11
Long Range Decision Long Range Decision Support SystemSupport System- - Design Overview Design Overview
- Institutional Knowledge - Institutional Knowledge-Issues unresolved-Issues unresolved
Transport Modeling & Software Development Transport Modeling & Software Development
88thth April 2005 April 2005
Bharat SalhotraBharat Salhotra
[email protected]@gmail.com
22
Transportation & IRTransportation & IR
• Key Facets– Network Industry
• System wide view is critical
– Diversity of Traffic / Operations• Capacity Implications
– Dynamic • Need for databases to be updated
– Large # of Interrelated variables
33
ANSWERING QUESTIONS IN SEQUENTIAL ORDER IS ANSWERING QUESTIONS IN SEQUENTIAL ORDER IS NOT POSSIBLE DUE TO INTERDEPENDENCIESNOT POSSIBLE DUE TO INTERDEPENDENCIES
Interdependent variables of network planning
Solution:
Develop a DSS with three objectives
Model interdependencies at micro levels
Generalize interdependencies at Macro Level
Assess bundle of Investments based on environment
1
2
3
•Traffic /Train Mix
•Train speed differential
•Capacity of network
•Introduction of high-speed
trains•# of yards/ traction
change points
•Network quality
•Throughput
•Complexity in Route structure of freight
trains
•Quality Standards for freight traffic/ passenger
traffic
•Capacity increase of marshalling yards
•# of stops for passenger trains
•Deterioration of infrastructure
•Types of Locos/Wagons
•Market Demand
44
System Optimization
vs.
Subsystem Optimization
55
Need for LRDSSNeed for LRDSS
• Provides important desktop information for planners / decision-makers for: – Investment planning/project screening– Market analysis– Financial impact analysis– Funds Requirement
66
LRDSS: Salient FeaturesLRDSS: Salient Features
• Integrative Character: – Interdisciplinary– System wide Analysis– Simultaneous /Sequential Analysis
• Improvements in Technology/ Operating Policy• Commodity Flows • Routing Plans
77
LRDSS: Salient FeaturesLRDSS: Salient Features
• Customized GIS Interface– Integration of different data by location – Evaluate alternative routes – Exhibit pattern of traffic flows
• Strong Decision Support – Prioritize Investments – Position Services to optimize market share. – Analyze Funds required by key year
88
LRDSS : Salient FeaturesLRDSS : Salient Features
• Strong Decision Support – Strategic Level Tool– “What-if” Analysis (“With/Without”)– “Sensitivity” Analysis – Information based & Data Driven. – Iterative Evaluation– Modular Design
99
LRDSS for Decision SupportLRDSS for Decision Support
PLANNING PROCESS
Models to support different time horizons
Five Year Plans
Strategic Level
Annual Plans
Integrated LRDSS ...
BCAMDAF, FPM
FPM
1010
Broad Structure of ModelBroad Structure of Model
Traffic Assignment
Market Analysis
Traffic Forecasting
Cost Benefit Analysis
Supply AnalysisSupply Analysis
Demand Analysis
Demand Analysis
Financial Forecasting
Facility Performance
1111
1212
Facility PerformanceFacility Performance
LINKS TERMINALS
SUPPLY SIDE
+
NETWORK
1313
Rail Performance Model Rail Performance Model Determine ability to carry trafficDetermine ability to carry traffic
LINK TYPELINK TYPE
TRAIN TYPETRAIN TYPE
CostCurve
SPEED & COST CALCULATOR
TRAFFIC
OPERATING RULE
SpeedCurve
1414
1515
RAILS OverviewRAILS Overview
• Two Modules :– Train Performance Calculator (TPC)– Train Dispatch Simulator (TDS)
• TPC :– Single Train running on a section – Level of interference = 0– Running determined by track profile and train
1616
Train Performance CalculatorTrain Performance Calculator
– Uses empirical formulae – Follows TE/Speed Curve, braking curves of
locomotives– Rolling resistance of coaches– Train resistance, grade resistance, air
resistance based on Davis Co-efficient– Train treated as a series of points
1717
Train Performance Train Performance CalculatorCalculator
TRAIN PERFORMANCE CALCULATOR
TRACK PROFILE
TRAIN PROFILE
LOCOMOTIVE
COACH
WAGON
RUN TIMESFuel ConsumptionSpeed Profile
1818
TPC Output (Track Profile)TPC Output (Track Profile)
1919
Train Performance Train Performance
2020
TRAIN DESPATCH TRAIN DESPATCH SIMULATORSIMULATOR
Scenario
Train Types File
Station File Run Times File
Schedule File
Special Events File
Track FileSet of Trains
Parameter File
Simulation results
2121
Train Dispatch SimulatorTrain Dispatch Simulator
• Simulates actual train operations – Dispatches trains to resolve conflicts– Allocates resources dynamically– Non priority based, route seeking dispatch– Non Optimizing algorithm
2222
2323
Train Dispatch SimulatorTrain Dispatch Simulator
• Event based• Useful for analyzing alternative line
configurations– location of LOOPS, CROSSINGS
• Establishment of Train schedules– departure/arrival/halts of trains
• Examination of Capacity Issues– Identification of Conflicts– Meets and Overtakes
2424
SimulationSimulation
• Calibration:• Within 5% of actual situation on field.
