WEBINAR | 30.05.2018E-MOBILITY IM REICH DER MITTE
Mit freundlicher Unterstützung von:
WEBINAR AGENDA1. China, der globale E-Mobility Leader2. E-Mobility: Challenges & Trends (Uwe Pichler-Necek, Magna Steyr)3. Services der AUSSENWIRTSCHAFT AUSTRIA 4. Q & A Session
CHINA, DER GLOBALE E-MOBILITY LEADER
3
o 2017: China neun Jahre in Folge vom Volumen her größter Automobilmarkt der Welt Æ ABER: Wachstum deutlich geringer - hat der chinesische Markt seine Kapazität ausgeschöpft?
o Reformen in der Autobranche: Fokus der chin. Regierung auf New Energy-Fahrzeuge (NEV), Steueranreize (keine Anschaffungssteuer für NEV), Zusammenwachsen von Digitalwirtschaft, künstlicher Intelligenz, E-Commerce und E-Mobility Æ China als Vorreiter im Bereich Smart-Fahrzeuge und intelligente Fahrtechnologien
o 2017: über 700.000 NEV in China verkauft
o China: 48% des weltweiten NEV-Marktes Æ größter Markt für dieses Fahrzeugsegment
o Seit 2011 ca. 200 NEV Hersteller in China – Marktvolumen seither vervierzigfacht!
KONKURRENZSITUATION I
4
NEV VERKAUF WELTWEIT NACH MARKEN (JAN BIS OKT 2017)
Rank Marke Stückzahl, Verkauf1 BYD 80.919
2 Tesla 78.139
3 BMW 74.757
4 BAIC EV 66.711
5 Nissan 45.032
6 Toyota 43.376
7 Chevrolet 42.265
8 Zhidou 37.1889 SAIC Roewe 33.286
KONKURRENZSITUATION II
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CHINA: NEV (PKW) VERKAUF NACH HERSTELLERN 2017
Rank Marke Stückzahl, Verkauf Wachstum
1 BYD 113.669 11%2 BAIC EV 104.520 125%
3 SAIC Passenger Vehicles 44.236 123%
4 Zhidou 42.484 109%5 Zotye 36.979 -0,05%6 Chery 34.166 63%7 JMC Jiangling Motors 30.015 92%8 Changan 29.063 487%9 JAC 28.248 54%10 Geely 24.866 45%
WHAT‘S TRENDING IN CHINA?
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Neueinsteiger
Unternehmen, die EV-Produktionslizenzen in China zuletzt erhalten haben:
o NextEV / Nioo BAIC BJEV o Changjiang EV o Qiantu Motor o Chery New Energy o etc.
Neuer Fokus
o Digitalwirtschaft (Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent) Æ neue Geschäftsmodelleo Intelligentes Fahren, Big Data, Autonomes Fahren
CHANCEN FÜR IHR UNTERNEHMEN
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o Weiterhin großes Potential für Unternehmen aus der klassischen Kfz-Zulieferbranche: Bedarf an hochwertigen Kfz-Teilen (Kunststoffteile, Elektronik, Sensorik, Metallteile etc.)
o „Made in China 2025“ Æ moderne Automationslösungen zur Produktivitätssteigerung in der Autobranche
o Lösungen von österreichischen Technologieunternehmen bzw. F&E:1. Know-how in den Bereichen Leichtgewichtforschung, Powertrain
Optimierung, Fahrzeug Engineering und Design, Automatisierung2. Unternehmen der Informations- und Kommunikationstechnologie
E-Mobility:Challenges & TrendsUwe Pichler-Necek, Dr. techn.
