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1992-2004 XJ Technologies Company Ltd. www.xjtek.com
Copyright 1992-2004 XJ Technologies. .
XJ Technologies Company Ltd AnyLogic@xjtek.com http://www.xjtek.com/products/anylogic
1992-2004 XJ Technologies http://www.xjtek.com
ii
.......................................................................................................... 1
1. ..........................................2
1.1 .............................................................................2
1.2 ..........................................................................................................3
1.3 ....................................................................................5
1.4 ....................................................................................................7
1.5 .......................................8
1.6 ..............................................................................................9
1.7 .............................12
1.8 ...................................13
1.9 .............................................................................15
1.10 - ........15
1.11 ........................................................................17
1.12 .........................................................................................................19
1.13 ..........................................................20
1.14 .................................21
1.14.1 ................................................................................................................21
1.14.2 ........................................................23
1.14.3 .........................................24
1.15 ..........................................25
1.15.1 .............................................................................26
1.15.2 ..........................................................27
1.15.3 ................................................................................33
2. ........ 37
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2.1 ...............................................37
2.1.1 ..................................................37
2.1.2 .....................................................................................................40
2.2 .............................................42
2.2.1 ......................................................................43
2.2.2 .................45
2.3 ................48
2.3.1 ...............................................................................48
2.3.2 .................................................................51
2.4 ..................................................54
2.4.1 ..........................................................................................54
2.4.2 ...................................................................................56
2.4.3 ......................................................................................................58
3. .................................................................................................. 61
1992-2004 XJ Technologies http://www.xjtek.com
iv
AnyLogic V . - , , , , , . AnyLogic , .
AnyLogic. AnyLogic. , . . , AnyLogic.
- , . ; , .
1992-2004 XJ Technologies http://www.xjtek.com
1
1.
. . , , , . . , . - .
1.1
.
1. . .
2. , .
3. . Product Life Cycle .
4. OK.
. AnyLogic, , .
1992-2004 XJ Technologies http://www.xjtek.com
2
, .
1.2
, , . , , . , , , .
( ) , ; . , . , .
1992-2004 XJ Technologies http://www.xjtek.com
3
; .
, . , .
- . , , . - .
AnyLogic . , . ain .
1992-2004 XJ Technologies http://www.xjtek.com
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1.3
, . AnyLogic .
1. .
2. , . , .
3. , . . , .
4. . , Potential_Customers .
1992-2004 XJ Technologies http://www.xjtek.com
5
5. . , .
1. . Customers.
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. . .
1.4
, . AnyLogic . .
Adoption_Rate
1. .
2. , .
3. . , Adoption_Rate .
4. .
.
1992-2004 XJ Technologies http://www.xjtek.com
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1.5
, . , . , , :
+ - -
, , , , , , .
1. , Potential_Customers.
2. , : -Adoption_Rate. , . d(Potential_Customers)/dt, ,
, Ctrl+space. , . , , , . , .
1992-2004 XJ Technologies http://www.xjtek.com
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1. . Adoption_Rate.
1.6
. AnyLogic .
,
1. , ain.
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2. , . , .
3. . Total_Population.
4. . 100000 . .
5. . , , .
.
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, , . .
,
1. Advertising_Effectiveness.
2. 0.011.
, , . .
Contact_Rate
1. . Contact_Rate.
2. , 100 . 100.
1992-2004 XJ Technologies http://www.xjtek.com
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, , .
Adoption_Fraction
1. Adoption_Fraction.
2. 0.015.
1.7
.
1. , Customers.
2. . , 0 .
1. , Potential_Customers.
1992-2004 XJ Technologies http://www.xjtek.com
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2. Total_Population ( ).
.
1.8
, - , .
Adoption_From_Advertising
1. .
2. , .
3. , Adoption_From_Advertising.
4. .
5. : Advertising_Effectiveness*Potential_Customers
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Adoption_From_Word_Of_Mouth
1. Adoption_From_Word_Of_Mouth Contact_Rate*Adoption_Fraction*Potential_Customers*Customers/ Total_Population
1992-2004 XJ Technologies http://www.xjtek.com
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1.9
. .
1. , Adoption_Rate.
2. , : Adoption_From_Advertising+Adoption_From_Word_Of_Mouth.
.
1.10 -
- , . , - . , A B, , A B.
1992-2004 XJ Technologies http://www.xjtek.com
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-
1. . , - .
