( )

1968 : 1974 : University of Rhode Island , () 1977 : The University of Texas at Austin , () 1977 - 1982 : , 1982 - : , 2002 - 2003 :

/

() ():21 () ( ) ()

--

(IPCC, 2007)

25

25% !!!

4 25%

!!!

Kwok, R., G. F. Cunningham, M. Wensnahan, I. Rigor, H. J. Zwally, and D. Yi (2009), Thinning and volume loss of the Arctic Ocean sea ice cover: 20032008, J. Geophys. Res., 114, C07005, doi:10.1029/2009JC005312, 7 July 2009:

(IPCC, 2007)

(IPCC, 2007)

(IPCC, 2007)

1981-2000 20812100 (%)

(Nohara, et. al, 2006)

(( ))

12

21/20

10%

20 100 21

Hirabayashi et al., HSJ,

(())

(1(1 100 mm 100 mm , , ))

:

, ,

(, , )

CO2 (04)

(20.7%)

(5.2%)

(17.2%)

(4.5%)

(4.5%)

(2.4%)

(1.7%)

(13.8%)

(4.8%)

(pop: 20.5%)

(: 2.0%)

(pop: 6,352million)

(: 7.0%)

(African pop: 13.7%)

(pop: 17.0%)

(p: 2.3%)(: 4.6%)

(: 20.5%)

(: 7.3%)

0.5Gt(1.6%)(pop: 0.7%)

EU

CO2

CO2

CO2 1Gt

02

EU(15)

EU(27)

1

Energy ( + )

: 60 : 2050 : 200-300 : 2100 Uranium : 50 : 2050

( )

ROMA CLUB

A1 : 31 Hg : 13 Cr : 95 W : 28

Cu : 21 Zn : 18 Pb : 21 Ni : 53

Oil Peak ( )20062006

Oil Natural gas Coal

41.6 years 60.3 years 133 years

(Sustainable Development)

(meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs)

* WCED, Our Common Future(1987)

1. :

2. :

3. :

(12 )

(10 )

20242024 1414 1717 2626 22 5959

((, , 55, 2010) , 2010)

(GDP)

IMF (1996) : 12 1996 (5574 $) 2011 : 23 2002 (5469 $) 7 2024 : 34 ()

2030 : 42 ???

: 300: 300 (30(30 ))

: : 77

2011. 9.22

. .

66

44

55

66

(4)(4)

(4)(4)

()

()

( )

U92235 + n --> f1 + f2 + (2,3)n + + heat

Sr3895 -> Y39

95 -> Zr4095 -> Nb41

95 -> Mo4295

U92235

Xe54139 -> Cs55

139 -> Ba56139 -> La57

139

( I53131 )

U92238 + n --> Pu94

239 + 2 : U, Pu(2-4%) , : " (90%)

( : 99.3% U238, 0.7% U235)Pu94

239--> U92235+ + (half life : 24,400 years) : 244,000

Sr3890---> Y39

90+ (half life : 28 years)Cs55

137 (half life : 30 years) : 300

( I53131 8 days )

Radioactive wastes : , , : : , , , , ((, , ) ,) ,

Uranium Producers

* 10 94%

Uranium Production and Demand

: World Nuclear Association

Uranium Peak ( )

:

> :

99%

> : / 99

90 / 137

> :

99%

> : / 99

90 / 137

: 2022

17

513 426 (85%) 79 8

Institutional Structure

17 Ethic CommissionEthic Commission

: Klaus Tpfer, Matthias Kleiner

Three working groups:

RenewablesRenewables chaired by Norbert Rttgen (Federal Minister for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety)

Grids and StorageGrids and Storage chaired by Rainer Brderle Federal Minister for Economy and Technology

Energy EfficencyEnergy Efficency chaired by Ronald Pofalla Federal Minister in the Chancellory

Ruling Coalition May 30, 2011

1717 20212021 . .

(( 20222022 ))

1717 77 ..

11 . .

