Uticaj COVID-19 krize na procjenu vrijednosti The Impact ...

Naučni časopis za ekonomiju – 03/20

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Tajana Serdar Raković*

Uticaj COVID-19 krize na procjenu vrijednosti

The Impact of the COVID-19 Crisis on Value Assessment

Rezime Procjena vrijednosti je suočena s dvostrukim izazovom. S jedne strane, mnogo je teže doći do relevantne procijenjene vrijednosti u teško predvidljivim uslovima, a s druge strane, COVID-19 kriza dodatno je uvećala pritisak javnosti na procjenu. Istraživačko pitanje odnosi se na ispitivanje uticaja krize na vrijednost i procjenu vrijednosti, koje determinante procjene vrijednosti je potrebno prilagoditi kriznim uslovima i na koji način izvršiti prilagođavanja. Sprovedena istraživanja u Bosni i Hercegovini pokazuju da je korporativni sektor veoma pogođen COVID-19 krizom. Očigledno je da faktori koji utiču na pad poslovanja ostavljaju posljedice na vrijednost preduzeća. Bez obzira na uticaj krize, ostaju relevantne najčešće korišćene metode procjene: metode diskontovanja novčanih tokova i tržišne metode procjene. Mogućnosti za rješavanje problema nedostatka relevantnih inputa jesu normalizacija multiplikatora, metode scenarija i ekstrapolacija podataka iz dostupnih cijena slične imovine. Diskontne stope treba revidirati uvažavajući pad bezrizičnih stopa, povećano zaduživanje, tržišni rizik i premije specifične za preduzeće/ industrijsku granu. U vrijeme velike neizvjesnosti, svakako je preporučljivo koristiti što više metoda procjene vrijednosti kako bi se umanjile greške kojima je svaka od njih podložna i sprovesti analizu osjetljivosti ključnih deter-minanti vrijednosti. Procjena vrijednosti u kriznim uslovima zahtijeva široko sagledavanje svih okolnosti i faktora, stručni sud, intuciju i profesionalni skepticizam procjenjivača.

Ključne riječi: procjena vrijednosti, COVID-19, diskontovani novčani tok, diskontna stopa, metode procjene vrijednosti, poslovanje pre-duzeća.

AbstractValuation is faced with a double challenge, on the one hand, it is much more difficult to reach the relevant assessed value in hardly predictable conditions, and on the other hand, the COVID-19 crisis has additionally increased public pressure on valuation. The research question refers to the examination of the crisis impact on value and value assessment, which elements and valuation determinants need to be adjusted to the crisis conditions and how to make these adjustments. Researches conducted in Bosnia and Herzegovina show that the corporate sector has been hit hard by the COVID-19 crisis. It is obvious that the factors affecting the decline of business also leave consequences on the company value. Regardless of the impact of the crisis, the most commonly used valuation methods remain relevant: discounted cash flow methods and market valuation methods. Possibilities for solving the problem of lacking relevant inputs are normalization of multipliers, scenario methods and extrapolation of data from available prices of similar assets. Discount rates should be revised taking into account the decrease in risk-free rates, increased borrowing, market risk and company/industry specific premiums. In times of great uncertainty, it is certainly advisable to use as many valuation methods as possible in order to minimize the errors related each of them and to conduct a sensitivity analysis of key value determinants. Valuation, in terms of crisis, requires the broad view of all circumstances and factors, expert judgment, intuition and the professional skepticism of the appraiser.

Keywords: valuation, COVID-19, discounted cash flow, discount rate, valuation methods, business operations.

* Ekonomski fakultet Univerziteta u Banjoj Luci, e-mail: [email protected]

UDK 005.336:616.98 PREGLEDNI RADDOI: 10.7251/FIN2003027R


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UVOD

Trenutna situacija u svijetu, pod uticajem pandemije COVID-19, izazvala je velike probleme u svjetskoj ekonomiji i donijela izazove u svim aspektima društva. S obzirom na to da se kriza proširila veoma brzo, vlada, naučnici, zdravstveni radnici, privredni subjekti i javnost morali su da reaguju u stvarnom vremenu, bez adekvatnih činjeničnih podloga i testiranih informacija (IVSC, 2020). Posmatrano sa poslovnog aspekta, preduzeća i biznisi svih veličina pogođeni su na različite načine, a tržišta kapitala svakodnevno su izložena velikim promjenama i volatilnosti cijena i obima trgovine. Globalna ekonomija i finansijska tržišta suočeni su sa rastućom volatilnošću i prekidom ili ugrožavanjem poslovanja. Analitičari i investitori imaju različita viđenja o daljim uticajima COVID-19 krize na korporativni sektor, ali se procjenjuje da je efekat pandemije COVID-19 na opadajuću spiralu vrijednosti akcija ozbiljniji i veći nego u finansij-skoj krizi iz 2008. godine, pa čak dramatičniji i od krize izazvane Drugim svjetskim ratom. Za procjenjivače i procjenjivačku praksu, neizvjesnost COVID-19 krize uzrokovala je probleme i izazove u načinu izvođenja procjena vrijednosti i određivanju vrijednosti, ali i u objavljivanju informacija na adekvatan način, upotrebljiv i infor-mativan za korisnike. Procjenjivači imaju veliku ulogu u današnjem nesigurnom vremenu kad je u pitanju vraćanje povjerenja javnosti u promjenjiva tržišta kapitala, obezbjeđujući transparentne i dokazima poduprte procjene vrijednosti.

Procjena vrijednosti suočena je s dvostrukim izazovom. Kao prvo, mnogo je teže doći do relevantne procijenjene vrijednosti u teško predvidljivim uslovima na globalnom nivou, a kao drugo, COVID-19 kriza je dodatno uvećala pritisak poslovne zajednice i javnosti na procjenu. Investitori, akcionari, kreditori i ostali shareholderi su i više nego zainteresovani da što bolje i tačnije procijene svoje rizike i prinose, te da svoje odluke i djelovanje potkrijepe informacijama. Privredni subjekti takođe moraju da spoznaju prave vrijednosti svojih biznisa, ne samo u cilju poslovnog odlučivanja već i cilju ispunja-vanja svojih poreskih i drugih obaveza prema državi. Ogromna glo-balna volatilnost na tržištu akcija i obveznica, promjenjivost prinosa državnih obveznica i povećanje zaduženosti, izuzetno komplikuju ionako težak posao vrednovanja nelikvidne aktive (PwC, 2020). Svi aspekti procjene vrijednosti su pod lupom javnosti.

Istraživačko pitanje odnosi se na ispitivanje uticaja krize na vrijed-nost i procjenu vrijednosti, koje determinante u procjeni vrijednosti je potrebno prilagoditi postojećim uslovima i na koji način izvršiti prilagođavanja. U trenutnim uslovima, sve pretpostavke procjene i informacioni inputi procjene vrijednosti treba da budu ispitani. Iako je mnogo teže doći do relevantne procijenjene vrijednosti u trenut-nim uslovima, ovaj zadatak je ostvariv pod određenim uslovima. Od samih procjenjivača zahtijeva se veći stepen kritičnosti, opreznosti, ali i zdravorazumskog pristupa zasnovanog na profesionalnom iskustvu i stručnosti. Dalje u radu, osvrnućemo se na prilagođa-vanje procjene vrijednosti trenutnim kriznim uslovima i analizirati uticaj COVID-19 krize na metode procjene i ključne determinante procjene vrijednosti, kao i na poslovanje i vrijednost preduzeća u Bosni i Hercegovini i Republici Srpskoj.

1. PRILAGOĐAVANJE PROCJENE VRIJEDNOSTI USLOVIMA COVID-19 KRIZE

Najveći uticaj COVID-19 krize na procjenu vrijednosti odnosi se na kreiranje potrebe mnogih privrednih subjekata za novom postepide-mijskom procjenom vrijednosti (Valentiam Group, 2020). Pandemija je uticala na ekonomski osjetljivu aktivu i industrijske grane, kao

što su energetski sektor, turizam, ugostiteljstvo i tržište nekretnina. Procjena vrijednosti korišćenjem prinosnih metoda odražava snižen neto novčani tok, a neizvjesnost u budućnosti dovodi do pesimi-stičnijih projekcija. Tržišne metode su pod uticajem nižih tržišnih mutiplikatora, što se reflektuje u nižim procijenjenim vrijednostima. Troškovne metode mogu da rezultiraju nižom vrijednošću zbog očekivanja javnosti da se niže procijene troškovi rada, troškovi materijala i drugi troškovi, kao rezultat stanja u ekonomiji. Napo-sljetku, procjena će imati za rezultat nižu procijenjenu vrijednost nego prije epidemije.

Nematerijalna aktiva je takođe pogođena pandemijom, jer mnoga preduzeća koja su imala spremnu intelektualnu svojinu za lansiranje, sada sredstava moraju da preusmjere u druge namjene. Preduzeća na koja je kriza materijalno uticala treba da urade i procjenu obez-vređenja gudvila. Recimo, preduzeća iz oblasti turizma, putovanja ili ekstrakcije nafte koja su nedavno kupljena sada materijalno vrijede manje nego prije epidemije (Valentiam Group, 2020). Svrhu procjene treba uzeti u obzir prilikom odlučivanja koliko volatilnosti sa tržišta kapitala uključiti u procjenu vrijednosti.

Još jedan aspekt pada vrijednosti usljed krize odnosi se na to što preduzeća koja su izgubila vrijednost neće imati tačne poreske bilanse. Procjena vrijednosti je neophodna u ovakvim slučajevima kako bi se poreske obaveze procijenile u skladu sa novom vrijed-nošću i stanjem preduzeća.

2. UTICAJ COVID-19 KRIZE NA METODE PROCJENE VRIJEDNOSTI

Profesionalne organizacije, naučna i stručna javnost iz oblasti procjene vrijednosti smatraju da opšteprihvaćeni pristupi i metode procjene i dalje predstavljaju relevantne i primjenljive metode, uprkos krizi i okolnostima (IVSC, 2020; PwC, 2020). Kod metode diskontovanog novčanog toka i tržišnih metoda procjene potrebno je promijeniti informacije koje se koriste u analizi i prilagoditi tržišne inpute zbog velike volatilnosti istih. Kada se koristi metoda diskon-tovanog novčanog toka, korisni su scenariji budućih rezultata koji predstavljaju rang mogućih događaja u budućem periodu.

