8/2/2019 01 Kalyan Chakravarthy - YES BANK
1/15
Changing economic outlook -Implications for Agriculture in
Africa
Kalyan ChakravarthyYES BANK
Cape TownJune 15, 2009
Agribusiness Forum
2009
8/2/2019 01 Kalyan Chakravarthy - YES BANK
2/15
Scope
Global agriculture scenario
Situation in Africa
Key inferences
8/2/2019 01 Kalyan Chakravarthy - YES BANK
3/15
Population is on the rise
8/2/2019 01 Kalyan Chakravarthy - YES BANK
4/15
Population is on the rise (contd)
Global populationincreases by200,000 people perday
75 mn Chineseurbanise every 15months
8/2/2019 01 Kalyan Chakravarthy - YES BANK
5/15
The world isurbanizing
Metropoles are the nodes
of the 21th century networkeconomy
Knowledge and creativityare the crusial assets in thenetwork economy
ICT is key driving factor
Agro production is in transition towardsurban agriculture
The distinction between urbanand rural areas within metropoles isvanishing
Spatial organisation of industrial agroproduction systems is still based ontraditional land dependant forms
8/2/2019 01 Kalyan Chakravarthy - YES BANK
6/15
Food consumption pattern ischanging
Rising global population and rising
GDP per capita is pushing up
overall food demand
Urbanisation and a newly-forming
middle class especially in China
and India has resulted in shifting
food habits and dietary
preferences
Increased demand for high value
processed foods, meat, fruits and
vegetables
Meat consumption in China hasincreased four fold (from 10kg percapita per annum to 40kg in lessthan a decade)
Dairy, Meat, Fish,Fresh FruitJuices,Beverages
Convenienc
e Foods
Diet/Function
al/Organic
Foods
Snacks/Prepare
d Meals
CarbohydrateStaples
Surviving Mass
Market
Convenience
Food Service
Snacking
Quality
Hygiene
High
Technology
Africa (Sub-
Sahara)
India, China,Latin America
Eastern
Europe
N. America, Japan,W. Europe,Australia
8/2/2019 01 Kalyan Chakravarthy - YES BANK
7/15
and there has been a sharp decline in
the availability of key commodities
8/2/2019 01 Kalyan Chakravarthy - YES BANK
8/15
and commensurate increase in
food prices Global food capacity reduced by explosion in biofuels with oil price
increase Diversion of corn for ethanol production in recent years (the >100$/barrel era) Oil prices have firmed up again (>70 $) Biofuels set to consume 30% of US corn by 2010
Credit crisis Credit is at a premium and has impact on capital formation in agriculture in the
short/medium term Agri infrastructure projects Project finance SMES in Agriculture Business loans Farmers Crop loans
Not as badly affected as other sectors and long term prospect for investments in
agriculture sector looks good
Climate change Global food productivity reduced as environment changed Water security a major issue Continuous droughts (in Australia, India and Africa)
8/2/2019 01 Kalyan Chakravarthy - YES BANK
9/15
Per capita arable land availabilityhas been an issue
8/2/2019 01 Kalyan Chakravarthy - YES BANK
10/15
Nutrition security is a cause ofconcern
8/2/2019 01 Kalyan Chakravarthy - YES BANK
11/15
8/2/2019 01 Kalyan Chakravarthy - YES BANK
12/15
Africa is well positioned to meetthese challenges
53 countries with unique valuepropositions
Land mass greater than USA,China and Europe combined
Uncrowded space ofopportunities for water, land
Demographic drivers stronger thanany other nation (including Indiaand China)
Important trading partner for theWest
Africa provides 18% of the USA oilsupply compared with 16% fromthe Middle East
Relatively insulated from globalcredit crisis
8/2/2019 01 Kalyan Chakravarthy - YES BANK
13/15
Africa is well positioned to meetthese challenges (contd)
8/2/2019 01 Kalyan Chakravarthy - YES BANK
14/15
Unleashing the true potential of AfricaKey imperatives
Optimization of natural resources Traditional farming methods may look sustainable but are often
not
Not just the quantum of production but the nature andquality of production would be important Integration with the demand side of the food chain
Education and training of all key stakeholders in sustainable
farming practices
Adaptation to deal with extreme climate conditions willbe vital
8/2/2019 01 Kalyan Chakravarthy - YES BANK
15/15
Thank you!
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]Top Related