Nominal price
Real price
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Typ
e A
oil
pri
ce (
¥/l
itte
r)
Year
Fig.1 Fluctuation of type A oil in Japan
Nominal Price
Real Price
Osamu Tamaru*1, Kazushi Miyashita2, Yasuzumi Fujimori3, Toshihiro Watanabe1 and Teisuke Miura4
1. Introduction 4. Classified and quantified the social situation
3. Construct the fishery income simulation model
Fisheries Research Agency
7. Conclusion and Future works
2. How do we increase income of fishery households?
Operating squid jigging near the harbor increased fishery income in each catch condition.
It may be assumed that effective method for improving managements of squid jigging fisheries households isn’t increasing of weight of catch but decreasing of cost.
Now, we are constructing the squid schooling model with the Boids algorithm for clarifying the influences of fish lamp when squid school under vessels. The fishery income simulation will be considered the influences of fish lamp by incorporating the squid schooling model.
In “the 3rd Oil Crisis”, fishermen should not operate their fishery in a similar way which operated in “the 2nd Oil Crisis”.
Operating squid jigging near the harbor decreased the emissions of exhausted both CO2 and NO2 gasses.(Tamaru et al., submitted)
Fishery income fluctuation by selecting fishing ground in the Japanese coastal squid jigging fishery
1National Research Institute of Fisheries Engineering, Fisheries Research Agency 2Field Science Center for Northern Biosphere, Hokkaido University 3Faculty of Fisheries Science, Hokkaido University 4Hokkaido Industrial Technology Center
y = 1E+07x-0.939
R² = 0.9019
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000
Catch (ton)
Trad
e p
rice
(¥/k
g) R2=0.9019
Total weight of catch (ton)
Un
it p
rice
of
fres
h s
qu
id (
JPY/
kg)
y = 14.623x + 3E+07R² = 0.0182
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
50,000,000
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000
Weight of catch (ton)
Val
ue
of
catc
h(U
nit
: 1
,00
0¥
) R2=0.0182
Total weight of catch (ton)
Tota
l pri
ce o
f ca
tch
(U
nit
: 1,0
00JP
Y)
Fig.2 Relationship between the total weight of catch and the unit price of Japanese common squid
Fig.3 Relationship between the total weight of catch and total trade price of Japanese common squid
Many fishermen have been in financial trouble, because of rising fuel price (Fig.1) and falling fish prices( Fig.3) (Baba 2008)
Many fishermen operate their fishery with their own knowledge and intuition
People make a risky choice when they are in bad situation (Kahneman and Lovallo 1993)
The rate of fuel cost of squid jigging fishery is higher than the other fisheries the 2nd Oil Crisis the 3rd Oil Crisis
1. Quantify squid jigging fisheries management 2. Clarify usability of fishermen’s past experiences in the 2nd Oil Crisis
by using the fishery income simulation model
First principal component
Second oil shock
Before and after second oil shock
Bubble economy
Deflation
Third oil shock
Second principal component
Fig.2 Result of principal component analysis of income determination parameters
I. Before and after the 2nd Oil Crisis
II. the 2nd Oil Crisis
III. the Bubble Boom
V. the 3rd Oil Crisis
IV. Deflation The forward direction of X-axis means increasing of the unit price of fresh squid and decreasing of the employment cost. The forward direction of Y-axis means increasing of the unit price of type A oil.
