(WTO)

(CGE) ORANI 20082009

()

CGE ORANI

C2-63

(World Tourism Organization WTO)2000

8

World Tourism and Travel

Council WTTC

2010 GDP 11.6%

World Tourism and Travel Council WTTC

2008 197

GDP 4.7% 54 7

5.2%

( 1) 96

164 8,507 44.36%

() 98 8,614 26.61%

116 6,380 31.39%

2008/12/15

C2-64

1 96

()

737,638 318,098 110,644

87,597 71,663 206,028

823,272 598,853

96

Tour Taiwan Years 2008-20092008-2009

2008

-

(CGE)20082009

(2003)

(2003)

C2-65

(2004)

ORANI Melbourn

(Input-Output

Tables)

CGE

CGE

() CGE

(general equilibrium theorem)

(neo-classical school) Walras Walras Law

1930 Leontief ( IO)

IO

1950 Arrow and Debreu (1954)

1960 Johansen (1960) CGE

Scarf (1967) Scarf (Scarfs algorithm)

CGE

CGE Johansen 1960

CGE

CGE

CGE

C2-66

CGE

() CGE

CGE

Walras

CGE Armington

(intra-industry trade, cross hauling)

CGE

()()

()

C2-67

CGE

Walras

ORANI

ORANI Monash P.B. Dixon

IMPACT 1970

ORANI Johansen

(percentage change)

(separability)

(Calibration)

(Closure) GEMPACK

(Multi-step)

(1) (2)

()(3) ()

(4) (5)

C2-68

ORANI CGE

1.

2. Armington

3.

4.

5.

6.

7. Johansen

ORANI IO IO GNP

ORANI

ORANI

ORANI

2004

161

WTO

C2-69

95

96

(161)17

(2005)

-

(161)26

23

2

(161 )

95 96

C2-70

3

(161 )

()

()

(2005)-

C2-71

96

( 4)

(2005)-

( 5) 96

ORANI

4 96 (%)

39.29 9.26 9.53 11.65 1.06 29.2 100

50.68 13.26 6.51 3.65 2.5 23.4 100

32.52 5.38 8.1 9.51 0.82 43.67 100

40.61 5.47 1.77 1.76 1.12 49.27 100

96

5 (%)

7.3

23.4

2.7

4.6

0.7

14.8

0.2

0.5

0.3

0.1

2

() 9.5

100

(2005)-

C2-72

CGE

CGE

CGE CGE

CGE

.

CGE

CGE

ORANI

TAIGEM

(1999)

CGE

(rigidity)

C2-73

CGE CGE

-

2008-2009 2008

2015 (2007-2009 )

(CGE) ORANI 96

(2005)

-

1. 2. 3. 4.

2015 (2007-2009 )

96 10 5.

6.

1

C2-74

CRESH CRETH

161

ORANI

1

93 161

C2-75

6

GDP

GDP0.382%

0.168%0.045%0.033%

GDP0.665%

GDP0.18%

6

0.293 0.131 0.034 0.025 0 0

0.937 0.442 0.111 0.075 1.744 0.199

-0.292 -0.138 -0.029 -0.021 0.162 0.05

0.382 0.168 0.045 0.033 0.665 0.18 GDP

-0.08 -0.035 -0.007 -0.004 0.022 0.023

0.311 0.134 0.032 0.022 -0.211 -0.177

-0.363 -0.163 -0.048 -0.037 -0.256 -0.177

-0.097 -0.05 -0.009 -0.008 0.069 0.021

-0.309 -0.147 -0.032 -0.023 0.092 0.017

C2-76

161 (

7 )

13.895%

6.314% 2.731% 1.499% 19.211%

6.333%

7

5.832 1.908 1.539 0.443 9.945 2.456

4.207 1.77 2.731 0.397 19.211 1.43

0.617 0.275 0.097 0.053 0.546 0.115

1.585 0.546 0.298 0.116 1.912 0.331

2.967 1.152 0.249 0.248 2.72 1.24

0.538 0.248 0.126 0.053 0.971 0.235

1.515 0.45 0.178 0.11 1.547 0.6

0.143 0.21 0.072 0.037 0.175 -0.03

0.205 0.09 0.024 0.018 -0.629 -0.148

13.895 6.314 1.815 1.499 16.024 6.333

0.898 0.623 0.087 0.087 0.821 0.734

0.152 0.093 0.019 0.015 -0.243 -0.142

2.064 0.948 0.245 0.206 2.759 0.971

0.097 0.078 0.025 0.029 -5.381 -1.718

1.036 0.105 0.132 0.082 -1.704 0.722

0.205 0.18 0.02 0.069 -0.033 0.055

3.394 0.649 0.315 0.068 5.614 1.273

0.356 0.953 0.039 0.219 0.037 -0.662

0.55 0.124 0.055 0.038 -0.23 -0.125

0.007 0.077 -0.002 0.006 0.341 -0.467

0.673 0.097 0.068 0.023 -0.625 -0.091

0.57 0.175 0.058 0.084 -0.564 -0.001

C2-77

0.437693 0.121 0.049 0.022 1.12 -1.747

0.509 0.203 0.054 0.113 -0.474 0.149

0.275 0.099 0.026 0.064 1.125 0.643

-0.103 0.002 -0.01 0.001 2.683 0.496

161 ( 8

)