• Congestion & Capacity Modeling– Traffic increased incrementally to obtain
• Congestion Graphs
• Estimated Line Capacity
• Scenario Analysis:• Impact of failures
• Horsepower to Trailing Load ratios
• Passenger Train Halts
2525
Output from FPMOutput from FPM
• Simulation results of 17 links– transit times & congestion curves by train
type & Link Type– impact of failures (track, signaling, wagons)– capacity based on simulation (not charting)
• Cost Data– working expenses by train type
2626
Baroda Surat Section Cost for different types of Passenger Trains
170
190
210
230
250
270
290
310
330
1 35 44 53 61 80
Trains per Day
Lo
ng
Te
rm L
ine
Ha
ul V
ari
ab
le C
os
t (
Rs
.) p
er
10
00
GT
KM
Shatabdi
SlowPassenger
Rajdhani
MailExpress
CONVERSIONINTO COST FUNCTION
2727
2828
Market AnalysisMarket Analysis and and
Traffic ForecastTraffic Forecast
DEMAND SIDE MODELING
2929
Mode Share:Mode Share: Key DeterminantsKey Determinants(from SURVEY)(from SURVEY)
• Volumes • High volumes (>1 lakh TPA) = high rail share if few destinations
• Channel Structure• Flat distribution channels, bulk buyers favor rail movement.
• Flow rate• Raw materials Production line
• Finished goods Consumption Center.
• Lead length• Long lead traffic favors Rail
• Business Service Requirements• JIT ,Reduced Order Quantity, Reliability• Single to multiple suppliers
3030
Key Factors to SuccessKey Factors to Success
• Core Factors– Reliability, Availability, Price and Transit Time
• Desirable Factors– Connectivity, Product Suitability, Loss/Damage,
Customer Information– Adaptability, Customer Friendliness, Negotiability,
Access to Decision Makers– Ease of Payment & Claim Processing Time
3131
Market Share AnalysisMarket Share Analysis
3232
Traffic Forecasting ModuleTraffic Forecasting Module
• Objectives:– Determine Production & Consumption
Functions by Commodity for TAZs– Forecast Origin Destination Flows by
• Commodity• Key Years (2006-07 & 2011-12)
– Identify high growth areas• loading• unloading terminals• Origin Destination Routes
3333
Traffic Analysis ZonesTraffic Analysis Zones
3434
MethodologyMethodology
• Different models used for different commodities– GAMS Linear Programming Model
• Assigns traffic by minimizing transportation cost.
– “Furness” Trip Generation Model• Generates OD flows based on movement pattern in the
base year
– Factoring• OD flows are projected based on growth rates.
3535
# OF TAZs/TERMINALS REPRESENTED BY TYPE
TAZ/TERMINAL TYPE NUMBERFertilizer Plants 79Thermal Power Plants 41Refineries/Specialized Oil Sidings 357Iron ore/Limestone loading points for steel plants 57Coal Depots/Sidings 113Cement Plants 134Steel Plants 42Foodgrain Loading Points 284Iron Ore Loading points for Export 15Non Specialized Terminals/Goodsheds 433
Total 1555
Note: Total number of terminals exceed TAZs (746) due to double
counting w here there is more than one terminal in a TAZ.
Source: LRDSS commodity forecast Analysis
3636
Traffic Assignment ModuleTraffic Assignment Module
DEMAND + SUPPLYMODELING
3737
TrafficTraffic AssignmentAssignment ModuleModule
• Operation Research based Freight Network Equilibrium Model.
• Objective function: Minimize total cost of carrying traffic– Assign OD flows on paths using least impedance.
• (= Σ congestion cost on links/nodes )
– Each path consists of series of links and nodes.– Path Cost = aggregated cost of traffic movement over each
link and node.
3838
Traffic Assignment ModuleTraffic Assignment Module
• Basic Inputs to the Model:– I : Demand Side
• Existing and Future Traffic– Commodity wise flows between pairs of points– Traffic for 2001’02, 2006-’07, 2011-’12
– II: Supply Side• Existing and Future Network
– Sections as well as their Cost Characteristics– Stations as well as their Cost Characteristics
3939
Network DatabasesNetwork Databases
• Two distinct database representing IR network – Railline Database– Railnode database
• 1796 links & 1531 nodes for base case
• Nodes Database contains information like TAZ, Transshipment point, Rail terminal/yard, Traction change point, reversal etc.
