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CHAPTER 4. LIFE-CYCLE COSTS AND PAYBACK PERIODS
Ballasts that are more energy efficient than those required by the existing ballast standard
would likely be more expensive to purchase but less expensive to operate. The net effect of these
cost changes on commercial and industrial customers is analyzed by calculating life-cycle cost
(LCC), using the equipment prices and engineering data from Chapter 3, together with an assumedelectricity price. Section 4.1 presents the LCC results for each energy-efficient ballast technology
option, and Section 4.2 discusses the payback periods for these design options.
The impact of changing energy-efficiency levels is expressed by two measures:
! Section 4.1: Change in Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) resulting from the purchase and useof an energy-efficient ballast,
! Section 4.2: Payback Period (PAY) for the more energy-efficient ballast.Section 4.3 presents the results of sensitivity analyses using high and low consumer discount ratesdifferent projections of future energy prices..
4.1 LIFE-CYCLE COST FOR TECHNOLOGY OPTIONSLCC is the sum of purchase price (PC) and operating expense (OC) discounted at rate rover
the lifetime (N) of the appliance. Installation costs, such as equipment and labor, are included in PC,
N OCtLCC PC (4.1)
t 1 (1 r)t
and energy consumption and lamp replacements (and associated labor) during the life of a ballast
are included in OC. Discounting means that money spent (or saved) at some future date has less
value than the same expenditures (or savings) in the immediate present.
If operating expenses are constant over time, Eq. 4.1 simplifies to:
LCC PC PWF OC, (4.2)where the present worth factor (PWF) is:
N1
PWF1 1
1 (4.3)t 1 (1 r)t r (1 r)N
The LCC is calculated for each lamp/ballast combination.
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4.1.1 LCC Data Inputs
Data inputs to LCC calculations include end-user prices for ballasts and lamps, electricity
rates ($/kWh), annual lighting operating hours, labor rates, installation times, analysis period,
ballast lifetimes, lamp lifetimes, and discount rates.
Ballast Price Distribution. Chapter 3 describes the methodology used to determine the end-
user prices for ballasts. The LCC analysis uses incremental price for converting from the baseline
EEM T12 ballast to a more efficient design option. These incremental prices are listed in Table 4.1
below. A normal distribution with the mean equal to the incremental price and a standard deviation
of 15% was used to describe the distribution of incremental ballast prices.
Table 4.1 Average and Standard Deviation of Incremental Ballast Prices
Incremental Ballast Price Distribution (1997$)
Product Class Mean Value Standard Deviation
CC T12 ERS T8 ERS CC T12 ERS T8 ERS
1-Lamp Fixture 6.84 12.86 6.69 1.03 1.93 1.00
2-Lamp Fixture 9.04 11.40 8.37 1.36 1.71 1.26
3-Lamp Fixture (tw) 13.56 17.10 12.55 2.03 2.57 1.88
3-Lamp Fixture (non tw) 15.88 10.47 -4.03 2.38 1.57 0.60
4-Lamp Fixture 18.08 17.03 -1.45 2.71 2.55 0.22
2F96/ES NA 17.37 NA 2.61
2F96HO/ES 3.57 12.05 0.54 1.81
Electricity Price Distribution. Marginal electricity prices in $1997/kWh are used. A
detailed explanation of the process for deriving these marginal electricity rates can be found in
Appendix B. Electricity prices projected for the year 2003 are used because that is the earliest year
in which changes to the minimum ballast efficiency standards could occur. Each ballast type is
assumed to be used primarily in either the commercial or industrial sector, and the appropriate
electricity rate for that sector is used to calculate the LCC. Ballasts driving F40T12/ES and F32T8
lamps are assumed to operate primarily in the commercial sector. We estimate that about 75% of
2F96T12 and 65% of 2F06T12HO lamps, respectively, are operated in the commercial sector (seeAppendix A). Sensitivities are also done for 2F96T12 lamps and for 2F96T12HO lamps in the
industrial sector.
Electricity price is a function of the average price distribution obtained from the Energy
Information Agencys data on revenue and sales, for the industrial and commercial sectors byutility,
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and the epsilons discussed in Appendix B. Epsilon is the percent difference between the average
electricity price and the marginal price calculated for each customer on each tariff (the average
epsilon is 5.5%). Figures 4.1 and 4.2 present the distribution of sales-weighted average electricity
rates in the commercial ($0.0762/kWh weighted average) and industrial sectors ($0.0455/kWh
weighted average), and figure 4.3 presents the epsilon distribution. For each selected point on the
average rate distribution, the software program Crystal Ball, selects an epsilon value. Thus, amarginal rate is calculated by the following equation:
Marginal Electricity Rate = Sales Weighted Average Rate x (1 + Epsilon)
Com. 97 Avg Elec Price
.000
.009
.018
.027
.036
1.29 11.72 22.15 32.57 43.00
Figure 4.1 Distribution of 1997 Average Commercial Electricity Prices
Industrial Price Dist.
.056
.042
.028
.014
.000
0.87 9.62 18.37 27.12 35.87
Figure 4.2 Distribution of 1997 Average Industrial Electricity Prices
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Epsilon
.000
.057
.115
.172
.230
-0.85 -0.51 -0.17 0.18 0.52
Figure 4.3 Distribution of Epsilons
Energy Price Forecast. Table 4.2 below shows the AEO 1999 forecast for the price of
electricity relative to the 1997 baseline. Using the Reference case, these ratios were used to estimate
the future marginal prices. Electricity prices are assumed to remain constant after 2020.
