Post on 29-Mar-2016
description
001
2013/02 International Real Estate Journal
Shopping Center Development in China
China's Crazy Real Estate Market
+ +
ISSN2158
-9372
9772158
937002 , ,
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:www.greeonline.com ( P18-19)
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Andy Diep / Manager Chinakingandy@yahoo.com
Margaret Tsay, Broker, MLO homesbymargaret@gmail.com
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Arcadia $2,680,000
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7,577 59 4
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4,820 45 3 14,636
Palos Verdes Estates $4,950,000 4,123 46
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$2,899,000
8,052 69 4 57,499
$5,400,000
10,132 78 4 40,142
Walnut $2,280,000
4,903 65 4 28,412
009
Contents
- ...................................010..........................012 - ..........................................014
........................................................024...............................................................026
2013 ..................................................030...............................................................032..................................034
........................................................038...............................................................040
........................................................044...........046
................................................052..................................054
Shopping.Center.Development.in.China....................................... 056China's.Crazy.Real.Estate.Market.................................................... 060
.........................................................................018
009
Organizer AmericanChineseTrading&Investment
PromotionAssociation(ACTIPA)
Publisher ChineseBizNews,ChineseRealEstate
News,USA
EditorinChief BarrySu
ExecutiveEditor XiaoqunWang
DeputyEditor Lieminwangn
PlanningDirector PufangShen
MarketingDirector JuanYanezCarrera
ArtDirector MayLiao
SaleDirector AllisonHsieh
SalesManager JohnZhao,YanWen
15713 91744 15713ValleyBlvd., CityofIndustryCA91744USA
+16263305893 40065136632112 +18882728858
GeneralAgentinChinaMeihuaInternationalCultureMedia(Beijing)Co.,Ltd.
SaleDirector AliceXu
CustomerDirector JingliSu
14
(100600) +861085325020 +861085324450 +8618610451791 +8675561669601 +0085268522318
www.guojidichan.com editor@guojidichan.com sales@guojidichan.com pr@guojidichan.com china@guojidichan.com
ISSN2158-9372
LegalAdviser PingC.Shen,
LawOfficesofPingC.Shen
010
:
DataQuick.13
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Performance. Index
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ClaraChen :BeverlyHills,NewportBeach,Irvine
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Beverly Hills $12,950,000
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56 5,200 12,126
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58 11,000 43,560 1996
57 5,788 19,372
Irvine $1,460,000
54 3,600 6,625
DRE# 01894850
Clara@ClaraChenRealtor.com +1.949.228.6064
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610 10,574 20,000
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Beverly Hills Beverly Hills79.51519397533
Arcadia Arcadia201267700116000
San Marino San Marino55.5607024638
Palos Verdes Estates Palos Verdes EstatesPV360599422304499
La Canada Flintridge La Canada Flintridge42.5348125105
: Karen.Gee@coldwellbanker.com
: 660 W Huntington Dr, Arcadia CA 91007
: +1-626-315-8381 : 950 4037 8037
Lic#01714007
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:
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:12461 White Oak Way Poway, CA 92064 TEL: (760)212-3622 FAX: (858)679-2860
029Prices, plans, product information subject to change. All homes subject to prior sale. Prices and availability of homes subject to change without notice. See sales counselors for details. DRE License #00982816. 01/2013
visit lyonhomes.com
Gardenia at Rosedale ThreeSixty
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Gardenia at Rosedale - Azusa2 1,350-1,816
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LyonGardenia.com
The Flats at ThreeSixty - Los Angeles 957-1,662
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The Row at ThreeSixty - Los Angeles3 1,549-2,152
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The Branches in woodbridge - Irvine2013
2,209-2,54235,2.53$900,000
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LyonCoyoteCreek.com
030
Emerging.Trends.in.Real.Estate 20122013.2013 /.20122012 STR2013201320122-3 0.9%-1.2%201361.4% $111.010.3%-4.6%...
