Tokyo Past, Now and Future:Transportation and Development~Aging, Structural Change, Sustainability~
2016/11/18
Mamoru Taniguchi
Professor, University of Tsukuba
1
Mamoru Taniguchi, Dr. Eng.
Chair of Department of Policy and Planning Sciences
International Federation for Housing and Planning (Previous Council Member)
In Japan, Member of
National Land Council
Council for Transport Policy
National Council for Infrastructure
Central Environment Council
2
Population density of Tokyo metropolitan area (1970)
0- 10001000- 20002000- 30003000- 40004000-
Unit:People/km2
3
Source: Mohri, Morio: Tokyo Metropolitan Area: Change for 50 years and Future Vision~Change and Future of Metroplis according to the Date~.(2014)
4Population density of Tokyo metropolitan area (2010)
Source: Mohri, Morio: Tokyo Metropolitan Area: Change for 50 years and Future Vision~Change and Future of Metroplis according to the Date~.(2014)
0- 10001000- 20002000- 30003000- 40004000-
Unit:People/km2
5
首都圏における市街地の拡大
1937年 1947年 1957年1880年 1910年 1932年
1976年 2006年出典:新谷洋二,都市交通計画,技法堂出版,1993 (1880年から1957年の図)
国土数値情報ダウンロードサービスhttp://nlftp.mlit.go.jp/ksj/index.html より作成(1976年から2006年の図)
市街地
7Urban Area :Sprawl Tokyo suburb (1956)
8Urban Area: Sprawl
Tokyo suburb (1991)
9
Late development areas after 1985, that locate far from
train stations cause serious problems in near future.
How to explain citizens? → ‘Inferno Cartton’
典型的郊外住宅地
• 六地蔵
• 那古の
10
11Population estimation of Tokyo metropolitan area
TMA/Japan
Tokyo/TMA
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Population[Million]
Chiba
Saitama
Kanagawa
Tokyo
TMA/Japan
Tokyo/TMA
TMA/Japan[%]Tokyo/TMA[%]
Source: Mohri, Morio (2014) and National Institute of Population and Social Security Research
Population Desity 2010
Increase of Population
Desity 2000~2010
Railway network of Tokyo metropolitan area (1960)
14
Source: Mohri, Morio: Tokyo Metropolitan Area: Change for 50 years and Future Vision~Change and Future of Metroplis according to the Date~.(2014)
15Railway network of Tokyo metropolitan area (2010)
Source: Mohri, Morio: Tokyo Metropolitan Area: Change for 50 years and Future Vision~Change and Future of Metroplis according to the Date~.(2014)
City Name TsukubaTozuka Ward(Yokohama)
Tama Mishima
Population1960 52,568 113,514 9,746 64,9712010 214,590 274,324 147,648 111,921Ratio 4.11 2.42 15.15 1.72
Main Station1960 Tsukuba Sta. Tozuka Sta. Seiseki Sakuragaoka Sta. Mishima Sta.2010 Tsukuba Sta. Tozuka Sta. Keio Tama Center Sta. Mishima Sta.
Route
1960
1. Tsukuba~Tsuchiura(Tsukuba Line)
2. Tsuchiura ~ Ueno(Joban Line)
3. Ueno ~ Tokyo(Yamanote Line/Kehin Tohoku Line)
Tozuka ~ Tokyo(Yokosuka Line)
1.Seiseki Sakuragaoka~ Shinjuku
2. Shinjuku ~ Tokyo(Chuo Line)
Mishima ~ Tokyo
(Tokaido Line)
2010
1. Tsukuba~Akihabara(Tsukuba Express)
2. Akihabara ~ Tokyo(Yamanote Line/Kehin Tohoku Line)
Tozuka ~ Tokyo(Tokaido Line/Yokosuka Line/
Soubu Line)
1. Keio Tama Center~ Shinjuku
(Keio Sagamihara Line)2. Shinjuku ~ Tokyo
(Chuo Line)
Mishima~Tokyo(TokaidoShinkansen)
Required Time to Tokyo Sta.
