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Transcript of VanLuong.blogspot.com ViTheUSD
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7/31/2019 VanLuong.blogspot.com ViTheUSD
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LOGO
V th ca USD qua cc thik v vn la ha Nhm 2:
Nguyn Trng Anh Nguyn Bch Hnh Phm Th Bch Ngc (86)
Bi Th Mai Phng Trn Th Thoan H Th Hi Yn
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Ni dung
V th ca la qua cc thi k 1
Vn la ha Vit Nam 2
4
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1. V th ca USD qua cc thi k
Cc tiu ch nh gi v th ca mt ng tin 1.1
V th ca la qua cc thi k 1.2
4
Nhng d on v th ca ng la trongtng lai 1.3
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1.1.Cc tiu ch nh gi v th ca mt ng tin
Nhn t d tr ngoi hi ca quc gia: Mt ng tinc v th ln s c t trngcao trong qu d tr ngoi hi ca cc quc gia
T trng trong thanh ton v tn dng quc t: Cc giao dch nhiu quc gia c quy ira ng tin , v s lng giao dch v ln Yu t lng tin ca ngi dn vo gi tr ng tin : ng yu c nhiu quc gia chp nhn v s dng nhiutronggiao dch quc t Li sutTri phiu Chnh phm nc ban hnh
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Nhn t nh hng n v th ng USD
Thng tin kinh t: ch s GDP, CPI, cung tin
M2, t l tht nghip, t l lm pht.
Nhn t chnh tr
Nhn t chnh sch v li sut
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1.2. V th ca la qua cc thi k
5. Giai on 1980 1985
4. Giai on t nm 1973 n nhng nm 1980
6. T Hip nh Plaza n Hip nh Louvre
1. Trc chin tranh th gii th nht
7. Sau s kin khng b 11/09/2001
2. Gia hai cuc i chin th gii
3. Thi k Bretton Woods sau chin tranh th gii II
8. V th ca ng USD trong giai on hin nay
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1.2. V th ca la qua cc thi k
Trc chin tranh th gii th nht Trong giai on ny ng USD ch n thun ng vai tr l 1 ngtin quc gia
Gia hai cuc i chin th gii Trong giai on ny, ng la M t ng tin quc gia bt utin dn n vic tr thnh ng tin c v th trong giao dch quc t
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1.2. V th ca la qua cc thi k
Thi k Bretton Woods sau chin tranh th gii II - S au i chin th gii th II, M tr thnh mt cng quc mnh
nht th gii v ngoi thng, v tn dng quc t v l nc c d
tr vng ln nht th gii (chim khong tng d tr vng caton b th gii t bn). y chnh l nhng yu t to nn thmnh cho ng la M trn trng quc t, a ng tin nyln ngi ng tin ch cht ca th gii
- Thng 7 nm 1944 ch tin t Bretton-woods ra i vi vic thanhn USD l ng tin chun, lm tr ct cho ch tin t ny
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1.2. V th ca la qua cc thi k
Giai on 1973 1980 Trong thi k nyUSD mt dn v tr c
tn, nhng do tim lckinh t ca M rt ln,cho nn USD vn cnl mt ng tin mnh
Giai on 1980 1985 USD khng ngng tnggi, t gi danh ngha
v t gi thc tng gn50%. Nguyn nhn lCP M p dng chnhsch tht cht tin t,ni lng chnh sch tikho dn n thm ht
ngn sch
T Hip nh Plaza
n Hip nh Louvre Trc s tng gi cang USD, cc nc i n nhm hp
a ra Hip nh Plaza cam kt hp tc gim gi ng USD. ng USD gim gi
mnh
Sau s kin khng b11/09/2001
S kin 11/9/2001,vnh cao l v tndng ti M dn n
khng hong ti chnhton cu. USD mt gi
16% tnh t thng3/2009 v trn 20%
tnh t nm 2002 vtip tc xung gi
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1.2. V th ca la qua cc thi k
V th ca ng USD trong giai on hin nay V th ca USD ang gim dn, bi thc t cho thy: Gi tr ng USD ang b xi mn: t gi USD c xu hng gim sovi mt s ng tin mnh Kim ngch trao i hng ha trn th gii bng USD c chiu hnggim. Cc nc tm cch gim giao dch bng USD V th ng tin d tr ca USD cng suy gim: T l USD trong rtin t d tr th gii do IMF qui nh gim t 69% nm 2002 xung62% nm 2008 v cn 42% t 2011
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V th ca ng USD trong giai on hin nay
NGUYN NHN V TH GiM
Do Chnh schtin t tnc M:ni lng tin t tng cnhtranh xutkhu, lm chong USDngy cng mtgi
Lng tin vogi tr ngUSD gimst do nhngtn ti trongnn kinh tM
V th tng lnca TrungQuc, gy ranhng lo ngiv ng USD.
