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Risk-based Evaluations and Trends of Railway Casualty
Accidents on the National Railway of South Korea
International Railway Safety Conference 2007
Goa, India
30th September - 6th October
Chanwoo Park, Jongbae Wang, Yunok Cho, Hyukjin Yoon, Joonam Park
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I Introduction
Contents
II Development of Risk ssessment Model
III Risk ssessment Results
IV Conclusion
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Railway Casualty Accident
1. Introduction
Excluding train derailment, train collision, train fires/explosion
Excluding collision between a train and a road vehicle on the railway level crossing
Including suspected suicide
Including collision between a train and people in level crossings
Casualty accidents in both railway traffic accidents and safety accidents
All kinds of accidents that cause Injuries of people on railway premises
The railway casualty accident refers to …..
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Railway Casualty Accident Situation on the Main Line
1. Introduction
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Year
F r e
q u e c y
Total Accident Frequency
Casualty Accident Frequency
150
170
190
210
230
250
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Year
F W I
Total Accident Risk
Casualty Accident Risk
Accident Frequency per Year Fatalities and Weighted Injuries (FWI/Year)
“the number of casualty accidents occupies more than 50% of railway accidents
and 90% of the total risk of railway in South Korea.”
0.1 of a fatality for major injury
0.005 of a fatality for minor injury.
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1. Introduction
Research Objectives
Quantitative Risk Evaluation of Casualty Accidents for
Passengers, Railway Staffs and MOP (Member of public)
Hazard Identification / Preliminary Hazard Analysis (PHA)
Frequency Analysis Consequence Analysis
Risk Analysis
Interaction analysis between hazardous events andhazardous condition
WWWSafety regulations,Published sources
Accident relatedreports
Accident Analysis
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2. Development of Risk Assessment Model
Risk Analysis Process
Hazard
Identification
Causal Analysis
Consequence
Analysis
LossAnalysis
OptionsAnalysis
ImpactAnalysis
DemonstrationOf ALARP and
Compliance
- Railtrack, Yellow Book 3: Fundamentals and Guidance, 2000 -
2 D l t f Ri k A t M d l
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2. Development of Risk Assessment Model
Overall Procedures
Railway Accident
Appearance Scenarios
FTA Model
Railway Accident
Progress Scenarios
ETA Model
C a s u a
l
An al y s
i s
C on s e q u e
n c e
An al y si s
Hazard Identification
Defining the Initiating Hazardous Events
Development of Accident Scenarios
Risk Assessment (Loss Analysis)
Hazardous
Events
2 De elopment of Risk Assessment Model
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2. Development of Risk Assessment Model
Initiating Hazardous Events
Railway
Category
Initiating Hazardous Events
Railway Traffic
Casualty
Accident
People
struck/crushedStriking with train, Striking with objects
Trip/SlipTrip/slip during train boarding/alighting, Trip/slip by train emergency
braking/emergency start
Falling Falling from train, Falling from platform during train boarding/alighting
Caught/Dragged Caught in a train door, Caught between platform and train
Others Electric Shock, Burn, Suffocation
Railway safetyaccident
People
struck/crushedStriking with rolling stock, Striking with objects
Trip/SlipTrip/slip inside station premises, Trip/slip on track/level crossing,
Trip/slip inside rolling stock , Trip/slip at workplace
FallingFalling from rolling stock, Falling from rolling stock roof, Falling during
elevated work, Falling from railway structure, Falling from platform
Caught/DraggedCaught in installations inside rolling stock, Caught in railway structure of
station, Caught in work equipment/objects
Electric Shock Electric shock in rolling stock and railway structure
Burn Burn in rolling stock and railway structure
Suffocation Suffocation in rolling stock and railway structure
Others Patient occurrence, Assault/threat, Discovery for casualties
2 Development of Risk Assessment Model
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2. Development of Risk Assessment Model
Accident Appearance Scenario Structure
Hazardous
Event
Hazardous
Factor 1
Human
Factors
Technical
Factors
Third
Party
Hazard
Hazardous
Factor X
Human
Factors
Technical
Factors
Third
Party
Hazard
The number of……
Hazardous events is 28.
Appearance scenarios including hazardous factors is 282.
Detailed hazardous factors is 47.
Accident appearance scenarios is 13,254.
Detailed Hazardous Factors Detailed Hazardous Factors
2 Development of Risk Assessment Model
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2. Development of Risk Assessment Model
Accident Appearance Scenario Example
2 Development of Risk Assessment Model
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2. Development of Risk Assessment Model
Accident Progress Scenario Structure
Critical factors influencing accident severity
were identified in the accident progress scenarios”
Example of the Accident Progress Scenarios
2. Development of Risk Assessment Model
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2. Development of Risk Assessment Model
Accident Analysis Information System
1) railway operation data processing part; 2) accident/incident data processing part; 3) hazard list
management part; 4) hazardous event management part; 5) environment condition management
part; 6) safety measure management part; 7) statistical analysis part of accident/incident data; 8)
accident scenario creation/management part
Railway Accident Analysis Information System
Accident/Incident Analysis
Statistical Analysis ofAccident/Incident Data
Accident Scenario
Creation/Management
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3. Risk Assessment Results
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Total Risk for Railway Casualty Accidents
3. Risk Assessment Results
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Average Frequency/yr for Hazardous Events
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4. Conclusion
Risk model based on the accident scenarios.
Totally 28 initiating hazardous events
Accident frequency assessment model using the FTA technique
Consequence estimation model using the FTA technique
Development of risk assessment model for the railway casualty accidents
Total overall risk per year: 182.9
Risk per year for passenger, MOP, and staff: 53, 115.3, 14.5
Risk of “people striking with train” event: 86.7%
Risk of “trespassers on the open tracks between stations” event: 49.2%
Risk assessment for railway casualty accidents
“First step in the risk assessment of railway casualty accidents in Korea
Application to the definition of the risk reduction measures”
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