TRANSHUMANIST

A.V. Turchin

XXI : Nick Bostrom : G.G. Malinetski

Civilizational Transhumanist .

2008

" " .2 :

i. V. Sledzevsky Valery Prajd

: avturchin@mail.ru

Nick Bostrom . 11 G.G. Malinetsky. . 12 30 36 38 1. 39 1. . 39 39 41 56 2. 58 2.1 " ". 59 2.2 64 2.3 66 2.4 . 69 2.5 70 2.6 70 2.7 73 2.8 74 2.9 75 2.10. 75

3. 76 80 , 80 4. . 80 80 83 DNA 84 " " 85 85 86 5. Superdrug 89 6. . copiing (meme ) 92 7. 93 93 96 AI 97 AI 98 " " 98 AI 99 AI "" 99 99 " " 100 AI 101 . AI 101 102 "" 103 AI 104 AI 105 106

AI 107 8. . nanotechnologies . 107 109 . 109 microrobots 110 110 nanotehnological 110 nanorobots 112 nanorobots 114 114 9. 115 supervolcano 115 117 10. . 118 118 , , 121 11. . 122 122 12 . SETI 126 SETI . 129 . 132 . 135 13 . 138 14 . 140 140 142 supervolcanoes 142 146 148

152 153 156 157 158 de gasation 159 160 161 Antropic 161 "" 15 . 164 16 . 166 anthropogenous 166 168 170 . 170 170 171 17 . 172 18 . 173 1 173 173 174 175 175 177 177 178 Preemergencies 179 , 180

Doomsday 181 19 . 182 182 184 187 190 191 191 193 193 194 Doomsday 196 20 . . 206 21 . , 224 22 . 239 23. 244 244 246 249 251 252 253 254 24 . 274 25 . 290 2. . 294 1. . . . 295 298 2. 45. 313

3. . , 313 5. 314 16. () 319 17. 319 23. 321 24. 321 25. 321 26. 322 86. 339 97. 343 4. . 348 reasonings Obshchelogichesky 24. St. - Petersburg 354 5. . 358 6. . nanotechnology 367 reasonings 12. realizability nanotechnology 369 E.Dreksler 372 7. 372 8. . 373

G.G.Malinetsky. 4 5 9 12 17 23 Bostrom. 29

30 32 1. 34 1. . 34 2. . 56 3. 76 4. . 81 5. . superdrug 90 6. . ( ) 93 7. . 95 8. . nanotechnology 110 9. 118 10. . 121 11. . 126 12 . SETI 131 13 . 141 14 . 142 15 . 166 16 . 169 anthropogenous 17 . 175 18 . 176 1 19 . 186 20 . . 210 21 . , 229 22 . 246 23 . 251 24 . 282 25 . 300 2. . 305

1. . . . 305 309 2. 3. . , 325 4. . 362 reasonings Obshchelogichesky 5. . 373 6. . nanotechnology 383 reasonings 388 7. 388 8. . 390 : 391 1. . 402 2. . 440 E.Yudkowsky. . 440 N.Bostrom. Doomsday . 495 A.A.Kononov. 500 : 515

Nick Bostrom .

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Nick Bostrom , 2007 12 7

G.G. Malinetsky. .

G.G. Malinetsky Keldysh

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macroshift , . E. Laslo. "Macroshift" , . synergetrics (, ) - . . parametre . ( , " " Fernan Brodel ) . "" parametres . 1 . . 4. 2,5 , . - - 2 . - . 2,5 . , . XX . 140 7 ( ). , , . , . , . , synergetrics . . . . synergetrics , . , - - , . Malthusian . . (1) Ost Thomas Malthus (1766-1834 ) , , . N (t) = N0 exp (; t) . : - . . , , 1960 , . Moore : 18 ( ) . , , , . () (1) , .

(2) , , . (2) : . (3) TF = 1/ TF ; N0. , . XX 2 frew (1) (2) , TF paleodemographs, _ ; ; 2025 . (3) ( ). 2030 . , , nano, cogno ( NanoBioInfoCogno - NBIC ), . . . (3), - - . . - 1 - 20 . . - . , 10 . . , biospheres 15-20 (, , , ). , . ssynergetrics . . parametre , . , , . S.P. Kapitsa . , , . . , , . , , , . A. v. Turchin leitmotif . , ( , , ) . . , , . ( , ). . . . . , , .

, . "" , . , . , , , ! () . A.S. Pushkin . , . , , . XX - , , Grigory Rasputin . Alexey Turchin Chekhovian "" . . - . , . , , , , , - . , , , , , , . postmodernist 1 , , psychics . , . " , , , , " , - M. Fuko - " " . , , , Countermodernism , . , . , . A. v. Turchin deliberately-dryish . . , 2 . , . : " ? , , , , , ? - . - , -" .

, , . , , , . - ( , microrobots ), crionics (, , freezings,) , transhumanistic . , , A.A.Kononov : " ! , , " . "Gevchok" ( ""). , kosmist N.F.Fedorov . - K.E.Tsiolkovsky geliobiology - A.L.Chizhevsky . . - , , , , . . sci S. Lem "Summa Technologie" ( 1960 ). , , parry . Isaac Azimov . " " (XX ). S.A. Stepanov, : ", , , , . Azimov - - . " " , . : , , , , " . . (, , ). , / cosmopolitans , . , . , .

? . , - ". . 1 . 100 : " , , " .

. - , ? - 1/2 - ? - , . . pithiness . . . ( , ) . A. v. Turchin "" . , ? N , n . : (4) , , p (M) M pn . p (M) . , , , (4) . N = 0! . (A. v. , , Turchin ) Frank . , (5) N - , R - , P - , Ne - , L - , C - ,

, T - . (5) , , . . R , , unevident . P . 10 - . " " " " , . Ne , . L . Fransis (DNA ) . Presidium ( ) . , a.m Galimov , : " ?" , , . 2 , . A. v. Turchin . , , . , "" . . , , , XVI , (, ) : , (6) S - , i - , N - , pi - i , XI - i . XI, . , () . . _ ( applied , (6), S = ;. , S = j ; ;). XX , , , , : , (7) M , gi (pi, XI) i i , (pi, XI) - .

, , . . , gi (pi, XI) = 0 pi