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Webinar, May 30th 2018
With contributions by Martin Rodler and Johannes Linderl
Uwe Pichler-Necek
• HTL Maschinenbau Wels• Uni Linz Mechatronik (Dr.techn.)• Since 2005 @ Magna• Since 2012 based in Shanghai, China• Current position: Technical Director,
leading Magna Steyr Engineering team in China (Shanghai, Wuhan, Shenyang)
• Current projects mainly focusing on electromobility
6/4/2018 2
Brief facts Shanghai
Area 6,340 km2
Population 24.18 Million
Time Zone China Standard Time (UTC+8)
Language Mandarin, Shanghai Dialect
Disclosure or duplication without consent is prohibited
Magna facts
6/4/2018 Disclosure or duplication without consent is prohibited 3
Organizational Structure
VEHICLE ENGINEERING & MANUFACTURING
Karl StrackePresident
COMPLETE VEHICLES
Mike BissonPresident
SEATINGEXTERIORS
Grahame BurrowPresident
BODY & CHASSIS
John FarrellPresident
BODY EXTERIORS & STRUCTURES SEATING SYSTEMS POWER & VISION
ELECTRONICS
Kelei ShenPresident
POWERTRAIN
Swamy KotagiriPresident
MECHATRONICS,MIRRORS, LIGHTING
John O’HaraPresident
Tom Skudutis Swamy Kotagiri
Don Walker Chief Executive Officer
Tom Skudutis Chief Operating Officer
Jim Tobin Chief Marketing Officer, President Magna Asia
Swamy Kotagiri Chief Technology Officer
Guenther Apfalter President Magna Europe
Mike Sinnaeve VP Operational Improvement & Quality
Chief Financial OfficerVince Galifi
Mark Dong President Magna China
March 2018
Guenther Apfalter
Global Presence
Q4 2017 5
38.9 Billion USD
2017 SALES
168,000EMPLOYEES
335 global sites
MANUFACTURING MARKET POSITION
#1North America
#3 Globally
Magna Steyr LocationsWorldwide Presence / Worldwide Network
Disclosure or duplication without consent is prohibited 6
NORTH AMERICA
1 Engineering / ProductDevelopment / Sales
Location Sunnyvale, CA
EUROPE
9 Manufacturing/ Assembly
12 Engineering / ProductDevelopment / Sales
Locations
BöblingenCoventryEtupesGrazGrevenbroichHambachHeilbronnIngolstadtMühlhausenMunichNeumarktParis
RoyeSailaufSchwäbischGmündSinabelkirchenSindelfingenTurinWeizWolfsburg
Maribor-Hoče(SOP 2019)
ASIA
2 Manufacturing/ Assembly
7 Engineering / ProductDevelopment / Sales
Locations
ChangchunPuneSeoulShanghaiShenyangShin-YokohamaWuhan
Headquarters: Graz~13,500 Employees 31 Locations
Q1 2018
6/4/2018
History
Disclosure or duplication without consent is prohibited
1914PUCHWERKE AG
1934 20011998STEYR-DAIMLER-PUCHFAHRZEUGTECHNIKA COMPANY OF MAGNA
1864J. & F.Werndl & Comp. STEYR
1899Österr. DAIMLERMotorenges.Wr. Neustadt
1899J. PUCH Erste SteiermärkischeFahrrad-Fabriks AG Graz
1928AUSTRO DAIMLER-PUCHWERKE AG
1926STEYR-WERKE AG
1957TORONTO CANADA
STEYR-DAIMLER-PUCH AG
ERHARD & SÖHNE1844
2005
19951990
1998
20142007 2010 2011 2016
76/4/2018
Magna Steyr – Range of Services
Flexible and global solutions customized for the OEM
Engineering Complete VehicleManufacturing Fuel Systems
From systems and modules to complete vehicle engineering World Class flexible solutions from
niche to volume production
Energy storage systems made of steel, plastic and aluminum
Disclosure or duplication without consent is prohibited 86/4/2018
3.3 Million Automobiles made in Graz
6/4/2018 Disclosure or duplication without consent is prohibited 9
BMW X3 2003 – 2010
JeepGrand Cherokee
ZG/WG/WJ1994 – 2004
Mercedes-BenzE-Class
1996 – 2002
Mercedes-BenzM-Class
1999 – 2002
Chrysler Voyager
2002 – 2007
Mercedes-Benz E-Class
2003 – 2006
Saab 93 Cabrio
2003 – 2009
Jeep Grand Cherokee WH
2005 – 2010
Chrysler 300 C
2005 – 2010
in Production
Mercedes-Benz G-Class
since 1979
AudiV8L
1990 – 1994
VW Transporter T3 4x4
1984 – 1992
VWGolf Country1990 – 1991
Voiturette1906
Alpenwagen1919
Puch500 / 650 / 700c / 126
1957 – 1975
Haflinger 1959 – 1974
Pinzgauer1971 – 2000
Jaguar I-PACE
from 2018
Peugeot RCZ
2010 – 2015
Jeep Commander2006 – 2010
Aston Martin Rapide
2010 – 2012
Mercedes-BenzSLS Painted
Aluminum Body2009 – 2014
MINI Countryman2010 – 2016
MINI Paceman
2012 – 2016
BMW 5 Series
since 2017
Jaguar E-PACE
since 2017
in Production in Production
Magna Steyr Engineering Center China
6/4/2018 Magna Steyr EC China Disclosure or duplication without consent is prohibited 10
• 3 Locations: Shanghai, Wuhan, Shenyang• Headcount: ~320• Capabilities:
– Vehicle Engineering with focus on EV– Manufacturing Engineering– Component Testing– Cubing
E-Mobility: Challenges & Trends
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Global trends
“Car ofthe Future”
Automotive IndustryTrends 2025+
Mega Trends2030
Electrification
Autonomous Driving
New Mobility
Connectivity
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“Car Of The Future” as part of the global market
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COMBUSTION ENGINE
ELECTRIFIED
PERSONAL OWNED
SHARED
HUMAN DRIVEN
AUTOMATED DRIVEN
Est. market share in 2030
~20%
6/4/2018 Disclosure or duplication without consent is prohibited
6/4/2018 Disclosure or duplication without consent is prohibited 14
“Car Of The Future”
Electrification Autonomous Driving New MobilityConnectivity
End Consumers Legislation
What is driving Electrification?
