Strategic Workshop
National Network for Innovative Shipbuilding/Marine Research and Training Vancouver,BC6July2016
Survey of Marine/Offshore Trends
RogerBasu&AssociatesInc.
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Overview
� SketchofRelevantGlobalTrends§ Shipping
§ Energy
� What’sHappeningNow
� WhichTechnologyAreas§ Themes
§ Somespecifictechnologies
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GlobalTrends
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GlobalTrends-Growthofseabornetrade
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Growthinshippingexceededeconomicgrowth-globalizaSon
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GlobalTrends-Shippingroutes
5 Source:NicholasRapp,vox.comRogerBasu&AssociatesInc.
NoteportacSvityintheEast–Shanghai,Singapore,Guangzhou…
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GlobalTrends-Energyusage
� Oil,asa%ageofenergyused,hasdecreasedoverseveraldecades
� Gasusesteadilyincreasing
� Renewables§ LowstarSngpoint
§ Rapidlyincreasing
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Source:BPEnergyOutlook2016
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What’sHappeningNow-Bulkcarrierrates
� Shippingisaboomandbustindustry
� AnindirectmeasureoftheshippingindustryistheBalScDryIndex
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Boominworldtrade
2008financialcrisis
Recordlowfreightrates
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What’sHappeningNow-WorldShipbuilding
� Commercialshipbuilding-severecontracSon§ Bulkcarriers,asashiptype,havesufferedmostfromtheeconomicdownturn
§ Containercarriersexperiencedamini-boomunSllastyear
§ Tankersalsosawamodestincreasebutnotthisyyear
§ Overallworldshipbuildinghascontracted
� Overcapacityintheworld’sshipyards
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Source:RichardScoK,quotedbunkerist.com
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What’sHappeningNow-Glutofships
� Currently“bust”phaseoftheshipbuilding
� Clientscancellingordersordelayingdelivery
� Lowworldgrowthmeansitwilltakeyearstoregainstability
� InthemeanSmeshipyardssuffer
§ Especiallythegiants
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Source:ClarksonResearch,20May2016
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What’sHappeningNow-Somegoodnews
� Cruiseshipordersarehealthy§ DominatedbyEuropeanyards
§ Chineseyardsshowinginterest
� Shipshavegotbigger§ Cost($/berth)goesdownwithsize
� Ordersforferriesarealsoingoodshape
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Source:ClarksonResearch,20May2016
Year of Delivery
Number of Ships
2016 10
2017 11
2018 17
2019 16
2020 8
2021 9
Source:www.amem
.at
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What’sHappeningNow-Orderbookforoffshorestructuresalsosuffering
� A
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FloaSngproducSonunitsonly
Source:EnergyM
ariPmeAssociates
PteLtdwebsite
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What’sHappeningNow-RenewableEnergy
12 RogerBasu&AssociatesInc.Source:ClarksonResearch,1Dec2015
� Windturbines-greaterinterestinsiteswelloffshore
� Consequence§ Deeperwaters
§ FloaSngratherthatfixedinstallaSons
� Interestinmarinerenewablesgrowing
fixed
flo
a?ng
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WhichTechnologyAreas?
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What’sDrivingInnovaSon
� Drivetoreducecostsacutenow:§ Loweconomicgrowth
− Uncertainty
− Demographicstrends
§ Lowoilprices
§ Excessshipandoffshorebuildingcapacity
� InnovaSonalsodrivenby§ Change–conflict,poliScs,climatechange….