8

26.163 6.11 5.267 1.385 66.4671 8.2444

4.279 1.771 2.835 0.401 35.3912 2.3902

0.35 0.146 0.07 0.035 0.8994 0.1985

0.45 0.187 0.09 0.045 1.1562 0.2551

2.98 1.141 0.24 0.252 3.2389 1.5327

0.438 0.196 0.123 0.043 1.5599 0.2628

1.746 0.465 0.206 0.107 2.6522 0.6289

0.026 0.105 0.051 0.023 0.6603 0.141

0.784 0.195 0.103 0.052 1.3334 0.2719

8.715 3.758 1.036 0.847 13.7078 5.0662

2.807 1.933 0.249 0.245 3.3432 2.3963

1.496 0.637 0.145 0.047 1.8436 0.7524

3.12 1.345 0.371 0.303 4.9076 1.8138

2.648 1.175 0.434 0.388 5.7808 1.7197

0.05 0.073 0.004 0.007 0.0628 0.0882

0.115 0.449 0.014 0.411 0.6204 0.9461

4.365 0.842 0.407 0.091 5.1218 1.0261

0.191 0.001 0.021 0.001 0.0013 0.0026

0.19

0.167

0.027

0.073

0.021

0.018

0.027

0.073

0.03

0.0809

0.06

0.1618

0.309 0.007 0.032 0.007 0.0074 0.0149

0.286 0.075 0.031 0.075 0.083 0.166

0.25 0.094 0.029 0.094 0.1038 0.2075

C2-78

0.369 0.212 0.039 0.212 0.233 0.466

0.158 0.126 0.015 0.126 0.1386 0.2772

0.197 0.009 0.022 0.009 0.0099 0.0197

-0.043 -0.007 0.005 -0.002

-0.146 -0.014 -0.045 -0.006

-0.415 -0.047 -0.139 -0.027

-0.018 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001

-0.082 -0.009 -0.019 -0.006

( 9 )

9

0.880 0.141 0.132 0.030 3.412 0.270

-0.227

-0.191

-0.087

-0.072

-0.024

-0.018

-0.016

-0.013

0.890

0.891

0.247

0.244

-0.190 -0.072 -0.019 -0.013 0.809 0.223

-0.112 -0.043 -0.014 -0.007 0.783 0.233

-0.230 -0.086 -0.019 -0.015 1.121 0.299

-0.098 -0.053 -0.009 -0.009 0.910 0.244

-0.294 -0.108 -0.029 -0.020 1.184 0.327

0.338 0.047 0.052 0.021 1.628 0.396

C2-79

-0.298 -0.117 -0.033 -0.023 0.644 0.169

0.674 0.505 0.054 0.059 1.597 0.875

0.320 0.140 0.028 0.003 1.152 0.411

0.434 0.199 0.055 0.049 2.281 0.734

3.156 1.399 0.520 0.465 6.992 2.086

-0.940 -0.057 -0.121 -0.071 2.078 -0.353

-0.211 0.098 -0.022 0.163 1.001 0.617

3.502 0.452 0.312 0.012 10.436 2.450

-0.217 -0.444 -0.024 -0.102 0.843 0.584

-0.578 -0.262 -0.062 -0.042 0.667 0.258

-6.906 -1.283 -0.771 0.892 0.473 0.515

-0.445 -0.174 -0.047 -0.032 0.885 0.250

-0.441 -0.174 -0.047 -0.028 0.924 0.269

-5.505 -3.311 -0.591 1.086 -0.049 1.157

-0.177 -0.054 -0.019 0.035 0.944 0.362

-0.355 -0.085 -0.038 0.060 0.175 2.994

-1.554 -0.454 -0.172 -0.054 -0.927 -0.111

-0.21 -0.022 -0.072 -0.014

-0.04 -0.004 -0.012 -0.003

-0.222 -0.024 -0.075 -0.015

-0.24 -0.026 -0.084 -0.016

-0.038 0.007 -0.022 -0.003

492.253% 23.553%

( 10 )