Global Challenges for different Regions
• Improved vehicle performance• Zero emission driving• Incentives and operating cost• Improved fuel / energy economy
• Regional fleet emission• Zero emission standards (NEV, ZEV)• Further tail pipe emission• Net upstream emission• Penalties
Driv
ers
• Purchase price• Energy consumption by real driving conditions• Availability of charging infrastructure• Driving range
• Invest in infrastructure• Limited subsidies for incentives • Reduced income for fuel taxes• Inconsistent government strategies
Res
trai
nts
Until 2025 the legislation is mainly driving the Electrification of Powertrain – especially in China6/4/2018 Disclosure or duplication without consent is prohibited 15
-37%
119
75
-38%
149
93
-35%
211
137
Engine/Transmission Improvement Aerodynamic/Roll. Resistance Vehicle Weight Reduction Powertrain Electrification
-38%
151
93
2016 EST.
**estimated (published range 68-75)*US Standards converted to g/km and normalized to NEDC ***Converted from proposed CAFC 4 l/100 km to g CO2/km
211 g/km
CO2 Emission Legislation Driving Change Efficiency & Sustainability
16
2025 Target 107 g/km*
Est. Combined Fleet Avg. 180 g/km*
151 g/kmUS CO2
USA EU CHINA
2016 EST. 119 g/km
2025 Target 75 g/km**
EU CO2
2016 EST. 149 g/km
2025 Target 93 g/km***
CHINA CO2
6/4/2018 Disclosure or duplication without consent is prohibited
China NEV Push: Key driver is policy
6/4/2018 Disclosure or duplication without consent is prohibited 17
NEV = New Energy Vehicle (=BEV, PHEV, FCV)China specific term
China NEV Push:New NEV manufacturers
6/4/2018 Disclosure or duplication without consent is prohibited 18
Qinghai
Hainan
Sichuan
Tianjin
Guangdong
Fujian
Jiangsu
Shandong
Liaoning
Jilin
Shan’xi Henan
Hubei
Hunan
Yunnan
Heilongjiang
Inner Mongolia
Hebei Shanxi
Ningxia
Gansu
Tibet
Xinjiang
Anhui
Zhejiang
Jiangxi
Guizhou
Guangxi
Beijing
Wangxiang, Hangzhou
Min’An, HuaiAn
Car & Home, Changzhou
LeEco, Huzhou
Zhidou, Ningbo, Lanzhou
Changjiang, Hangzhou
Qiantu(CH-Auto), Suzhou
BJEV, Beijing, Qingdao, Changzhou
Chery NEV, Wuhu
Next EV Wuhan
Jinkang Chongqing
Received manufacturing license already
JMC NEV, Nanchang
FMC Nanjing
NEVS/ICONIQ, Tianjin
YUDO NEV, Putian
Zhiche, Tongling
WM, Wenzhou
Beiqi Jiaqing Chongqing
Xiaopeng zhaoqing
Suda Sanmenxia
Green wheel, Foshan
Hozon Auto, Huzhou
Guoneng NEV, Ganzhou
JAC-VW Hefei
Global EV & xHEV market in 2017
6/4/2018 Disclosure or duplication without consent is prohibited 19
Global xEV market: Actuals & forecast
6/4/2018 Disclosure or duplication without consent is prohibited 20
Source: IHS Automotive Alt. Propulsion Forecast 09/2017
60
70
100
90
120
110
80
50
40
30
20
10
0
2016
2015
2014
2029
2028
2027
2026
2019
2018
2017
2013
2012
2011
2010
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
Mill
ion
50
40
30
20
10
0
2029
2028
2027
2026
2013
2012
2011
2010
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
xEV ICE Battery electric
Full HybridPlug-In Hybrid
Mild Hybrid
Fuel Cell
Mill
ion
Fuel Cell Battery ElectricPlug In Hybrid
Full HybridMild Hybrid
• Synthetic fuels (E-fuels) from renewable Energy
• Mild Hybrid (12 – 48 V) will be “standard” feature
• Additional xEV comfort functions: e.g. wireless charging
• Infrastructure for EV charging and hydrogen refueling
Technology forecast