Table 4.2 AEO 1999 Average Electricity Price Forecast
Commercial Electricity Price Industrial Electricity Price
Year Reference High Low Reference High Low
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
20142015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
1.00 1.00 1.00
0.98 0.98 0.98
0.96 0.97 0.95
0.94 0.95 0.93
0.93 0.94 0.91
0.91 0.92 0.88
0.91 0.93 0.87
0.91 0.94 0.87
0.90 0.94 0.86
0.90 0.94 0.85
0.89 0.93 0.83
0.88 0.92 0.82
0.87 0.92 0.81
0.86 0.92 0.80
0.85 0.91 0.78
0.84 0.90 0.76
0.83 0.89 0.75
0.82 0.89 0.750.82 0.89 0.74
0.81 0.88 0.73
0.81 0.88 0.72
0.81 0.88 0.71
0.80 0.88 0.70
0.79 0.87 0.69
1.00 1.00 1.00
0.97 0.97 0.97
0.97 0.98 0.97
0.96 0.97 0.95
0.95 0.96 0.93
0.94 0.96 0.92
0.95 0.97 0.92
0.94 0.97 0.91
0.93 0.96 0.89
0.91 0.95 0.87
0.90 0.94 0.85
0.89 0.93 0.83
0.88 0.92 0.83
0.88 0.92 0.82
0.86 0.91 0.80
0.84 0.90 0.78
0.83 0.89 0.77
0.83 0.89 0.760.82 0.88 0.75
0.81 0.87 0.74
0.81 0.87 0.73
0.80 0.87 0.72
0.79 0.86 0.71
0.79 0.86 0.70
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Annual Lighting Operating Hours. Annual lighting hours were derived from a large data
set of lighting energy audits done throughout the U.S. Annual interior lighting hours were calculated
for various commercial-sector building types: office, retail, grocery, restaurant, lodging, health,
assembly, school, college, and warehouse. Interior lighting hours were also calculated for industrial
buildings. Appendix A describes the derivation of the weighted averages for each lamp type. Figures4.4 through Figure 4.9 show the annual operating hours distributions for various lamp types. The
average lighting hours are found in chapter 3.
Oper. Hr - 1F40 (Com.)
.000
.036
.071
.107
.143
259 2,378 4,497 6,616 8,735
Figure 4.4 Annual Lighting Operation Hours Distribution for 1F40T12 in Commercial Sector
Oper. Hr - 2F40 (Com.)
.143
.107
.071
.036
.000
259 2,378 4,497 6,616 8,735
Figure 4.5 Annual Lighting Operation Hours Distribution for 2F40T12 in Commercial Sector
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Oper. Hr - 2F96 (Com.)
.000
.044
.088
.132
.177
237 1,806 3,375 4,944 6,513
Figure 4.6 Annual Lighting Operation Hours Distribution for 2F96T12 in Commercial Sector
31Oper. Hr - 2F96HO (Com.)
.000
.037
.074
.111
.147
209 2,193 4,177 6,162 8,146
Figure 4.7 Annual Lighting Operation Hours Distribution for 2F96T12HO in Commercial
Sector
Oper. Hr - 2F96 (Ind.)
.000
.035
.069
.104
.138
147 2,146 4,146 6,145 8,144
Figure 4.8 Annual Lighting Operation Hours Distribution for 2F96T12 in Industrial Sector
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Oper. Hr - 2F96HO (Ind.)
.000
.033
.066
.099
.132
125 2,130 4,136 6,141 8,147
Figure 4.9 Annual Lighting Operation Hours Distribution for 2F96T12HO in Industrial
Sector
Ballast Life. The period for this analysis is the ballast service life, which is the ballast rated
lifetime divided by the annual lighting hours. The value of 50,000 hours for both magnetic andelectronic ballasts has been agreed to by most stakeholders and also used in the previous analysis.
For a four-foot lamp with a life of 50,000 hours, operated 3,400 hours/year, the period of analysis
would be 50,000 hours/ 3,600 hours/year = 14.7 years. The period of analysis therefore varies
according the life of each ballast and its annual operating hours. Figure 4.10 shows the ballast life
distribution assumed for this analysis. This is a Weibull distribution starting at 18,000 hour life.
Weibull distributions describe data resulting from life and fatigue tests and are commonly used to
describe failure time in reliability studies.
Ballast Life (hr)
18,000 35,907 53,814 71,721 89,628
Figure 4.10 Ballast Life Distribution in hours
Installation Costs. A detailed discussion of installation costs and lamp prices can be found
in Appendix A.
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Discount Rates. A discount rate of 8% real was chosen by the U.S. Department of Energy
(DOE).
4.1.2 LCC Results
In this section, we describe probability-based life-cycle cost analyses performed to accountfor the full range of possible values for four of the most important LCC input variables: ballast life,
ballast price, ballast operating hours, and electricity rate. LCC changes and payback periods are
calculated using a probability distribution of possible values for the input variables weighted by their
likelihood of occurrence and Monte Carlo simulation. The model used to calculate the LCC and
payback periods can be found at the DOE Office of Codes and Standards website (URL:
http://www.eren.doe.gov/buildings/codes_standards/applbrf/ballast.html). A description of the LCC
model can also be found in Section A.7 of Appendix A of this document. The probability
distributions for the key variables are shown in figures 4.1 to 4.10. Figures 4.11 to 4.32 present the
changes in life-cycle cost as a result of switching from the baseline energy-efficient T12 magnetic
ballast to one of the higher-efficiency product types. Figures 4.33 to 4.38 present the same changes
for 1 and 2 lamp T8 Ballasts, but use an energy efficient T8 magnetic ballast as the baseline. Inparticular, the figures show the probability that a particular delta life-cycle cost will occur. This can
be interpreted as the fraction of the ballast population that experiences a particular delta LCC.
Energy Efficient T12 Magnetic Ballast Baseline. Table 4.3 summarizes the life-cycle cost
savings (delta LCC) for each lamp/ballast combination. Delta LCC is the change in LCC when
converting from the baseline option of an EEM ballast to the listed design option. Positive values
mean there is a reduction in LCC. The column labeled % of Baseline LCC is the mean delta LCC
divided by the baseline LCC (expressed as a percentage) obtained when average point values of the
inputs are used. It can be seen, that in many cases the mean delta LCC is a small percentage of the
total LCC. Changes in LCC of a few percent in either direction can be considered (within the
uncertainty of the calculations) as negligible. The column titled % Reduced LCC represents theprobability of the design option resulting in reduced LCC. A positive number means that the LCC
decreased relative to the baseline.
For ballasts operating three or four lamps, we have analyzed two wiring alternatives. For the
three lamp case, we analyzed a tandem-wired case where 2-lamp ballasts only are utilized and a case
where a one-lamp and a two-lamp ballast are used together to operate three lamps. Dual switching
is possible in either case assuming the area is wired appropriately. For the four lamp case, we
analyzed a single 4-lamp T8 ballast operating all four lamps under two situations. One case is with
ordinary wiring and the second case is with tandem-wiring added, which allows for dual switching.
For the latter case, we have estimated an additional cost of $10 for materials and labor.
