国际地产 International Real Estate Journal - Feb 2013

001

2013/02 International Real Estate Journal

Shopping Center Development in China

China's Crazy Real Estate Market

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ISSN2158

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009

Contents

- ...................................010..........................012 - ..........................................014

........................................................024...............................................................026

2013 ..................................................030...............................................................032..................................034

........................................................038...............................................................040

........................................................044...........046

................................................052..................................054

Shopping.Center.Development.in.China....................................... 056China's.Crazy.Real.Estate.Market.................................................... 060

.........................................................................018

009

Organizer AmericanChineseTrading&Investment

PromotionAssociation(ACTIPA)

Publisher ChineseBizNews,ChineseRealEstate

News,USA

EditorinChief BarrySu

ExecutiveEditor XiaoqunWang

DeputyEditor Lieminwangn

PlanningDirector PufangShen

MarketingDirector JuanYanezCarrera

ArtDirector MayLiao

SaleDirector AllisonHsieh

SalesManager JohnZhao,YanWen

15713 91744 15713ValleyBlvd., CityofIndustryCA91744USA

+16263305893 40065136632112 +18882728858

GeneralAgentinChinaMeihuaInternationalCultureMedia(Beijing)Co.,Ltd.

SaleDirector AliceXu

CustomerDirector JingliSu

14

(100600) +861085325020 +861085324450 +8618610451791 +8675561669601 +0085268522318

www.guojidichan.com [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

ISSN2158-9372

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DataQuick.13

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DRE # 01795483 MLO# 376559 DRE# 01778794

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Newport Coast Garden Inn Motel

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Beverly Hills $12,950,000

Newport Coast $4,499,000

56 5,200 12,126

Laguna Hills $5,695,000

58 11,000 43,560 1996

57 5,788 19,372

Irvine $1,460,000

54 3,600 6,625

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186 1045 1791 / 186 6589 0387 / 137 1862 1392

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Newport Beach Newport Beach18054.552057083

Beverly Hills Beverly Hills79.51519397533

Arcadia Arcadia201267700116000

San Marino San Marino55.5607024638

Palos Verdes Estates Palos Verdes EstatesPV360599422304499

La Canada Flintridge La Canada Flintridge42.5348125105

: [email protected]

: 660 W Huntington Dr, Arcadia CA 91007

: +1-626-315-8381 : 950 4037 8037

Lic#01714007

023

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ZD CONSULTING GROUP

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1 22201212 18.08 11.5%201246520072011 9.2%2012 17.66 2011 6.3%200520123%40 CoreLogic.1420127.5% 66%CoreLogic

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026

2012 65.3% 1996 2004 69.4%

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Manufacturer of High Quality Windows & Doors

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:12461 White Oak Way Poway, CA 92064 TEL: (760)212-3622 FAX: (858)679-2860

029Prices, plans, product information subject to change. All homes subject to prior sale. Prices and availability of homes subject to change without notice. See sales counselors for details. DRE License #00982816. 01/2013

visit lyonhomes.com

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LyonGardenia.com

The Flats at ThreeSixty - Los Angeles 957-1,662

21-2$300,000360SouthBay.com

The Row at ThreeSixty - Los Angeles3 1,549-2,152

23,2.53$500,000

360SouthBay.com

The Branches in woodbridge - Irvine2013

2,209-2,54235,2.53$900,000

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Willow Bend in University Park - Irvine2013

2,209-2,55635,2.53$900,000

LyonWillowbend.com

The Row at Coyote Creek - Milpitas 1,223-1,978

24,23.5$500,000

LyonCoyoteCreek.com

The Row at Coyote Creek - Milpitas 1,258-1,788

23,2.53.5$500,000

LyonCoyoteCreek.com

030

Emerging.Trends.in.Real.Estate 20122013.2013 /.20122012 STR2013201320122-3 0.9%-1.2%201361.4% $111.010.3%-4.6%...