Kritičan faktor kod tržišnih metoda jesu tržišni multiplikatori. Tržišni multiplikatori su u značajnom padu zbog kolapsa na tržištima ka-pitala od samog početka pandemije COVID-19. Naravno, nisu sve industrijske grane jednako pogođene. U SAD i Evropi energetski sektor je najteže pogođen (dvostruki efekat COVID-19 krize i pada cijena nafte), dok su IT, farmaceutski sektor, sektor maloprodaje i određenih usluga najmanje pogođeni. Pored navedenog pada, oče-kuje se dodatni pad tržišnih multiplikatora usljed smanjenog obima merdžera i akvizicija. Jedan od načina korišćenja tržišnih racija u tržišnim metodama procjene jeste normalizacija multiplikatora i bezrizičnih stopa u kratkoročnom periodu. Prema BDO (2020), ako se fer vrijednost računa metodom tržišnih multiplikatora koji su u padu, tekuća kriza najvjerovatnije će imati za rezultat vrijednost upotrebe veću od fer vrijednosti umanjene za troškove prodaje. Tržišni multiplikatori u tržišnim metodama treba da budu derivirani iz preduzeća koja su razumno uporediva sa procjenjivanim predu-zećem (AICPA, 2020).

Prije samog pristupanja procjeni, treba da se razmotre sve značajne informacije koje mogu da se prikupe do datuma procjene. Biznis planovi koji služe kao osnova za prognoziranje i projektovanje novčanih tokova moraju se prilagoditi tako da odražavaju nove okolnosti (zbog promjena na tržištu prodaje i nabavke) (Bartl, 2020). Novčani tokovi naročito su izloženi nesigurnosti, budući da


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INTRODUCTION

The current world situation under the influence of the COVID-19 epidemic has caused major problems in the world economy and brought challenges in all aspects of society. Given that the crisis has spread rapidly, governments, scientists, health workers, business entities and the public have to react in real-time, without adequate factual basis and tested information (IVSC, 2020). From a business point of view, firms and businesses of all sizes are affected in dif-ferent ways and capital markets are exposed to large changes in price and volume volatility daily. The global economy and financial markets are facing growing volatility and business threats or firm closures. Analysts and investors have differing views on the fur-ther effects of the COVID-19 crisis on the corporate sector, but the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the declining stock spiral is estimated to be more serious and greater than in the 2008 financial crisis, and even more dramatic than the crisis caused by Second World War. For appraisers and appraisal practices, the uncertainty of the COVID-19 crisis has caused problems and challenges in the way valuations are conducted and the value is appraised, but also in publishing information in an adequate, usable and informative way for users. Appraisers have a major role to play in today’s uncertain times regarding the restoring public confidence in volatile capital markets, by providing transparent and evidence-based valuations.

Valuation is faced with a double challenge. On the one hand, it is much more difficult to reach the relevant assessed value at hardly predictable global conditions, and on the other hand, the COVID-19 crisis has additionally increased business community and public pressure on valuation. Investors, stockholders, creditors and other shareholder are more than interested in better and more accurate assessment of their risks and returns and information-based deci-sions and actions. Business entities also have to realize the true value of their businesses, not only for the decision-making purpose but also for fulfilling their tax and other obligations to the state. Enormous global volatility in the stock and bond market, volatility in government bond yields and rising indebtedness, extremely complicate the already difficult task of valuing illiquid assets (PwC, 2020). All aspects of valuation are under public scrutiny.

The research question refers to the examination of the crisis impact on value and value assessment, which elements and valuation determinants need to be adjusted to the crisis conditions and how to make these adjustments. In the current circumstances, all the valuation assumptions and valuation information inputs have to be tested. Although it is much more difficult to reach the relevant estimated value in the current conditions, this task is achievable under certain conditions. Appraisers themselves are required to have a greater degree of criticality, caution, but also a common-sense approach based on professional experience and expertise. Further in this paper, we will observe valuation adaptation to current crisis conditions and analyze the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on valuation methods and key determinants of valuation, as well as on business operations and firm value in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Republic of Srpska.

1. THE VALUATION ADAPTATION TO THE COVID-19 CRISIS CONDITIONS

The greatest impact of the COVID-19 crisis to valuation refers to the need occurrence of many business entities for a new post-epidemic value assessment (Valentiam Group, 2020). The pandemic has af-fected economically sensitive assets and industries, such as the energy sector, tourism, catering sector and property market. Value

assessments conducted by using income methods reflect reduced net cash flow; furthermore, future uncertainty leads to more pes-simistic projections. Market methods are influenced by lower market multipliers which are reflected in lower estimated values. Cost methods may result in a lower assessed value due to the public expectations to assess the lower cost of labour, cost of materials and other costs, as an effect of the economic conditions. Finally, the valuation will result in a lower assessed value than before the epidemic.

Intangible assets are also affected by the pandemic, as many com-panies that have had intellectual property ready to launch, now have to redirect their funds for other purposes. Companies, which have been affected materially by the crisis, should assess the impairment of their goodwill. For example, companies in the field of tourism travel or oil extraction that have been recently purchased, now are worth materially less than before the epidemic (Valentiam Group, 2020). The purpose of the valuation should be taken into account when deciding how much capital market volatility to include in the valuation.

Another aspect of the crises driven value decline is that companies which have lost value may be in danger their tax balance does not truthfully and accurately reflect the amount of taxable profit. The valuation is necessary in such cases to estimate tax obligations according to the new value of the company.

2. THE IMPACT OF THE COVID-19 CRISIS ON VALUATION METHODS

Professional organizations, scientists and experts in the valua-tion field believe the generally accepted approaches and valua-tion methods remain relevant and applicable, despite the crisis and circumstances (IVSC, 2020; PwC, 2020). With the discounted cash flow method and market valuation methods, it is necessary to change the information used in the analysis and adjust the market inputs due to their high volatility. When the discounted cash flow method is used, future outcome scenarios representing the range of possible events in the future are useful.

Market multipliers are a critical factor in market methods. Market multipliers have been declining significantly due to the collapse of capital markets since the beginning of the COVID-19 pan-demic. Certainly, all industries are not equally affected. In the US and Europe, the energy sector is most seriously hit (a double ef-fect of COVID-19 crisis and decreasing of oil prices), while the IT, pharmaceutical sector, the retail sector and certain services are the least affected. In addition to the aforementioned decrease, a further decline in market multipliers is expected due to the reduced volume of mergers and acquisitions. One way to use market multipliers in market valuation methods is to normalize multipliers and risk-free rates in the short term. According to BDO (2020), if the fair value is calculated using the method of declining market multipliers, the current crisis is likely to result in a ‘Value in Use’ higher than ‘Fair Value Less Costs to Sell’. Market multipliers in market methods should be derived from the companies reasonably comparable with the company evaluated (AICPA, 2020).

Before proceeding with the value assessment, all relevant infor-mation that can be collected up to the valuation date should be considered. Business plans that serve as the basis for forecasting and projecting cash flows must be adjusted to reflect new circum-stances (due to changes in the sales and procurement market) (Bartl, 2020). Cash flows are particularly exposed to uncertainty, as it is


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je teško predvidjeti buduće novčane tokove u krizi čiji je kraj takođe neizvjestan. Procjenjivači se ne mogu osloniti na podatke, planove i novčane tokove iz prošlosti, zbog čega je opseg budućih neto novčanih tokova veoma volatilan. Na neto novčani tok utiču rizik likvidnosti i nesolventnosti, s kojim se suočava većina preduzeća u uslovima COVID-19 krize.

3. UTICAJ COVID-19 KRIZE NA DETERMINANTE METODE DISKONTOVANJA NOVČANIH TOKOVA

3.1. Projekcija neto novčanih tokova

U procjeni vrijednosti treba uzeti u obzir ne samo volatilnost i kretanja na tržištu kapitala, već i stope rasta, marže, cijene nafte i gasa i druge značajne inpute na koje je COVID-19 kriza uticala. Iako je pandemija COVID-19 zahvatila sve zemlje svijeta, uticaj

krize razlikuje se po zemljama i industrijskim granama. Naime, krive oporavka, prema ekonomistima, mogu da zauzmu nekoliko oblika: V-oblik, U-oblik, W-oblik i L-oblik. Različiti makroekonomski i mikroekonomski faktori utiču na izgled krive. Prema prognozama BDO (2020), u SAD će kriva oporavka biti W-oblika, a u Kini V-oblika. Međutim, u Evropi se ne predviđa oporavak ni u 2021. godini. Dakle, prije projektovanja novčanog toka, procjenjivač mora razmotriti makrooekonomske i industrijske prognoze, kao i stanje u zemlji u kojoj se vrši procjena.

Multiscenario je pristup način da se prevaziđu neizvjesnosti u projektovanju novčanih tokova kako bi se pokrili potencijalni ishodi COVID-19 krize (pesimistički, optimistički i najvjerovatniji scenario), kao i sve mogućnosti oporavka. Posebno je značajno analizirati obrtni kapital, CapEx, novčane prilive, novčane odlive i druge po-kazatelje koji mogu da utiču na novčani tok. Takođe, vladine mjere podrške privredi i pojedinim industrijskim granama mogu da se uzmu u obzir prilikom projektovanja različitih scenarija u kretanju novčanih tokova (Bartl, 2020). Damodaran predlaže sljedeću šemu za izračunavanje neto novčanog toka u uslovima COVID-19 krize:

Tabela 1. Uticaj pandemije COVID-19 na projekciju neto novčanog toka

Efekti pandemije COVID-19

Da li želite da prilagodite zarade u 2020. očekivanim efektima COVID-19? DA

Koliko će zarade opasti u sljedećih 12 mjeseci? 20%

Koliko će od pada zarada biti nadoknađeno do 2025. godine? 80%

Koliki će procentualno biti novčani tokovi u odnosu na zarade u 2020. godini? 87,96%

Izvor: Damodaran, 2020.

Efekti COVID-19 krize na korporativni sektor i procjene vrijednosti nisu limitirani samo na kratak rok, već se i dugoročni aspekti krize moraju uzeti u obzir. Obuhvat i jačina negativnih posljedica krize na preduzeće zavise od samog preduzeća, njegove snage i usvojenog modela poslovanja, kao i od industrijske grane u kojoj posluje. Ako kriza u budućem periodu potpuno promijeni ekonomsko okruženje, biće neophodno korigovati načine i modele poslovanja, kao i pristup procjeni vrijednosti (FAUB, 2020). Prema Bartlu (2020), kriza se u većini industrijskih grana može prevazići u srednjem roku, a mogući dugoročni efekti u pojedinim industrijskim granama analiziraju se od slučaja do slučaja.