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Table 4.3 Summary of Delta LCC* Results Using an T12 EEM Ballast as the Baseline
Product Class Design Option Sector Delta LCC
Mean
(1997$)
% of
Baseline
LCC
%
Reduced**
LCC
1F40
T12 CC Commercial -4 -3% 7%
T12 ERS Commercial 4 3% 68%
T8 ERS Commercial 17 13% 98%
2F40
T12 CC Commercial -2 -1% 31%
T12 ERS Commercial 6 3% 80%
T8 ERS Commercial 18 9% 98%
3F40
Tandem-Wired T12 CC Commercial -2 -1% 33%
T12 ERS Commercial 5 2% 68%
T8 ERS Commercial 27 10% 98%
Not Tandem-Wired T12 CC Commercial -4 -1% 23%
T12 ERS Commercial 18 6% 98%
T8 ERS Commercial 56 20% 100%
4F40
T12 CC Commercial -2 -1% 36%
T12 ERS Commercial 12 4% 87%
Tandem-Wired*** T8 ERS Commercial 44 13% 99%
Not Tandem-Wired T8 ERS Commercial 54 16% 100%
2F96
T12 EIS Commercial 7 2% 75%
T12 EIS Industrial -2 -1% 35%
2F96HO
T12 CC Commercial 11 2% 90%
T12 ERS Commercial 28 5% 98%
T12 CC Industrial 1 0% 50%
T12 ERS Industrial 15 4% 94%* A positive Delta LCC implies a LCC savings whereas a negative number implies an increase in LCC.** % ballasts with reduced life cycle cost.*** 4F32T8 ERS ballast with Dual Switching includes a $10 incremental increase in labor and materials.
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Frequency Chart
Certainty is 6.78% from $0 to +Infinity
Mean = ($4).000
.097
.195
.292
.389
0
973.5
3894
($150) ($75) $0 $75 $150
10,000 Trials 0 Outliers
Forecast: LCC Savings 1F40 (Commercial) - CC
Figure 4.11 Life-Cycle Cost Savings for 1F40T12 CC in Commercial Sector
Frequency Chart
Certainty is 68.26% from $0 to +Infinity
.000
.050
.100
.150
.200
0
498.7
997.5
1995
($150) ($75) $0 $75 $150
10,000 Trials 0 Outliers
Forecast: LCC Savings 1F40 (Commercial) - ERS
Mean = $4
Figure 4.12 Life-Cycle Cost Savings for 1F40T12 ERS in Commercial Sector
Frequency Chart
Certainty is 98.27% from $0 to +Infinity
Mean = $17.000
.036
.072
.107
.143
0
358
716
1432
($150) ($75) $0 $75 $150
10,000 Trials 0 Outliers
Forecast: LCC Savings 1F40 (Commercial) - T8 ERS
Figure 4.13 Life-Cycle Cost Savings for 1F32T8 ERS in Commercial Sector
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Frequency Chart
Certainty is 30.84% from $0 to +Infinity
Mean = ($2).000
.064
.128
.192
.256
0
638.7
2555
($150) ($75) $0 $75 $150
10,000 Trials 0 Outliers
Forecast: LCC Savings 2F40 (Commercial) - CC
Figure 4.14 Life-Cycle Cost Savings for 2F40T12 CC in Commercial Sector
Frequency Chart
Certainty is 80.49% from $0 to +Infinity
.000
.046
.092
.138
.184
0
460.2
920.5
1841
($150) ($75) $0 $75 $150
10,000 Trials 0 Outliers
Forecast: LCC Savings 2F40 (Commercial) - ERS
Mean = $6
Figure 4.15 Life-Cycle Cost Savings for 2F40T12 ERS in Commercial Sector
Frequency Chart
Certainty is 97.76% from $0 to +Infinity
Mean = $18.000
.030
.060
.089
.119
0
298.2
596.5
894.7
1193
($150) ($75) $0 $75 $150
10,000 Trials 0 Outliers
Forecast: LCC Savings 2F40 (Commercial) - T8 ERS
Figure 4.16 Life-Cycle Cost Savings for 2F32T8 ERS in Commercial Sector
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Frequency Chart
Certainty is 33.28% from $0 to +Infinity
Mean = ($2).000
.050
.101
.151
.202
0
504.2
2017
($150) ($75) $0 $75 $150
10,000 Trials 0 Outliers
Forecast: LCC Savings 3F40 Tandem-Wired (Commercia
Figure 4.17 Life-Cycle Cost Savings for Tandem-Wired 3F40T12 CC in Commercial
Sector
Frequency Chart
Certainty is 68.46% from $0 to +Infinity
Mean = $5.000
.036
.073
.109
.145
0
362.5
725
1450
($150) ($75) $0 $75 $150
10,000 Trials 0 Outliers
Forecast: LCC Savings 3F40 Tandem-Wired (Commercia
Figure 4.18 Life-Cycle Cost Savings for Tandem-Wired 3F40T12 ERS in Commercial
Sector
Frequency Chart
Certainty is 97.61% from $0 to +Infinity
Mean = $27.000
.022
.043
.065
.086
0
215
430
645
860
($150) ($75) $0 $75 $150
10,000 Trials 1 Outlier
Forecast: LCC Savings 3F40 Tandem-Wired (Commercia
Figure 4.19 Life-Cycle Cost Savings for Tandem-Wired 3F32T8 ERS in Commercial
Sector
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Frequency Chart
Certainty is 23.26% from $0 to +Infinity
Mean = ($4).000
.050
.100
.150
.201
0
501.2
2005
($150) ($75) $0 $75 $150
10,000 Trials 0 Outliers
Forecast: LCC Savings 3F40 Non-Tandem (Commercia)
Figure 4.20 Life-Cycle Cost Savings for Non-Tandem-Wired 3F40T12 CC in Commercial
Sector
Frequency Chart
Certainty is 97.02% from $0 to +Infinity
Mean = $16.000
.033
.066
.099
.132
0
329.7
659.5
989.2
1319
($150) ($75) $0 $75 $150
10,000 Trials 0 Outliers
Forecast: LCC Savings 3F40 Non-Tandem (Commercial)
Figure 4.21 Life-Cycle Cost Savings for Non-Tandem-Wired 3F40T12 ERS in Commercial
Sector
Frequency Chart
Mean = $56.000
.016
.033
.049
.066
0
164
328
492
656
($150) ($75) $0 $75 $150
10,000 Trials 11 Outliers
Forecast: LCC Savings 3F40 Non-Tandem (Commercial
Figure 4.22 Life-Cycle Cost Savings for Non-Tandem-Wired 3F32T8 ERS in Commercial
Sector
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Frequency Chart
Certainty is 36.26% from $0 to +Infinity
Mean = ($2).000
.039
.078
.117
.156
0
390.2
780.5
1561
($150) ($75) $0 $75 $150
10,000 Trials 0 Outliers
Forecast: LCC Savings 4F40 (Commercial) - CC
Figure 4.23 Life-Cycle Cost Savings for 4F40T12 CC in Commercial Sector
Frequency Chart
Certainty is 87.16% from $0 to +Infinity
Mean = $12.000
.029
.058
.088
.117
0
291.7
583.5
875.2
1167
($150) ($75) $0 $75 $150
10,000 Trials 0 Outliers
Forecast: LCC Savings 4F40 (Commercial) - ERS
Figure 4.24 Life-Cycle Cost Savings for 4F40T12 ERS in Commercial Sector
Frequency Chart
Certainty is 99.46% from $0 to +Infinity
Mean = $44
.000
.017
.033
.050
.067
0
166.7
333.5
500.2
667
($150) ($75) $0 $75 $150
10,000 Trials 10 Outliers
Forecast: LCC Savings 4F40 (Commercial) - T8 ERS
Figure 4.25 Life-Cycle Cost Savings for 4F32T8 ERS with Dual Switching Capability in
