Post on 18-Feb-2016
description
( )
1968 : 1974 : University of Rhode Island , () 1977 : The University of Texas at Austin , () 1977 - 1982 : , 1982 - : , 2002 - 2003 :
/
() ():21 () ( ) ()
--
(IPCC, 2007)
25
25% !!!
4 25%
!!!
Kwok, R., G. F. Cunningham, M. Wensnahan, I. Rigor, H. J. Zwally, and D. Yi (2009), Thinning and volume loss of the Arctic Ocean sea ice cover: 20032008, J. Geophys. Res., 114, C07005, doi:10.1029/2009JC005312, 7 July 2009:
(IPCC, 2007)
(IPCC, 2007)
(IPCC, 2007)
1981-2000 20812100 (%)
(Nohara, et. al, 2006)
(( ))
12
21/20
10%
20 100 21
Hirabayashi et al., HSJ,
(())
(1(1 100 mm 100 mm , , ))
:
, ,
(, , )
CO2 (04)
(20.7%)
(5.2%)
(17.2%)
(4.5%)
(4.5%)
(2.4%)
(1.7%)
(13.8%)
(4.8%)
(pop: 20.5%)
(: 2.0%)
(pop: 6,352million)
(: 7.0%)
(African pop: 13.7%)
(pop: 17.0%)
(p: 2.3%)(: 4.6%)
(: 20.5%)
(: 7.3%)
0.5Gt(1.6%)(pop: 0.7%)
EU
CO2
CO2
CO2 1Gt
02
EU(15)
EU(27)
1
Energy ( + )
: 60 : 2050 : 200-300 : 2100 Uranium : 50 : 2050
( )
ROMA CLUB
A1 : 31 Hg : 13 Cr : 95 W : 28
Cu : 21 Zn : 18 Pb : 21 Ni : 53
Oil Peak ( )20062006
Oil Natural gas Coal
41.6 years 60.3 years 133 years
(Sustainable Development)
(meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs)
* WCED, Our Common Future(1987)
1. :
2. :
3. :
(12 )
(10 )
20242024 1414 1717 2626 22 5959
((, , 55, 2010) , 2010)
(GDP)
IMF (1996) : 12 1996 (5574 $) 2011 : 23 2002 (5469 $) 7 2024 : 34 ()
2030 : 42 ???
: 300: 300 (30(30 ))
: : 77
2011. 9.22
. .
66
44
55
66
(4)(4)
(4)(4)
()
()
( )
U92235 + n --> f1 + f2 + (2,3)n + + heat
Sr3895 -> Y39
95 -> Zr4095 -> Nb41
95 -> Mo4295
U92235
Xe54139 -> Cs55
139 -> Ba56139 -> La57
139
( I53131 )
U92238 + n --> Pu94
239 + 2 : U, Pu(2-4%) , : " (90%)
( : 99.3% U238, 0.7% U235)Pu94
239--> U92235+ + (half life : 24,400 years) : 244,000
Sr3890---> Y39
90+ (half life : 28 years)Cs55
137 (half life : 30 years) : 300
( I53131 8 days )
Radioactive wastes : , , : : , , , , ((, , ) ,) ,
Uranium Producers
* 10 94%
Uranium Production and Demand
: World Nuclear Association
Uranium Peak ( )
:
> :
99%
> : / 99
90 / 137
> :
99%
> : / 99
90 / 137
: 2022
17
513 426 (85%) 79 8
Institutional Structure
17 Ethic CommissionEthic Commission
: Klaus Tpfer, Matthias Kleiner
Three working groups:
RenewablesRenewables chaired by Norbert Rttgen (Federal Minister for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety)
Grids and StorageGrids and Storage chaired by Rainer Brderle Federal Minister for Economy and Technology
Energy EfficencyEnergy Efficency chaired by Ronald Pofalla Federal Minister in the Chancellory
Ruling Coalition May 30, 2011
1717 20212021 . .
(( 20222022 ))
1717 77 ..
11 . .
