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Wildfire,
Creating a Policy-Window
A.van Gulik
M.Mulder
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Contents
Introduction
National Safety Strategy
Risk-assesment
Regional Risk-mapping
Modelling the Risk
Procesmanagement in
modelling the scenario
Next Steps
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Introduction
Risk-societyRM
RP
80 20
20 80
Response Capacity
Riskanalysis
Activity
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Riskmanagement
Analyse risks in order to make credible
scenarios and recommend effective steps
to balance Probability, Impact and
Response.
Ad the same time create awareness about
the rest-impact of risks in society
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National Safety Strategy (2006)
Risk = Probability x Impact
Riskmapping
All Hazard Approach,
Inventarisation, analysis, scenariobuilding
Capacity-planning, All through Safety-Chain
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Impact
Probability
WPF
normal
structure-fire
Large
Railaccident
BLEVE
Blackout C.I.
Wildfire ?
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Our Partners
Fire Brigades
Landowners
Land-users
Local communities
Several ministeries Provinces
Terrain-managers
Recreational sector
Police, Ambulance-sector ..
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The Scenario
Uncontrollable Wildfire
Hoogspanning
Vitens
Verzorgings
tehuis
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Probability
Fire-triangle
Fault tree analysis
Include means of
response
UncontrollableWildfire
Fuel FDI Ignition
Delayed
Response
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Urban Rural Interface
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Response Failure
Bestrijdingstactiek/techniek
Onvoldoende (p=0,35)
Bluswater niet aanwezig bij brongebied
(p=0,5)WTS functioneert niet
Onvoldoende Bluswater
Munitie/explosieven aanw.
(p=0,05)
Terrein niet berijdbaar
(p=0,25)
Wegwerkzaamheden (p=0,01)
Tegenstroomse evacuatie (p=0,05)
Toegang onvoldoende (p=0,5)
Ontoegankelijk terrein
Moeilijke Bereikbaarheid
Late ontdekking (p=0,5)
Late reactietijd (p=0,1)
Niet bereiken RAC (p=0,01)
RAC onbekwaam (p=0,19)
Technische Fout (p=0,02)
Menselijke Fout (p=0,2)
Onv. OpleidingOnv. Ervaring
Onv. Overzicht/inzicht incident
Late Alarmering
Foute Alarmering
Foute beslissing (H)OVD (p=0,35)
Late Opschaling
Not enough engines in time (p=0,5)
3e Orde2e Orde1e Orde
Wrong decision CoS
P = 0,35
Wrong tactics/technics
P = 0,35
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P = 4% annual
P = 54% in dry period
P = 41% with maximised
response capacity
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P = 96% !!
P = 50%
P = 40%
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Impact
Multiple use of space
No clear responsability
Californie/Portugal/Greece
Small Fire, Large Impact
Fast large-scale evacuation
No means of specialised capacity, no accurate
respons
Schiphol
Volendam
Enschede
Hotel Polen
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Next
Wildfire is a specialism
Capacity analysis
Expertise centre
Study of Impact
Get the partners to work
Political decision making
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