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EddyChaoCCIM,SIOR,CPM,ALC,CIPS,CES

[email protected]+1.213.680.8811www.apccusa.com

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ZHANG & ATTORNEYS, L.P.US IMMIGRATION ATTORNEYS AND COUNSELORSNew York *Houston *Chicago *Austin *Los Angeles *Silicon Valley *Seattle

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(EB-5)(L-1)(EB-1C)(EB-1A)(NIW)

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9999 Bellaire Blvd, Suite 920, Houston, TX 77036Email: [email protected] :+1713-771-8368

:+1-800-230-7040:www.hooyou.com

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The. second. generation. of. Chinese.shopping.centers.emerged. in. the.21st.century,.at.a.time.when.China's.economy.had.matured. and. the. pace. of. urban.development.had.accelerated.even.further..Additionally,. the.growth.of.the.Chinese.retail.and.real.estate. industries. favored.further,. large-scale.development.of. the.shopping.center.concept.The. latest. generation. of. shopping.

centers.was. built. on. the. operational.practices. of. the. first. generation. of.shopping.centers,.but.also.applied.lessons.from. shopping. center.development. in.Hong.Kong.and. international.markets.to. the.mainland.Chinese.market.. In. the.process,. shopping.center.development.and. operations. became.much.more.standardized.. The. rapid. commercial.success. of. the. second. generation. of.

shopping.centers.prompted.their.owners.to.enter.an.increasing.number.of.Chinese.cities..However,.the.rapid.development.of.the.

shopping.center. industry.and.the.ready.availability.of.capital.also.resulted.in.some.less.successful,.speculative.projects.and.a.bifurcation.in.Chinese.shopping.center.performance..Not.all.centers.adhered.to.professional.management.practices..For.example,.multi-owned.strata.title.centers,.which.sell.shops.to. individual. investors.(rather.than.renting.them.out.to.tenants),.now.account. for.55%.of. all.mainland.centers,.a.number.of.them.have.performed.poorly..Some.Chinese. shopping.center.developers.have.been.able.to.correct.the.problems. that. they.have. encountered.and.have. turned.around. their. centers'.performance..The.remedial.actions.of.other.

ShoppingCenterDevelopmentinChinaCurrentsituation,challengesandsolutions

developers,.however,.have.not.succeeded.and.they.have.exited.the.market..In.this.chapter,. I.will.choose.Beijing.

and. Shanghai. as. typical. examples.to. introduce. the. current. situation.of.shopping.center.development.in.China,.after.that.the.trends.of.shopping.center.development. in. China. is. also. to. be.discussed..By.basing.on.the.comparison.between. the. current. situation. in.China. and. the.previous. introduction.of. shopping. center. development. in.developed.countries.and.region,. some.problems.of.shopping.center.development.in.China.will.be.summarized.With. . the. . growth. . of. . China's..

economy,..shopping..centers..play..an..increasingly.important.role.in.the.retail.industry. and. the.urban.development.process.. Some. centers. place. great.

057

emphasis.on.professional.management.and. are. quite. profitable..However,.rapid.growth.and.ready.capital.have.resulted.in.some.less.successful.centers..Nonetheless,. the. prospects. for. the.shopping. center. industry. are. good.as. shopping.centers.account. for. less.than. 10%. of. total. retail. sales. and.given.China's.expected.economic.and.population.growth..ShanghaishoppingcenteroverviewAs.we.know,.Shanghai. is. trying. its.

best.to.build.itself.into.an.international.center.of.finance,.trade.and.commerce,.a. new. retail. economy. has. evolved.accordingly..During. the.past. twenty.years,. the. retail. sector. in.Shanghai.has. been. developed. from. a. simple.and. inefficient. distribution. system.to. a.much.more. complex. and.high.quality.market..Neither.Hall. (1996).

nor.Friedmann. (1986).had. included.retailing.development.level.as.a.defining.characteristic.of.a.world.city,.but.as.we.see.nowadays.from.cities.all.over.the.world,.all.world.cities.have.very.strong.retail.sector.and.shopping.center.development.Shanghai,. being.one. of. the.world.

cities,.has. its.own.retail.development.history. including. shopping. center.development..According.to.Wang.and.Zhang. (2005),. Shanghai. retail. has.experienced.five.steps.to.be.able.to.have.what.the.development.level.of.retail.in.Shanghai.As. it. has. been. described. above,.

there.is.a.retail.revolution.in.Shanghai.during. the.past.20.years..Shopping.center.development. in.Shanghai.has.been.being.developed.with. the.same.rhythm.to.retail..Today.there.are.many.