(min)
1960 168 44 75 1112010 62 41 58 55Ratio 0.37 0.93 0.77 0.50
Frequency of Service
(/3h)
1960 4 14 9 62010 17 57 20 12Ratio 4.25 4.07 2.22 2.00
Improvement of railway services 16Source: Mohri et al.(2014)
48
30
12
12
3
22
15
10
21
14
32
23
15
30
39
21
12
23
40
33
20
11
6
4
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Tokyo
Seoul
GreaterLondon
New York
Beijing
Train Bus Bicycle Walk Car Others[%]
Mode of transportation in world cities 17
Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism(2013)
Transportation share of trips in Tokyo metropolitan area
24,8
22,8
25,1
25,5
29,7
17,0
24,4
27,5
32,9
28,0
5,7
12,9
14,8
14,6
14,1
43,1
33,9
27,0
22,5
21,5
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
1968
1978
1988
1998
2008
Train Bus Car Motorcycle Bicycle Walk Others
(%)
18
Source: Mohri, Morio: Tokyo Metropolitan Area: Change for 50 years and Future Vision~Change and Future of Metroplis according to the Date~.(2014)
19
Tokyo.Met. Nagoya.Met. Osaka.Met.
Change of Commuting Minutes (Only Season Thickets Passengers)
http://www2.ttcn.ne.jp/honkawa/2340.html
行動群分析への展開Differet Groups (Transportation Modes and Lifestyle)
①非車依存ホワイトカラー
②非車依存ブルーカラー
④非車依存農林漁業
⑤非車依存非就業者
⑥非車依存高齢者
⑦車依存就業者公共交通併用
⑧車完全依存就業者
⑨車依存女性就業者
⑩車依存非就業者
⑪生徒・児童・ 園児
③非車依存学生
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
非車依存一般タイプ
非車依存児童タイプ
非車依存高齢者タイプ
車依存一般タイプ
車依存公共交通タイプ
全体に占める割合(%
)
昭和62年
平成4年
平成11年
平成17年
行動群構成比の経年変化(Total Japan)
⑧⑨⑩
①~⑤
⑥
From 1987to 2005
Transportation mode of trips to Tokyo city area
63,9
69,4
72,5
73,9
78,8
9,7
11,0
10,1
8,7
4,3
3,7
5,2
6,4
7,7
7,4
13,8
9,6
6,0
5,8
5,2
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
1968
1978
1988
1998
2008
Train Bus/Tram Car Motorcycle Bicycle Walk Others
(%)
22
Source: Mohri, Morio: Tokyo Metropolitan Area: Change for 50 years and Future Vision~Change and Future of Metroplis according to the Date~.(2014)
18,7
19,1
16,6
14,5
14,9
8,8
8,7
8,4
6,7
5,8
9,5
11,4
15,5
25,0
29,6
7,8
10,3
13,2
14,5
15,3
53,9
48,5
44,3
37,6
28,0 4,8
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
1968
1978
1988
1998
2008
Train Bus/Tram Car Motorcycle Bicycle Walk Others
(%)
Transportation mode of elderly people(Over 65 years old)
23
Source: Mohri, Morio: Tokyo Metropolitan Area: Change for 50 years and Future Vision~Change and Future of Metroplis according to the Date~.(2014)
Population estimation of Tokyo metropolitan area (Over 65 years old)
4.139 4.498 3.934 5.170
3.179
4.827
5.959 6.025
7.319
9.326 9.893
11.195
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
2010 2020 2030 2040
Over 75 65-74Over 75 65-74
Elderly population [/Thousand]
Elderly Population Ratio [%]
24
Source: Mohri, Morio: Tokyo Metropolitan Area: Change for 50 years and Future Vision~Change and Future of Metroplis according to the Date~.(2014)
25
Decrease of Trip Numbers
AGE
TRIP NUMBERS/Person Day
TOKY MET.