§ Regulatorychanges− Environmental
− Safety
§ Lackofqualifiedpersonnel− IncreasingrelianceonautomaSon
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What’sDrivingInnovaSon
� Technologieslikelytobeimplemented–basedonsurveyofshipownersGreenshipping/energyefficiency
Marineengg./Propulsion
Navarch/engineering
OperaSonal
15 RogerBasu&AssociatesInc. Source:DNVReportShipping2020,2012
retrofitnewbuild
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TechnologyThemes
� SeveralorganizaSonsaiempttopredicttechnologyneedsforthefuture:§ VariousinternaSonalandnaSonalagencies
§ ClassificaSonsocieSes
� Ageneralconsensus(?)hasemergedinsomeareas
� Selectedtechnologieshighlightedinfollowingslides
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TechnologyThemes
� Somekeythemes:§ Advancedmaterials
§ InformaSontechnologyandcommunicaSons
§ AutomaSon&roboScs
§ Sustainableshipping
§ Safety
� Somespecificaspects§ EngineeringsimulaSon
§ Propulsion
§ Assetintegritymanagement
§ Aquaculture
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§ Navaltechnology
§ Seabedmining
§ FloaSnginfrastructure
§ MarinehabitaSon
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AdvancedMaterials
� Steelisbyfarthemostcommonmaterialinships(hull,equipment…)
� Aluminumhullconfinedtosmallerfasterships
� Advancedcompositeshavetechnicaladvantagesovermetalsbutareexpensive
� Butascostscomedown…
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LightweightsteerablethrusterfromRollsRoycemakesextensiveuseofcarbonfibrematerialsSource:RollsRoycewebsite
Norwegianferry–Lightweightcarbon-fibrehull.Hybridpower–diesel/baierySource:“CompositesToday”website
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InformaSonTechnology&CommunicaSons
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10thAnn
ualA
PICybersecurityCo
nference&Expo,201
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� Cyberaiacksareexpectedtogrow
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InformaSonTechnology&CommunicaSons
� IncommonwithotherindustriesbothmarineandoffshoreindustriesrelyincreasinglyonsophisScatedsokwaresystems§ Fewercrew,greaterrelianceoncomputer-basedtechnologiessuchas:
− ECDIS(ElectronicChartDisplayandInformaSonSystem)
− DGPS/GPS
− AIS(AutomatedIdenSficaSonSystem)
− GMDSS(GlobalMariSmeDistressandSafetySystem)
§ Navies–cyberandelectronicwarfare
§ Ports–cyber-security,smuggling
§ OilandgasinstallaSons
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AutomaSon&RoboScs-Unmannedships
� Unmannedshipsarebeingproposedprimarilyfortworeasons:§ Safety
§ Economy
� Sensorsandcomputersystemstoreplacelessreliablehumans
� Hybridsystemsproposed§ Convoys–unmannedshipsledbyconvenSonallymannedship
§ Hybridscheme–shipismannedincoastalregionsandports
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Source:RollsRoyceplc
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AutomaSon&RoboScs-AUVsandUUVs
� UnmannedUnderseaVehiclesimportantforinspecSonandrepairofships&offshoreassets§ Remotelyoperatedunderwatervehicles(ROVs)
§ Autonomousunderwatervehicles(UUVs)
� Challenges§ CommunicaSons
§ Range
22 RogerBasu&AssociatesInc.
Source:Douglas-Westwood;quotedinOECDReportC/WP6(2015)5/FINAL,2015
ImportantforsubseaoperaSons
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AutomaSon&RoboScs-RoboPcs
� SomeacSviSesmightbebeierperformedusingrobots§ InspecSonsandrepairinhazardousareas− Corrosion
− Cracks
§ FirefighSng
� Shipbuilding§ Profileculng
§ Panelwelding
§ Pipework
§ Etc.23 RogerBasu&AssociatesInc.
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SustainableShipping
� ClimatechangeimpetusfornewIMOregulaSons
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Source:EmissionReducPonintheShippingIndustry,July2013,SustainalyPcs
ECA EmissionControlArea EEDI Energy-EfficiencyDesignIndexSEEMP ShipEnergyEfficiencyManagementPlan
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SustainableShipping-Driverforseveraltechnologydevelopments
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� Lightermaterials
� Improvedhullforms
� Moreefficientpropulsionsystems
� Baierytechnologies
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Safety
� Marineandoffshoreindustriesareamongtheriskiest
� TheseindustriesconSnuallyseekwaystoimprovesafetyandreduceaccidents
� HighaccidentratesinmarineandoffshoreoperaSons§ Inherentlyrisky
§ Systemsincreasinglycomplex
� SeveralareasrequireaienSon§ MulSplealarmsonoffshoreinstallaSons
§ CruiseshipsintheArcSc
§ Etc.