shopping.centers.projects. in.Shanghai..As.seen.from.Exhibit.1.below,.same.as.all.other.traditional.Chinese.cities,. the.retail.projects. in.Shanghai.has.grown.from. city. center. to. suburban. area..Traditional. commercial. department.stores.and.commercial.streets.are.mainly.locating. in. the. city. center.while. the.regional. shopping.centers. and.boxes.are.placed.and.developed.a.bit.out.of.the. traditional. town.center..Exhibit.2.shows.the.main.figures.for.the.regional.shopping.centers.in.Shanghai..This.will.be.used. in. the.summary.of. shopping.center.development.in.Shanghai.to.help.the.analysis.Start.real.shopping.center.development.

later. than. developed. countries. and.regionAs.introduced. in.beginning.of.this.section,.Shanghai.start.to.introduce.shopping.center.development.from.late.1990s..This. comparing. to.western.developed.countries.is.30-40.years.late..On.one.hand,.Shanghai.is.following.the.trends.from.western.countries.including.the.retail.economy,.but.on.another.hand,.

Exhibit1Shanghairetailprojectsdestructionmap

(Source:AuthorsurveyedandproducedbyMapinfo.)

Exhibit2MainregionalshoppingcenterinShanghai

058

Chinese.cities.including.Shanghai.have.its.own.characteristics.when.it.comes.to.retail.development.due.to.Chinese.government.in.a.long.time.had.not.deregulated.its.old.retail.laws.and.regulations.Different. shopping. center. format.

comparing. to.developed.countries.and.regionIn.Shanghai,.as.seen.from.Exhibit.5-4,.most. of. the. regional. shopping.centers.in.Shanghai.are.connected.to.the.public. transportation.system.especially.to.subway.system.and.with.many.levels..This.is.different.from.U.S.A.and.Europe,.but. similar. to.Hong.Kong..The.reason.for.it.is.same.to.Hong.Kong,.because.the.encouragement.of.public. transportation.by.government..High.traffic.pressure.has.

convinced.Shanghai.government.to.put.all.effort.to.develop.the.subway.system.and.bus. system..This.has. leaded. . the..shopping..center..development..to..a..new..way..comparing..to..western.countries.ShoppingcenterdevelopmentinBeijingSimilar. to.Shanghai,.Beijing.has.also.

passed.through.the.previous.mentioned.five. steps. to. come. to.nowadays. retail.development. level . . As. mentioned.previously. in. this. paper,. Beijing. city.is.much.more.developed. in.north.part.comparing. to. south. part.. This. also.can.be.applied. to. the. shopping.center.development.and.distribution. in.Beijing..From.Exhibit.3,.we.can.easily.find.that.most.of.the.retail.projects.are.locating.in.

north.of.Beijing.and.there.are.very.few.projects. in.south.. In.Beijing,.now.it. is.transition.period.from.department.store.to.shopping.center..Department.stores.are.still.the.mainly.players.on.the.market.while. the. development. of. shopping.centers.is.also.catching.up.rapidly.There.are.a. lot.of.department.stores,.

and. they.mainly. located. in. the. city.center.of.Beijing..Meanwhile,.more.and.more. regional. shopping.centers.have.been.being.construction.and. they.are.spreading.out.at.the.board.of.the.city..Those. regional. shopping.centers. are.close.to.the.city.expressway,.out.of.town.and.few.of.them.also.have.connection.to. subway. lines..Beijing. is. imitating.the.American.way.of.shopping.center.development.and.city.growth..The.main.regional.shopping.center.status.has.been.summarized.by.author.into.the.Exhibit.4.as.seen.from.below:Similar.project. format. to.Shanghai,.

but.different.to.U.S.A.and.EuropeAs.described.previously. for. the.shopping.center. format. in. Shanghai,. Beijing.shopping.centers.are.very.similar.to.it..With.many.levels.and.recent.built,.most.of.the.shopping.centers.in.Beijing.do.not.have.as.many.car.parking.as.the.projects.in.U.S.A.and.Europe.Less.convenient.connection.to.public.

transportation.comparing.to.Hong.Kong.Hong.Kong.and.Shanghai.those.two.