3.2. Rezidualna vrijednost

Pitanja kakve će biti posljedice krize na rezidualnu vrijednost i da li rezidulnu vrijednost treba smanjivati pod snažnim su uticajem poslovnog modela koji je preduzeće usvojilo. Isti je slučaj i sa stopom rasta. Ne postoji jasan stav o potrebi prilagođavanja dugoročnih parametara pri projektovanju stope rasta. Inicijalna stopa rasta koja se vezuje za dugoročnu ciljnu inflaciju Evropske centralne banke može poslužiti kao konstanta u projektovanju stope rasta za potrebe procjene vrijednosti, ako očekivani povrati, stopa rasta i investicioni planovi preduzeća ne pokazuju velike varijacije.

3.3. Diskontna stopa

Diskontne stope su na globalnom nivou padale od 2019. godine. Međutim, sa pojavom i širenjem COVID-19 krize došlo je do rasta neizvjesnosti, što implicira rast diskontne stope. U periodima krize, kako se pokazalo i u finansijskoj krizi 2008. godine, bezrizična stopa može da bude abnormalno niska. Metodi za normalizaciju bezrizične stope su (BDO, 2020):

– jednostavno uprosječavanje – izračunavanje prosjeka prinosa do dospijeća na dugoročne državne obveznice tokom različitih perioda,

– različite metode zidanja (Build-Up metode) – dodavanje različitih komponenti na bezrizičnu stopu.

U SAD je trenutna bezrizična stopa procijenjena na 2,5% (Duff & Phelps, 2020). U Evropi uticaj COVID-19 krize na cijenu kapitala nije posebno razmatran u okviru profesionalnih savjeta (FAUB, 2020). FAUB se poziva samo na dugoročno planiranje troškova kapitala i, prema tome, na zanemarivu važnost krize za troškove kapitala. Ipak, trenutni tržišni podaci pokazuju ozbiljne nepravilnosti: osnovna kamatna stopa, tržišni povrat premija tržišnog rizika, sistematski rizik (mjeren beta faktorom) i trošak duga odražavaju ove tržišne nepravilnosti (Bartl, 2020). Tržišta kapitala ne pokazuju predvidljivost: u martu 2020. indeks volatilnosti se utrostručio (World Bank, 2020).

Kako se na baznu kamatnu stopu obično gleda kao na ekvivalent za bezrizičnu stopu, ona igra presudnu ulogu u procjenama vrijed-nosti. I prije COVID-19 krize, kamatne stope su pokazivale trend niskih vrijednosti. Sredinom 2019. godine, pojavile su se negativne kamatne stope u Evropi. Od januara 2020. uočljiv je značajan pad kamatnih stopa na državne obveznice u UK, SAD i Evropi (PwC, 2020). U martu 2020. godine stopa prinosa na tridesetogodišnje njemačke državne spot obveznice pala je na istorijski najniži nivo od oko – 0,5024% (Bartl, 2020). Nakon toga dolazi do postepenog rasta kamatnih stopa. Trenutno, u SAD bezrizična stopa iznosi oko 3%, a u Evropi 0% (BDO, 2020). Pojedini autori smatraju da u slučaju negativne osnovne kamatne stope na datum izvještavanja ili procjene vrijednosti kamatnu stopu treba ograničiti na najmanje > 0% (Bartl, Patloch-Kofler, 2019).

3.3.1. Beta faktor

Kao rezultat pada cijena velike većine akcija na tržištu, mnogi beta faktori naglo su se promijenili. Ova činjenica zahtijeva posebnu ana-lizu i uključivanje svih bitnih parametara u modele za izračunavanje bete. Ukupna volatilnost tržišta akcija prilično je velika. Pošto se za


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difficult to predict future cash flows in a crisis whose end is also uncertain. The appraisers cannot rely on data, plans and cash flow from the past, which is why the scope of future net cash flows is very volatile. Net cash flow is affected by liquidity risk and insol-vency risk, which most companies face in the conditions of the COVID-19 crisis.

3. THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 CRISIS ON DETERMINANTS OF DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW METHODS

3.1. Projection of net cash flow

The valuation should take into account not only the volatility and trends in the capital market, but also growth rates, margins, oil and gas prices, and other essential inputs affected by COVID-19 crisis. Although the COVID-19 pandemic has affected all countries of the world, the impact of the crisis has been varying across

countries and industries. Namely, recovery curves according to economists can take several forms: V-shape, U-shape, W-shape and L-shape. Different macro and microeconomic factors influ-ence the shape of the curve. According to BDO (2020) forecasts, the recovery curve in the United States will be W-shaped, and in China V-shaped. However, no recovery is expected in Europe in 2021. Thus, before projecting cash flow, the appraiser has to con-sider macroeconomic and industrial forecasts, as well as the situ-ation in the country in which the valuation is performed.

The multi-scenario approach is a way to overcome uncertainties in projection of cash flows, covering the potential outcomes of the CO-VID-19 crisis (a pessimistic, optimistic and most likely scenario), as well as all possibilities for recovery. It is especially important to analyze working capital, CapEx, cash inflows, cash outflows and other indicators that may affect cash flow. Moreover, government measures supporting the economy and some industry sectors may be regarded when projecting different scenarios of cash flows trends (Bartle, 2020). Damodaran proposes the following scheme for calculating net cash flow in a COVID-19 crisis:

Table 1: Influence of COVID-19 virus on net cash flow projection

Effects of COVID-19 virus

Do you want to adjust earnings in 2020 to the expected effects of COVID-19? YES

How much will earnings fall in the next 12 months? 20%

How much of the drop in earnings will be compensated by 2025? 80%

What will be the percentage of cash flows concerning earnings in 2020? 87,96%

Source: Damodaran, 2020

The effects of the COVID-19 crisis on corporate sectors and valuations are not limited to the short term, so the long-term aspects of the crisis have to be considered. Range and intensity of the negative consequenc-es of the crisis on business will depend on the company, its strength and the adopted business model, as well as the industry in which it operates. If the crisis completely changes the economic environment in the future, it will be necessary to correct the business operations mode and business models, as well as the approach to valuation (FAUB, 2020). According to Bartle (2020), the crisis in most industries can be overcome in the medium term, and the possible long-term effects in certain industries may be analyzed on a case-by-case basis.

3.2. Residual value

What will be the consequences of the crisis on the residual value and whether the residual value should be reduced are under the strong influence of the business model the company has adopted. The same case is with the growth rate. There is no clear position on the need to adjust long-term parameters when projecting the growth rate. The initial growth rate linked to the long-term inflation target of the European Central Bank can serve as a constant in projecting the growth rate for valuation purposes, if expected returns, growth rate and investment plans of companies do not show large variations.

3.3. Discount rate

Discount rates have been globally decreasing since 2019. However, with the onset and spread of the COVID-19 crisis, there has been an increase in uncertainty which implies an increase in the discount rate. In times of crisis, as shown in the 2008 financial crisis, the risk-free rate can be abnormally low. Methods for normalizing the risk-free rate are (BDO, 2020):

– Simple averaging - calculating the average yield to maturity on long-term government bonds over different periods;

– Different Build -Up methods - adding different components on the risk-free rate.

In the US, the current risk-free rate is estimated at 2.5% (Duff & Phelps, 2020). In Europe, the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the cost of capital has not been specifically considered in professional advice (FAUB, 2020). FAUB refers only to long-term capital expen-diture planning and, therefore, to the negligible crisis importance for capital expenditures. However, current market data show seri-ous irregularities: the base interest rate, the market return, market risk premium, systemic risk (measured by the beta factor) and the cost of debt reflect these market irregularities (Bartl, 2020). Capital markets show no predictability: volatility index is tripled in March 2020 (World Bank, 2020).

As the base interest rate is usually seen as the equivalent of a risk-free rate, it plays a crucial role in valuations. Even before the COVID-19 crisis, interest rates have been showing a trend of low values. In mid-2019, negative interest rates have appeared in Europe. Since January 2020, there has been a significant decline in interest rates on government bonds in the UK, US and Europe (PwC, 2020). In March 2020, the return rate on 30-year German govern-ment spot bonds fell to an all-time low of around -0.5024% (Bartl, 2020). After that, a gradual increase in interest rates is evident. Cur-rently, the risk-free rate in the US is around 3%, and in Europe 0% (BDO, 2020). Some authors believe that in the case of a negative base interest rate on the reporting or valuation date, the interest rate should be limited to at least > 0% (Bartl & Patloch-Kofler, 2019).

3.3.1. Beta factor

As a result of declining prices of the vast majority of stocks in the market, many beta factors have changed abruptly. This fact requires special analysis and inclusion of all essential parameters in beta cal-culation models. The general volatility of the stock market is quite


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kalkulacije bete koriste periodi od 3 do 5 godina, trenutno bete nije potrebno korigovati. Drugim riječima, potrebno je izračunavati beta faktore u dugom roku kako bi se došlo do zaključaka o određenim nepravilnostima (Bartl, 2020). Nakon izvjesnog vremena, moguće je da će u nekim industrijskim granama doći do promjena u kore-lacijama sa tržišnim indikatorima.

Volatilni karakter pokazatelja na tržištu kapitala uočava se i u ras-ponu kamatnih stopa na korporativne obveznice. Nakon izbijanja krize u Evropi (februar−april 2020), prinosi evropskih korporativnih obveznica porasli su za sve klase rejtinga (BDO, 2020). Preduzećima su bila potrebna sredstva za održavanje likvidnosti, te su podizala cijenu duga koju su spremna da plate. Prinosi evropskih korpo-rativnih obveznica još su iznad nivoa na kom su bili prije krize. U procjenama vrijednosti treba voditi računa o navedenom većem rasponu kamatnih stopa pri utvrđivanju cijene duga i WACC-a.