M hin l conn ln ca thgii, Trung Qucl ch n lnnht ca M
Vi bt n cah thng tin tquc t, ccnc c xuhng a dng
ha d tr tin tquc gia. IMF ku gi ci tG20, trao thmquyn lc mi
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V th ca ng USD trong giai on hin nay
Tuy nhin USD vn chim v tr s 1 th gii trong giai on hin nay do:
M vn lnn kinh t ng u th gii
D cc ncgim giao dchbng USD songla vn duy trvai tr chnhtrong cc giao
dch ngoi hi,TM, v th trngNHquc t
USDvn ng vai tr ch yu ca ng tin d tr
quc t
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1.3. D on v th ng la trong tng lai
Tnh t u nm2011 n nay, USD mt gi 5% vgiao dch st mcthp nht so vi gi
cc loi tin t ln trn th gii
Liu ng USD s mtv th ng tin d tr
ca th gii sau 25nm na?
Nc nm d tr USDng k nht lTrungQuc, n nay adng ra khi ng tinny. 4 thng u nmnay, trong d trngoi hi ca TrungQuc c u t voti sn khng phi USD(theo c tnh caStandard Chartered)
Khi m
Khi m
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1.3. D on v th ng la trong tng lai
D bo v ng tin a cc thay th cho s thng trca ng USD hin nay ging vi suy ngh ca mts nh hoch nh chnh sch hng u th gii .Ngn hng Th gii, trong nm 2010 xut v mth thng tin t mi trong bao gm nhiu ng tinln ca th gii bao gm ng USD, ng euro, yn,bng Anh v nhn dn t.
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So snh vi v th ca EURO
Gi tr ng EURO ang b suy yu
Gi Euro gim mnh
T trng s dng ng tin thanh ton lEURO vn cn thp EURO hay bt c ng tin no khc cng kh c th chimlnh c v tr ca ng tin ny trong giao dch ngoi thng v thng mi quc t
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2. Vn la ha
Khi nim la ha
Phn loi la ha
Tc ng ca la ha
Thc trng la ha Vit Nam
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2.1. Khi nim
KHI NIM LA HA Ngoi t c s dng rngri thay
cho ng ni t trong ton b hoc mt s chc nng tin t
PHNLOI LA HA - la ha khng chnh thc
- la ha bn chnh thc - la ha chnh thc
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2.2. Phn loi
Theo hnh thc: la ha thay th ti sn, la haphng tin thanh ton, la ha nh gi-nim yt gi
Theo phm vi s dng: la ha khng chnh thc, la ha bn chnh thc, la ha chnh thc
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la ha khng chnhthc - ngUSD c s dng rngri trong nnkinh t, mcd
khng c qucgia chnh thc tha nhn
la ha bn chnhthc - ngUSD luhnh hpphp, c th chim u thtrong cc
khon tin gingn hng
la ha chnhthc - ng ngoi tl ng tin hpphp duy nht c luhnh
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2.3.1 Tc ng tch cc ca laha
gp phn lm gim lm pht
Tng cng kh nng cho vay ca ngn hng
H thp chi ph giao dch.
Thc y thng mi v u t
Thu hp chnh lch t gi trn hai th trng chnh thcv ph chnh thc
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2.3.2. Tc ng tiu cc ca laha
nh hng n vic hoch nh cc chnh sch kinh tv m
lm gim hiu qu iu hnh ca chnh sch tin t
Chnh sch tin t b ph thuc nng n vo nc M
la ho chnh thc s lm mt i chc nng ca ngnhng trung ng l ngi cho vay cui cng ca ccngn hng
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2.4. Thc trng la ha ti Vit Nam (ngun: http//www.sbv.gov.vn)
th 1: Din bin la ha Vit Nam
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1 9 9 5
1 9 9 6
1 9 9 7
1 9 9 8
1 9 9 9
2 0 0 0
2 0 0 1
2 0 0 2
2 0 0 3
2 0 0 4
2 0 0 5
2 0 0 6
2 0 0 7
2 0 0 8
2 0 0 9
T 1 0 / 2 0 1
0
%
Tin gi ngoi t/M2 Tn dng ngoi t/M2
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Digc la ha tin gi:Gim t trn 30% vo cui nhng nm 90 xung di20%hinnay.