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ZHANG & ATTORNEYS, L.P.US IMMIGRATION ATTORNEYS AND COUNSELORSNew York *Houston *Chicago *Austin *Los Angeles *Silicon Valley *Seattle
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9999 Bellaire Blvd, Suite 920, Houston, TX 77036Email: info@hooyou.com :+1713-771-8368
:+1-800-230-7040:www.hooyou.com
Kristin Whitaker
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The. second. generation. of. Chinese.shopping.centers.emerged. in. the.21st.century,.at.a.time.when.China's.economy.had.matured. and. the. pace. of. urban.development.had.accelerated.even.further..Additionally,. the.growth.of.the.Chinese.retail.and.real.estate. industries. favored.further,. large-scale.development.of. the.shopping.center.concept.The. latest. generation. of. shopping.
centers.was. built. on. the. operational.practices. of. the. first. generation. of.shopping.centers,.but.also.applied.lessons.from. shopping. center.development. in.Hong.Kong.and. international.markets.to. the.mainland.Chinese.market.. In. the.process,. shopping.center.development.and. operations. became.much.more.standardized.. The. rapid. commercial.success. of. the. second. generation. of.
shopping.centers.prompted.their.owners.to.enter.an.increasing.number.of.Chinese.cities..However,.the.rapid.development.of.the.
shopping.center. industry.and.the.ready.availability.of.capital.also.resulted.in.some.less.successful,.speculative.projects.and.a.bifurcation.in.Chinese.shopping.center.performance..Not.all.centers.adhered.to.professional.management.practices..For.example,.multi-owned.strata.title.centers,.which.sell.shops.to. individual. investors.(rather.than.renting.them.out.to.tenants),.now.account. for.55%.of. all.mainland.centers,.a.number.of.them.have.performed.poorly..Some.Chinese. shopping.center.developers.have.been.able.to.correct.the.problems. that. they.have. encountered.and.have. turned.around. their. centers'.performance..The.remedial.actions.of.other.
ShoppingCenterDevelopmentinChinaCurrentsituation,challengesandsolutions
developers,.however,.have.not.succeeded.and.they.have.exited.the.market..In.this.chapter,. I.will.choose.Beijing.
and. Shanghai. as. typical. examples.to. introduce. the. current. situation.of.shopping.center.development.in.China,.after.that.the.trends.of.shopping.center.development. in. China. is. also. to. be.discussed..By.basing.on.the.comparison.between. the. current. situation. in.China. and. the.previous. introduction.of. shopping. center. development. in.developed.countries.and.region,. some.problems.of.shopping.center.development.in.China.will.be.summarized.With. . the. . growth. . of. . China's..
economy,..shopping..centers..play..an..increasingly.important.role.in.the.retail.industry. and. the.urban.development.process.. Some. centers. place. great.
057
emphasis.on.professional.management.and. are. quite. profitable..However,.rapid.growth.and.ready.capital.have.resulted.in.some.less.successful.centers..Nonetheless,. the. prospects. for. the.shopping. center. industry. are. good.as. shopping.centers.account. for. less.than. 10%. of. total. retail. sales. and.given.China's.expected.economic.and.population.growth..ShanghaishoppingcenteroverviewAs.we.know,.Shanghai. is. trying. its.
best.to.build.itself.into.an.international.center.of.finance,.trade.and.commerce,.a. new. retail. economy. has. evolved.accordingly..During. the.past. twenty.years,. the. retail. sector. in.Shanghai.has. been. developed. from. a. simple.and. inefficient. distribution. system.to. a.much.more. complex. and.high.quality.market..Neither.Hall. (1996).
nor.Friedmann. (1986).had. included.retailing.development.level.as.a.defining.characteristic.of.a.world.city,.but.as.we.see.nowadays.from.cities.all.over.the.world,.all.world.cities.have.very.strong.retail.sector.and.shopping.center.development.Shanghai,. being.one. of. the.world.
cities,.has. its.own.retail.development.history. including. shopping. center.development..According.to.Wang.and.Zhang. (2005),. Shanghai. retail. has.experienced.five.steps.to.be.able.to.have.what.the.development.level.of.retail.in.Shanghai.As. it. has. been. described. above,.
there.is.a.retail.revolution.in.Shanghai.during. the.past.20.years..Shopping.center.development. in.Shanghai.has.been.being.developed.with. the.same.rhythm.to.retail..Today.there.are.many.