3.3.2. Tržišna premija rizika

Generalno, uočava se trend povećanja primijenjene tržišne pre-mije rizika (ERP − Equity Risk Premium). Preporuke od strane profesionalnih organizacija pri izračunavanju tržišne premije rizika nisu identične. FAUB (2020) savjetuje dugoročno gledište prilikom izračunavanja tržišne premije rizika i u novonastalim okolnostima COVID-19 krize. FAUB daje preporuku za tržišnu premiju rizika od 6%−8% prije ličnih poreza, odnosno 5%−6,5% poslije ličnih po-reza. S druge strane, u Austriji se tržišna premija rizija izračunava na dan procjene kao razlika između implicitnog tržišnog povrata i osnovne kamatne stope (Bartl, Gleißner, 2020). Time se uvažavaju sve posljedice krize na tržišnu premiju rizika. Tržišne stope povrata u Evropi za STOXX Europe 600, CDAX i ATXPrime iznosile su: 7,5%, 8,00% i 9,1% respektivno. Budući da je bezrizična stopa u Evropi oko 0%, prethodni tržišni prinosi istovremeno predstavljaju tržišne premije rizika za evropska tržišta (Bartl, 2020).

U SAD, prema analizama koje su proveli Duff & Phelps, tržišna premija rizika porasla je sa 5% na 6% krajem marta 2020. godine. Posljednja procjena ERP izvršena je krajem juna 2020. godine i dalje iznosi 6% za američko tržište (Duff & Phelps, 2020). Damodaran (2020) tržišnu premiju rizika za SAD u oktobru 2020. procjenjuje na 5,76% (na osnovu prosjeka kretanja za proteklih 10 godina) i na 5,29% (na osnovu trgovanja u proteklih 12 mjeseci). Radi poređenja, u SAD je 14. februara 2020. podrazumijevana tržišna premije rizika iznosila 4,83%, a 23. marta 2020. godine 7,75%, da bi 1. oktobra 2020. ponovo pala na 5,29%. Damodaran (2020) je takođe izračunao COVID-19 tržišnu premiju rizika (tzv. COVID-19 ERP), koja trenutno iznosi 4,97%. COVID-19 ERP računa se kori-štenjem ažuriranog tržišnog indeksa i kamatne stope na američke državne obveznice, sa uvažavanjem pada zarada od 25% u 2020. godini i očekivanim oporavkom zarada za 80% vrijednosti pada do 2024. godine. Damodaran tržišnu stopu rizika za tržišta u razvoju procjenjuje na 7,99%. Kako se procjene zarađivačke moći i prinosa budu mijenjale pod uticajem neizvjesnosti, biće potrebna nova prilagođavanja tržišne premije rizika.

3.3.3. Premija rizika specifičnog za preduzeće

Premija rizika specifičnog za preduzeće zavisi od samog preduzeća, te će je procjenjivač uključiti u analizu ukoliko je preduzeće više pogođeno krizom od konkurencije u istoj industrijskoj grani. Ovdje je potreban dodatni oprez kako se rizik specifičan za preduzeće ne bi dva puta računao, jednom u projektovanju novčanih tokova, a drugi put u izračunavanju diskontne stope preko premije rizika sprecifičnog za preduzeće.

4. OSTALI ELEMENTI PROCJENE VRIJEDNOSTI U USLOVIMA COVID-19 KRIZE

4.1. Leveridž i racija zaduženosti

Ukoliko su preduzećima dostupni stimulativni krediti i paketi pomoći od vlade, njihova zaduženost će rasti i struktura kapitala će se mijenjati u korist dugova. Dugoročne procjene potreba za izvorima sredstava su izuzetno značajne, ukoliko preduzeće mijenja način poslovanja i usvaja novi biznis model u krizi (BDO, 2020). Scenario analiza predstavlja koristan alat u uključivanju neizvjesnosti izazvane pandemijom COVID-19 u procjenu vrijednosti.

4.2. Kretanja i trendovi na tržištu

Ukoliko dolazi do pada na cijelom tržištu, procjena vrijednosti ne treba da se slijepo i isključivo veže za ove opadajuće trendove. Treba posmatrati dato preduzeće/biznis i njegov rast ili pad u odnosu na tržište i industrijsku granu, budući da se pretpostavlja da će se tržište eventualno naći u stanju ravnoteže.

4.3. Izvještaji i objavljivanja

Jedan od načina za prevazilaženje neizvjesnosti u procjeni jeste davanje mišljenja o procijenjenoj vrijednosti u vidu nešto šireg ranga vrijednosti. Naročito kada se procjene rade u svrhu finansijskog izvještavanja, objavljivanja treba da budu detaljnija i sveobuhvat-nija. Procjenjivači treba da naglase da se procijenjene vrijednosti mogu brzo promijeniti pogotovo kod visokozaduženih preduzeća (PwC, 2020).

5. EMPIRIJSKO ISTRAŽIVANJE: UTICAJ COVID-19 NA POSLOVANJE I VRIJEDNOST PREDUZEĆA U BOSNI I HERCEGOVINI

5.1. Pregled literature i teorijski okvir

Uticaj COVID-19 krize na finansijsku stabilnost u Evropi istraživali su Schoenmaker, Jan Reinders i A. Van Dijk (2020). Koristeći Mertonov model potencijalnih potraživanja za procjenu efekata COVID-19 na korporativni kreditni portfolio banaka u evrozoni, procijenili su da bi tržišni gubici banaka iz evrozone mogli premašiti 1 bilion evra, ili 4% do 25% knjigovodstvene vrijednosti korporativnih kredita (od 7% do 43% raspoloživog kapitala i rezervi).

Efekti COVID-19 krize na prinos na kapital američkih preduzeća analizirani su u studiji autora Bretscher, Hsu, Simasek i Tamoni (2020). Preduzeća sa sjedištem u okrugu pogođenom pandemijom COVID-19 ostvarivala su niži prinos za prosječno 27 baznih poena 10 dana nakon prve pojave COVID-19. Preduzeća iz radnointenzivnih industrijskih grana i iz okruga sa velikom mobilnošću pokazivala su lošije performanse akcija. Takođe, pogođenija su preduzeća u kojima su prethodne finansijske prognoze pokazale da će doći do pada zarade.

S obzirom na to da je razumijevanje neizvjesnosti uvijek bilo sastavni dio procjene vrijednosti imovine, French (2020) je ispitivao važnost dobre komunikacije između procjenjivača i klijenta u procjenama vrijednosti na uobičajenim tržištima, te poteškoće s materijalnom nesigurnošću koju je stvorila pandemija. COVID-19 kriza imala je značajan uticaj na vrijednost imovine i važnost jasnoće u izvještajima o procjeni. Praktične implikacije rada odnose se na značaj prilago-đavanja vrijednosti kapitala i vrijednosti zakupa zbog materijalne nesigurnosti u izvještajima o procjeni.


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high. Currently, beta does not need to be corrected since periods of 3 to 5 years are used for beta calculations. In other words, it is necessary to calculate beta factors, in the long run, to conclude certain irregularities (Bartl, 2020). After some time, there may be changes in correlations with market indicators in certain industries.

The volatile character of indicators in the capital market is also observed in the range of interest rates on corporate bonds. After the crisis outbreak in Europe (February-April 2020), the yields of Eu-ropean corporate bonds have increased for all rating classes (BDO, 2020). Companies have needed resources to maintain liquidity, so they have been raising the price of debt willing to pay. European corporate bond yields are still above the level they were before the crisis. Valuations should regard the stated higher range of interest rates when determining the price of debt and WACC.

3.3.2. Market risk premium

In general, there is a trend of increasing the applied market risk premium (ERP - Equity Risk Premium). Recommendations by pro-fessional organizations in calculating the market risk premium are not identical. FAUB (2020) advises the usual long-term view when calculating the market risk premium in the new circumstances of COVID-19 crisis. FAUB recommends a market risk premium of 6% - 8% before personal taxes and 5% - 6.5% after personal taxes. In Austria, on the other hand, the market risk premium is calculated on the valuation date as the difference between the implicit market return and the base interest rate (Bartl & Gleißner, 2020). This takes into account all the consequences of the crisis on the market risk premium. Market return rates in Europe for the STOXX Europe 600, CDAX and ATXPrime are: 7.5%, 8.0% and 9.1%, respectively. As the risk-free rate in Europe is around 0%, the previous market returns also represent market risk premiums for European markets (Bartl, 2020).

In the US, according to Duff & Phelps analysis, the market risk premium has increased from 5% to 6% at the end of March 2020. The last ERP estimate was made in late June 2020 and still stands at 6% for the US market (Duff & Phelps, 2020). According to Damodaran (2020), the market risk premium for the US in October 2020 is estimated at 5.76% (based on the average market move-ment for the past 10 years) and to 5.29% (based on trading in the past 12 months). For comparison, in the US, the default market risk premium was 4.83% on 14th of February 2020 and 7.75% on 23rd of March 2020, falling again to 5.29% on 1st of October 2020. Damodaran (2020) has also calculated the COVID-19 market risk premium (COVID-19 ERP) which is currently 4.97%. COVID-19 ERP is calculated using an updated market index and the interest rate on US government bonds, appreciating the earnings drop of 25% in 2020 and the expected earnings recovery to the 80% of the value decline by 2024. Damodaran estimates the market risk rate for emerging markets at 7.99%. As the assessment of return power and return rate may change under the influence of uncertainty, the analysis will require a new adaptation of the market risk premium.

3.3.3. Company-specific risk premium

Company-specific risk premium depends on the company itself, and the appraiser will include it in the analysis of the company is more affected by the crisis than the competition in the same industry sector. Additional caution is needed so that firm-specific risk may not be calculated twice, once in cash flow projections and the second time in calculating the discount rate over the company-specific risk premium.

4. OTHER ELEMENTS OF VALUATION IN CON-DITIONS OF COVID-19 CRISIS

4.1. Debt leverage

In case the stimulus loans and government assistance packages are available to companies, their indebtedness will grow and the capital structure will change in favour of debt. Long-term estimates of the need for fund sources are extremely important if the company changes the way of doing business and adopts a new business model in crisis (BDO, 2020). Scenario analysis is a useful tool in addressing the uncertainty caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in valuation.

4.2. Market trends

If there is a decline in the whole market, the valuation should not be blindly and exclusively linked to these declining trends. The given company/business and its growth or decline concerning the market and the industry sector should be observed since it is assumed that the market will eventually find itself in a state of equilibrium.

4.3. Reports and disclosures

One way to overcome the uncertainty in the valuation is to give the opinion on the assessed value in the form of a somewhat wider range of values. Disclosures should be detailed and comprehensive especially in the valuations for financial reporting. Appraisers should emphasize that appraised values may change rapidly especially in highly indebted firms (PwC, 2020).