059

cities.share.one.similarity.that.most.of.the.shopping.center.projects.have.good.connection.to.subway.etc..But.in.Beijing,.the.most.of.the.shopping.center.projects.have. poor. connection. to. the. public.transportation.system.I n con sp i cuou s . appea r anc e . o f.

internationalizationAs. same. to.Shanghai,.shopping.center.development.in.Beijing. is.now.trying.to. learn.from.developed.countries.and.region..Some.of.the.projects.in.Beijing.now.provide.a.lot.more.car.parking.spaces.due.to.the.customer.needs.and.also.because.learning.from.developed.countries'..projects.Trendsofshoppingcenterdevelopment

inChinaDesp i t e . the . cur rent . prob lems.

mentioned. in.previous. section.of. the.

history.of.shopping.center.development.in.China. that. some. shopping.centers.are. experiencing. as. a. result. of. the.industry's.rapid.growth.in.recent.years,.the.longer.term.prospects.for.the.Chinese.shopping.center. industry.are.good.and.many.new. shopping. centers.will. be.constructed..As.stated.before,.shopping.centers.account. for. less. than.10%.of.the.total.retail.sales. in.China,.which.is.a.much.lower.percentage.than.in.other.markets..Additionally,.China's.ongoing.economic.growth,. increasing. levels.of.household. income,.changing. lifestyles.and.growing.population.create.a.very.favorable.environment.for.the.growth.of.the.retail.and.shopping.center.industries..As.China's.infrastructure.develops,.there.should.be.many.opportunities.to.build.

Exhibit3Beijingretailprojectsdestructionmap

(Source:AuthorsurveyedandproducedbyMapinfo.)

new.shopping.centers,.not.just.in.larger.cities. but. also. in.medium-sized. and.smaller.cities..There.are.3,052.cities.and.counties.

in.China. and. among. them. there. are.more.than.310.cities.with.a.population.of.over.200,000.by.end.of.2010.-.a.great.opportunity. for.shopping.center.development.. Provided. the. industry.returns. to. sound.operating.practices.and.avoids.ill-considered.expansion.that.results. in.market.saturation,.shopping.centers.should.continue.to.generate.good.returns.for.investors.

ByLiangpingWangDeptof RealEstateandConstructionManagementKTH,SchoolofArchitectureandtheBuiltEnvironment(ABE)

Exhibit4MainregionalshoppingcenterinBeijing

060

According.to.the.Chinese.unit.of.U.S..real. estate. firm. Jones. Lang. LaSalle,.Beijing.saw.a.slowdown.in.high-end.office.building.demand.during.the.fourth.quarter.of.2012,.and.the.year.as.a.whole.was.relatively. sluggish..At.0.7.percent.quarter-on-quarter,. it.was. the. slowest.growth. in. rental. prices. for. high-end.offices.in.Beijing.in.the.past.three.years..That.slowing.trend.fits.with.the.overall.economic.goals.of.the.national.government,.which.is.trying.to.trade.short-term.gain.for.long-term.stability.It.was. reported. last.quarter. that.a.

number.of. tenants.handed. space.back.to. the.market.and. in. response,. several.landlords.were.willing.to.offer.discounted.rents.or.other.incentives.in.order.to.attract.what. they.deemed. to.be.high-quality.tenants,.the.Jones.Lang.LaSalle.report.said.But. for. those.hoping. for. a. drop. in.

residential. rents,. the.outlook. for.2013.

still.is.not.good..Ryan.Isip,.a.local.director.in.China.for.Jones.Lang.LaSalle,.said.the.forecast.for.this.year. is.very.positive. --.for.owners..According.to.the.company's.2012.fourth-quarter.report,.this.year.the.market.will.continue. to. favor. landlords.and.is.thus.poised.for.more.rental.growth.over. the. next. twelve.months..The.report,.however,. also.highlighted. that.yields.for.owners.are.expected.to.maintain.a.downward.trend,.as.a.result.of.Beijing's.increasingly.high.property.taxes.TheParadoxOfEmptyLuxuryBuildingsBut. China.watchers. aren't.worried.

about. falling. yields.. They. are.more.concerned.about.the.risk.of.a.real.estate.bubble.bursting. in. the. country..After.all,. the.very. crisis. that.prompted. the.Beijing.government.to.pass.that.stimulus.package.in.2009.began.with.a.collapse.of.real.estate.prices.in.America..Now.the.government.is.trying.to.stop.the.inflation.of.real.estate.prices.by.cooling.down.the.