4040
Attributes of a SectionAttributes of a Section
4141
Methodology for AssignmentMethodology for Assignment
• Base Year: Assignment on Preferred Paths
• Future Years: – Assignment on both Preferred & Shortest
Paths– Assignment with committed works
• Sequential/Simultaneous
4242
Analysis of TAM ResultsAnalysis of TAM Results
• Outputs– Commodity wise traffic on each link.– ODs that use a particular link.– Lowest Cost Route path between pairs of
points.– Utilization of each Traction Point.
• These reports can be compared for alternative scenarios.
4343
4444
4545
Variables HandledVariables Handled
• Data Size & Spread– 900 * 900 * 10 OD matrix elements– 15,000 Rail Paths
• Each Path has average of 50 links – Each link has commodity wise congestion function
– 3 sets of data, by key year
4646
TAM-Conceptual designTAM-Conceptual design
• Replicate Shipper’s Behavior– What commodity from where to where?
• Replicate Carriers Behavior– What commodity, what route, what train type
• Non Linear Programming Optimization Solver– MINOS
4747
Sub Modules of TAMSub Modules of TAM• Network Processor
– create a logical multi modal network• access /egress links,• transshipment links, traction change points, nodes
– Output consists of Forward star data structure to be used as input to k path algorithm
• Path generator (K-Short)– creates shortest paths between two O-D Pairs– Input to Solver
4848
• Carrier Input Processor– Generates MINOS input file – Represents full specifications of carrier model
with unit costs specified as a ‘real valued’ function of path flows (non linear)
• Post processor – Interprets MINOS solution file.– Interfaces with GIS – Query based GIS interface allows graphical
display of bottleneck links, flows etc.
Sub Modules of TAMSub Modules of TAM
4949
GIS & LRDSSGIS & LRDSS
• Avenue based Path Editor used to check paths generated by “kshort” algorithm
• transshipments, traction change, reversals• create new paths via certain given stations
• User Interface to facilitate Data Analysis through – Data browser– Query Builder– Chart generator
5050
Path Editor to display/define routesPath Editor to display/define routes
5151
Path EditorPath Editor
5252
5353
Cost Benefit Analysis & Cost Benefit Analysis & Investment PlanningInvestment Planning
5454
Utility of LRDSSUtility of LRDSS
• LRDSS is a powerful tool for enabling a pre-feasibility analysis.
• Results are only indicative– micro modeling to gauge impact of specific
investment/policy initiatives. – availability of financial resources needs to be
matched with priority of projects.
5555
Phase IIIPhase III
• Strengthen existing model with – Terminal Analysis– Multi-Modal Traffic Analysis– Benchmarking Operations
• Improve Information availability on desktop of decision-makers
• Interconnect
5656
Terminal Analysis ModuleTerminal Analysis Module
– Objective• Develop a better understanding of terminal
operations• Use Process modeling to estimate detentions
and impact of such detentions• Evaluate investment options to minimize
detentions and improve efficiency at terminals
– Simulation Model instead of a Numerical Model
5757
Stylized DiagramsStylized Diagrams
• Terminal representation using six standard features– Entry Exit Points – Support Yards – Customer Sidings– Platforms– Intersections– Connections
5858
Facilities Database Facilities Database
• Associated with a Facility are 3 types of fields• Time related fields• Capacity related fields• Resource related fields
• E.g. a support yard would have fields specifying • Examination Time (Average, Minimum, Maximum)• Shunting Engine Attach/Detach Time TIME• “Waiting for Train Engine” Time TIME• Number of Tracks CAPACITY• Number of examination gangs RESOURCE
5959
Trains Database Trains Database
– Brain Train• Trains have an ID, type and commodity
associated • Arrival Day and Time• Predefined Route assigned to the train
– Route Descriptions• START at ENTRY POINT• Sequence of FACILITIES a train has to USE• Quantum of RESOURCE & TIME required • END at EXIT point
6060
6161
Tuglakabad Terminal
R&DCONCOR
DNRCV
DNCLAS
SDNDEPT
UPDEPT
UPCLAS
S UPRCV
BTPPSUPP
DAIRY
BALLAST
DIESEL
ICDCONCOR
ELECTRIC
MINERAL
SAIL
TATA
DCD
BTPP
PFINT
NX-CR
NX-DA
TKDTKD
6262
SimulationSimulation
• Terminal Process model simulates– Movement of trains on routes through Terminal– Delays of trains due to limited resources– Delays due to crew change– Loading/unloading at customer siding– Interaction with passenger trains sharing
facilities with goods trains– Disruptions at facilities
• User Interface
6363
Model OutputsModel Outputs
• Train delays (process times and non-process times) by train
• Assignment of delay to– facility – resource
• Activity summary of utilization of all of the facilities and resources, including
• time spent in examination, loading/unloading• track usage
• Feed investment analysis
6464
Traffic Growth Rate by Commodity & OD
Freight Flows in Corridor
Mode Split Model
Target Year Total Flows
Qualitative Preference data
Target Year Rail Container Flows
Operational Statistics
Infrastructure Requirements
Cost Benefit Analysis
Multimodal Corridor Analysis ModelMultimodal Corridor Analysis Model
6565
Mode Split ModelMode Split Model
• Parameters– Price– Transit Time– Service Quality Index (Reliability, Availability,
Frequency, Loss & Damage)– Product Suitability
• Form– Cobb Douglas
6666
Multimodal Corridor Analysis ModelMultimodal Corridor Analysis Model
– Estimate Total Traffic
– Estimate Operational Requirements (Throughput, Trains, Lifts etc.)