, : .
, . , .
, . , , .
.
1. , ain ain.
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2. . .
1.11
. , . , .
. , Simulation, . , .
( , , ), , ,
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, , .
, . , , , . 8 .
8
1. , Simulation.
2. , . 8. , 8 .
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, . , Automatic, AnyLogic .
RK4
1. , RK4 . .
1.12
. - , , , .
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, .
, , . , , . AnyLogic. , AnyLogic . , , , , ..
1.13
AnyLogic. .
1. .
2. . . .
,
1992-2004 XJ Technologies http://www.xjtek.com
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, .
: Examples \ System Dynamics Tutorial Models \ Product Life Cycle 1 - Creating the model.alp.
1.14
, .
1.14.1
Customers Potential_Customers
1. , .
2. . .
3. , . . .
4. Customers , root.Customers , , .
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5. root.Potential_Customers.
6. OK.
, . ,
Potential_Customers Customers . S- .
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1.14.2
, , .
Adoption_Rate
1. , . Adoption_Rate .
, . .
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1.14.3
, . , .
1. , Adoption_From_Advertising Adoption_From_Word_Of_Mouth.
, . , , , . ; .
, . , .
1992-2004 XJ Technologies http://www.xjtek.com
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1. . . . 1 OK. .
2. , . ,
. , (0.46, 11000).
: Examples \ System Dynamics Tutorial Models \ Product Life Cycle 2 - Charts.alp.
1.15
,
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. .
1.15.1
.
1. . .
1. , (0,0). , . , (600,350) ( ). .
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1. .
2. , (25,20).
3. , . , , Product Life Cycle Model.
4. . , Arial 12.
1.15.2
.
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(, , . .) (-, ). .
1. .
2. (230,100) , , (590,340).
. , .
Potential_Customers
1. .
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2. , (270,120).
3. (60,40).
4. Potential_Customers .
5. . Total_Population .
6. .
7. .
Customers
1. .
2. . . 220 .
3. , , Customers , .
, .
1. .
2. , .
3. , .
4. , : 2.
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5. , .
. . .
1. .
2. , .
3. , . , Adoption_Rate .
4. .
5. : 40000.
1. , Potential Customers, .
2. Customers .
3. Adoption Rate .
-, Adoption_From_Advertising Adoption_From_Word_Of_Mouth.
Adoption_From_Advertising
1. - .
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2. (310, 240), .
3. - Adoption_From_Advertising .
4. 8 ( 8 ).
5. 1500.
Adoption_From_Word_Of_Mouth
1. . (460,240).
2. Adoption_From_Word_Of_Mouth.
3. 8.
4. 400000.
.
, -
1. , Potential Customers Adoption from Advertising. , .
2. , Adoption from Advertising Adoption Rate.
3. , Adoption from Word of Mouth Adoption Rate.
4. , Customers Adoption from Word of Mouth.
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. , . .
1. , .
2. , .
3. , , . , 2.
. .
, , .
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1. . , .
.
: Examples \ System Dynamics Tutorial Models \ Product Life Cycle 3 - Animated stock and flow diagram.alp.
1.15.3
. , .
1992-2004 XJ Technologies http://www.xjtek.com
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1. . : Total Population: .
2. , Total_Population. Total_Population , .
1. .
2. .
3. (180,20).
4. , Total_Population, .
5. 100 000.
1992-2004 XJ Technologies http://www.xjtek.com
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6. 10 000 000.
1. 100 000.
2. 10 000 000.
1. ( , Shift).
2. Contact_Rate. 30 300.
3. , Contact Rate: Contact_Rate.
4. , 30 300.
1. Advertising_Effectiveness. 0 0.05.
2. , Advertising Effectiveness: Advertising_Effectiveness.
3. , 0 0.05.
, .
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1. , .
2. .
3. , .
: Examples \ System Dynamics Tutorial Models \ Product Life Cycle 4 - Controls.alp.
, AnyLogic. .
1992-2004 XJ Technologies http://www.xjtek.com
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2.
, , AnyLogic, . , , .
2.1
, , . , , , , , .
2.1.1
, .
Average_Product_Life
1. . 2.
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, , , . , , .
1. .
2. Discard_Rate.
3. : delay(Adoption_Rate, Average_Product_Life, 0)
delay() ; :
delay(, , )
Adoption_Rate Average_Product_Life. , .
