Yoshi-Yuki Hayashi Yukiko Yamada Yoshiyuki Takahashi Masaki Ishiwatari Mayumi Yoshioka
description
Transcript of Yoshi-Yuki Hayashi Yukiko Yamada Yoshiyuki Takahashi Masaki Ishiwatari Mayumi Yoshioka
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On the varieties offorced and spontaneously generated
tropical precipitation patterns:some expectations and results
Yoshi-Yuki Hayashi Yukiko Yamada
Yoshiyuki Takahashi Masaki IshiwatariMayumi Yoshioka
Wataru OhfuchiTakeaki Sampe
Kensuke Nakajima
1)Hokkaido University, 2)University of Tokyo, 3)Kyushu Universtiy, 4)ESC/JAMSTEC
Reading, U.K.
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Contents
• equatorial disturbances– From Hayashi & Sumi 1986 + Numaguti & Hayas
hi 1991• Classical image: wave-CISK, WISHE
– eastward vs. westward• advection or wave
– planeary scale modulation?
• steady response to SST anomaly– Hosaka et al 1998 vs. Hoskins & Neele 2000
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equatorial disturbances
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Hayashi and Sumi 1986Numaguti and Hayashi 1991a,b
•aqua planet condition•the first global NWP model of Japan Met. Agency run at the Univ. of Tokyo•T42L12•cumulus parameterization
• Kuo (Hayashi & Sumi 1986)• Kuo and Adjustment (Numaguti & Hayashi 1991a, b)
Hayashi & Sumi 1986 JMSJ 64 451
20 years ago …
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• super (cloud) clusters:
eastward moving feature with a scale of a few grids• wave number one modulation (30 day oscillation):
inhomogeneous distribution of super clusters• double ITCZ
Hayashi and Sumi 1986
Hayashi & Sumi 1986 JMSJ 64 451
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super cloud clusters: spurious or real• since their scale is at the edge of the model resolution, they were, at the beginning, regarded as computational noise. • Nakazawa 1986, equatorial OLR x-t diagram with the time resolution higher than those plotted before, gives some reality; many eastward features are identified within one active ISV phase
Nakazawa 1986 JMSJ 64 777
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super cloud clusters in the model: Kelvin wave-CISK
Numaguti & Hayashi 1991 JMSJ 69 541
•Kuo scheme is regarded to be wave-CISK friendly•Composite structure resembles those expected for Kelvin wave-CISK
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wave number one modulation (30 day oscillation): WISHE, frictional convergence?
with wind feedback
Kuo
Adj
ustm
ent
no wind feedback (zonal mean )
•An experiment without surface wind feedback (longitudinally uniform evaporation) show little evidence of wave number one modulation
• However, Lee et al (2003) argues that frictional convergence is important.
Numaguti & Hayashi 1991 JMSJ 69 563
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equatorial wave (no feedback)• equatorial wave-CISK with an asymmetric feedback where heating occurs only when low level vertical wind is positive tends to present only Kelvin coherent (non dispersive) wave packet. (Lau and Peng 1987)
linear CISK feedbackpositive only CISK feedback
Kelvin and westward gravity wave packetKelvin wave with single upward region
http://www.gfd-dennou.org/arch/ape/wavecisk
A simple way of thinking from old days: near the grid scale
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• Hence, super cloud clusters may be regarded as a realization of
Kelvin wave-CISK.• Size of super cloud clusters is larger than covering several cloud
clusters.• according to the prediction of growth rate of wave-CISK theory,
it must be the smallest size in the range where dynamics of
convective cloud system (mesoscale dynamics) does not interfare.
• Because of the limitation of model resolution and representation of
moist process, grid scale convection in a model can represent as • super cloud clusters (Kelvin wave-CISK) propagating eastward• convective system advected westward mainly by the background
wind (cloud clusters)
A model may represent both or either of them. • A higher resolution model may represent envelope eastward
super cloud cluster and internal cloud clusters.
A simple way of thinking from old days: near the grid scale
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AGU for APE cumulus comparison (T39L48)
eml ias
kuo-sc kuo
Adjust non
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Takayabu (1998), Wheeler and Kiladis (1999)
• signals corresponding to westward gravity waves are identified.• So do some models
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AGU for APE cumulus comparison (T39L48)
eml ias
kuo-sc kuo
Adjust non
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AGU for APE cumulus comparison (T39L48) Qobs
eml ias
kuo-sc kuo
Adjust non
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• Three types of grid scale precipitation
1. basically westward propagating + some eastward
2. basically eastward propagating modulated by westward moving envelop
3. both eastward and westward convective areas are similar
appearance
AGU for APE cumulus comparison (T39L48) Qobs
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AGU for APE cumulus comparison (T39L48) Qobs
eml ias
kuo-sc kuo
Adjust non
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AGUforAPE(eml) CSIRO GSFC
K1JAPAN LASG MGO
NCAR UKMOn48 UKMOn96
model comparison
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AGUforAPE(eml) CSIRO GSFC
K1JAPAN LASG MGO
NCAR UKMOn48 UKMOn96
model comparison
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radiative cooling weighted in the upper layer
radiative coolingweighted in the lower layer
• westward gravity waves seem to be also coupled with convection.