5. EMPIRICAL RESEARCH: THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON THE BUSINESS OPERATIONS AND VALUE OF COMPANIES IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA

5.1. Literature review and theoretical framework

The impact of the COVID-19 crisis on financial stability in Eu-rope was investigated by Schoenmaker, Jan Reinders & A Van Dijk (2020). Using Merton’s model of potential claims for assess-ing the effect of COVID-19 on the corporate loan portfolio of banks in the Eurozone, they estimated that the market losses of banks in the Eurozone could exceed 1 trillion Euros or 4 % to 25% of the book value of corporate loans (7% to 43% of the available capital and reserves).

The effects of the COVID-19 crisis on the return on capital of Ameri-can companies were analyzed in a study by Bretscher, Hsu, Simasek, & Tamoni (2020). Companies headquartered in the district affected by the COVID-19 pandemic achieved yields lower by an average of 27 basis points 10 days after the first outbreak of the COVID-19 virus. Businesses from labour-intensive industries and districts with high mobility showed the worse performance of shares. As well, companies in which the previous financial forecasts showed a future decline in earnings, were hit more hard.

As the understanding of uncertainty has always been an integral part of the valuation of the assets, French (2020) examined the importance of good communication between the evaluator and the client in the valuations on common markets, as well as difficul-ties with material uncertainty caused by the pandemic. COVID-19 crisis has had a significant impact on the value of assets and the importance of clarity in the valuation reports. The practical implica-tions of the work related to the importance of adjusting the value


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Goodell (2020) naglasio je ogroman ekonomski i socijalni uticaj COVID-19 na finansijska tržišta i institucije analizirajući radove koji su ili prognozirali pojavu ovako velike krize i njene ekonomske posljedice, ili su procjenjivali efekte drugih epidemija i pandemija. Razmatranje karakteristika COVID-19, zajedno s istraživanjem događaja u prošlosti sličnih COVID-19 krizi, upućuje na puteve budućih istraživanja.

Koristeći finansijske podatke kineskih listiranih kompanija, Shen et al. (2020) proučavali su uticaj COVID-19 na performanse preduzeća. Dokazani negativni uticaj COVID-19 na performanse preduzeća izraženiji je kada su nivo investicija ili prihodi od prodaje niži. U dodatnoj analizi, ovaj negativni uticaj pokazao se izraženijim u po-dručjima i sektorima koji su značajno ugroženi pandemijom. Njihov rad je među prvim empirijskim dokazima povezanosti pandemije i performansi preduzeća.

Pandemija COVID-19 ostavila je ozbiljne ekonomske posljedice širom svijeta, ne samo po ekonomiju, nego po cijelo društvo, što je dovelo do dramatičnih promjena u ponašanju preduzeća i potrošača. Donthu i Gustafsson (2020) pružili su poseban pregled svih posljedica pandemije u cilju doprinosa globalnim naporima da se riješe neka pitanja povezana sa pandemijom. Autori su sastavili pregled od ukupno 13 segmenata koji pokrivaju različite industrijske sektore (turizam, maloprodaja, visoko obrazovanje i sl.), te analizi-rali promjene u ponašanju potrošača i poslovanja, etička pitanja i aspekte povezane sa menadžerima i radnicima.

S obzirom na iznanadno i brzo širenje krize, još uvijek je malo empirijskih istraživanja na temu COVID-19 i procjene vrijednosti, performansi i vrijednosti preduzeća. Većina dosadašnjih radova bavi se komparacijom i proučavanjem prethodnih istraživanja, te svako istraživanje na ovu temu značajno doprinosi rješavanju nedoumica i problema u procjeni vrijednosti u postojećim neizvjesnim uslovima.

5.2. Metode istraživanja i izvori podataka

Razmatranje mogućih uticaja COVID-19 na procjenu vrijednosti, te performanse i poslovanje preduzeća izloženo je pregledom litera-ture i analizom prethodnih istraživanja. Uticaj COVID-19 krize na poslovanje i vrijednost preduzeća u Bosni i Hercegovini i Republici Srpskoj analiziran je uporednom metodom više istraživanja koje su sprovele međunarodne i domaće institucije. S obzirom na to da još uvijek nema sveobuhvatnih domaćih naučnih istraživanja na ovu specifičnu temu, korišćeni su podaci iz istraživanja Međunarodnog monetarnog fonda, Svjetske banke, Unije udruženja poslodavaca Republike Srpske, Fondacije Friedrich Naumann i sl. Izvršen je uvid u stanje privrednih subjekata u zemlji i posljedice krize na poslovanje i performanse preduzeća, kao i faktore koji su pokretači vrijednosti preduzeća i ključni parametri u procjeni vrijednosti. Analizirana je studija Svjetske banke koja se bavi efektima i po-sljedicama COVID-19 krize na stanje u ekonomiji i društvu zemalja Zapadnog Balkana. Drugo istraživanje koje je razmatrano uradila je Unija udruženja poslodavaca Republike Srpske na uzorku od 543 anketirana preduzeća sa 49.466 zaposlenih radnika. U studiju su uključena velika, srednja i mala preduzeća, sve vrste vlasništva (privatni, državni, strani kapital, joint venture i ostalo) i gotovo svi industrijski sektori. Poštovan je teritorijalni princip zastupljenosti distribucije uzorka. U radu je izvršena uporedna analiza i pregled dostupnih studija.

5.3. Prezentacija rezultata i diskusija

Studija Svjetske banke o uticaju COVID-19 na stanje u ekonomiji ističe ozbiljne poteškoće u ekonomskim prognozama zbog velike

neizvjesnosti i niza nepoznatih faktora. Studija je izvedena po principu scenario analize, uz dva scenarija: osnovni scenario, po kom postepeni oporavak počinje u drugoj polovini 2020, i nepovoljni scenario, uz početak oporavka ekonomske aktivnosti u posljednjem kvartalu 2020. godine (Svjetska banka, 2020). Iako su mjere vlada kao odgovori na krizu u skladu sa mjerama EU, ekonomske prilike na Zapadnom Balkanu su drugačije i teže nego u EU. Svjetska banka predviđa pad BDP-a u BiH za 3,2%−4,2% (slična situacija je u drugim zemljama Zapadnog Balkana). Prema projekcijama Fondacije Friedrich Naumann (2020), Bosna i Hercegovina će imati pad BDP-a od 3,97% do 9,53% u 2020. godini. Većina mjera država Zapadnog Balkana bavi se prvenstveno podrškom prilivu novca privrednim subjektima kako bi se ublažio rizik stečaja zbog nelikvidnosti i zaštitila radna mjesta u narednom periodu. Konkretan cilj je očuvanje prihoda i proizvodnje u industrijskim granama koje su naviše pogođene restrikcijama i ograničenom tražnjom. Prema Svjetskoj banci (2020), sektori koji nisu pretrpjeli posljedice krize jesu maloprodaja prehrambenih proizvoda, proizvodnja i prodaja lijekova, neke lične usluge i proizvodnje trajnih dobara.

Pandemija COVID-19 snažno je pogodila finansijska tržišta. Zemlje u razvoju i nerazvijena tržišta kapitala su pod još većim pritiskom zbog odliva novca u sigurnije zone. Tržišta kapitala bilježe ogromne padove berzanskih indeksa, kao i vrijednosti valuta. Oštriji uslovi zaduživanja u zemljama s velikim dugom dovode do prelijevanja rizika na korporativni sektor. Širenje nemogućnosti otplate dugova utiče na smanjenje budućih zajmova, potrošnje i investicija. Sve navedeno smanjuje ne samo profitabilnost preduzeća nego i direk-tno utiče na njihovu likvidnost, solventnost i finansijsku stabilnost. Procjena vrijednosti u ovakvim uslovima postaje izuzetno teška; uvijek treba voditi računa o tome o kojoj industrijskoj grani se radi, kakvi su izgledi datog sektora i opasnosti za prelijevanje rizika iz drugih zemalja.

Drugi dio studije Svjetske banke objavljen je u junu 2020, kao dopuna prvobitnog izvještaja iz maja 2020. U zemljama Zapadnog Balkana uticaj COVID-19 krize na korporativni sektor je veoma težak i minimalno 50% preduzeća iz najdrastičnije pogođenih sek-tora moralo je da obustavi poslovanje u nekoj mjeri, a preduzeća koja su radila zabilježila su ogroman pad aktivnosti. Čak 71,5% preduzeća je već u aprilu 2020. godine navelo da je kriza veoma negativno i ozbiljno uticala na poslovanje preduzeća. Preduzeća su navela da su u 11% slučajeva bili primorani da otpuste radnike, a čak 51,9% smatralo je da postoji opasnost da će se otpuštanja nastaviti i u daljem periodu (Svjetska banka, 2020). Broj radnih mjesta je smanjen u svim državama Zapadnog Balkana: za 11% u BiH, 5% u Srbiji, 19,8% u Sjevernoj Makedoniji, 11% u Albaniji i 29,2% na Kosovu. Iako je postojala bojazan od otpuštanja velikog broja radnika, prema analizama, ugašeno je manje radnih mjesta nego što je očekivano (Svjetska banka, 2020).

Menadžeri i vlasnici preduzeća nisu optimistični kad je u pitanju buduće poslovanje, pri čemu su u najvećim problemima mala preduzeća i preduzetnici. U malim preduzećima je došlo do zna-čajnog pada prihoda, koji je za 12% veći od prosjeka pada prihoda korporativnog sektora u BiH. COVID-19 kriza veoma je ozbiljno uticala na poslovanje malih i srednjih preduzeća odnosno na 72,4% mikropreduzeća, 67,5% malih preduzeća i 57,1% srednjih preduze-ća. Kako su se preduzeća nosila sa problemima smanjenog obima poslovanja prikazano je u grafikonu br. 1.


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of capital and the value of the lease due to material uncertainties in valuation reports.

Goodell (2020) highlighted the enormous economic and social impact of COVID-19 on financial markets and institutions by ana-lyzing works that either predicted the occurrence of such a major crisis and its economic consequences or assessed the effects of other epidemics and pandemics. Considering the characteristics of COVID-19, together with research on past events similar to the CO-VID-19 crisis, indicates the path of future research.

Using the financial data of Chinese listed companies, Shen et al. (2020) studied the impact of COVID-19 on enterprise perfor-mance. The proven negative impact of COVID-19 on companies’ performance was more pronounced when the level of invest-ment or sales revenue was lower. In the additional analysis, this negative impact was shown to be more pronounced in areas and sectors that are significantly endangered by the pandemic. Their work is among the first empirical evidence of the link between the pandemic and companies’ performance.