– Estimate Capital Requirements (Infrastructure, Rolling Stock, Equipment)
– Estimate Cash Flows
– Calculate IRR
6767
Resource RequirementsResource Requirements
• Terminal Resources – Land– Rail Lines– Equipment (stackers, trailers, gantry cranes)– Gates– C&W
• Rolling Stock
6868
Scenario AnalysisScenario Analysis
• Assess different Investment alternatives– Do minimum (only soft changes)– De-Bottlenecking– Full Fledged Corridor
• Assess Pricing Strategies
• Assess Impact of Service Levels
6969
Interconnect-LRDSS & Other IR Interconnect-LRDSS & Other IR DatabasesDatabases
MIS(annual
summariese.g. Traffic)
FOIS(annual
summariese.g. op. stats)
Planning Data(Project Data)
Engineering Data
(Improvementsand Unit Costs)Railway Board/
LRDSSDatabases(Scenario
Data)Financial
Data(e.g. budgets)
Zonal Railway Data(Line and Section Data)
7070
LRDSSData
Storage
Intranet
Tape Storage
LRDSS ClientLRDSS ClientLRDSS Client
LRDSS Client LRDSS Client
LRDSS ClientCDROM Reader
CDROM Reader
GIS/Trans E-mail and FTP Site
ScannerPlotter
IR Web Page
CDWORMWriter
CDROMReader
CDROMReader
CDROMReader
LRDSS Site Componentto be Acquired
Componentto be Deleted
v
RAILSSimulation
Module
LRDSS MDV Clients
CDROMReader
LRDSS LAN
Current LRDSS Architecture
v
7171
LRDSSData
Storage(Oracle)
Internet
LRDSS ClientLRDSS ClientLRDSS Client
LRDSS Client LRDSS Client
LRDSS MDV Client
CDROM Reader
ScannerPlotter
CDWORMWriter
CDROM Reader CDROM Reader CDROM Reader
Pilot LRDSS Clientat Zonal Railway
CDROM Reader
CDROM Reader
RAILSSimulation
Module
RAILSSimulation
Module
BCAMlite
Railway Board LAN
LRDSS MDV Clients
OtherIR
Databases(FOIS, TMS,
MIS)
Proposed Short Term LRDSS Architecture
7272
LRDSSData
Storage(Oracle+
SDE)
Internetor WAN
LRDSS ClientLRDSS ClientLRDSS Client
LRDSS MDV Client LRDSS Client(Expert User)
LRDSS MDV Client
CDWORMWriter
LRDSS Clientsat Zonal Railways
RAILSSimulation
Module
RAILSSimulation
Module
GIS/Trans E-mail and FTP Site
IR Web Page
IR FTP Site
LRDSS MDV Clients
MoreMDV
Clients
with CDROM Readers
LRDSS Unit
LRDSS MDV Clients
OtherIR
Databases(MIS+FOIS+
Planning)
Other ZonalRailways
OtherZonal
RailwaysDatabases(incl. GIS)
RAILSSimulation
Module
BCAMlite
BCAMlite
RAILSSimulation
Module
Railway Board LAN
Proposed Medium Term Architecture (1 ½ - 3 years)
7373
KEY AREAS FOR KEY AREAS FOR COLLABORATIONCOLLABORATION
• LINE CAPACITY SIMULATOR
• TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT MODEL– PATH GENERATOR– OPTIMIZATION ALGORITHM
• PASSENGER TERMINAL DESIGN
7474
THANK YOUTHANK YOU
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