for classifying social situations
Step 1: Hierarchical cluster analysis
Step 2: Principal component analysis
for quantifying the characteristics of each cluster (Fig.2)
Change these factors which were in the red boxes at the fishery income simulation
The total operation time was set as 20 hours hm get larger and ho get smaller, according as the distance from the harbor to the fishing ground increased
Inco
me
(U
nit
: 1
0,0
00
¥)
Distance from harbor to fishing ground (km)
Before and after second oil shock, Second oil shock,
Bubble economy, Deflation, Third oil shock
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
10km 20km 30km 40km
オイルショック前後 オイルショック期 バブル期 デフレ期 燃料高騰期
50case50case
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
10km 20km 30km 40km
オイルショック前後 オイルショック期 バブル期 デフレ期 燃料高騰期
100case
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
10km 20km 30km 40km
200case200case
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
10km 20km 30km 40km
350case
Relationship between the fishery income estimated with the fishery income simulation and the distance from theharbor to fishing ground
Inco
me
(U
nit
: 1
0,0
00
¥)
Distance from harbor to fishing ground (km)
Before and after second oil shock, Second oil shock,
Bubble economy, Deflation, Third oil shock
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
10km 20km 30km 40km
オイルショック前後 オイルショック期 バブル期 デフレ期 燃料高騰期
50case50case
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
10km 20km 30km 40km
オイルショック前後 オイルショック期 バブル期 デフレ期 燃料高騰期
100case
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
10km 20km 30km 40km
200case200case
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
10km 20km 30km 40km
350case
Relationship between the fishery income estimated with the fishery income simulation and the distance from theharbor to fishing ground
Inco
me
(U
nit
: 1
0,0
00
¥)
Distance from harbor to fishing ground (km)
Before and after second oil shock, Second oil shock,
Bubble economy, Deflation, Third oil shock
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
10km 20km 30km 40km
オイルショック前後 オイルショック期 バブル期 デフレ期 燃料高騰期
50case50case
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
10km 20km 30km 40km
オイルショック前後 オイルショック期 バブル期 デフレ期 燃料高騰期
100case
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
10km 20km 30km 40km
200case200case
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
10km 20km 30km 40km
350case
Relationship between the fishery income estimated with the fishery income simulation and the distance from theharbor to fishing ground
Fig.6 Relationship between the fishery income and the distance from the harbor to the fishing ground
the 3rd Oil Crisis
In all social situations and all catch conditions
the 2nd Oil Crisis
In the regular and good catch conditions
higher income
In the poor and very poor catch conditions
lower income
the lowest income
Very poor catch Poor catch
Good catch Regular catch
Inco
me
(Un
it: 1
0,0
00
JP
Y)
Many fishermen may make risky choices
The emission of exhausted NO2 has similar trend
5. Income fluctuation estimated with the fishery income simulation
The unit price got lower, according as the total catch of squid increased
Increasing of total weight of catch didn’t cause increasing of total price of catch
The fishery operating simulation model make it possible to quantify coastal squid jigging fisheries management
Fig.5 Relationship between distance from harbor to fishing ground and emissions of exhausted gasses
Rate of distance 0% located in the harbor, and 100% located in the fishing ground.
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Rate of distance (%)
Emis
sio
n o
f exh
aust
ed
gas
(kg) NOx
Rate of distance (%)
Emis
sio
n o
f exh
aust
ed
gas
(kg) NOx
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Rate of distance (%)
Emis
sio
n o
f exh
aust
ed
gas
(kg) CO2
Operation Move
near far
CO2
Distance (km)0 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40
Emis
sio
n o
f ex
hau
st g
as (
kg)
Squid jigging
MovingFig.7 Relationship between the emission of exhausted CO2 and distance from the harbor to the fishing ground
Fish lamp
Predator
Schools of squid
Fishhook
Fig.8 3D Boid simulation model for squid jigging fishery
Fig.4 Fluctuation of the unit price of fresh squid
R2 = 0.0182
R2 = 0.9019
C: Amount of catch (case)
r: Unit price of squid (JPY/case)
P: Price of catch (JPY)
P=C•r
M: Employment cost (JPY)
F: Fuel cost (JPY)
mm: Mileage in moving (litter/km)
d: Moving distance (km)
W: Cost of form polystyrene case with ice (JPY)
ho: Continuative tense of squid jigging operation (hour)mo: Mileage in operating squid jigging (litter/h)
O=M+F+W
O: Cost of operation (JPY)
f=mm•d+ho•mo
E=P-OE: Income (JPY)
W=C•y+i•j
y: Unit price of a foam polystyrene case (JPY/case)
i: Unit price of ice (JPY/kg)
C: Amount of catch (case)j: Total amount of ice (kg)
m=0.5177•s2.6236 s: ship speed (km/h)
F=f•R f: Total fuel consumption (litter)
R: Unit price of type A oil (JPY/litter)
ho=H - hm
hm: Continuative tense of moving (hour)
H: Total operation time (hour)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Nominal price
Real price
Trad
e p
rice
(¥
/kg)
Nominal Price
Real Price
6. Exhaust gasses from squid jigging vessel at fishery operation
Before and after the 2nd Oil Crisis
the Bubble Boom
the 2nd Oil Crisis
the 3rd Oil CrisisDeflation
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