The COVID-19 epidemic has left serious economic consequences around the world, not only for the economy but for society as a whole, leading to dramatic changes in the behaviour of businesses and consumers. Donthu & Gustafsson (2020) provided a specific overview of all the consequences of the pandemic to contribute to global efforts addressing some pandemic-related issues. The authors have compiled an overview of 13 segments covering vari-ous industrial sectors (tourism, retail, higher education, etc.), and analyzed changes in consumers and businesses behaviour, ethical issues and aspects related to the managers and workers.

Given the sudden and rapid spread of the crisis, there is still few empirical pieces of research on COVID-19 and valuation, companies performance and assessed value. Most of the previous papers deal with the comparison and studying the previous researches, so any research on this topic significantly contributes to resolving doubts and problems of valuation in the current uncertain conditions.

5.2. Research methods and data sources

Consideration of the possible influence of COVID-19 on the valuation, performance and business operations of the companies is presented by literature review and analysis of previous research. The impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the business operations and value of companies in Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Republika Srpska is analyzed by a comparative method of several studies conducted by international and domestic institutions. Given that there is still no comprehensive national scientific research on this specific subject, used data are from studies of the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, Union Association Union of Employers of Republic Srpska, Friedrich Naumann Foundation. We make an insight into a status of business entities in the country and the consequences of the crisis on the business operations and performance of companies, as well as the factor representing the drivers of company value and the key parameters in assessing value. The study of the World Bank is analysed, dealing with the effects and consequences of COVID- 19 crisis on the economy and society of the Western Balkans. Another study which is examined is the research of the Association Union of Employers of Republic Srpska, including 543 surveyed companies with 49,466 employees. The study included large, medium and small enterprises, all types of ownership (private, state, foreign capital, joint venture, etc.) and almost all industrial sectors. The ter-ritorial principle of sample representation and distribution is re-spected. The paper presents a comparative analysis and review of available studies.

5.3. Presentation of results and discussion

World Bank study regarding the impact of COVID-19 on the econ-omy highlights the serious difficulties in economic forecasts due to high uncertainty and a series of unknown factors. The study has been performed as the scenario analysis, with two scenarios: the basic scenario projecting the gradual recovery which starts in the second half of 2020 and the unfavourable scenario with the beginning of the recovery of economic activity in the last quarter of 2020 (World Bank, 2020). Although the government measures in response to the crisis are in line with the measures the EU, the economic situation in the Western Balkans is different and more difficult than in the EU. The World Bank predicts a decline in GDP in BiH by 3.2% - 4.2% (the similar situation is in other Western Balkan countries). According to the projections of the Friedrich Naumann Foundation ( 2020), Bosnia and Herzegovina may have a GDP de-cline in a range from 3.97% to 9.53% in 2020. Most measures in the Western Balkans are primarily intended to support the money inflow to business entities to mitigate bankruptcy proceedings due to illiquidity and to protect jobs in the next period. The specific goal is to preserve revenues and production in industries affected the most by restrictions and limited demand. According to the World Bank (2020), sectors that have not been suffering from the crisis consequences are food retail, manufacturing and sales of medicines, some personal services and production of durable goods.

The COVID-19 virus pandemic has hit financial markets hard. Devel-oping countries and underdeveloped capital markets are under even greater pressure because of the money outflow to safer zones. Capital markets are recording huge declines in stock market indices, as well as currency values. Tighter borrowing conditions in high-debt countries lead to a spillover of risk to the corporate sector. The expanding inability to repay debts affects the reduction of future loans, consumption and investments. All of the above reduces, not only the profitability of companies but directly affects their liquidity, solvency and financial stability. Assessing the value in such conditions becomes extremely difficult; it should be taken into account which industry company operates in, what the prospects of a given sector are and how severe the risk of spillovers from other countries is.

The second part of the World Bank study was published in June 2020, as an addition to the original report from May 2020. In Western Balkans countries impact of COVID-19 crisis on the corporate sector has been very hard and at least 50% of companies from most drasti-cally affected sectors have been forced to suspend their business operations in some extent. The companies which have been working all the time have recorded a huge decrease in the activity. As early as April 2020, 71.5% of companies stated that the crisis had a very negative and serious impact on the company’s operations. Compa-nies stated that in 11% of cases they were forced to lay off workers, and as many as 51.9% thought that there was a danger that layoffs would continue in the future (World Bank, 2020). The number of jobs decreased in all Western Balkan countries: by 11% in Bosnia and Herzegovina, 5% in Serbia, 19.8% in Northern Macedonia, 11% in Albania and 29.2% in Kosovo. Although there existed the fear of laying off large numbers of workers, according to analyzes, fewer jobs were cut than expected (World Bank, 2020).

Managers and stockholders are not optimistic regarding future business operations, with small business and entrepreneurs dealing with the most difficult problems. Small enterprises have recorded a significant decline in revenues, which is 12% higher than the average decline in revenues of the corporate sector in BiH. The CO-VID-19 crisis has a very serious impact on the business operations of small and medium-sized enterprises: 72.4% of micro-enterprises, 67.5% of small enterprises and 57.1% of medium-sized enter-prises. How companies have been managing with the problems of the reduced business volume is shown in Graph no. 1.


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Grafikon 1. Odgovor na probleme smanjenog obima poslovanja usljed COVID-19 krize kod preduzeća u BiH

Izvor: Svjetska banka, 2020. (Fondacija 787)

Najveći problem uzrokovan COVID-19 krizom koji utiče na poslovanje i vrijednost preduzeća u BiH jeste veliki pad tražnje (72,1%). Potom slijede likvidnost i nemogućnost izmirenja obaveza prema državi (63,1%), dodatni

troškovi (28,4%) i problem naplate potraživanja (27,5%). Na strani ponude šokovi nisu previše veliki i odnose se na problem u organizaciji rada (13,6%), te pristup sirovinama i uvozu (10,3%) (Svjetska banka, 2020).

Grafikon 2. Efekti COVID-19 krize na preduzeća u BiH

Izvor: Svjetska banka, 2020. (Fondacija 787)

Istraživanje Unije udruženja poslodavaca RS (UUPRS, 2020) po-kazalo je da je samo 3% preduzeća radilo u punom kapacitetu, 31% radilo je u punom kapacitetu uz rad od kuće, dok je 39% djelimično radilo, a 26% uopšte ne radilo (u vrijeme sprovođenja istraživanja). Očekivano, najveću izloženost riziku imaju mala preduzeća (40% ovih preduzeća nije radilo), a najmanju izloženost pokazuju preduzeća sa preko 250 radnika (16% ovih preduzeća nije radilo). Sektorski posmatrano, u sektoru hotelijerstva i turizma najveći je broj preduzeća koja nisu radila – čak 95%, potom slijedi ugostiteljstvo − 53%, proizvodnja tekstila, kože i odjeće − 51%, a zatim transport i transportna oprema – 31%. Sektori u kojima je veoma malo preduzeća koja nisu radila jesu poljoprivreda, ratarstvo i šumarstvo − 0%, građevinarstvo − 2%, banke i osiguravajuća

društva − 5%, metalna industrija − 5% i IT preduzeća – 6%. U odnosu prema radnicima, kao odgovor na COVID-19 krizu, većina poslodavaca je uvela skraćeno radno vrijeme − 27%, zatim otkaz ugovora o radu – 20% i kolektivni godišnji odmor − 16%, a 12% preduzeća je čak povećalo broj radnika. Rad od kuće uvelo je 6% preduzeća, a 75% preduzeća je na neki način promijenilo ili prila-godilo poslovanje ili pružanje usluga u uslovima COVID-19 krize.

Istraživanje UUPRS potvrđuje rezultate istraživanja Svjetske banke po kom je najveći problem preduzeća smanjena tražnja − 24%, ugroženost poslovnih partnera − 22% i problem likvidnosti (novčani tokovi koji ne obezbjeđuju normalno poslovanje) − 20%. Problemi na strani ponude nisu relativno veliki.

Grafikon 3. Problemi preduzeća u RS uzrokovani COVID-19 krizom

Izvor: UUPRS, 2020.


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Graph 1: The answer to the problems of decreased volume of business operation due to COVID-19 crises in companies in BiH

Source: World Bank, 2020 (Foundation 787)

The most considerable problem caused by COVID-19 affecting the business operation and the value of the companies in BiH is the large drop in demand (72.1 %). This is followed by illiquidity and the impossibility of settling liabilities to the state (63.1 %), additional

costs (28.4%) and the problem of collection of receivables (27.5%). On the supply side, the shocks are not too substantial and relate to the problem in the organization of labour (13.6%) and access to raw materials and imports (10.3%) (World Bank, 2020).

Graph 2: Effects of the COVID-19 crisis on companies in BiH

Source: World Bank, 2020 (Foundation 787)

Research of the Association Union of Employers of Republic Srpska (UUPRS, 2020) has shown that only 3% of companies have been working at full capacity, 31% have been working at full capacity with home working, while the 39% have been working partially and 26% of companies have not been working at all (at the time of conducting the research). As expected, small companies have the highest risk exposure (40% of these companies have not worked), and companies with more than 250 workers have the lowest risk exposure (16% of these companies have not worked). Observed by sectors, the most companies which have not worked are from the hotels and tourism sector - 95%, followed by catering - 53%, textiles, leather and clothing - 51%, transport and handling equip-ment - 31%. Sectors with few companies that have not worked are agriculture, farming and, forestry - 0%, construction - 2%,

banks and insurance companies - 5%, metal industry - 5% and IT companies - 6%. Concerning workers, as a response to the COVID-19 crisis, most employers have introduced part-time work -27%, the termination of employment contracts - 20% and collec-tive annual leave - 16%. 12% of companies have even increased the number of workers. Homework has been introduced by 6% of companies. 75% of companies have changed or adjusted their business or services in some way to cope with COVID-19 crisis.

The UUPRS survey confirms the results of the World Bank research, according to which the biggest problem of companies is reduced demand - 24%, vulnerability of business partners - 22% and il-liquidity problem (cash flows that do not provide normal operations) - 20%. The supply-side problems are not relatively major.