← Young Old →
Purpose of Network-based Compact City
Difficulty in maintaining medical, welfare, and commercial service
Shrink of the public transportation network and deterioration of the quality of the service
■ Regional Economic Decline
■ Deterioration of functions supporting urban lives
Regional industrial stagnation Increase of vacant lands and stores, decline of downtown
Increasing social security costs Addressing the aging infrastructure
■ Strict Governments’ Finances
Challenges of Urban Area Effects of Compacness
Maintenance and improvement of urban livability Maintaining community services Improving accessibility to local services Social participation by the elderly
Revitalization of regional economy
More productive in service industries, such as public transport, medical care, welfare and commerce.
Reduction of administrative cost Reducing the maintenance cost of for
infrastructureMore efficient in administrative serviceMaintaining land value and the revenue of
property tax Controlling social security cost through health
enhancement
Less burden on global environment
Compact CityAgglomeration of population by
guiding and concentrating community amenities and residence
Restructuring of transportation network coordinating with community development
+Network
More efficient use of energy Reducing CO2 emission
Polycentric Network-based Compact City with city center and local cores linked by
user-friendly public transport
Making urban Environment to safe and comfortable for the elderly and households with children
Maintaining and improving business environment
Financially sustainable urban management
Realization of urban structure with low carbon emission
○ Depopulation and Aging○ Urban Sprawl
Current urban trend
26
Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure,
Transport and Tourism
【機密性2】
◆ Lenient control of residential developments outside the districtsPrior notification of a large residential development outside the
district, followed by consultation with local municipalities.
Working Toward “Network-based Compact City”
Based on the Act on Special Measures concerning Urban Reconstruction and Act on Revitalization and Rehabilitation of Local PublicTransportation Systems amended in 2014, the local municipalities are expected to guide houses and community amenities into key areas andto develop a sustainable local public transportation network which connects these areas, while taking the entire city structure into account.
In order to encourage the municipalities to guide community amenities into designated districts, the Japanese Government providesincentives such as budgetary support for creating and implementing such plans.
Siting Optimization Plan (created by cities)【Amended Act on Special Measures concerning Urban Reconstruction】
(Enacted Aug 1 2014)
◆ Lenient control of community amenity siting outside the districts Prior notification of community amenity development outside
the districts, followed by consultation with local municipalities.
◆ Improving living conditions within districtsEnable housing developers to make proposals on urban planning and landscape planning
Residential advancement districtEstablish areas that attract residents and maintain population density
Community amenity advancement districtIdentify the areas where certain amenities are encouraged to be sited
◆Promote establishment of urban functions (such as welfare, healthcare, commerce.)
Provide tax and financial incentives to service-attracting facilities Relax floor area ratio requirements, etc. for rebuilding welfare
and healthcare-related facilities Effective use of public real estate and
unused/underused land◆Walkable city Support development of pedestrian walkways
Local public transportation networking plan【Amended Act on Revitalization and Rehabilitation of Local Public Transportation Systems】
(Enacted Nov. 20 2014)
Developed by local government lead Integrated with city development Takes the whole city structure into account to
redevelop public transportation networks for the entire region
Approval by MLIT (Minister)
Improve related laws and establish new incentives, such as budgetary support.
Regional public transportionreorganization plan(created by local government, with consent from the operaters,etc.)
Reinforce public transportation services
Improve transit hubs
ZGuide and concentrate community amenities
to key areas
Walkable/bike-friendly development
Circular transportation system
Feeder lines such as community buses
Demand-responsive bus (taxi)
Siting Optimization Plan
Local public ranpsortation networking plan
integration
Positive cycle
Polycentric network-based Compact City
27
Encourage more housing near public transportation
Source: Ministry of Land,
Infrastructure,
Transport and Tourism
Siting Optimization Plan Area=Urban Planning Area
Siting Optimization Plan (figure)
28
Urbanization promotion area
Residential advancement district
Community amenities advancement district
Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure,
Transport and Tourism
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