99 66 20212021 ,,
33 20222022
Energy Concept
20202020 20502050
(1990(1990 ) ) 40% 40% 80~95% 80~95%
11 18%18% 60%60%
35%35% 80%80%
11 (2008(2008 ) ) 20% 20% 50% 50%
1% 1% 2%2%
(MW)
1 35,159
2 25,853
3 25,850
4 18,784
5 10,827
6 4,845
7 4,775
8 4,340
9 3,474
10 3,408
: BTM Consult Aps. 2009
(MW)
1 17,308
2 3,859
3 3,382
4 2,951
5 2,631
6 1,590
7 856
8 805
9 749
10 662
: , 2011
3 3, 1 , , ,
20 5
*1990 17.0TWh(3.1%) 2010 101.6TWh(16.8%)
Development of electricity generation from renewable energy sources in Germany
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
[GW
h]
Hydropower Wind energy
Biomass * Photovoltaics
* Solid and liquid biomass, biogas, sewage and landfill gas, biogenic share of waste; electricity from geothermal energy not presented due to negligible quantities produced; 1 GWh = 1 Mill. kWh;
StromEinspG: Act on the Sale of Electricity to the Grid; BauGB: Construction Code; EEG: Renewable Energy Sources Act;
Source: BMU-KI III 1 according to Working Group on Renewable Energy Sources-Statistics (AGEE-Stat); image: BMU / Christoph Edelhoff; as at: March 2011; all figures provisional
StromEinspG:
January 1991 - March
2000
Amendment to BauGB:
November 1997
EEG:
April 2000
EEG:
January 2009
EEG:
August 2004
Development of electricity production and installed capacity of wind energy plants in Germany
4,4
89
36
,50
0
38
,63
9
40
,57
4
39
,71
3
30
,71
0
27
,22
9
25
,50
9
18
,71
3
15
,78
6
10
,50
9
7,5
50
5,5
28
2,9
66
2,0
32
1,5
00
90
9
60
0
27
5
10
0
71
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
[GW
h]
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
[MW
]
Electricity generation [GWh]
installed capacity [MW]
Source: J.P. Molly: "Wind Energy Use in Germany"; as at: 31.12.2010;Deutsches Windenergie-Institut (DEWI) and Bundesverband WindEnergie e.V. (BWE); 1 MW = 1 Mill. Watt; image: BMU / Brigitte Hiss; all figures provisional
StromEinspG:
January 1991 - March
2000
Amendment to BauGB:
November 1997
EEG:
April 2000
EEG:
January 2009
EEG:
August 2004
27,204 MW
(1990 7.1GWh2010 36,500GWh)
(1990 1 200kWh, 20102MWh , 6MWh )
Classifications of wind energy plants in Germany
1.93.0
23.8
55.5
3.6
12.2
2.41.7
32.1
49.7
1.2
12.9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
< 1.5 MW 1.5 - 1.8 MW 2.0 MW 2.1 - 2.9 MW 3.0 - 5.0 MW > 5.0 MW
Sh
are
in
[%
]
2009
2010
Source: J.P. Molly, "Wind Energy Use in Germany"; as at: 31.12.2010;
Deutsches Windenergie-Institut (DEWI) and Bundesverband WindEnergie e.V. (BWE); deviations in the totals are due to rounding; image: H.G. Oed; all figures provisional
Installed capacity and energy supply from photovoltaic installations in Germany
12,0
00
6,5
78
4,4
20
3,0
75
2,2
20
1,2
82
556
31316276
644232261611863210
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
[MW
p ]
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
[GW
h]
Electricity supply [GWh]
installed capacity [MWp]
Source: BMU-KI III 1 according to Working Group on Renewable Energy Sources-Statistics (AGEE-Stat);
1 GWh = 1 Mill. kWh; 1 MW = 1 Mill. Watt; image: BMU / Bernd Mller; as at: March 2011; all figures provisional
17,320 MWp
(1990 1GWh2010 12,000GWh)
vs. ( / )