99 66 20212021 ,,

33 20222022

Energy Concept

20202020 20502050

(1990(1990 ) ) 40% 40% 80~95% 80~95%

11 18%18% 60%60%

35%35% 80%80%

11 (2008(2008 ) ) 20% 20% 50% 50%

1% 1% 2%2%

(MW)

1 35,159

2 25,853

3 25,850

4 18,784

5 10,827

6 4,845

7 4,775

8 4,340

9 3,474

10 3,408

: BTM Consult Aps. 2009

(MW)

1 17,308

2 3,859

3 3,382

4 2,951

5 2,631

6 1,590

7 856

8 805

9 749

10 662

: , 2011

3 3, 1 , , ,

20 5

*1990 17.0TWh(3.1%) 2010 101.6TWh(16.8%)

Development of electricity generation from renewable energy sources in Germany

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

[GW

h]

Hydropower Wind energy

Biomass * Photovoltaics

* Solid and liquid biomass, biogas, sewage and landfill gas, biogenic share of waste; electricity from geothermal energy not presented due to negligible quantities produced; 1 GWh = 1 Mill. kWh;

StromEinspG: Act on the Sale of Electricity to the Grid; BauGB: Construction Code; EEG: Renewable Energy Sources Act;

Source: BMU-KI III 1 according to Working Group on Renewable Energy Sources-Statistics (AGEE-Stat); image: BMU / Christoph Edelhoff; as at: March 2011; all figures provisional

StromEinspG:

January 1991 - March

2000

Amendment to BauGB:

November 1997

EEG:

April 2000

EEG:

January 2009

EEG:

August 2004

Development of electricity production and installed capacity of wind energy plants in Germany

4,4

89

36

,50

0

38

,63

9

40

,57

4

39

,71

3

30

,71

0

27

,22

9

25

,50

9

18

,71

3

15

,78

6

10

,50

9

7,5

50

5,5

28

2,9

66

2,0

32

1,5

00

90

9

60

0

27

5

10

0

71

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

[GW

h]

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

[MW

]

Electricity generation [GWh]

installed capacity [MW]

Source: J.P. Molly: "Wind Energy Use in Germany"; as at: 31.12.2010;Deutsches Windenergie-Institut (DEWI) and Bundesverband WindEnergie e.V. (BWE); 1 MW = 1 Mill. Watt; image: BMU / Brigitte Hiss; all figures provisional

StromEinspG:

January 1991 - March

2000

Amendment to BauGB:

November 1997

EEG:

April 2000

EEG:

January 2009

EEG:

August 2004

27,204 MW

(1990 7.1GWh2010 36,500GWh)

(1990 1 200kWh, 20102MWh , 6MWh )

Classifications of wind energy plants in Germany

1.93.0

23.8

55.5

3.6

12.2

2.41.7

32.1

49.7

1.2

12.9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

< 1.5 MW 1.5 - 1.8 MW 2.0 MW 2.1 - 2.9 MW 3.0 - 5.0 MW > 5.0 MW

Sh

are

in

[%

]

2009

2010

Source: J.P. Molly, "Wind Energy Use in Germany"; as at: 31.12.2010;

Deutsches Windenergie-Institut (DEWI) and Bundesverband WindEnergie e.V. (BWE); deviations in the totals are due to rounding; image: H.G. Oed; all figures provisional

Installed capacity and energy supply from photovoltaic installations in Germany

12,0

00

6,5

78

4,4

20

3,0

75

2,2

20

1,2

82

556

31316276

644232261611863210

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

[MW

p ]

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

[GW

h]

Electricity supply [GWh]

installed capacity [MWp]

Source: BMU-KI III 1 according to Working Group on Renewable Energy Sources-Statistics (AGEE-Stat);

1 GWh = 1 Mill. kWh; 1 MW = 1 Mill. Watt; image: BMU / Bernd Mller; as at: March 2011; all figures provisional

17,320 MWp

(1990 1GWh2010 12,000GWh)

vs. ( / )

2030 0, 8300TOE

2030 25.4%( 2020 35%), .10.7%

( )