China'sCrazyRealEstateMarket:IsTheBubbleBursting?

market.In. March. 2012,. Premier. Wen.

Jiabao.answered.the.call.of.the.public,.assuring. that.his.government.would.keep.fighting.one.of.the.factors.behind.booming.prices:.speculation..Wen.told.the.media.that.to.back.off.from.the.issue.would.cause.chaos.in.the.real.estate.market..The.government.slowed.the.purchases.of.homes. in.some.cities.by.requiring. larger.down.payments.and.introducing. increased.property. taxes,.and.sent.out.eight.teams.of.regulators.to. 16. provinces. to. check. on. the.implementation.of.the.new.rules.by.local.governments.A.month.after.Wen.announced. the.

government's.commitment,. the.China.Real. Estate. Index. System. (CREIS).showed.a.nationwide.drop.of.housing.prices.by.0.71.percent. compared. to.the.previous.year..When.China's. top.policymakers.gathered. in.Beijing. for.a. closed-door.meeting,. the. Central.Economic.Work.Conference,. in. late.2012,. they. agreed. to. continue. the.property.control.policies.in.2013.But.then,.there's.corruption..Partly,.it's.

a.result.of.China's.laws.being.unable.to.keep.up.with.the.pace.of.development.

061

CreativeCorruptionJus t . 30. yea r s . ago , . the . mere.

notion.of.Beijing's.skyline. filled.with.privately. owned. skyscrapers. and.luxury. apartments.would.have.been.incomprehensible.. Though. private.ownership.of.homes.and.office.buildings.is.now.legal,. land.still.belongs.to.local.governments,.and.can.only.be.leased.(for.long.periods.of.time).to.developers.That.adds.another. level.of.potential.

corruption,. which. contributes. to.distorted.market.values. and. inflated.pricing..Local.government.officials.often.lease.out.the.land.to.developers.willing.to.pay.more.than.the.actual.value,.or.to.pay.kickbacks.. In.turn,. the.cost.of.

development.goes.up.and.must.be.made.up.by.selling.units.at.a.higher.rate..Another.trend.among.China's.wealthy.

is. to.purchase.multiple.properties.as.investments,. in.hopes.of. re-selling.at.an.even.higher.price..This. leads. to.a.situation.where.many.brand-new.luxury.buildings.are.only.half.occupied,.but.are.still.unaffordable.China's.central.government.has.begun.

stepping.in.recent.years,.rolling.out.new.policies. including.bans.on.third-home.purchases.and.restrictions.on.mortgage.borrowing,.as.a.way.to.tighten.controls.on. a. runaway.market.. In. addition.to. government. policies,. increased.government-subsidized.housing.was.

planned.for.low-income.citizens.A.high-profile.push.to.build.affordable.

homes.for.the.millions.of.Chinese.who.no. longer. have. reasonable. options.began. in.2010..The.program.aims.to.build.36.million.units.by.2015..The.effort. is. spearheaded.by.Li.Keqiang,.the.successor.to.outgoing.Premier.Wen,.which.ensures. the.plan.will. continue.to.be.a.priority.in.2013..Xinhua.News.Agency.reported.that.more. than.820.billion.yuan.($160.billion).was.invested.in.the.program.last.year.Of.course,.the.economic.benefits.that.

a.thriving.property.market.has.provided.for.China.cannot.be.ignored..Increased.infrastructure.development,.whether.for.affordable.housing.or.not,. equals.more. jobs,.booming.steel.and.cement.industries,. and. increased. revenue. in.taxes.for.local.governments..And.home.living.standards.have.improved.not.only.for. those.who.can.afford. luxury,.but.also.for.those.in.government-subsidized.housing.units,.now.better. than. those.that.cities.previously.built.Bu t . the . soc i a l . impac t . o f . the.

skyrocketing.housing.market.is.a.huge.concern. for. the. stability-obsessed.country..The.blatant.disparities.between.wealthy.homeowners.with.multiple.properties.and.those.who.cannot.afford.rent.highlight.a.deepening.divide.

ByMichelleFlorCruz,IBTimes

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国际地产 International Real Estate Journal - Feb 2013

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