Graph 3: The problems of companies in the Republic of Srpska caused by COVID-19 crisis

Source: UUPRS, 2020


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Preko 80% poslodavaca očekuju visok (51%) ili srednji nivo (31%) pada svojih prihoda i prodaje. Treba napomenuti da je ovo očekivanje zasnovano na pretpostavci da će se kriza završiti do juna 2020. godine. Kako kriza još uvijek traje, nije vjerovatno da će doći do poboljšanja ovih očekivanja. Očekivano, najveći pad prihoda ostvaren je u industrijskim granama hotelijerstva, ugostiteljstva, transporta i proizvodnje tekstila, kože i odjeće. Jedino se u IT sektoru očekuje

rast prihoda s obzirom na veliko povećanje korišćenja rada na daljinu, onlajn poslovanja i interneta. Pad prihoda iznad 500.000 KM očekivalo je čak 20% menadžera i poslodavaca, a 25% pad prihoda između 100.000 KM i 500.000 KM; 16% poslodavaca očekivalo je pad prihoda u opsegu od 50.000 KM do 100.000 KM, 19% poslodavaca pad prihoda od 10.000 KM do 50.000 KM, a 12% njih pad prihoda manji od 10.000 KM.

Grafikon 4. Uticaj pada prihoda/prodaje izazvanog COVID-19 krizom na poslovanje preduzeća

Izvor: UUPRS, 2020.

Najveći broj preduzeća smatra da im treba između jednog i tri mjeseca za oporavak (31%), te između 90 i 180 dana (21%). Čak 16% preduzeća smatra da će im za normalizaciju poslovanja trebati

preko šest mjeseci. Prema istraživanju, 69% preduzeća u Republici Srpskoj trenutno nema plan kontinuiteta poslovanja.

Grafikon 5. Vremenski period potreban da se poslovanje vrati na pretkrizni nivo nakon završetka COVID-19 krize

Izvor: UUPRS, 2020.

Veliki problem preduzeća jesu izvori finansiranja. Samo 11% pre-duzeća ima sopstvene izvore finasiranja u vidu gotovine ili štednje, a 41% može da se dodatno zadužuje, dok 43% preduzeća nema

pristup nikakvim dodatnim izvorima finansiranja koji bi se mogli iskoristiti za vrijeme krize.

Grafikon 6. Pristup preduzeća u RS izvorima finansiranja u cilju oporavka od posljedica COVID-19 krize

Izvor: UUPRS, 2020.

Kada su u pitanju radni odnosi, 94% preduzeća nije smanjilo broj zasposlenih radnika, a 83% ne planira otpuštanja ni u narednom periodu. U odnosu na ukupan broj radnika preduzeća, broj otpušte-nih radnika je između 1% i 10% u 78% slučajeva (UUPRS, 2020).

Ostala istraživanja o uticaju COVID-19 obrađuju samo određena područja ili su vezana za sam početak krize. Preliminarno istra-živanje obavljeno na Ekonomskom fakultetu u Sarajevu (Peštek, 2020, prema Friedrich Naumann Stiftung, 2020) pokazalo je da je


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Over 80% of employers expect a high (51%) or medium (31%) drop in their income and sales. It should be noted that this expectation is based on the assumption that the crisis will end by June 2020. As the crisis is still ongoing, it is unlikely that these expectations will improve. As expected, the largest decline in revenues has been performed in the industries of hotels, catering, transport and production of textiles, leather and clothing. Only in the IT sector revenue growth is expected given the large increase in the use of

teleworking, online doing business and the internet. The decrease in revenue amounting above 500,000 KM has been expected by 20% of managers and employers, and a decrease in revenue between 100,000 and 500,000 KM by 25% of them. 16% of employers have expected a drop in income in the range of 50,000 to 100,000 KM, 19% of employers a drop in income from 10,000 to 50,000 KM, and 12% of them a drop in income of fewer than 10,000 KM.

Graph 4: Impact of a drop in revenues/sales caused by the COVID-19 crisis on the company’s business operations

Source: UUPRS, 2020

Most companies believe that they need between one and three months to recover (31%), following expected recovery between 90 and 180 days (21%). As many as 16% of companies observe that

they will need over 6 months to normalize their business opera-tions. According to the survey, 69% of companies in the Republic of Srpska currently do not have a business continuity plan.

Graph 5: Time required for a business to return to pre-crisis level after the end of the COVID-19 crisis

Source: UUPRS, 2020

A considerable problem for companies is the sources of financing. Only 11% of companies have their sources of financing in the form of cash or savings, and 41% can borrow an additional amount of

funds. 43% of companies do not have access to any additional sources of financing that they could use during the crisis.

Graph 6: Companies in Republic of Srpska access to sources of financing to recover from the consequences of the COVID-19 crisis

Source: UUPRS, 2020

In terms of labour relations, 94% of companies have not reduced the number of employees, and 83% do not plan layoffs in the coming period. The number of laid-off workers is between 1% - 10% in 78% of cases, to the total number of employees in the company (UUPRS, 2020).

Other studies of the impact of COVID-19 cover only certain areas or are related to the very beginning of the crisis. Preliminary research conducted at the Faculty of Economics in Sarajevo (Peštek, 2020 according to Friedrich Naumann Stiftung, 2020) showed there has been a huge drop in activity from 61% to 100% in 81.1% of


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u oblasti turizma došlo do ogromnog pada aktivnosti od 61% do čak 100% kod 81,1% ispitanih preduzeća. Takođe, 79,4% ispitanih očekivalo je isti pad obima poslovanja u narednom periodu. Portal Klix.ba je uradio istraživanje anketiranjem 1.685 ispitanika o uticaju COVID-19 na njihov posao: 41,4% je odgovorilo da kriza nije uticala direktno na njihovo radno mjesto, ali je uticala na preduzeće u kom su zaposleni; 20% anketiranih je izjavilo da su privremeno ostali bez posla; a 17,1% je trajno izgubilo posao. Samo 21,6% ispitanika je izjavilo da kriza nije ostavila posljedice niti na njihov posao, niti na preduzeće (Friedrich Naumann Stiftung, 2020).

Sprovedena istraživanja u Bosni i Hercegovini pokazuju da je kor-porativni sektor veoma pogođen COVID-19 krizom. Sva preduzeća osjećaju posljedice pandemije, u manjoj ili većoj mjeri, što zavisi od ostalih karakteristika i stanja preduzeća prije izbijanja krize. Očigledno je da navedeni faktori, koji utiču na pad poslovanja, utiču i na vrijednost preduzeća. U procjenama vrijednosti stoga treba uzeti u obzir karakteristike preduzeća, njegovu veličinu, profitabilnost i solventnost preduzeća u pretkriznom periodu, te industrijski sektor u kom preduzeće posluje. Sve navedeno će imati uticaja na buduće poslovanje preduzeća, što je ključni faktor u procjeni relevantne vri-jednosti u trenutnim teškim uslovima poslovanja u zemlji i u svijetu.

ZAKLJUČAK

Svjetska epidemija COVID-19, s ekonomske tačke gledišta, ima mnogobrojne posljedice: kolaps globalnog tržišta kapitala, rast volatilnosti, ugrožavanje lanaca nabavke i prodaje usljed zatvaranja ekonomija, prekidanje proizvodnje, zatvaranje preduzeća, gubitak radnih mjesta i budžetske deficite, što je značajno uticalo na gu-bljenje povjerenja javnosti u ekonomske mjere i finansijska tržišta. COVID-19 kriza je uticala na poslovanje, prihode i dobit preduzeća, s jedne, i na parametre tržišta kapitala, s druge strane. Procjenji-vačka praksa se susreće s veoma izazovnim vremenima, budući da treba da obezbijedi relevantne procjene vrijednosti s ograničenim i neuporedivim informacijama, dok se istovremeno tržišta kapitala suočavaju s nesigurnošću budućeg funkcionisanja (BDO, 2020). Procjenjivači treba da kritički razmotre da li i na koji način mogu da uključe ove kompleksne promjene u svoje procjene vrijednosti.

Bez obzira na uticaj krize, nije potrebno odustajati od najčešće korišćenih metoda procjene: metode diskontovanja novčanih to-kova i tržišnih metoda procjene zasnovanih na multiplikatorima. Neke od determinanti i pokretača vrijednosti pogođeni su krizom i zahtijevaju prilagođavanje, a finansijske prognoze su komplek-snije i izvode se uz pomoć metoda scenarija. Većina dostupnih podataka i pokazatelja odnosi se na period prije COVID-19 krize, zbog čega se kompleksnost i neizvjesnost s kojom se suočavaju procjenjivači povećava. Način za rješavanje problema nedostatka relevantnih inputa jesu normalizacija multiplikatora, ekstrapolacija podataka iz dostupnih cijena slične aktive i uključivanje inputa koji nisu odmah vidljivi. Novčani tokovi se projektuju korištenjem makroekonomskih i industrijskih prognoza i detaljnije analize od uobičajene. Multiscenario je pristup je način da se prevaziđu neizvjesnosti u projektovanju novčanih tokova kako bi se pokrili potencijalni ishodi krize i mogućnosti oporavka (pesimistički, op-timistički i najvjerovatniji scenario). Kada se koriste multiplikatori u tržišnim metodoma, koji su globalno u trendu opadanja, treba voditi računa o datoj industrijskoj grani i tržištu, jer nisu svi isto pogođeni pandemijom. Diskontne stope treba revidirati uvažavajući pad bezrizičnih stopa, povećano zaduživanje privrednih subjekata, pakete vlada za podstek privredi, tržišni rizik i premije specifične za dato preduzeće/ industrijsku granu.

Sprovedena istraživanja u Bosni i Hercegovini pokazuju da je kor-porativni sektor veoma pogođen COVID-19 krizom. Očigledno je da navedeni faktori, koji utiču na pad poslovanja, utiču i na vrijednost preduzeća. U procjenama vrijednosti stoga treba uzeti u obzir sektor karakteristike preduzeća, njegovu veličinu, profitabilnost i solventnost preduzeća u pretkriznom periodu, te industrijski sektor u kom preduzeće posluje.

Ključni inputi procjene, kao što su budući novčani tokovi, leveridž, diskontna stopa, stopa rasta i rezidualne vrijednosti procjenjuju se za svako preduzeće posebno, te nije moguće izvući jedan gene-ralni zaključak o načinu na koji treba izvršiti procjenu vrijednosti u uslovima pandemije. U vrijeme velike neizvjesnosti, svakako je preporučljivo koristiti što više metoda za procjenu kako bi se umanjile greške kojima je svaka od njih podložna, uzeti u obzir što više dostupnih i teže uočljivih faktora te sprovesti analizu osjetljivosti ključnih determinanti vrijednosti. Procjena vrijednosti u današnje krizno vrijeme zahtijeva stručnost, široko sagledavanje svih okolnosti i faktora, stručni sud, intuciju i profesionalni skep-ticizam procjenjivača.

