETTER– GREATER SECTOR
REVENUES THANCOUNTRIESWITHOUT BASICTELECOMCOMMITMENTS
– FASTER GROWTHRATES
SE
CT
OR
RE
VE
NU
ES
AS
% O
F G
DP
YEAR
WTO TELECOMSCOMMITMENT
NO WTOTELECOMSCOMMITMENT
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WTO CONCLUSIONS• GATS COMMITMENTS ACT AS A MECHANISM FOR
A COUNTRY TO ATTRACT MORE PRIVATE SECTORINVESTMENT
• GATS COMMITMENTS CORRELATE WITH BETTERPERFORMANCE IN THE TELECOMMUNICATIONSSECTOR – MORE RAPID GROWTH IN FIXED-LINEPENETRATION, MOBILE SUBSCRIBERSHIP, ANDTELECOMMUNICATIONS-SECTOR REVENUES
• AS EXISTING COMMITMENTS ARE FURTHERIMPLEMENTED AND NEW COMMITMENTS MADE,MORE REFINED METRICS WILL BE AVAILABLE TOFURTHER SUBSTANTIATE THESE FINDINGS
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VSAT TERMINAL PRICING TRENDS
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Year
U.S
. Do
llars
x 1
0-3
Ku-band
C-band
Source: COMSYS