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EngineeringSimulaSon
� Rapidincreaseinuseofcomputer-basedsimulaSonforengineeringanalysis§ Structuralfiniteelementanalysiswellestablished
§ ComputaSonalfluidmechanicslessso
� Designmethodologiesandacceptancecriteriaareevolvinglessrapidly
� Someissues:§ ValidaSonofanalysismethodologies
§ Skillsofusers
§ UncertainSesinanalysis
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Source:VikingSystems,Annapolis,USA
Source:hKps://ecfd.nlr.nl/scope/
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Propulsion
� Dieselenginesdominatethemarinemarketbut..
� LNGuseincreasingis§ Loweremissions
§ NeedforLNGbunkeringinfrastructure
� UseofbiofuelsandsyntheScfuelsholdpromise
� HybridsoluSonsairacSveinsomecircumstances§ Diesel/baiery
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Source:FutureShipPoweringOpPons,RoyalAcademyofEngineeringReport,2013
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AssetIntegrityManagement-Agingplacorms
� Theproblem§ NoappeSteforexpensivenewplamorms
§ Interestinextendinglifeoffields
� Challenge§ Establishingstateofasset
− Sensors
− Bigdata:extracSngmeaningfulinformaSon
− IntegraSngmeasurements
§ Cost-effecSveinspecSonandrepairstrategies
§ Assessmentmethodologies–risk-basedmethods
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Source:BentleySystemsInfographiconStructuralIntegrity,2016
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Aquaculture-Offshorefishfarming
� Advantagesoverclose-to--shorefarming§ Exposedtosteadycurrents
§ Reduceddiseases
§ Smallerenvironmentalimpactduetoachangingcolumnofwateraroundthecages
§ Fewerspaceconstraints
§ LowoperaSngcostsbecauseofhighautomaSon(buthigherCAPEX)
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Source:SalMarGroup,Norway
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NavalTechnology
� AjointteamofLloydsRegister,QineSQandtheUniversityofSouthamptonidenSfiedseveraltechnologiesrelevantfornavalplamorms:§ BigdataanalyScs
§ Advancedmaterials
§ Autonomoussystems
§ Advancedmanufacturing
§ Energymanagement
§ Cyberandelectronicwarfare
§ Human-computerinterface
§ HumanaugmentaSontechnologies
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Source:LR/QinePQ/UofSouthampton,GlobalMarineTechnologyTrends2030,2015
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SeabedMining
� Theseabedhasformanyyearsheldpromiseasasourceofenergyandminerals
� Amongthemostpromising:§ Methanehydrates
§ SeafloorMassiveSulphides
§ PolymetallicNodules/ManganeseNodules
§ Cobalt-richCrusts
� Variousschemesformining-ROVsandAUVs,pumps,risers
� Primarychallengeiscost-effecSverecovery
� Severalpilotschemesunderway32 RogerBasu&AssociatesInc.
Source:ScienPficAmerican
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FloaSngEnergyInfrastructure
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� LargefloaSngsystemstosupportpowerstaSons
� Canberelocated
� GraphicshowsRussianconceptforfloaSngnuclearpowerstaSonintheArcSc
� FLNGembodiessimilarelements
Source:RadioCanada23Apr2015;Graphic:Rosatom.ru
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MarineHabitaSon
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� WhileconceptsformarinehabitaSonhaveexistedformanyyearsnolargescaleinstallaSonshavebeenbuilt
� WithpopulaSonpressuresandclimatechange(risingsealevels)mighttheconceptsgobeyondthethinkingphase?
Source:De
zeenm
agazine,13May201
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ConcludingRemarks
� ChallengingSmesformarine&offshoreindustry§ Lowgrowth,lowoilprices
§ UncertainSes
§ Oversupplyinsomesectors
� OpportuniSesforresearchespeciallyifsoluSon-focused§ Reducingcosts
§ Regulatorychanges
§ ImplemenSngnewtechnologies
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