Commercial Sector
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Frequency Chart
Mean = $54.000
.016
.032
.047
.063
0
157.7
315.5
473.2
631
($150) ($75) $0 $75 $150
10,000 Trials 15 Outliers
Forecast: LCC Savings 4F40 (Commercial) - T8 ERS
Figure 4.26 Life-Cycle Cost Savings for 4F32T8 ERS without Dual Switching Capability in
Commercial Sector
Frequency Chart
Certainty is 74.54% from $0 to +Infinity
Mean = $7.000
.033
.067
.100
.133
0
332.7
665.5
998.2
1331
($150) ($75) $0 $75 $150
10,000 Trials 0 Outliers
Forecast: LCC Savings 2F96 (Commercial) - EIS
Figure 4.27 Life-Cycle Cost Savings for 2F96T12 EIS in Commercial Sector
Frequency Chart
Certainty is 35.35% from $0 to +Infinity
Mean = ($2)
.000
.046
.093
.139
.185
0
463.5
927
1854
($150) ($75) $0 $75 $150
10,000 Trials 0 Outliers
Forecast: LCC Savings 2F96 (Industrial) - EIS
Figure 4.28 Life-Cycle Cost Savings for 2F96T12 EIS in Industrial Sector
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Frequency Chart
Certainty is 90.02% from $0 to +Infinity
Mean = $11.000
.037
.073
.110
.146
0
365.5
731
1462
($150) ($75) $0 $75 $150
10,000 Trials 0 Outliers
Forecast: LCC Savings 2F96HO (Commercial) - CC
Figure 4.29 Life-Cycle Cost Savings for 2F96T12HO CC in Commercial Sector
Frequency Chart
Certainty is 97.90% from $0 to +Infinity
Mean = $28.000
.021
.042
.063
.084
0
210.7
421.5
632.2
843
($150) ($75) $0 $75 $150
10,000 Trials 0 Outliers
Forecast: LCC Savings 2F96HO (Commercial) - ERS
Figure 4.30 Life-Cycle Cost Savings for 2F96T12HO ERS in Commercial Sector
Frequency Chart
Certainty is 50.10% from $0 to +Infinity
Mean = $1.000
.045
.089
.134
.179
0
446.5
893
1786
($150) ($75) $0 $75 $150
10,000 Trials 0 Outliers
Forecast: LCC Savings 2F96HO (Industrial) - CC
Figure 4.31 Life-Cycle Cost Savings for 2F96T12HO CC in Industrial Sector
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Frequency Chart
Certainty is 94.28% from $0 to +Infinity
Mean = $15.000
.030
.061
.091
.122
0
304.2
608.5
912.7
1217
10,000 Trials 0 Outliers
($150) ($75) $0 $75 $150
Forecast: LCC Savings 2F96HO (Industrial) - ERS
Figure 4.32 Life-Cycle Cost Savings for 2F96T12HO ERS in Industrial Sector
Energy Efficient T8 Magnetic Ballast Baseline. Table 4.4 and the following 5 figures
present the results of an LCC analysis looking at switching from a T8 magnetic ballast baseline to
a more energy efficient T8 ballast for 1 and 2 lamp fixtures. For the EIS and CC ballasts, there is areduction in lamp lifetime from 19,000 hours to 14,000 and 16,150 hours, respectively that is taken
into account in the LCC analysis. The ballast prices used for this LCC analysis are shown below. The
magnetic and cathode cutout ballast prices come from the July, 1997 ballast report. The ERS prices
are shown in Chapter 3 and the EIS prices are assumed to be $1 less than the ERS ballast prices.
Table 4.4 Summary of Delta LCC* Results Using an EEM T8 Ballast as a Baseline
Product Class Design Option Sector Delta LCC
Mean
(1997$)
% of
Baseline
LCC
%
Reduced**
LCC1F32
T8 ERS Commercial 6 5% 96%
T8 EIS Commercial 1 1% 54%
2F32
T8 CC Commercial 0 0% 52%
T8 ERS Commercial 9 4% 97%
T8 EIS Commercial 6 3% 79%* A positive Delta LCC implies a LCC savings whereas a negative number implies an increase in LCC.
** % ballasts with reduced life cycle cost.
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Table 4.5 T8 Ballast Prices for Use with T8 Ballast LCC Analysis
Ballast Price (1997$)
Product Class Baseline EEM CC ERS EIS
1-lamp ballast 15.96 N/A 20.10 19.10
2-lamp ballast 15.60 19.24 21.54 20.54
Frequency Chart
Certainty is 96.14% from $0 to +Infinity
.000
.082
.164
.245
.327
0
818.2
3273
($150) ($75) $0 $75 $150
10,000 Trials 0 Outliers
Forecast: LCC Sav 1F32 ERS Comm
Figure 4.33 Life-Cycle Cost Savings for 1F32T8 ERS in Commercial Sector
Frequency Chart
Certainty is 53.76% from $0 to +Infinity
.000
.083
.167
.250
.333
0
832.7
3331
($150) ($75) $0 $75 $150
10,000 Trials 0 Outliers
Forecast: LCC 1F32 EIS Comm
Figure 4.34 Life-Cycle Cost Savings for 1F32T8 EIS in Commercial Sector
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Frequency Chart
Certainty is 52.20% from $0 to +Infinity
.000
.076
.152
.228
.304
0
759.2
3037
($150) ($75) $0 $75 $150
10,000 Trials 0 Outliers
Forecast: LCC Sav 2F32 CC Comm
Figure 4.35 Life-Cycle Cost Savings for 2F32T8 CC in Commercial Sector
Frequency Chart
Certainty is 96.76% from $0 to +Infinity
.000
.055
.110
.165
.220
0
550.2
2201
($150) ($75) $0 $75 $150
10,000 Trials 0 Outliers
Forecast: LCC Sav 2F32 ERS Comm
Figure 4.36 Life-Cycle Cost Savings for 2F32T8 ERS in Commercial Sector
Frequency Chart
Certainty is 78.93% from $0 to +Infinity
.000
.052
.105
.157
.210
0
524.5
2098
($150) ($75) $0 $75 $150
10,000 Trials 0 Outliers
Forecast: LCC Sav 2F32 EIS Comm
Figure 4.37 Life-Cycle Cost Savings for 2F32T8 EIS in Commercial Sector
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4.2 PAYBACK PERIODS BY ENERGY-EFFICIENCY LEVEL
The payback period (PAY) is the amount of time needed to recover through lower operating
costs, OC, the additional consumer investment, PC, in increased efficiency. PAY is found by
solving the equation:
PAY
PC OCt
O (4.4)t 1
forPAY. In general,PAYis found by interpolating between the two years when the expression in
Eq. 4.4 changes sign. If the operating cost is constant, the equation has the simple solution:
PCPAY (4.5)
OC
Numerically, the payback period is the ratio of the difference in purchase (and installation)
price between the base and the energy-efficient models to the decrease in annual operating
expenditures (including maintenance). Annual operating costs for ballasts include annual lamp
replacement cost plus annual electricity cost.