shopping.centers.projects. in.Shanghai..As.seen.from.Exhibit.1.below,.same.as.all.other.traditional.Chinese.cities,. the.retail.projects. in.Shanghai.has.grown.from. city. center. to. suburban. area..Traditional. commercial. department.stores.and.commercial.streets.are.mainly.locating. in. the. city. center.while. the.regional. shopping.centers. and.boxes.are.placed.and.developed.a.bit.out.of.the. traditional. town.center..Exhibit.2.shows.the.main.figures.for.the.regional.shopping.centers.in.Shanghai..This.will.be.used. in. the.summary.of. shopping.center.development.in.Shanghai.to.help.the.analysis.Start.real.shopping.center.development.
later. than. developed. countries. and.regionAs.introduced. in.beginning.of.this.section,.Shanghai.start.to.introduce.shopping.center.development.from.late.1990s..This. comparing. to.western.developed.countries.is.30-40.years.late..On.one.hand,.Shanghai.is.following.the.trends.from.western.countries.including.the.retail.economy,.but.on.another.hand,.
Exhibit1Shanghairetailprojectsdestructionmap
(Source:AuthorsurveyedandproducedbyMapinfo.)
Exhibit2MainregionalshoppingcenterinShanghai
058
Chinese.cities.including.Shanghai.have.its.own.characteristics.when.it.comes.to.retail.development.due.to.Chinese.government.in.a.long.time.had.not.deregulated.its.old.retail.laws.and.regulations.Different. shopping. center. format.
comparing. to.developed.countries.and.regionIn.Shanghai,.as.seen.from.Exhibit.5-4,.most. of. the. regional. shopping.centers.in.Shanghai.are.connected.to.the.public. transportation.system.especially.to.subway.system.and.with.many.levels..This.is.different.from.U.S.A.and.Europe,.but. similar. to.Hong.Kong..The.reason.for.it.is.same.to.Hong.Kong,.because.the.encouragement.of.public. transportation.by.government..High.traffic.pressure.has.
convinced.Shanghai.government.to.put.all.effort.to.develop.the.subway.system.and.bus. system..This.has. leaded. . the..shopping..center..development..to..a..new..way..comparing..to..western.countries.ShoppingcenterdevelopmentinBeijingSimilar. to.Shanghai,.Beijing.has.also.
passed.through.the.previous.mentioned.five. steps. to. come. to.nowadays. retail.development. level . . As. mentioned.previously. in. this. paper,. Beijing. city.is.much.more.developed. in.north.part.comparing. to. south. part.. This. also.can.be.applied. to. the. shopping.center.development.and.distribution. in.Beijing..From.Exhibit.3,.we.can.easily.find.that.most.of.the.retail.projects.are.locating.in.
north.of.Beijing.and.there.are.very.few.projects. in.south.. In.Beijing,.now.it. is.transition.period.from.department.store.to.shopping.center..Department.stores.are.still.the.mainly.players.on.the.market.while. the. development. of. shopping.centers.is.also.catching.up.rapidly.There.are.a. lot.of.department.stores,.
and. they.mainly. located. in. the. city.center.of.Beijing..Meanwhile,.more.and.more. regional. shopping.centers.have.been.being.construction.and. they.are.spreading.out.at.the.board.of.the.city..Those. regional. shopping.centers. are.close.to.the.city.expressway,.out.of.town.and.few.of.them.also.have.connection.to. subway. lines..Beijing. is. imitating.the.American.way.of.shopping.center.development.and.city.growth..The.main.regional.shopping.center.status.has.been.summarized.by.author.into.the.Exhibit.4.as.seen.from.below:Similar.project. format. to.Shanghai,.
but.different.to.U.S.A.and.EuropeAs.described.previously. for. the.shopping.center. format. in. Shanghai,. Beijing.shopping.centers.are.very.similar.to.it..With.many.levels.and.recent.built,.most.of.the.shopping.centers.in.Beijing.do.not.have.as.many.car.parking.as.the.projects.in.U.S.A.and.Europe.Less.convenient.connection.to.public.
transportation.comparing.to.Hong.Kong.Hong.Kong.and.Shanghai.those.two.
