2. / SPV Supplier / 3. (concession agreement)
4. Service contract
5. Toll contract
6.
Shadow tolls R3 R2 R1 0 1 2 3 4 R3 R2 R1 0 2 3 4 Shadow tolls 1 7.
government support Concession extension Revenue enhancements Shadow tolls Minimum traffic or revenue guarantee Subordinated loan Grant Debt guarantee Exchange rate guarantee Equity guarantee 8. debt guarantee lender
9. (off-take purchase agreement)
10. EPC contract
11. Operation and Maintenance contracts
12. Insurance
13. Direct agreements
14. Contract mismatch
15. project company (risk seeking behavior of project company)
16.
17. Financial model
Input
Output Model 18. Input
19. Macroeconomic assumption
20. Project costs
21. Operating revenuescosts
22. Loan drawingDebt service
23. Output
24. Lenders cover ratios
25. Ratio analysis
26. Cover ratios Key revenue attributes Required ADSCR Required LLCR Full off-take, w/o currency risk 1.20 1.20 - 1.30 Full off-take, with currency risk 1.30 1.30 - 1.40 Full off-take, price risk, w/o currency risk 1.40 1.30 - 1.80 No off-take, w/o currency risk 1.50 1.50 1.90 No off-take, currency risk 2.00 1.75 2.00 27. Sensitivity analysis
28. Monte Carlo simulation Risk Model Risk A Risk B Risk C Input Output Process (Monte Carlo Simulation) Correlation Source with modifications : Copeland and Antikarov (2000) Probability Outcome 0
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