BADGERSBadgers-group analysts
Polyakova, Sorokin, Rzayeva, Novikov, Karpukhina
Our Team
BRICS countries: New
Centers of Growth
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Brazil
• Population: 196,7 million
• Area: 8,5 million km2 (5th)
• Capital: Bazilia
• Main exports: o transport equipment, iron ore,
soybeans, footwear, coffee, autos
• Main imports:o machinery, electrical and
transport equipment, chemical products, oil, automotive parts, electronics
• Major trading partners:o The US, China, Argentina
• GDP per capita: $12,916
• Inflation: 6,9 %
Advantages Problems• The ninth largest
economy worldwide in the terms of GDP
• One of the fastest growing emerging economies in the world
• Rich deposits of minerals and natural resources
• Misconceived and inefficient use of fiscal policy
• Bribery and corruption
Growth Projections:• 1.6% (2012) and 4% (2013)
The Economy
Risks & MeasuresRISKS: MEASURES:
• Risk of ‘overheating’
• Government’s inability to take public investments forward
• Prudential monetary policy
• Prudential fiscal policy
Russia
• Population: 143.3 million
• Area: 17,075,400 km2 (1st)
• Capital: Moscow
• Main exports: o petroleum and petroleum
products, natural gas, metals, wood and wood products, chemicals, and a wide variety of civilian and military manufactures
• Main imports:o machinery, vehicles,
pharmaceutical products, plastic, semi-finished metal products, meat, fruits and nuts, optical and medical instruments, iron, steel
• Major trading partners:o European Union, CIS, China, Japan
• GDP per capita: $13,089
• Inflation: 6,1%
Advantages Problems• Huge territory• Large reserve of
raw-materials• Making single high
quality products• Low internal energy
prices
• Huge inequality between different classes
• Low efficiency• Dependence on oil
and gas
Growth Projections:• 3.75% (2012 and 2013)
The Economy
Risks & MeasuresRISKS: MEASURES:
• Downside risks• Deterioration of
external balances• Spillovers from
the Middle East crisis
• Polarization of the Russian society
• Rebuilding fiscal policy buffers
• Structural reforms
• A strengthening of fiscal frameworks
• Monetary policy tightening
India• Population: 1.2 bn (2th)
• Area: 3.3 million sq km (7th)
• Capital: o New Delhi
• Main exports: o Engineering goods, petroleum
products, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, gems and jewellery, textiles and garments, agricultural products, iron ore.
• Main imports:o Crude oil and related products,
machinery, electronic goods, gold and silver
• Major trading partners:o EU, China, the USA, the United
Arab Emirates
• GDP per capita: US $3,700• Inflation: 6.95%
Advantages Problems• Human resources• Developed financial
market • Healthy banking
system• Growth in the standard
of living of Indians
• Population explosion
• Poverty• Unemployment• Rural urban divide
Growth Projections:• 7% (2012 and 2013)
The Economy
Risks & MeasuresRISKS: MEASURES:
• Widening Current Account Deficit (CAD)
• Resurgence of Inflation
• Rising Oil Prices
• Maintaining Fiscal Discipline
• Public expenditure to health and education
• Reforms in labor lows• Reorganization of
agriculture sector• Introduction of
financial reforms
People's Republic of China
• Population: 1.347 billion
• Area: 9,706,961 km2 (3rd/4th)
• Capital: Beijing (Peking)
• Main exports: o Electrical and other machinery,
including data processing equipment, apparel, textiles, iron and steel, optical and medical equipment
• Main imports:o Electrical and other machinery,
oil and mineral fuels, optical and medical equipment, metal ores, plastics, organic chemicals
• Major trading partners:o Japan, South Korea, US,
Germany
• GDP per capita: $5,414
• Inflation: 5.4%
Advantages Problems
• Human resources
• Huge trade surplus
• Steady growth of
the economy
• Possible slowdown
in economic growth
• Long-term inflation
• Challenges from
rebalancing
Growth Projections:• Above 8% (2012 and 2013)
The Economy
Risks & MeasuresRISKS: MEASURES:
• Spillovers to China
from the euro area
• Sharp slowdown in
investment
• Rising Oil Prices
• Deploying fiscal stimulus
• Targeted support to the needy
• Accelerating reforms
The Republic of South Africa
• Main exports: o Gold, diamonds, metals and
minerals, cars, machinery
• Main export partners: o China, US, Japan, Germany
• Main imports:o Petrochemicals, car
components, petroleum oils
• Main import partners:o China, Germany, US, Saudi
Arabia
• GDP per capita: US $8,066• Inflation: 5%
• Population: 50.5 million
• Area: 1.22 million sq km (25th)
• Capitals: o Pretoria (executive capital); o Cape Town (legislative
capital); o Bloemfontein (judicial capital)
Advantages Problems
• Services – 66%
• Diversified Economy
• High levels of:o unemploymento inequality
• Poverty• Crime
AgricultureIndustryServices
Growth
Projections:• 2,6% (2012)
• 3% (2013)
The Economy
Risks & MeasuresRISKS: MEASURES:
• Further growth of
unemployment,
poverty, inequality
• External Spillovers
(esp. in the euro area
& China)
• Soft commodity prices
• Supportive vein:o stengthen policy buffers
o contingency plans
• Monetary policy:o accomodative
• Fiscal policy:o sustain debt rate
o fiscal deficit is allowed to
support activity
Bibliography• BRIC-a-brac. [The Economist]. Aug 8th, 2012• India: 2012 Article IV Consultation. [International
Monetary Fund]. 2012 - 69 pages• Keeler, D. Special Report: BRICs.[Global Finance]. February,
2012• The BRICs: propping up the global economy [Grant thornton
international]. 2012 – 10 pages• The BRICs report. [Oxford University Press]. 2012. – 182
pages• Will India Be The First BRIC FallenAngel?
[Standard&Poor’s].June 8th, 2012• Zotin, A. BRIC – stuck in between the past and the future.
[Kommersant]. September 18th, 2012
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