PowerPoint Presentation2011/12/14 CCC @ CWB
P = Probability = {< I >}2
2011/12/14 CCC @ CWB
Early Middle Late
Theory (Self-Organizing Spinodal Model) predicts 3 distinct
temporal regimes for Gutenberg-Richter statistical laws prior to a
large earthquake (“Early, Middle, Late”; Rundle et al., PAGEOPH,
2000)
Data from 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan earthquake (C.C. Chen, GJI,
2003)
2011/12/14 CCC @ CWB
2011/12/14 CCC @ CWB
Data assimilation in the Pattern Informatics of Seismicity can
proceed by analysis cycles, which possibly reflect “earthquake
cycles.” In each analysis cycle, observations of the past state in
the data space are combined with the results from a PI model to
produce a PI hotspot map, which is considered as 'the best'
estimate of the current state of the earthquake fault system. This
is called the analysis step. Essentially, the analysis step tries
to balance the uncertainty in the seismicity data and in the PI
parameters. ‘The best' PI model/hotspot map is then advanced in
time and its result may become the forecast for the next
analysis/earthquake cycle.
2011/12/14 CCC @ CWB
2011/12/14 CCC @ CWB
2011/12/14 CCC @ CWB
What we have observed is some kind of spatial cooperation between
main shock and aftershocks existing actually before the occurrence
of main shock, since we have derived such correlation (PI) patterns
from the fluctuation in seismicity before great earthquakes.
2011/12/14 CCC @ CWB
