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High-Impact, Low-Frequency Event Risk tothe North American Bulk Power System
Gerry Cauley, President and CEO, NERC
Mark Lauby, Director, Reliability Assessments andPerformance Analysis, NERC
Industry Briefing | June 2, 2010
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About NERC
Develop & enforce reliability standards
Analyze system outages and near-misses& recommend improved practices
Assess current and future reliability
International regulatory authority for electricreliability in North America
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North Americas Critical Infrastructure
North Americas bulk power system is one of our mostcritical infrastructures; it underpins our government,economy and society in many important ways
Comprised of over 200,000 miles of transmission lines,
thousands of generating plants, and millions of digitalcontrols
Electric sector has a long history of successfullymanaging day-to-day reliability risk
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Managing Risk
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High-Impact, Low-Frequency (HILF) Risks
Black Swan events
Occur very infrequently, or, in somecases, have never occurred
Little real-world operationalexperience with addressing theserisks
Generally have the potential to
impact many assets at once Catastrophic impacts on the bulk
power system and society-at-large
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Examples of Ongoing Public/Private Effortsto Address HILF Risks
Year Effort
2009 NERC Pandemic Influenza Working Group coordinates withgovernment authorities to provide guidance to the electric sectoron the 2009 A/H1N1 Pandemic
July 1 First requirements of NERCs Critical InfrastructureProtection Standards become mandatory and enforceable acrossthe U.S.
2008 U.S. EMP Commission issues summary report onElectromagnetic Pulse risk to civilian infrastructure
National Academy of Sciences releases report on Geo-magneticDisturbances
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NERC/DOE Joint HILF Effort
Partnered in July 2009
Formed Steering Committee
Conducted Workshop inNovember 2009
110 Subject Matter Experts,including DOD, DHS, FERC,
Congressional staff, intelligencecommunity, EMP Commission,all sectors of the electric industry
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Todays Report
Summary of November workshop
Creates a common understandingof three HILF risks
Segmented analysis of threat,vulnerability, and consequence
Lays the groundwork for the
development of an action plan
19 Proposals for Action suggested byworkshop participants
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Three Principal HILF Risks
Coordinated Cyber, Physical, and BlendedAttacks
Pandemics
Geomagnetic Disturbances (GMD),Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP), and IntentionalElectromagnetic Interference (IEMI)
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Common Framework Approach to HILF Risk
Sound Risk Management Must Take Holistic, Sector-Wide Approach
Impossible to fully protect the grid from all threats. Cannot gold plate the system.
Must focus on balance of resilience, restoration, and protection.
Key Interdependencies Must Be Identified and Understood
Electric sector highly dependent on telecommunications and fuel supply and deliveryinfrastructure.
HILF Risk Must be Placed In Context
HILF Risks are part of a larger risk landscape facing the sector. Many competingpriorities strain available resources: smart grid implementation, climate change
HILF Risk Differs from Traditional RisksRequires risk managers to take a different approach to handling these risks.
Public/Private Partnership Critical to Progress
More effective public private partnership must include better information sharing,coordinated R&D, and clearer risk indicators.
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Coordinated Attack Risk
Concerted, well-planned attack against multiplekey nodes
Potential for cyber attacker to manipulate keysystems and provide misleading information tosystem operators
Adaptive attack could actively attempt to thwart
responders efforts to restore power
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Coordinated Attack RiskKey Proposals for Action
More effective information sharing betweengovernment and industry on specific threats andvulnerabilities
Consider traditional system planning andoperating practices with respect to coordinatedattack threats
Research and development to create forensictools for industrial control systems (i.e. SCADA)
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Pandemic Risk
People Event
Potential loss of significantportion of workforce neededto reliably operate the powersystem
2009 A/H1N1 outbreak a
mild event and did not exhibitthe characteristics of mostconcern to the electric sector
Hospitals are overrun during the1918 Pandemic
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Pandemic RiskKey Proposals for Action
Electric sector entities should review pandemicplans to incorporate lessons learned from 2009
A/H1N1 event
Pandemic severity scale should be created tobetter track societal impacts
Better leading indicators should be developed
and communicated to businesses during apandemic outbreak
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Geomagnetic Disturbance Risk
Earthly effects of solar weather
Geomagnetically-induced currents can causewidespread tripping of high-voltagetransmission lines
Potential for lastingdamage to high-voltage
transformers
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Geomagnetic Disturbance RiskKey Proposals for Action
Existing measurement index for strength ofgeomagnetic disturbances (K-index) should beimproved
Spare equipment database for high-voltagetransformers should be considered
Evaluate and recommend cost-effective and
efficient mitigations
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Electromagnetic Pulse and IntentionalElectromagnetic Interference Risk
High-Altitude detonation of a nuclear weaponwould simultaneously interrupt and potentiallydamage many system components
Intentional Electromagnetic Interference, ifcoordinated, could result in local disruptions tomultiple key nodes
l l d l
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Electromagnetic Pulse and IntentionalElectromagnetic Interference RiskKey Proposals for Action
Identify and prioritize top ten mitigations thatare both cost effective and sufficient to protectthe system
Spare equipment database for high-voltagetransformers should be considered
Long-term R&D roadmap
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Question & Answer
Contact:
Janet SenaDirector, Government [email protected]
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]Top Related