>50 mio.xEV
Overview Electrified Powertrain
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ICE
EM
BATT
ICE
EM
BATT
FUELCELL
Propulsion Power
Electricityto the
drivetrain
Micro
ICE
EM
BATT
ICE
EM
BATT
EM
BATT
EM
BATT
EM
BATT
Mild Full PHEV REEV EV FCEV
REX
EnergyInput
VCU
Vehicle CAN Bus (High Speed)
EV System CAN Bus (High Speed)
ABS/ESPMMIClimate ControlBody ControlShift Lever
BMU ACDC DCAC DCDC HV-PTC HV-Compressor DC-Link
BEV: Main systems & components
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E–Motor, Inverter, Gearbox
Energy Storage System (HV battery)VCU
DC/DC
Climate Compressor
Wireless Charging Pad
HVDU
PWT Communication
System & Diagnostics
HV-Wiring
AC/DC-Charge Charger (AC/DC)HV-PTC
Challenge HV battery
• Major challenges: Low energy density of Li-Ion batteries (~0.2 kWh/kg in 2020) in comparison to gasoline (12.8 kWh/kg) and battery priceÆ 64kg battery has same energy content as 1kg gasolineÆ HV battery is major contributor to vehicle weight, required package space as well as to vehicle material cost
• New vehicle architectures allow bigger battery sizes with less complex shapes
6/4/2018 Disclosure or duplication without consent is prohibited 23
Modified ICE platformVW e-Golf (24kWh battery)
New EV platformTesla Model S (90kWh battery)
New EV platformChevrolet Bolt
Challenge HV battery:HV battery pack price outlook (EU price base)
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Technical Challenges of HV integration
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Thermal ManagementBattery ePWT
Vehicle
Safety Concept for Complete
Vehicle Geometric Integration Body Requirements
Diagnosis
Service & Maintenance
CostLifetime
Durability Availability
Operation Strategy
HV ElectricsRecyclingRe-usage
EMC
Energy consumption: x kWh/100km
Advantage for fleetconsumption
Weight / Package
Range
Technology of components / systems
Costs
Functionality optimization- Charging- Coasting- Regenerative braking- Aircondition- Cooling- Driving
Balancing of goals in BEVs
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Shift of complexity & value add in BEVs
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~400 parts~400 parts
ICE EV
ICE EV
Complexity
Value addedBody Body
E-motor~ 1.400 parts ~200 parts
ICE EV
ICE EV
Complexity
Value addedICE Engine
~1000 parts ~180 parts
ICE EV
ICE EV
Complexity
Value addedTransmission
(8-speed automatic)Transmission
(1 or 2-step gear unit)
~900 parts~50 parts
ICE EV
ICE EV
Complexity
Value addedFuel tank HV Battery
~3300 parts~3000 parts
ICE EV
ICE EV
Complexity
Value added
Electric /Electronic
Electric /Electronic + High Voltage
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Car Of The Future
Electrification Autonomous Driving New MobilityConnectivity
Autonomous Driving Roadmap Active & Passive Safety
29ERTRAC / European Road Transport Research Advisory Council6/4/2018 Disclosure or duplication without consent is prohibited
The Vision Zero: Born From Today’s Situation
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Vision of zero accidents is a major
driver for development of AD & ADAS technologies
Global Status Report on Road Safety 2015 (WHO)
6/4/2018 Disclosure or duplication without consent is prohibited
Safety: What is needed to achieve zero fatalities?