- Giai on1991 -1993: gim mnh - Giai on1994 -1996: kh n nh - Giai on2000 - 2001: t l tin gi ngoi t/M2 tng v
mc khong30%.
- Giai on2002 - 2007: c xu hng gim - T2008 nnay: mc la ha kh n nh (khong20%)
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Digc la ha tinvay:Mc la ha c s bin ngkh mnh
- Giai on2000 2005: gim mnh t mc31% xung13
16%.- T2005 nnay: Tngln khong20%
Di gc la ha tin mt:
Mc la ha tng dn qua cc nm
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Nguyn nhn chung
1. Do a v kinh t chungca cc ncc ng tin mnh
Xutpht nhu cu s dng mt ng tin quc t trong giao dch thng mi Mt s nc davo li th
kinh t ch trng a ng tin camnh ra th gii
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2. Dong ni tc gitr thpv khngn nh
3. Do trnh qun l NhNcv chnh schtin t quc gia
Qunl tin t caNh Nc lng lo, thiu cht ch,khngkimsot cchi tiu trn th trng
Nhiu nc ch ngtheo ui lich ca la haChnh sch tin tlm ng ni t yuv bt n
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Nguyn nhn ring
1 Ngun ngoi t VitNam tngnhanh
2 Yu ttm l
3
la ha do chacn bng lich nm gi
gia ngVND v USD
4 Tnh trngbun luqua bin gii dinra mnh
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1. Ngun ngoi t tng nhanh v Vit Nam c nhiuknhhuy ng ngoi t
Ngun kiu hi tng mnh vi mc tng10% /nm
Lng ngoi tchi tiu VitNam cakhch du lch tng nhanh cng vi lng khch du lch.
Tin lng ca ngi VitNam lm victrong cc dn lin doanh, c quan nc ngoi ti VitNam v.v ..c tr bng ngoi t
Tin vin tr khng hon li, tin cacc t chc t thin, t chcphi chnh ph ncngoi v.v
Hot ng u t nc ngoi ti Vit Nam gm c u t trc tip v g
Kim ngch xut khu ngy cng gia tng cng vi s pht trin ca nn kin
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2. Yu t tm l
Xutpht ttm l chung ngoiv s VN mtgi
C thi quen s dng ngoi t trong thanh ton v giao dch quan trng nhmua nh ca, t .
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3. Bun luqua bin gii dinra mnh
4. Lich nm gi giaVND v USD chacn bng Nguyn nhn do:- Bin ng v tgi, li sut thc tv li sut k vng - VN cha phil ng tin chuyn i - Lmpht tng icao so vikhu vc
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Gii php chng la ha Vit Nam
Ngh nh 95/2011 v.v x pht vi phm hnh chnh
Thng t s 14/2011/TT NHNN
Quyt nh iu chnh t gi
Tng d tr bt buc i vi ngoi t
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Thng t s 14/2011/TT - NHNN
NI DUNG
Quy nh trn li sut vn huyng bng la M ca t chc, c nhn ti t chc tn dng l2% /nm, gim1% so vi trc
TC DNG
Gimnhu cu nm giUSD ca cc c nhn v doanh nghip t gim cuUSD, gim t gi, kim ch lmpht v kt qul chng la ha
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Quyt nh iu chnh t gi
NI DUNG
V mc iu chnh: gi USD tronggiao dch lin ngn hng tng 1.700 ng, t mc18.932 VNDln mc20.693 VND/USDV bin : thu hpbin giaodch xung mc gn nh ti thiu, ch cn +- 1%.
TC DNG
Hn ch, gii totnh trng gm gi, k vng u c, gp phn cn i theo nguyn tc th
trng cung- cu v ngoi t, kch thch xut khu t gp phn kim ch lmpht, chng la ha.Thu hpchnh lch tgi chnhthc vi tgi trn th trng t do, ci thin d tr ngoi hi ca Vit Nam, gim bt k vng u c v c hot ngbun bn vn
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Tng d tr bt buc i vi ngoi t
NI DUNG
Tng t l d tr bt buc i vi ngoi t
TC DNG
Trc tiptc ng nchi ph huyng vn bng ngoi t cacc t chctn dng,theo yli sut cho vay USD ln, gimnhu cu vay bng ngoi t cacc doanhnghip, gim cuUSD
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