IZVORI

1. AICPA. (2020). AICPA offers insight for valuing businesses affected by COVID-19. Preuzeto 14.09.2020 sa https://www.aicpa.org/press/pressreleases/2020/aicpa-offers-insight-for-valuing-businesses-affected-by-covid-19.html

2. Bartl, M. The impact of the covid-19-crisis on business valu-ation. BDO Global.

3. Bartl, M., & Gleißner, W. (2020). Unternehmensbewertung: Marktrisikoprämie in Österreich. CFOaktuell

4. Bartl, M., & Patloch-Kofler, M. (2019). Negativer Basiszins in der Unternehmensbewertung. RWZ, 29(5).

5. BDO. (2020). Covid-19: what impact on valuation? Preuzeto 27.08.09.2020 sa https://www.bdo.be/fr-be/publications/articles/2020/covid-19-what-impact-on-valuation

6. Bretscher, L., Hsu, A., Simasek, P. & Tamoni A. (2020).COVID-19 and the Cross-Section of Equity Returns: Impact and Transmi-ssion. Georgia Tech Scheller College of Business Research Paper No. 3588418

7. Damodaran, A. (2020). Damodaran Online. Preuzeto 06.10.2020 sa: http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/

8. Dirk Schoenmaker, D., Henk Jan Reinders, H. & A Van Dijk, M. (2020). Is COVID-19 a threat to financial stability in Europe? Financial Economics. Discussion Paper Series. London: Centre for Economic Policy Research

9. Donthu, N. & Gustafsson, A. (2020). Effects of COVID-19 on business and research. Journal of Business Research, 117, 284-289. doi: 10.1016/j.jbusres.2020.06.008

10. Duff & Phelps. (2020). Protect, Restore and Maximize Value. Preuzeto 08.09.2020 sa: https://www.duffandphelps.com/

11. French, N. (2020). Property valuation in the UK: material uncertainty and COVID-19. Journal of Property Investment & Finance,38(5), 463-470. doi:10.1108/JPIF-05-2020-0053

12. Friedrich Naumann Stiftung (2020). COVID-19 Ekonomske posljedice za Bosnu i Hercegovinu, mjere i rješenja. Sarajevo: Friedrich Naumann Stiftung Western Balkans


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surveyed companies in the tourism sector. Also, 79.4% of respon-dents expected the same decline in business volume in the next period. Portal Klix.ba surveyed by surveying 1,685 respondents on the impact of COVID-19 on their work. 41.4% of respondents answered that the crisis had not directly affected their workplace, but had affected the company in which they are employed. 20% of respondents said they had temporarily lost their jobs, and 17.1% had lost their jobs permanently. Only 21.6% of respondents stated that the crisis had had no consequences either for their workplace or for their company (Friedrich Naumann Stiftung, 2020).

Conducted researches in Bosnia and Herzegovina show that the corporate sector is highly affected by the COVID-19 crisis. All companies feel the consequences of the pandemic, to a greater or lesser extent, depending on other characteristics and the state of the company before the crisis broke out. It is obvious that the stated factors affecting the decline of business operations, also affect the value of the company. The valuations should therefore reconsider the characteristics of the company, its size, profitability and solvency of the company in the pre-crisis period, and the in-dustrial sector which the company operates in. All of the above will have an impact on the future business operations of the company, which is a key factor in assessing the relevant value in the current difficult business conditions in the country and the world.

CONCLUSION

Worldwide COVID-19 epidemic, from an economic point of view, has many consequences: the collapse of the global capital market, vola-tility growth, endangering the chains of procurement and sales due to the closure of economies, interruption of production, closure of businesses, jobs losses and budget deficits, which significantly affected the loss of public confidence in economic measures and financial markets. The COVID-19 crisis hit the business operations, revenues and profits of the companies, on the one hand, and the parameters of the capital market, on the other hand. Valuation practice has very challenging time, as it is up to valuation to provide relevant valuations with limited and incomparable infor-mation, while at the same time capital markets face uncertainty about future functioning (BDO, 2020). Appraisers should critically consider whether and how they may incorporate these complex changes into their valuations.

Regardless of the impact of the crisis, it is not necessary to give up on the most commonly used valuation methods: discounted cash flow methods and market valuation methods based on multipli-ers. Some of the determinants and value drivers are affected by the crisis and require adjustment, while the financial forecasts are more complex and performed by the multi-scenario method. Most of the available data and indicators refer to the period before the COVID-19 crisis, which is why the complexity and uncertainty faced by appraisers are increasing. The way to solve the problem of lacking the relevant inputs is a normalization of multipliers, ex-trapolation of data from the available prices of similar assets and the inclusion of inputs which are not immediately visible. Cash flows are projected using macroeconomic and industrial forecasts and more detailed analysis than usual. The multi-scenario approach is a mode to overcome uncertainties in the projection of cash flows to cover the potential outcomes of the crisis and the possibilities for recovery (pessimistic, optimistic and the most probable scenario). When using globally declining multipliers in market methods, one should have in mind the given industry and market, because every company is not equally affected by the pandemic. Discount rates

should be revised to take into account the fall in risk-free rates, increased corporate indebtedness, government stimulus packages, market risk and company / industry-specific premiums.

Researches conducted in Bosnia and Herzegovina show that the corporate sector has been hit hard by the COVID-19 crisis. It is obvious that these factors, affecting the decline in business, also affect the value of the company. The valuations should therefore respect the company’s characteristics, its size, profitability and solvency of the company in the pre-crisis period, and the industrial sector which the company operates in.

Key valuation inputs such as future cash flows, leverage, discount rates, growth rates and residual value are estimated in for each company separately, so it is not possible to draw a general conclu-sion about the way an assessment of the value should be done in pandemic conditions. In the time of great uncertainty, it is certainly advisable to use as many valuation methods as possible to reduce errors each of them is subject to, regard the more accessible and hardly observable factors and conduct a sensitivity analysis of key-value determinants. Valuation, in terms of crisis, requires the broad view of all circumstances and factors, expert judgment, intuition and the professional scepticism of the appraiser.

REFERENCES

1. AICPA. (2020). AICPA offers insight for valuing businesses affected by COVID-19. Retrieved 14.09.2020 from https://www.aicpa.org/press/pressreleases/2020/aicpa-offers-insight-for-valuing-businesses-affected-by-covid-19.html

2. Bartl, M. The impact of the covid-19-crisis on business valu-ation. BDO Global.

3. Bartl, M., & Gleißner, W. (2020). Unternehmensbewertung: Marktrisikoprämie in Österreich. CFOaktuell

4. Bartl, M., & Patloch-Kofler, M. (2019). Negativer Basiszins in der Unternehmensbewertung. RWZ, 29(5).

5. BDO. (2020). Covid-19: what impact on valuation? Retrieved 27.08.09.2020 from https://www.bdo.be/fr-be/publications/articles/2020/covid-19-what-impact-on-valuation

6. Bretscher, L., Hsu, A., Simasek, P. & Tamoni A. (2020).COVID-19 and the Cross-Section of Equity Returns: Impact and Transmi-ssion. Georgia Tech Scheller College of Business Research Paper No. 3588418

7. Damodaran, A. (2020). Damodaran Online. Retrieved 06.10.2020 from: http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/

8. Dirk Schoenmaker, D., Henk Jan Reinders, H. & A Van Dijk, M. (2020). Is COVID-19 a threat to financial stability in Europe? Financial Economics. Discussion Paper Series. London: Centre for Economic Policy Research

9. Donthu, N. & Gustafsson, A. (2020). Effects of COVID-19 on business and research. Journal of Business Research, 117, 284-289. doi: 10.1016/j.jbusres.2020.06.008

10. Duff & Phelps. (2020). Protect, Restore and Maximize Value. Retrieved 08.09.2020 from: https://www.duffandphelps.com/

11. French, N. (2020). Property valuation in the UK: material uncertainty and COVID-19. Journal of Property Investment & Finance,38(5), 463-470. doi:10.1108/JPIF-05-2020-0053


42

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en/486361588146392647/WB-RER17-The-Economic-and-Social-Impact-of-COVID-19-Outlook-Hard-Times-Require-Go-od-Economics.pdf

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12. Friedrich Naumann Stiftung (2020). COVID-19 Ekonomske posljedice za Bosnu i Hercegovinu, mjere i rješenja. Sarajevo: Friedrich Naumann Stiftung Western Balkans

13. Goodell. J. W. (2020). COVID-19 and finance: Agendas for future research. Finance Research Letters, 35. doi: 10.1016/j.frl.2020.101512

14. International Valuation Standards Council [IVSC]. (2020). Re-trieved 18.09.2020 from: https://www.ivsc.org/news/article/statement-in-relation-to-the-covid-19-pandemic

15. PwC.(2020). The impact of COVID-19 on valuations. UK: Author. Available at: https://www.pwc.co.uk/issues/crisis-and-resilien-ce/covid-19/the-impact-of-covid-19-on-valuations.html

16. Shen, H. et al. (2020). The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Firm Performance. Journal Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 56, Issue 10: Special Issue: Research on Pandemics. doi: 10.1080/1540496X.2020.1785863

17. World Bank. (2020). Economic and social impact of CO-VID-19. Outlook for the Western Balkans. Economic Report

No.17. Retrieved 11.10.2020. from: http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/486361588146392647/WB-RER17-The-Economic-and- Social-Impact-of-COVID-19-Outlook-Hard-Times-Requi-re-Good-Economics-Bosnian.pdf

18. The Technical Committee for Company Valuation and Business Administration of the IDW. [FAUB]. (2020). New FAUB cost of capital recommendations. Retrieved 21.09.2020. from: https://www.idw.de/idw/idw-aktuell/neue-kapitalkostenempfehlungen-des-faub/120158

19. Unija udruženja poslodavaca Republike Srpske [UUPRS] (2020). Uticaj COVID-19 na poslovanje u Republici Srpskoj. UUPRS, Banja Luka

20. Valentiam Group. (2020). Financial Impact Of COVID-19: Valu-ation Modifications. Retrieved 5.10.2020. from: https://www.valentiam.com/newsandinsights/financial-impact-of-covid-19

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