6/4/2018 Disclosure or duplication without consent is prohibited 31
Safety must be seen from a holistic viewpoint to address Vision Zero.
Active Safety Passive Safety
e.g. ensure HV safety in BEVs
6/4/2018 Disclosure or duplication without consent is prohibited 32Source: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/279765559
Key sensor technologies for AD / ADAS
New Electrics/Electronics Architectures
6/4/2018 Disclosure or duplication without consent is prohibited 33
ADAS functions and autonomous driving will require a transformation in thearchitecture of automobile control system. Higher computing power, increasedconnectivity and increased levels of safety and security are required.
6/4/2018 Disclosure or duplication without consent is prohibited 34
Car Of The Future
Electrification Autonomous Driving New MobilityConnectivity
6/4/2018 35
Connectivity
Connectivity: Car2X
6/4/2018 Disclosure or duplication without consent is prohibited 36
Car2X technologies enable vehicles to automatically pass along messages regardingroad conditions, traffic flow, and obstacles before these appear in the driver's visualrange. Vehicles receive signals from intelligent road signs.
Source: https://www.mobility.siemens.com/mobility/global/SiteCollectionDocuments/en/road-solutions/urban/trends/siemens-vehicle-to-x-communication-technology-infographic.pdf;https://www.researchgate.net/publication/279765559
6/4/2018 37
Connectivity ecosystem: Major players
Source: Red Chalk Group; http://www.redchalk.com/industry/automotive/connected-cars-what-can-i-do-while-i-wait-for-my-self-driving-car-to-arrive-full/
All major Chinese technology and
internet companies are
already involved in activities in automotive space, e.g. Alibaba‘s
cooperation with SAIC
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Car Of The Future
Electrification Autonomous Driving New MobilityConnectivity
Transformation of Transportation
Disclosure or duplication without consent is prohibited
MEGATRENDS TRANSPORTATION
Today’s Business ModelsPersonally owned and driven vehicles
~ $1.00/mile
UtilizationMiles Driven
MOBILITY
New Business ModelsSmart, cleaner and safer mobility
~ $0.20/mile
39Source: Morgan Stanley, “Shared Economy”6/4/2018
Disclosure or duplication without consent is prohibited
New Mobility Ecosystem
Fundamentally a new ecosystem:• New mobility is more than just the vehicle
• Different modes of transport have to be fused into an integrated mobility solution
• Automation creates new businessmodels
• Increased demand for connectivity and reliability
• Fewer auto related accidents and fatalities
• Data monetization opportunities
• China will be very likely leading market to implement such a new mobility ecosystem
406/4/2018
Car Sharing Car Hailing Mobility Apps
MappingElectrification ConnectivityAutonomy
Private Use
EMERGING ECOSYSTEM
Thank you for your attention!
Disclosure or duplication without consent is prohibited 416/4/2018
6/4/2018 Disclosure or duplication without consent is prohibited 42
Über Ihre Fragen freuen wir uns!
Uwe Pichler-NecekMagna Steyr Automotive Technology (Shanghai) Ltd.T +86 21 6165 1468E [email protected] magnasteyr.com
VERANSTALTUNGEN - AUTOMOTIVE
9
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GRUPPENAUSSTELLUNG AUTOMOTIVE MEETINGS QUERÉTARO 201919. – 21.02.2019 | Querétaro | Mexico
GRUPPENAUSSTELLUNG 2019 – AUTO SHANGHAI21. – 28.04.2019 | Shanghai | China
ALLE UNSERE AUTOMOTIVE-VERANSTALTUNGEN FINDEN SIE AUCH AUF: www.wko.at/service/aussenwirtschaft/automotive-veranstaltungen-zur-branche.html
Über Ihre Fragen freuen wir uns!
Mag. Eric SavoyeBranchenmanager Industry / Machinery / MaterialsAutomotiveT +43 5 90 900 3727E [email protected] wko.at/aussenwirtschaft
Lisa Kronreif, MSc.Die österr. Wirtschaftsdelegierte Stv.AußenwirtschaftsCenter Shanghai
Kevin HuSenior Marketing Officer, AutomotiveAußenwirtschaftsCenter ShanghaiT +86 (21) 6289 7123E [email protected] wko.at/aussenwirtschaft/cn
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