PCPAY (4.6)
EC LRC
where EC is the electricity cost and LRC is the lamp replacement cost. Because the life of a lampwith a CC or EIS ballast is less than that of a lamp with an EEM or ERS ballast, lamp replacement
costs may occur at different times during the life of the ballast, depending upon the ballast-lamp
combination. A longer lamp life results in a lower operating cost. In order to account for differences
in lamp life, the cost of lamp replacement has been divided over the life of the lamp so that an annual
lamp replacement cost (LRC) is equal to:
LRCCost of Lamp Replacement
(4.7)Lamp Life
For example, consider the payback calculation for going from an EEM to a CC ballast for the
2F40T12/ES case. Suppose the ballast equipment and labor costs are $34.54 and $39.43 for the
EEM and CC options, respectively. The annual electricity costs are $19.55 and $17.81, respectively,
and the lamp equipment and labor cost is $14.78 for each. The lamp service life for EEM ballasts
is 5.28 yrs and for CC it is 4.49 yrs. Thus, we have PC = $-4.89, EC = $1.74/yr and
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14.78 14.78LRC $0.49/yr
5.28 4.49
This results in a payback period of equation as follows:4.89
PAY 3.9yrs1.74 0.49
Note there has been no discounting of lamp costs or electricity costs in this formulation of payback
period.
Payback periods are expressed in years. A payback period of three years means that the
increased purchase price for an energy-efficient ballast relative to a baseline ballast is recovered in
approximately three years because of lower operating expenses. Payback periods greater than the
life of the product mean that the increased purchase price is not recovered through reduced operatingexpenses.
4.2.1 Payback Period Results
The output from the payback period analysis is a distribution of paybacks that may contain
negative values. Occasionally, very large negative values (for cathode-cutout ballasts) distort the
mean payback period value. For this reason, we present the median payback period. Therefore, for
the 10,000 cases analyzed for each lamp/ballast combination, 5000 have payback periods below and
5,000 have payback periods above the median values shown in the table. It is possible for the median
payback period to be negative if the first cost of the ballast plus lamp is lower for the more efficient
technology than for the baseline. We interpret negative payback periods (e.g., for three-lamp nontandem, T8 ERS and 4 lamp T8 ERS) as essentially immediate paybacks. A summary listing the
median payback period for each lamp/ballast combination is presented in Table 4.6. The
corresponding probability distributions are presented in Figures 4.38 to 4.59. Table 4.7 and Figures
4.60 to 4.64 present the summary results and corresponding probability distributions using the energy
efficient T8 magnetic ballast as the baseline. The last column in the summary table presents the
percent of cases for which the median payback period is less than 15 years. A 15-year period was
chosen because it approximates average ballast life for most of the lamp/ballast combinations.
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Table 4.6 Summary of Payback Periods Using the T12 EEM as the Baseline
Product Class Design
Option
Sector Median
Payback
Period (yrs)
% With Payback
Less Than 15 yrs
1F40
T12 CC Commercial 24.8 26
T12 ERS Commercial 6.4 94
T8 ERS Commercial 2.7 99
2F40
T12 CC Commercial 10.7 71
T12 ERS Commercial 5.4 96
T8 ERS Commercial 3.1 99
3F40
Tandem-Wired T12 CC Commercial 9.9 76
T12 ERS Commercial 6.4 93
T8 ERS Commercial 3.1 99
Not Tandem-Wired T12 CC Commercial 11.5 68
T12 ERS Commercial 3.3 99
T8 ERS Commercial 0.0 100
4F40
T12 CC Commercial 9.3 80
T12 ERS Commercial 4.8 97Dual Switching T8 ERS Commercial 1.9 100
w/o Dual Switching T8 ERS Commercial 0.4 100
2F96
T12 EIS Commercial 5.9 94
T12 EIS Industrial 8.8 84
2F96HO
T12 CC Commercial 2.1 98
T12 ERS Commercial 2.4 99
T12 CC Industrial 5.4 76
T12 ERS Industrial 3.1 99
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Frequency Chart
Certainty is 26.42% from 0.0 to 15.0
.000
.003
.005
.008
.010
0
25.75
51.50
77.25
103
0.0 7.5 15.0 22.5 30.0
10,000 Trials 4,064 Outliers
Forecast: Payback 1F40 (Commercial) - CC
Figure 4.38 Payback Distribution for 1F40T12 CC in Commercial Sector
Frequency Chart
Certainty is 93.54% from 0.0 to 15.0
.000
.011
.022
.033
.044
0
109
218
327
436
0.0 7.5 15.0 22.5 30.0
10,000 Trials 132 Outliers
Forecast: Payback 1F40 (Commercial) - ERS
Figure 4.39 Payback Distribution for 1F40T12 ERS in Commercial Sector
Frequency Chart
Certainty is 99.20% from 0.0 to 15.0
.000
.027
.053
.080
.106
0
265
530
795
1060
0.0 7.5 15.0 22.5 30.0
10,000 Trials 19 Outliers
Forecast: Payback 1F40 (Commercial) - T8 ERS
Figure 4.40 Payback Distribution for 1F32T8 ERS in Commercial Sector
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Frequency Chart
Certainty is 70.92% from 0.0 to 15.0
.000
.006
.012
.018
.024
0
60.75
121.5
182.2
243
0.0 7.5 15.0 22.5 30.0