96

C2-80

10

74.726 17.260 15.104 3.926 492.253 26.032 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.824 0.330 0.133 0.072 0.016 -0.068 0.653 0.266 0.111 0.059 0.346 0.035 3.586 1.340 0.274 0.297 3.583 1.780 0.499 0.213 0.117 0.045 0.603 0.025 2.301 0.545 0.264 0.124 2.305 0.452 0.031 0.112 0.054 0.024 0.580 0.114 4.245 1.134 0.531 0.279 2.660 0.540 -1.894 -1.082 -0.390 -0.327 -2.487 -1.335 2.050 1.362 0.178 0.172 1.822 1.512 3.071 1.282 0.288 0.090 3.322 1.514 2.735 1.166 0.321 0.260 3.682 1.401 19.472 8.063 2.831 2.460 23.553 6.908 -2.282 0.127 -0.315 -0.178 3.614 -2.051 0.063 0.725 0.008 0.704 0.425 1.444 1.581 0.468 0.158 0.075 -2.472 -0.759 0.024 -0.811 0.001 -0.195 -1.505 1.952 1.356 -0.022 0.134 0.075 -0.569 0.151 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.410 -0.022 0.041 0.001 -0.033 0.015 0.441 -0.013 0.040 0.118 0.144 0.094 5.417 -0.479 0.534 3.442 -3.355 3.798 0.202 0.133 0.020 0.206 0.214 0.463 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 5.626 2.365 0.562 0.482 -6.130 -1.262

-0.165 -0.019 -0.119 -0.018

-0.027 -0.006 -0.023 -0.005

-1.112 -0.526 -0.335 -0.075

-0.979 -0.154 -0.558 -0.104

-0.221 -0.025 -0.192 -0.033

C2-81

GDPGDP0.382%0.168%0.045%0.033%

GDP0.665%

GDP0.18%

GDP 0.665%

1993 374 2007 3886

2020

C2-82

(2000)

(1995)

(2003)

31 4 637- 674

(1994) 43 9 1- 5

(2006)

(2008)

(2002)

(2003)

(2002) WTO -

(2003)

(2004)

(2003)

(2006)

(2003)

(2007) -

C2-83

(2000)

(2001)

(2004)

(2007) RDF-5

(2005)-

(2008)-

(2008) 3E -

(2005)

95

96

(2005)-

Arrow, K.J., and Debru, G. (1954), Existence of an equilibrium for a competitive

economy, Econometrica, 22, 265-290.

Clare.A.Gunn (1988), Tourism Planning, Taylor & Francis.

C2-84

Codsi, G., and Pearson, K.R. (1988), GEMPACK: Genaral Purpose Software for

Applied General Equilibium and Other Economic Modelers, Computer Science in

Economics and Management, 1: pp.189-207.

Dixon, P.B., Parmenter, B.R., Sutton, J., and D.P. Vincent, (1982), ORANI: A

Multisectoral Model of the Australian Economy, North-Holland, Armsterdam.

Grado, S.C., Strauss, C.H., and Lord, B.E. (1998), Economic Impacts of Conferences

and Conventions, Journal of Convention and Exhibition Management, 1:1, 19-33.

Johansen, L. (1960), A Multisectoral Model of Economic Growth, Amsterdam,

Noth-Holland Press.

Narayan, Perash Kumer(2003), The Macroeconomic Impact of the IMF

Recommended VAT Policy for the Fiji Economy: Evidence from A CGE Model,

Review of Urban and Regional Development Studies, Nov2003.15(3):226-236.

Serra-Puche, Jaime(1984), A General Equilibrium Model for the Mexican Economy,

Presented at the NBER conference on Applied General Equilibrium Analysis. Ed:

Herbert Scarf and John B. Shoven. NY: Cambridge U. Press.

Schulz, C. N. (1971), Existence, Space and Architecture, N. Y: Praeger Publishers.

C2-85

An Economic-wide Analysis for Stimulating the

Arriving of International Tourists and Business

Travelers -- focus on the Japanese Tourist and China

Market

Jo-Ping Liang Ching-Pin Hung Duu-Hwa Lee

Abstract

According to the WTO analyzing reporter, Tourism has become the prime resource of earning

foreign exchange in many countries. This article uses a comprehensive computable general equilibrium

model named ORANI to stimulate the short-term economic effects in 1. Japan Tourists, 2. Japan

Business Travelers, 3. China Tourists, 4. China Business Travelers and the long-term effects in 5.China

Tourists and Business Travelers, 6.Japan and China Business Travelers which under the government

policies of Tour Taiwan Year 2008-2009 and Taiwan MICE Industry. Results show that in the

short-term, Japan Tourists have more benefits both in macro and industrial economics ; in the long-term,

China Tourists and Business performs better than the short-term as well as Japan and China Business

Travelers.

Key word: CGE modelORANI modelInternational Tourist

C2-86