http://www.gfd-dennou.org/arch/ape/agcm5/mradl/kuo-mradlA-xteq.html
Heating profile (CISKy condition) and wavesby a simple AGCM5.3 model (Kuo)
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radiative cooling weighted in the upper layer
radiative coolingweighted in the lower layer
• westward gravity waves also coupled
http://www.gfd-dennou.org/arch/ape/agcm5/mradl/mradlA-xteq.html
Heating profile (CISKy condition) and wavesby a simple AGCM5.3 model (adjustment)
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Planetary scale modulation
• Super cloud clusters vs. planetary scale modulation
• Eastward propagating low frequency large scale modulation does not
seem to appear very frequently
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AGU for APE (T159L48, none) flatLarge scale modulation
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Planetary scale modulation• Super cloud clusters vs. planetary scale modulation.
How do we recognize them?
• These may be considered as higher resolution version of super clusters, wave-CISK
like features, rather than a planetary scale modulation.
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Planetary scale modulation• How about those?
K1JAPAN FRCGC
AGUforAPE T159 non flat
• This must be different from super cloud clusters
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steady response to SST anomaly
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• Neal & Hoskins 2001 ASL (3keq)precipitation decrease both to the east and west
• Hosaka el al 1998 JMSJ precipitation increase to the east of SST anomaly
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•AGCM5.3 GFD Dennou Club• by Numaguti from JMA NWP model• prototype of CCSR/NIES model
•SIMPLE•simple radaitive process
• three bands for dry atmosphere
• one band for water vaper•no cloud, no rain
•T42L16
•4K (3.6K on the grid) SST anomaly •Hosaka et al 1998 JMSJ 76 289
Set up of Hosaka et al. 1998
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surface pressure response of Hosaka et al. 1998
•To the east wide extension of low pressure anomaly associated with Kelvin wave like response•To the west narrow extension of low pressure anomaly associated with Rossby wave like response, and high pressure anomaly
Hosaka et al 1998 JMSJ 76 289
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•To the east
Precipitation decreases as (moist) downwelling Kelvin wave front arrives, and then
precipitation increases because of Ekman convergence toward the equatorial
low pressure associated with the Kelvin wave.•To the west
Precipitation continues to decrease after the arrival of
Rossby wave, since Ekman flow is diverging near the equator.
pressure precipitation
Initial development of SST response exemplified by 128 ensemble mean
•Toyoda et al 2000 Nagare Multi Mdeia http://www.nagare.or.jp/mm/99/toyoda/ •Nakajima et al 2004 JMSJ 82 1483
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precipitation response to the east of SST anomaly
• Precipitation to the east of the SST anomaly increases because of
the Ekman convergence associated with the low pressure anomaly
caused by the warm Kelvin wave response extending from
the convection center (SST anomaly region).
• Hence, if the equatorial low pressure anomaly is week compared
to the off-equatorial latitudes,
precipitation may not increase.
• Equatorial surface pressure may not be low enough when
condensation heating is top heavy so that
second baroclinic mode is more intense.
Realistic models which include sophisticated moist processes
and radiation feedbacks cause top heavy profile
compared to simple AGCM5.3.
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GSFCAGUforAPE
K1Japan LASG
NCAR UKMO96
model comparison: precipitation anomaly (3Keq)
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AGUforAPE GSFC
K1Japan LASG
NCAR UKMO96
model comparison: surface pressure anomaly (3Keq)
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AGU for APE cumulus comparison (T39L48) 3Keq
eml ias
kuo-sc kuo
Adjust non
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AGU for APE cumulus comparison (T39L48) flat3Keq
eml ias
kuo-sc kuo
Adjust non
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AGCM5.3 (simple model, T42L16)
3Keq
Qobs3Keq
flat3Keq
H1998
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AGCM5.3 (simple model, T42L16)
3Keq
Qobs3Keq
flat3Keq
H1998
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AGU for APE zonal mean precipitation (T39L48)
eml ias
kuo-sc kuo
Adjust non
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AGUforAPE GSFC
K1Japan LASG
NCAR UKMO96
model comparison: zonal mean precipitation
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Some confessions
• Aqua planet is not easy to understand.• It seems that I do not dislike wave-CISK as a crude theory of
instability caused by wave-wave interaction coupled by
condensation heating. • in other word, I do not have any good simple device to describe
what is going on in the model. • Hayashi and Sumi (1986) is not very robust, rather fragile.
• However, according to late Numaguti, you can tune most of the
parameterizations to reproduce eastward coherent motion of
grid scale activities. • But its tuning does not seem to be easy. • Integration period of those old GCM runs of Hayashi & Sumi (1986)
or Numaguti & Hayashi (1991) is too short to confirm robustness of
planetary scale modulatio.
Figures of AGUforAPE are available from http://www.gfd-dennou.org/arch/ape/