10,000 Trials 636 Outliers
Forecast: Payback 2F40 (Commercial) - CC
Figure 4.41 Payback Distribution for 2F40T12 CC in Commercial Sector
Frequency Chart
Certainty is 95.90% from 0.0 to 15.0
.000
.013
.026
.039
.052
0
129.2
258.5
387.7
517
0.0 7.5 15.0 22.5 30.0
10,000 Trials 62 Outliers
Forecast: Payback 2F40 (Commercial)- ERS
Figure 4.42 Payback Distribution for 2F40T12 ERS in Commercial Sector
Frequency Chart
Certainty is 98.91% from 0.0 to 15.0
.000
.022
.044
.066
.088
0
220.2
440.5
660.7
881
0.0 7.5 15.0 22.5 30.0
10,000 Trials 23 Outliers
Forecast: Payback 2F40 (Commercial)- T8 ERS
Figure 4.43 Payback Distribution for 2F32T8 ERS in Commercial Sector
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Frequency Chart
Certainty is 76.21% from 0.0 to 15.0
.000
.006
.013
.019
.025
0
62.75
125.5
188.2
251
0.0 7.5 15.0 22.5 30.0
10,000 Trials 449 Outliers
Forecast: Payback 3F40 Tandem-Wired (Commercial) -
Figure 4.44 Payback Distribution for Tandem-Wired 3F40T12 CC in Commercial Sector
Frequency Chart
Certainty is 93.37% from 0.0 to 15.0
.000
.011
.022
.033
.044
0
109.2
218.5
327.7
437
0.0 7.5 15.0 22.5 30.0
10,000 Trials 113 Outliers
Forecast: Payback 3F40 Tandem-Wired (Commercial) -
Figure 4.45 Payback Distribution for Tandem-Wired 3F40T12 ERS in Commercial Sector
Frequency Chart
Certainty is 98.90% from 0.0 to 15.0
.000
.022
.043
.065
.086
0
215.5
430.9
646.5
861.9999999
0.0 7.5 15.0 22.5 30.0
10,000 Trials 23 Outliers
Forecast: Payback 3F40 Tandem-Wired (Commercial) -
Figure 4.46 Payback Distribution for Tandem-Wired 3F32T8 ERS in Commercial Sector
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Frequency Chart
Certainty is 68.48% from 0.0 to 15.0
.000
.006
.013
.019
.025
0
62.5
125
187.5
250
0.0 7.5 15.0 22.5 30.0
10,000 Trials 628 Outliers
Forecast: Payback 3F40 Non-Tandem (Commercial) - C
Figure 4.47 Payback Distribution for Non-Tandem-Wired 3F40T12 CC in Commercial
Sector
Frequency Chart
Certainty is 98.97% from 0.0 to 15.0
.000
.021
.041
.062
.083
0
207
414
621
828
0.0 7.5 15.0 22.5 30.0
10,000 Trials 23 Outliers
Forecast: Payback 3F40 Non-Tandem (Commercial) - E
Figure 4.48 Payback Distribution for Non-Tandem-Wired 3F40T12 ERS in Commercial
Sector
Frequency Chart
.000
.250
.500
.750
1.000
0
9997
0.0 7.5 15.0 22.5 30.0
10,000 Trials 0 Outliers
Forecast: Payback 3F40 Non-Tandem (Commercial) - T
Figure 4.49 Payback Distribution for Non-Tandem-Wired 3F32T8 ERS in Commercial
Sector
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Frequency Chart
Certainty is 79.66% from 0.0 to 15.0
.000
.007
.014
.021
.028
0
69.75
139.5
209.2
279
0.0 7.5 15.0 22.5 30.0
10,000 Trials 352 Outliers
Forecast: Payback 4F40 (Commercial) - CC
Figure 4.50 Payback Distribution for 4F40T12 CC in Commercial Sector
Frequency Chart
Certainty is 96.94% from 0.0 to 15.0
.000
.014
.028
.042
.056
0
140
280
420
559.9999999
0.0 7.5 15.0 22.5 30.0
10,000 Trials 46 Outliers
Forecast: Payback 4F40 (Commercial) - ERS
Figure 4.51 Payback Distribution for 4F40T12 ERS in Commercial Sector
Frequency Chart
Certainty is 99.61% from 0.0 to 15.0
.000
.035
.069
.104
.138
0
345.2
690.5
1381
0.0 7.5 15.0 22.5 30.0
10,000 Trials 7 Outliers
Forecast: Payback 4F40 (Commercial) - T8 ERS
Figure 4.52 Payback Distribution for 4F32T8 ERS with Dual Switching Capability in
Commercial Sector
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Frequency Chart
.000
.122
.245
.367
.490
0
4899
0.0 7.5 15.0 22.5 30.0
10,000 Trials 0 Outliers
Forecast: Payback 4F40 (Commercial) - T8 ERS
Figure 4.53 Payback Distribution for 4F32T8 ERS without Dual Switching Capability in
Commercial Sector
Frequency Chart
Certainty is 93.38% from 0.0 to 15.0
.000
.012
.024
.035
.047
0
118
236
354
472
0.0 7.5 15.0 22.5 30.0
10,000 Trials 150 Outliers
Forecast: Payback 2F96 (Commercial) - EIS
Figure 4.54 Payback Distribution for 2F96T12 EIS in Commercial Sector
Frequency Chart
Certainty is 84.26% from 0.0 to 15.0
.000
.008
.015
.023
.031
0
76.75
153.5
230.2
307
0.0 7.5 15.0 22.5 30.0
10,000 Trials 150 Outliers
Forecast: Payback 2F96 (Industrial) - EIS
Figure 4.55 Payback Distribution for 2F96T12 EIS in Industrial Sector
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Frequency Chart
Certainty is 97.91% from 0.0 to 15.0
.000
.027
.055
.082
.110
0
274.5
549
823.5
1098
0.0 7.5 15.0 22.5 30.0
10,000 Trials 97 Outliers
Forecast: Payback 2F96HO (Commercial) - CC
Figure 4.56 Payback Distribution for 2F96T12HO CC in Commercial Sector
Frequency Chart
Certainty is 98.88% from 0.0 to 15.0
.000
.028
.055
.083
.111
0
276.5
553
829.5
1106
0.0 7.5 15.0 22.5 30.0
10,000 Trials 56 Outliers
Forecast: Payback 2F96HO (Commercial) - ERS
Figure 4.57 Payback Distribution for 2F96T12HO ERS in Commercial Sector
Frequency Chart
Certainty is 76.29% from 0.0 to 15.0
.000
.010
.020
.030
.040
0
101
202
303
404
0.0 7.5 15.0 22.5 30.0
10,000 Trials 1,782 Outliers
Forecast: Payback 2F96HO (Industrial) - CC
Figure 4.58 Payback Distribution for 2F96T12HO CC in Industrial Sector
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Frequency Chart