2030 0, 8300TOE
2030 25.4%( 2020 35%), .10.7%
( )
2006*
2010
2020
2030
Germany 42.5 33.4 8.6 0
Korea 37.2 36.9 63.6 83.4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
millionTOE
Germany
Korea
4.6%6.7%
9.5%
16.2%
25.4%
1.9% 2.0% 2.6%
5.8%
10.7%
2006* 2007 2010 2020 2030
Germany Korea
: : (2008), Leitstudie 2008( ), (2008): 1 ( : (2009), 2020 ) - : (2009)
4.21 4.00
3.52
3.08
4.835.11
5.87 6.18
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
2006 2010 2020 2030
TOE Germany
Korea
1990
1995
2000
2005
2020
Germany Lead
Scenario994 883 844 839 639
Korea Recent Trend
298.1 453.2 531 594.4
Korea Scenario 1
594.4 642
Korea Scenario 2
594.4 590
Korea Scenario 3
594.4 569
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Million Ton CO2
vs. ( / )
potential
O 1/4
:
: ( )
O : 2000 30%
O 1/4
1/3 ( )
O 15%
* : 1/3
((2020)2020)
(unit: MTOE)(unit: MTOE)
Electricity Savings Industrial Transportation Residential Commercial
4.370.131.014.56
ElectricityElectricity SavingsSavings TotalTotal 10.07
Sector Energy Savings byEfficiency Improvement
Primary Energy Savingsin Target Technologies 29.22
Note: * Primary energy savings are obtained by multiplying end-use electricity savings by a factor of 2.902, which is derived from
MOCIE/KEEI, 1999.
Total Primary Total Primary Energy Savings 33.60
(2020)(2020)
CO2
95.4 MTOE (28.7% )58.9 MTC (28.8% )
18
32.1 MTOE (128.3 TWh)
33.6 MTOE (149.5 TWh)
Note: * The BAU forecast is provided in MOCIE/KEEIs Third-Year Study of Planning National Actions for the UnitedNations Framework Convention on Climate Change (December 1999).
!!!!!!
NuclearNuclear Moratorium !!!Moratorium !!!
!!!!!!
IndustrialIndustrial
CommercialCommercial
TransportationTransportation
ResidentialResidential
5050
100100
150150
200200
250250
300300
350350
0019971997 20102010 1997199720202020 20102010 20202020
IndustrialIndustrial
CommercialCommercial
TransportationTransportation
ResidentialResidential
Savings = 86.4 MTOESavings = 86.4 MTOE
potential
18 :
: 54 5/ (5 )MTOE : 50/
, , (2020)(2020)
(Unit: MTOE/MTC)(Unit: MTOE/MTC)
ScenariosScenarios
COCO22
COCO22
332.2 204.4
95.495.4
9.7 2.9
58.958.9
7.93.95.7
224.2224.2
108.0108.0(32.5%(32.5%)) 128.0128.0
76.476.4(37.4%(37.4%))
: 20%
!!!
RE
(MW) (MW) ($1996/kW)
(MW)
Wind Power
Photovoltaic
Passive House
!
Zero Energy BuildingZero Energy BuildingU.K, CIS Tower
Japan, Solar Ark
France, Energy plus office
Germany, Klimahaus
4900
:
180, 20% , , ()
()
:
(4km)
( ) : .
( ) : .
Solar Complex : Singen, Germany
Solar Complex : Singen
500,000 L500,000 L
500,000 Kwh500,000 Kwh
100,000 100,000
100,000 100,000
Biomass 20,000 Biomass 20,000
100,000 100,000
100,000 100,000 220,000 220,000
4,000,000 Kwh4,000,000 Kwh 600,000 600,000
kuper Haide
82
()
Smart grid integration
Source: European Technology Platform Smart Grids, EU Commission, DG Research & Innovation
HEMSHome Energy Management System
(520 MW (520 MW (240)(240) 2.172.17) )
,,
(2,160 MW (2,160 MW (240)(240) 99))
(FIT) (FIT) (RPS) (RPS) ? ?
Tidal Power
Tidal Turbine Tidal Barrage
1. 1. 44 Four Major Rivers RestorationFour Major Rivers Restoration
2. 2. Green Energy DevelopmentGreen Energy Development
: 4: 4
: :