2006*

2010

2020

2030

Germany 42.5 33.4 8.6 0

Korea 37.2 36.9 63.6 83.4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

millionTOE

Germany

Korea

4.6%6.7%

9.5%

16.2%

25.4%

1.9% 2.0% 2.6%

5.8%

10.7%

2006* 2007 2010 2020 2030

Germany Korea

: : (2008), Leitstudie 2008( ), (2008): 1 ( : (2009), 2020 ) - : (2009)

4.21 4.00

3.52

3.08

4.835.11

5.87 6.18

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

2006 2010 2020 2030

TOE Germany

Korea

1990

1995

2000

2005

2020

Germany Lead

Scenario994 883 844 839 639

Korea Recent Trend

298.1 453.2 531 594.4

Korea Scenario 1

594.4 642

Korea Scenario 2

594.4 590

Korea Scenario 3

594.4 569

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Million Ton CO2

vs. ( / )

potential

O 1/4

:

: ( )

O : 2000 30%

O 1/4

1/3 ( )

O 15%

* : 1/3

((2020)2020)

(unit: MTOE)(unit: MTOE)

Electricity Savings Industrial Transportation Residential Commercial

4.370.131.014.56

ElectricityElectricity SavingsSavings TotalTotal 10.07

Sector Energy Savings byEfficiency Improvement

Primary Energy Savingsin Target Technologies 29.22

Note: * Primary energy savings are obtained by multiplying end-use electricity savings by a factor of 2.902, which is derived from

MOCIE/KEEI, 1999.

Total Primary Total Primary Energy Savings 33.60

(2020)(2020)

CO2

95.4 MTOE (28.7% )58.9 MTC (28.8% )

18

32.1 MTOE (128.3 TWh)

33.6 MTOE (149.5 TWh)

Note: * The BAU forecast is provided in MOCIE/KEEIs Third-Year Study of Planning National Actions for the UnitedNations Framework Convention on Climate Change (December 1999).

!!!!!!

NuclearNuclear Moratorium !!!Moratorium !!!

!!!!!!

IndustrialIndustrial

CommercialCommercial

TransportationTransportation

ResidentialResidential

5050

100100

150150

200200

250250

300300

350350

0019971997 20102010 1997199720202020 20102010 20202020

IndustrialIndustrial

CommercialCommercial

TransportationTransportation

ResidentialResidential

Savings = 86.4 MTOESavings = 86.4 MTOE

potential

18 :

: 54 5/ (5 )MTOE : 50/

, , (2020)(2020)

(Unit: MTOE/MTC)(Unit: MTOE/MTC)

ScenariosScenarios

COCO22

COCO22

332.2 204.4

95.495.4

9.7 2.9

58.958.9

7.93.95.7

224.2224.2

108.0108.0(32.5%(32.5%)) 128.0128.0

76.476.4(37.4%(37.4%))

: 20%

!!!

RE

(MW) (MW) ($1996/kW)

(MW)

Wind Power

Photovoltaic

Passive House

!

Zero Energy BuildingZero Energy BuildingU.K, CIS Tower

Japan, Solar Ark

France, Energy plus office

Germany, Klimahaus

4900

:

180, 20% , , ()

()

:

(4km)

( ) : .

( ) : .

Solar Complex : Singen, Germany

Solar Complex : Singen

500,000 L500,000 L

500,000 Kwh500,000 Kwh

100,000 100,000

100,000 100,000

Biomass 20,000 Biomass 20,000

100,000 100,000

100,000 100,000 220,000 220,000

4,000,000 Kwh4,000,000 Kwh 600,000 600,000

kuper Haide

82

()

Smart grid integration

Source: European Technology Platform Smart Grids, EU Commission, DG Research & Innovation

HEMSHome Energy Management System

(520 MW (520 MW (240)(240) 2.172.17) )

,,

(2,160 MW (2,160 MW (240)(240) 99))

(FIT) (FIT) (RPS) (RPS) ? ?

Tidal Power

Tidal Turbine Tidal Barrage

1. 1. 44 Four Major Rivers RestorationFour Major Rivers Restoration

2. 2. Green Energy DevelopmentGreen Energy Development

: 4: 4

: :