Certainty is 99.16% from 0.0 to 15.0
.000
.022
.044
.066
.088
0
219
438
657
876
0.0 7.5 15.0 22.5 30.0
10,000 Trials 20 Outliers
Forecast: Payback 2F96HO (Industrial) - ERS
Figure 4.59 Payback Distribution for 2F96T12HO ERS in Industrial Sector
Table 4.7 Summary of Payback Periods Using a T8 EEM Ballast as the Baseline
Product Class Design
Option
Sector Median
Payback
Period (yrs)
% With Payback
Less Than 15 yrs
1F32
T8 ERS Commercial 3.4 99%
T8 EIS Commercial 6.6 81%
2F32
T8 CC Commercial 8.2 78%
T8 ERS Commercial 3.3 100%
T8 EIS Commercial 4.0 95%
Frequency Chart
Certainty is 98.57% from 0.0 to 15.0
.000
.021
.042
.062
.083
0
208.2
416.5
624.7
833
0.0 7.5 15.0 22.5 30.0
10,000 Trials 31 Outliers
Forecast: Payback 1F32 ERS Comm
Figure 4.60 Payback Distribution for 1F32T8 ERS in Commercial Sector
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Frequency Chart
Certainty is 80.53% from 0.0 to 15.0
.000
.009
.017
.026
.035
0
86.5
173
259.5
346
0.0 7.5 15.0 22.5 30.0
10,000 Trials 886 Outliers
Forecast: Payback 1F32 EIS Comm
Figure 4.61 Payback Distribution for 1F32T8 EIS in Commercial Sector
Frequency Chart
Certainty is 77.89% from 0.0 to 15.0
.000
.007
.014
.021
.028
0
69.75
139.5
209.2
279
0.0 7.5 15.0 22.5 30.0
10,000 Trials 704 Outliers
Forecast: Payback 2F32 CC Comm
Figure 4.62 Payback Distribution for 2F32T8 CC in Commercial Sector
Frequency Chart
Certainty is 99.77% from 0.0 to 30.0
.000
.021
.043
.064
.085
0
213.5
427
640.5
854
0.0 7.5 15.0 22.5 30.0
10,000 Trials 23 Outliers
Forecast: Payback 2F32 ERS Comm
Figure 4.63 Payback Distribution for 2F32T8 ERS in Commercial Sector
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Frequency Chart
Certainty is 94.54% from 0.0 to 15.0
.000
.014
.028
.042
.057
0
141.5
283
424.5
566
10,000 Trials 180 Outliers
0.0 7.5 15.0 22.5 30.0
Forecast: Payback 2F32 EIS Comm
Figure 4.64 Payback Distribution for 2F32T8 EIS in Commercial Sector
4.3 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
In order to observe the sensitivity of LCC to discount rates and electricity prices, we
performed additional analyses. For discount rates, we recalculated the LCC savings using a low (4%)
and a high (15%) estimate of the consumer discount rate. Tables 4.8 and 4.9 show the results of this
sensitivity analysis for each case respectively.
For electricity prices, we recalculated the LCC savings and the Payback using the both the
AEO 1999 High Economic Growth Forecast, and the AEO 1999 Low Economic Growth Forecast.
Tables 4.10 and 4.11 show the LCC and Payback results for the High Growth Forecast. Tables 4.12
and 4.13 show the results for the Low Growth Forecast.
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Table 4.8 Summary of Delta LCC* Sensitivity Results with 4% Discount Rate
Product Class Design Option Sector Delta LCC
Mean
(1997$)
% of
Baseline
LCC
%
Reduced**
LCC
1F40
T12 CC Commercial -4 -3% 18%
T12 ERS Commercial 9 6% 87%
T8 ERS Commercial 24 15% 100%
2F40
T12 CC Commercial 0 0% 49%
T12 ERS Commercial 11 5% 93%
T8 ERS Commercial 27 11% 99%
3F40
Tandem-Wired T12 CC Commercial 1 0% 52%
T12 ERS Commercial 12 4% 86%
T8 ERS Commercial 39 12% 99%
Not Tandem-Wired T12 CC Commercial -1 0% 42%
T12 ERS Commercial 24 7% 99%
T8 ERS Commercial 72 21% 100%
4F40
T12 CC Commercial 3 1% 56%
T12 ERS Commercial 21 5% 96%
Tandem-Wired*** T8 ERS Commercial 61 14% 100%
Not Tandem-Wired T8 ERS Commercial 70 17% 100%
2F96
T12 EIS Commercial 15 4% 91%
T12 EIS Industrial 3 1% 59%
2F96HO
T12 CC Commercial 14 2% 91%
T12 ERS Commercial 40 6% 99%
T12 CC Industrial 2 0% 54%
T12 ERS Industrial 22 4% 97%* A positive Delta LCC implies a LCC savings whereas a negative number implies an increase in LCC.** % ballasts with reduced life-cycle costs.*** 4F32T8 ERS ballast with Dual Switching includes a $10 incremental increase in materials and labor
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Table 4.9 Summary of Delta LCC* Sensitivity Results with 15% Discount Rate
Product Class Design Option Sector Delta LCC
Mean
(1997$)
% of
Baseline
LCC
%
Reduced**
LCC
1F40
T12 CC Commercial -5 -5% 1%
T12 ERS Commercial -1 -1% 35%
T8 ERS Commercial 9 9% 93%
2F40
T12 CC Commercial -4 -3% 12%
T12 ERS Commercial 1 1% 50%
T8 ERS Commercial 10 7% 90%
3F40
Tandem-Wired T12 CC Commercial -5 -3% 13%
T12 ERS Commercial -2 -1% 36%
T8 ERS Commercial 14 7% 90%
Not Tandem-Wired T12 CC Commercial -8 -4% 7%
T12 ERS Commercial 8 4% 86%
T8 ERS Commercial 40 19% 100%
4F40
T12 CC Commercial -7 -3% 15%
T12 ERS Commercial 3 1% 61%
Tandem-Wired*** T8 ERS Commercial 27 11% 97%
Not Tandem-Wired T8 ERS Commercial 37 15% 100%
2F96
T12 EIS Commercial 0 0% 43%
T12 EIS Industrial -6 -3% 13%
2F96HO
T12 CC Commercial 6 1% 85%
T12 ERS Commercial 17 4% 93%
T12 CC Industrial 0 0% 41%
T12 ERS Industrial 8 2% 83%* A positive Delta LCC implies a LCC savings whereas a negative number implies an increase in LCC.** % ballasts with reduced life-cycle costs.*** 4F32T8 ERS ballast with Dual Switching includes a $10 incremental increase in materials and labor.
