MLB PredictionGroup 25 陳乃群、趙冠琳2011.06.07Intro CS - Project presentation
MLB Major League Baseball
Idea Predict MLB games by own-made
formulas. Analyze separately on pitchers and
batters.
Formula - batters [(AB-SO)×(TB/AB)+BB+SB}×(H/AB)+HR
Inning (局 ) At Bats (AB, 打數 ) StrikeOuts (SO, 三振數 ) Total Bases (TB, 壘打數 ) Base on Balls (BB, 保送數 ) Stolen Base (SB, 盜壘數 ) Hits (H, 安打數 ) Home Runs (HR,全壘打數 )
Total bases (TB) A single (一壘安打 ) -> TB+1 A double (二壘安打 ) -> TB+2
Formula - batters [(AB-SO)×(TB/AB)+BB+SB}×(H/AB)+HR
Inning (局 ) At Bats (AB, 打數 ) StrikeOuts (SO, 三振數 ) Total Bases (TB, 壘打數 ) Base on Balls (BB, 保送數 ) Stolen Base (SB, 盜壘數 ) Hits (H, 安打數 ) Home Runs (HR,全壘打數 )
↑打擊率Batting average
↑Total Bases
(after adjustment)
Formula - batters [(AB-SO)×(TB/AB)+BB+SB}×(H/AB)
+HR The scores that the batters can get
in a game
Formula - pitchers
Starters先發投手
Relievers
救援投手 pitchers
Formula – starters {[(BF-SO)/IP]×[(BB+H)/IP]×BA‘×IP/G}/
α+HR/G total Batters Faced (BF, 面對打者數 ) StrikeOuts (SO, 三振數 ) Innings Pitched (IP, 投球局數 ) Base on Balls (BB, 保送數 ) Games (G, 投球場數 ) BA’ (BA of the opponent, 被打擊率 ) α (own- set scalar for adjustment)
↑number of batter
the possibility that a batter can be on
base↓
↑BA of the opponent
Formula – starters {[(BF-SO)/IP]×[(BB+H)/IP]×BA‘×IP/G}/
α+HR/G The scores that a starting pitcher may lose
in a game
Formula - relievers Starters : scheduled
Discussing each pitcher separately Relievers : unscheduled
Use the average statistics
Formula – relievers WHIP×(H/IP)×IP‘/α
Walks and Hits per Inning Pitched (WHIP) IP’ (average innings that the relievers may
pitch, depending on the starter) H/IP: the average hits that a pitcher may
allow in a inning
Ratio 60% pitcher (starters and relievers)
Ratio of starters and relievers depend on the average innings that a starter can pitch
Starters 66.7% last-3-game 33.3% last-10-game
Relievers 100% Season
40% batter 62.5% last-7-day 37.5% season
Result
Result
Future Adding more factors Standings (戰績 ) Home/away (主客場 ) Fielding (守備 )
Goal 60+% success rate
The End Thank you for listening!
Top Related