059
cities.share.one.similarity.that.most.of.the.shopping.center.projects.have.good.connection.to.subway.etc..But.in.Beijing,.the.most.of.the.shopping.center.projects.have. poor. connection. to. the. public.transportation.system.I n con sp i cuou s . appea r anc e . o f.
internationalizationAs. same. to.Shanghai,.shopping.center.development.in.Beijing. is.now.trying.to. learn.from.developed.countries.and.region..Some.of.the.projects.in.Beijing.now.provide.a.lot.more.car.parking.spaces.due.to.the.customer.needs.and.also.because.learning.from.developed.countries'..projects.Trendsofshoppingcenterdevelopment
inChinaDesp i t e . the . cur rent . prob lems.
mentioned. in.previous. section.of. the.
history.of.shopping.center.development.in.China. that. some. shopping.centers.are. experiencing. as. a. result. of. the.industry's.rapid.growth.in.recent.years,.the.longer.term.prospects.for.the.Chinese.shopping.center. industry.are.good.and.many.new. shopping. centers.will. be.constructed..As.stated.before,.shopping.centers.account. for. less. than.10%.of.the.total.retail.sales. in.China,.which.is.a.much.lower.percentage.than.in.other.markets..Additionally,.China's.ongoing.economic.growth,. increasing. levels.of.household. income,.changing. lifestyles.and.growing.population.create.a.very.favorable.environment.for.the.growth.of.the.retail.and.shopping.center.industries..As.China's.infrastructure.develops,.there.should.be.many.opportunities.to.build.
Exhibit3Beijingretailprojectsdestructionmap
(Source:AuthorsurveyedandproducedbyMapinfo.)
new.shopping.centers,.not.just.in.larger.cities. but. also. in.medium-sized. and.smaller.cities..There.are.3,052.cities.and.counties.
in.China. and. among. them. there. are.more.than.310.cities.with.a.population.of.over.200,000.by.end.of.2010.-.a.great.opportunity. for.shopping.center.development.. Provided. the. industry.returns. to. sound.operating.practices.and.avoids.ill-considered.expansion.that.results. in.market.saturation,.shopping.centers.should.continue.to.generate.good.returns.for.investors.
ByLiangpingWangDeptof RealEstateandConstructionManagementKTH,SchoolofArchitectureandtheBuiltEnvironment(ABE)
Exhibit4MainregionalshoppingcenterinBeijing
060
According.to.the.Chinese.unit.of.U.S..real. estate. firm. Jones. Lang. LaSalle,.Beijing.saw.a.slowdown.in.high-end.office.building.demand.during.the.fourth.quarter.of.2012,.and.the.year.as.a.whole.was.relatively. sluggish..At.0.7.percent.quarter-on-quarter,. it.was. the. slowest.growth. in. rental. prices. for. high-end.offices.in.Beijing.in.the.past.three.years..That.slowing.trend.fits.with.the.overall.economic.goals.of.the.national.government,.which.is.trying.to.trade.short-term.gain.for.long-term.stability.It.was. reported. last.quarter. that.a.
number.of. tenants.handed. space.back.to. the.market.and. in. response,. several.landlords.were.willing.to.offer.discounted.rents.or.other.incentives.in.order.to.attract.what. they.deemed. to.be.high-quality.tenants,.the.Jones.Lang.LaSalle.report.said.But. for. those.hoping. for. a. drop. in.
residential. rents,. the.outlook. for.2013.
still.is.not.good..Ryan.Isip,.a.local.director.in.China.for.Jones.Lang.LaSalle,.said.the.forecast.for.this.year. is.very.positive. --.for.owners..According.to.the.company's.2012.fourth-quarter.report,.this.year.the.market.will.continue. to. favor. landlords.and.is.thus.poised.for.more.rental.growth.over. the. next. twelve.months..The.report,.however,. also.highlighted. that.yields.for.owners.are.expected.to.maintain.a.downward.trend,.as.a.result.of.Beijing's.increasingly.high.property.taxes.TheParadoxOfEmptyLuxuryBuildingsBut. China.watchers. aren't.worried.
about. falling. yields.. They. are.more.concerned.about.the.risk.of.a.real.estate.bubble.bursting. in. the. country..After.all,. the.very. crisis. that.prompted. the.Beijing.government.to.pass.that.stimulus.package.in.2009.began.with.a.collapse.of.real.estate.prices.in.America..Now.the.government.is.trying.to.stop.the.inflation.of.real.estate.prices.by.cooling.down.the.