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Table 4.10 Summary of Delta LCC* Sensitivity Results using AEO 1999 High Growth
Forecast
Product Class Design Option Sector Delta LCC
Mean
(1997$)
% of
Baseline
LCC
%
Winners**
1F40
T12 CC Commercial -4 -3% 9%
T12 ERS Commercial 5 4% 73%
T8 ERS Commercial 18 13% 99%
2F40
T12 CC Commercial -1 -1% 35%
T12 ERS Commercial 7 4% 84%
T8 ERS Commercial 20 10% 98%
3F40
Tandem-Wired T12 CC Commercial -1 0% 38%
T12 ERS Commercial 6 2% 73%
T8 ERS Commercial 30 11% 98%
Not Tandem-Wired T12 CC Commercial -3 1% 27%
T12 ERS Commercial 18 6% 98%
T8 ERS Commercial 59 20% 100%
4F40
T12 CC Commercial -1 0% 41%
T12 ERS Commercial 14 4% 90%
Dual Switching*** T8 ERS Commercial
w/o Dual Switching T8 ERS Commercial 57 16% 100%
2F96
T12 EIS Commercial 8 1% 78%
T12 EIS Industrial -1 0% 39%
2F96HO
T12 CC Commercial 12 2% 92%
T12 ERS Commercial 30 5% 98%
T12 CC Industrial 2 0% 54%
T12 ERS Industrial 17 4% 95%* A positive Delta LCC implies a LCC savings whereas a negative number implies an increase in LCC.** % ballasts with reduced life-cycle costs (winners).*** 4F32T8 ERS ballast with Dual Switching includes a $10 incremental increase in purchase price.
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Table 4.11 Summary of Payback Sensitivity using AEO 1999 High Growth Forecast
Product Class Design
Option
Sector Median
Payback
Period (yrs)
% With Payback
Less Than 15 yrs
1F40
T12 CC Commercial 23.5 29%
T12 ERS Commercial 6.3 93%
T8 ERS Commercial 2.6 99%
2F40
T12 CC Commercial 10.3 74%
T12 ERS Commercial 5.3 96%
T8 ERS Commercial 3.0 99%
3F40
Tandem-Wired T12 CC Commercial 9.6 79%T12 ERS Commercial 6.2 94%
T8 ERS Commercial 3.0 99%
Not Tandem-Wired T12 CC Commercial 11.1 71%
T12 ERS Commercial 3.2 99%
T8 ERS Commercial 0.0 100%
4F40
T12 CC Commercial 9.1 82%
T12 ERS Commercial 4.7 97%
Dual Switching T8 ERS Commercial 1.8 100%
w/o Dual Switching T8 ERS Commercial 0.4 100%
2F96
T12 EIS Commercial 5.7 94%
T12 EIS Industrial 8.6 85%
2F96HO
T12 CC Commercial 2.0 98%
T12 ERS Commercial 2.3 99%
T12 CC Industrial 5.0 78%
T12 ERS Industrial 3.1 99%
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Table 4.12 Summary of Delta LCC* Sensitivity Results using AEO 1999 Low Growth
Forecast
Product Class Design Option Sector Delta LCC
Mean
(1997$)
% of
Baseline
LCC
%
Winners**
1F40
T12 CC Commercial -5 -4% 6%
T12 ERS Commercial 3 2% 61%
T8 ERS Commercial 15 12% 98%
2F40
T12 CC Commercial -3 2% 25%
T12 ERS Commercial 5 3% 76%
T8 ERS Commercial 16 9% 97%
3F40
Tandem-Wired T12 CC Commercial -3 -1% 28%
T12 ERS Commercial 3 1% 61%
T8 ERS Commercial 24 10% 97%
Not Tandem-Wired T12 CC Commercial -5 2% 18%
T12 ERS Commercial 14 5% 96%
T8 ERS Commercial 52 19% 100%
4F40
T12 CC Commercial -3 -1% 30%
T12 ERS Commercial 10 3% 83%
Dual Switching*** T8 ERS Commercial 40 12% 99%
w/o Dual Switching T8 ERS Commercial 49 15% 100%
2F96
T12 EIS Commercial 6 2% 69%
T12 EIS Industrial -2 -1% 31%
2F96HO
T12 CC Commercial 9 2% 86%
T12 ERS Commercial 26 5% 97%
T12 CC Industrial 0 0% 45%
T12 ERS Industrial 14 3% 93%* A positive Delta LCC implies a LCC savings whereas a negative number implies an increase in LCC.** % ballasts with reduced life-cycle costs (winners).*** 4F32T8 ERS ballast with Dual Switching includes a $10 incremental increase in purchase price.
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Table 4.13 Summary of Payback Sensitivity using AEO 1999 Low Growth Forecast
Product Class Design
Option
Sector Median
Payback
Period (yrs)
% With Payback
Less Than 15 yrs
1F40
T12 CC Commercial 27.8 24
T12 ERS Commercial 6.7 92
T8 ERS Commercial 2.8 99
2F40
T12 CC Commercial 11.6 66
T12 ERS Commercial 5.7 95
T8 ERS Commercial 3.3 99
3F40
Tandem-Wired T12 CC Commercial 10.6 72T12 ERS Commercial 6.7 93
T8 ERS Commercial 3.3 99
Not Tandem-Wired T12 CC Commercial 12.3 64
T12 ERS Commercial 3.5 99
T8 ERS Commercial 0.0 100
4F40
T12 CC Commercial 10.0 76
T12 ERS Commercial 5.1 96
Dual Switching T8 ERS Commercial 2.0 100
w/o Dual Switching T8 ERS Commercial 0.4 100
2F96
T12 EIS Commercial 6.1 93
T12 EIS Industrial 9.1 83
2F96HO
T12 CC Commercial 2.3 98
T12 ERS Commercial 2.5 99
T12 CC Industrial 6.0 73
T12 ERS Industrial 3.2 99
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