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Decision Making
andProblem Solving
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Question!
A farmer with his wolf, goat, and cabbage
come to the edge of a river they wish to
cross. There is a boat at the rivers edge, but
of course, only the farmer can row. The boat
can only handle one animal/item in addition
to the farmer. If the wolf is ever left alone with
the goat, the wolf will eat the goat. If the goatis left alone with the cabbage, the goat will
eat the cabbage. What should the farmer do
to get across the river with all his
possessions?
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Decision Making
Decision Making is choosing
between alternative courses of
action No decision is also a decision
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What is a Problem?
The Word Problemoriginates from
ancient Greek language proballothat
meansto put a
head and
to propose
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What is a Problem?
The difference between two situations or
states:
What is! What should be!
i.e. the ObjectiveorGoal
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The WHAT IS State
A Collection of existing conditions requiring
change (or elimination) related to a specific area
EXAMPLE: Long line-ups in hospital emergency wards. The WHAT IS situation is an evidence ofa
PROBLEMnot the problem itself!
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The WHAT SHOULD BE
State Developing a new WHAT IS which will
provide the required objective
(the WHAT SHOULD BE)
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Problem Statement
A written statement expressing clearly the
required transition from the WHAT IS to the
WHAT SHOULD BE situation within a desiredtime interval.
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Challenge
AGREEMENT on the
WHAT IS and
WHAT SHOULD BE
poses a CHALLENGE!
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Problem vs Opportunity
A Problem is not an Obstruction but rather an
Opportunity
a condition to be reached when aselected objective
(WHAT SHOULD BE) is realized.
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What is a solution?
An action to permit
Realization
of the
What Should Be
Situation
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A
B1
2
S
n - 1n
Set of n possible solutions
(n paths)WHAT
SHOULD
BE The Objective
IDEAL SOLUTION
PATH S
WHAT IS
The Starting Point
THE PROBLEM = BA
CHALLENGE: SELECTING THE OPTIMUM SOLUTION, PATHS
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Optimum Solution
1. Transforms the WHAT IS situation into
the WHAT SHOULD BE objective
2. Satisfies the Three-Question Check
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Three Questions Check
1. WILL IT: accomplish the"objective"? i.e The What Should Be
2. IS IT: feasible to implement?
3. DOES IT: have a minimum numberof"adverse consequences"?
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Decision Making
1. Select the Optimum solution for theidentified problem
2. Make a commitment to carry out theoptimum solution.
3. Move from the What Is to theWhat Should Be (the Objective)
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Problem Solving
Problem Solving is identifying and
correcting deviations between what you
wanted to happen and what actually
happened.
In simple terms, it is explaining the
difference between what you wanted and
what you got.
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Problem Solving
Decision Making focuses on selecting analternative before you do something.Problem Solving focuses on things that go
wrong while you are doing something. Since problem solving is concerned with
the difference between what you wanted
and what you got,
it concentrates onfinding the deviation. This can be lookedat graphically.
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Deviation
Actual
Point of Deviation
You begin with a specific goal in mind
You get a different result
You find the deviation
Begin Goal
Analyze and correct the deviation
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Decision Making Model
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Why are Decisions So Hard?
The four key areas that determine the
relative difficulty ofa decision are:
1. Structure in general, the more structure,
the less information required
2. Cognitive limitations the human mind is
limited to handling 5 to 9 distinct pieces of
information
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Why are Decisions So Hard?
The four key areas that determine the
relative difficulty ofa decision are:
3. Uncertainty the amount is based on how
complete and accurate the information is
4. Alternatives and multiple objectives the
selection ofone alternative may impede
the progress towards a different goal
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Simons Model of Problem Solving
Simon proposed a three-phase model of
problem solving:
1. Intelligence phase the decision maker
looks for indications that a problem exists
2. Design phase alternatives are formulated
and analyzed
3. Choice phase one of the alternatives isselected and implemented
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Simons Model of Problem Solving
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Travelling Salesman Problem
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Initial Heuristic SolutionRule: start at home, go to closest city
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Modified Heuristic SolutionRule: no crossing any connection, no backtracking
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Problems and Solutions
Eg.
Messner
conquered the top
of the mountain.
Problem well put
+
Problem well solved
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Problems and Solutions
Eg.Titanic
Problem well put
+
Problem badly solved
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Problems and Solutions
Eg.
Americas
Discovery
Problem badly put
+
Problem well solved
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Problems and Solutions
Eg.Suicide
Problem badly put
+
Problem badly solved
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Problem Solving vs. Decision-
Making
Problem-solving is a set ofactivities
designed to analyze a situation and find,
implement, and evaluate solutions.
Decision making is making choices at
each step of the problem-solving process.
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Problem Solving and Decision
Making
Critical Thinking
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Critical Thinking: What is it!
Taking yourself (your brain) out ofAutomaticmode, and putting it into Manual mode
Purposeful thought with the objective ofcreating
a result.
An impartial way ofAnalyzing and Evaluatingdata, statements, and observations.
A Process ofunderstanding the relationshipsbetween information, a selection ofpossibledecisions, and their corresponding outcomes.
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YourAutomatic Thinking MindIt can be very, very helpful
Read the following paragraph:
You mghit tnihk its aaminzg taht you canraed tihs with vrialuty no diluftficuy eevntuohg the lttres are mxeid up. It trnus outtaht all you need is the fsrit and lsat leetrts in
the crocert pcale. Tihs is an eaxplme of
yuorbarin rnuning in aoumtatic mdoe.
But can it sometimes be too helpful?Did you pick up that though was misspelled and didnt follow the rule?
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YourAutomatic Thinking MindCan it sometimes help too much?
Count every F in the following text
FINISHED FILES ARE THE RESULT OF YEARS OF SCIENTI
FIC STUDY COMBINED WITH
THE EXPERIENCE OF YEARS
How many did you count?
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YourAutomatic Thinking MindIt makes things up
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Critical ThinkingHow it makes a difference
It enables you to look at issues differently.
This results in new perspectives and ideas.
It prevents a distorted picture. Your brain hides information and make things up.
It gives you a framework to Think.
This helps organize and guide your thinking while
leveraging and incorporating the thinking ofothers.
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Empty your Bucket
Approach a problem ortask as ifyou know
nothing about barriers.
You may not know what todo, or how to accomplish it
but there IS a solution.
Other
Departments
Lack of
resources,time, budget
Been there,
Done that !!!
Conflictingpriorities,
strategies
and projects
Slow Drainage
Filled
Buckets
Overflow
There
IsAlways
A
Way !!!!Empty
Buckets
can
accommodate
anything
Filled Buckets
have no room
forCriticalThinking and
Creativity
They are filled
with Bias
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Responses That Kill Creativity
It cant be done.
Weve never done it.
Has anyone else tried it? It wont work with us
It costs too much.
It isnt in the budget. Lets form a committee.
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Reading furnishes the mind only with materials of
knowledge; it is thinking that makes what we read ours.
- John Locke (1632 - 1704)
The human mind once stretched by a new idea
never goes back to its original dimensions
- OliverWendell Holmes (1809-1894)
Discovery is seeing what everybody else has seen, andthinking what nobody else has thought.
- Albert Szent-Gyorgyi (1893 - 1986)
Quotes
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