China'sCrazyRealEstateMarket:IsTheBubbleBursting?
market.In. March. 2012,. Premier. Wen.
Jiabao.answered.the.call.of.the.public,.assuring. that.his.government.would.keep.fighting.one.of.the.factors.behind.booming.prices:.speculation..Wen.told.the.media.that.to.back.off.from.the.issue.would.cause.chaos.in.the.real.estate.market..The.government.slowed.the.purchases.of.homes. in.some.cities.by.requiring. larger.down.payments.and.introducing. increased.property. taxes,.and.sent.out.eight.teams.of.regulators.to. 16. provinces. to. check. on. the.implementation.of.the.new.rules.by.local.governments.A.month.after.Wen.announced. the.
government's.commitment,. the.China.Real. Estate. Index. System. (CREIS).showed.a.nationwide.drop.of.housing.prices.by.0.71.percent. compared. to.the.previous.year..When.China's. top.policymakers.gathered. in.Beijing. for.a. closed-door.meeting,. the. Central.Economic.Work.Conference,. in. late.2012,. they. agreed. to. continue. the.property.control.policies.in.2013.But.then,.there's.corruption..Partly,.it's.
a.result.of.China's.laws.being.unable.to.keep.up.with.the.pace.of.development.
061
CreativeCorruptionJus t . 30. yea r s . ago , . the . mere.
notion.of.Beijing's.skyline. filled.with.privately. owned. skyscrapers. and.luxury. apartments.would.have.been.incomprehensible.. Though. private.ownership.of.homes.and.office.buildings.is.now.legal,. land.still.belongs.to.local.governments,.and.can.only.be.leased.(for.long.periods.of.time).to.developers.That.adds.another. level.of.potential.
corruption,. which. contributes. to.distorted.market.values. and. inflated.pricing..Local.government.officials.often.lease.out.the.land.to.developers.willing.to.pay.more.than.the.actual.value,.or.to.pay.kickbacks.. In.turn,. the.cost.of.
development.goes.up.and.must.be.made.up.by.selling.units.at.a.higher.rate..Another.trend.among.China's.wealthy.
is. to.purchase.multiple.properties.as.investments,. in.hopes.of. re-selling.at.an.even.higher.price..This. leads. to.a.situation.where.many.brand-new.luxury.buildings.are.only.half.occupied,.but.are.still.unaffordable.China's.central.government.has.begun.
stepping.in.recent.years,.rolling.out.new.policies. including.bans.on.third-home.purchases.and.restrictions.on.mortgage.borrowing,.as.a.way.to.tighten.controls.on. a. runaway.market.. In. addition.to. government. policies,. increased.government-subsidized.housing.was.
planned.for.low-income.citizens.A.high-profile.push.to.build.affordable.
homes.for.the.millions.of.Chinese.who.no. longer. have. reasonable. options.began. in.2010..The.program.aims.to.build.36.million.units.by.2015..The.effort. is. spearheaded.by.Li.Keqiang,.the.successor.to.outgoing.Premier.Wen,.which.ensures. the.plan.will. continue.to.be.a.priority.in.2013..Xinhua.News.Agency.reported.that.more. than.820.billion.yuan.($160.billion).was.invested.in.the.program.last.year.Of.course,.the.economic.benefits.that.
a.thriving.property.market.has.provided.for.China.cannot.be.ignored..Increased.infrastructure.development,.whether.for.affordable.housing.or.not,. equals.more. jobs,.booming.steel.and.cement.industries,. and. increased. revenue. in.taxes.for.local.governments..And.home.living.standards.have.improved.not.only.for. those.who.can.afford. luxury,.but.also.for.those.in.government-subsidized.housing.units,.now.better. than. those.that.cities.previously.built.Bu t . the . soc i a l . impac t . o f . the.
skyrocketing.housing.market.is.a.huge.concern. for. the. stability-obsessed.country..The.blatant.disparities.between.wealthy.homeowners.with.multiple.properties.and.those.who.cannot.afford.rent.highlight.a.deepening.divide.
ByMichelleFlorCruz,IBTimes
062
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