1. Customers. , : Adoption_Rate Discard_Rate.
1992-2004 XJ Technologies http://www.xjtek.com
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1. Potential_Customers. , : Adoption_Rate + Discard_Rate.
. , . .
, Adoption_Rate Discard_Rate
1. Discard_Rate , Adoption_Rate.
, . , , , 2 .
.
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, , . , , - , , . , - .
2.1.2
, , . :
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.
1. 330 .
2. .
3. , .
4. , 70 , 220 .
5. .
6. : 2.
7. , : .
1992-2004 XJ Technologies http://www.xjtek.com
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.
1. , , . Discard_Rate , .
1. Discard Rate .
1. , Average_Product_Life 0.5 10.
2. , Average Product Life: Average_Product_Life.
3. , : 0.5 10.
. .
: Examples \ System Dynamics Tutorial Models \ Product Life Cycle 5 - Replacement purchases.alp.
2.2
, , . ,
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. , , . .
2.2.1
, , . . , . . , .
1. . :
demand.
2. , . . . , :
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3. . /. .
4. , . .
5. . .
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2.2.2
, , . Adoption_Fraction , .
1. . adoptFraction.
2. , real. , .
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3. , . , time. real.
4. . , : demand((time-floor(time))*12+1)/200.0
demand. . , , , .
floor() AnyLogic. , sin, cos, exp, . . , , , .
( Func). AnyLogic, .
1992-2004 XJ Technologies http://www.xjtek.com
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, , , .
Adoption_Fraction
1. , ain.
2. , Adoption_Fraction ,
.
Adoption_Fraction
1. : adoptFraction(t). . , t. t .
25 . , , .
1992-2004 XJ Technologies http://www.xjtek.com
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: Examples \ System Dynamics Tutorial Models \ Product Life Cycle 6 - Demand cycle.alp.
2.3
. , . , . , .
2.3.1
,
1. Monthly_Expenditures.
2. : 1100.
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Advertising_Effectiveness
1. Advertising_Effectiveness.
2. Advertising_Effectiveness : Monthly_Expenditures/10000.0. , .
. , . , .
1. Total_Expenditures.
2. , . : 0.0.
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Total_Expenditures
1. .
2. , .
3. , monthlyTimer.
4. , . , . , 1.0/12.0. 1.0/12.0 . .
5. , : Total_Expenditures+=Monthly_Expenditures; . , Total_Expenditures.
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2.3.2
, - , , 3 . , , , .
,
1. Switch_Time.
2. : 3.0.
( ).
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1. , , . . . :
2. . , . F2 with advertising.
3. . , . , , .
4. . without advertising. , . Monthly_Expenditures=0.0; .
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5. with advertising without advertising. , , . , Switch_Time. Switch_Time .
, with advertising, Monthly_Expenditures. Switch_Time, .
, .
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: Examples \ System Dynamics Tutorial Models \ Product Life Cycle 7 - Promotion strategy.alp.
2.4
: . . , , .
2.4.1
, , 80 .
Expected_Saturation
1. : Total_Population*0.8.
, , .
Saturation_Time
1. : 1.5.
1992-2004 XJ Technologies http://www.xjtek.com
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.
1. statechart , . , , :
2. , .
3. , .
4. . , Saturation_Time. Saturation_Time . , : Customers
. , , , , . , : Total_Expenditures=50000;. Total_Expenditures , , .
2.4.2
AnyLogic.
1. . .
2. . , .
3. . 1.6.
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4. 0.00001. : 1500.
5. , . , Total_Expenditures , .
Monthly_Expenditures Switch_Time.
1. Switch_Time. , Switch_Time . 1.5 1.0.
2. Monthly_Expenditures. .
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, , Total_Expenditures, .
2.4.3
. . AnyLogic 1500 Monthly_Expenditures Switch_Time. .
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, , 4668. : Switch_Time = 0.2488; Monthly_Expenditures = 1555.96.
Switch_Time Monthly_Expenditures. Simulation , .
1. , . , . Simulation OK.
Simulation , , Saturation_Time .
, .
1992-2004 XJ Technologies http://www.xjtek.com
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: Examples \ System Dynamics Tutorial Models \ Product Life Cycle 8 - Optimizing entry strategy.alp.
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3.
AnyLogic. , - , . AnyLogic - , , . , AnyLogic, , .
, Examples\System and Business Dynamics. - AnyLogic.
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-