Urbanism in the age of climate change
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Transcript of Urbanism in the age of climate change
China’s Development ChallengeChina’s Development Challenge
USA Development ChallengeUSA Development Challenge
86%
48%
37%
12%11%
42%
52%
65%
03%10% 11%
22%
00%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
UnitedStates France Sweden China
Auto Walk/Bike Transit
美国 法国 瑞典 中国
Transportation Mode By Country
Portland Metro 2040
Portland Metro Region VMT
National Average
Portland Region
Source: State Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS); Federal Highway Administration, USDOT
Daily VMT in the Portland region declined 11% from 1996 to 2002, compared to a 6% increasenationally
Vision California
%%
Population change, 2006-2035
Jobs change, 2006-2035
31%41%
26%60%
86%102%
30%40%
49%61%
29%-
29%-
53%-
65%- 60%71%
24%40%
28%47%16%27%
Scenarios and Metrics
Trend Blueprints
1,6291,325
2,076
-1,000
-500
00
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Multifamily Townhouse Small Lot Large Lot
Tho
usan
ds
New Units Needed by 2035
-1,650
California Housing Demand 2035
Four Largest MPOs Only – SCAG, SANDAG, MTC, SACOG
Preliminary Do Not
Duplicate
Source: AC Nelson. The Shape of Metropolitan California in the 21st Century: Outlook to 2020 and 2035
5%25%
70%
35%
55%
10%
Urban Compact Standard
Growing Smart
Two California Futures
Business As Usual
Urban Infill - Oakland Uptown
Same
Compact Development - Stapleton
same
Standard Suburban
45%30%
20%23%
10%14%
25% 33%
Business As Usual Growing Smart
Housing Product Mix2050 Total
Large Lot
Small Lot
Attached
Multifamily
53%65%
Land Consumed For New Growth to 2050 (mi2)
More land than Delaware and Rhode Island combined
5,600
1,850
Business As Usual Growing Smart
3,750 square miles saved
A1 v C1/C2
$165.4
$133.4
Business As Usual Growing Smart
Dol
lars
Bill
ions
Infrastructure Cost for New Growth Capital Costs for New Growth to 2050
$4,000 Saved per New Housing Unit : $710 Million/Year
$32 Billion Saved*
Flickr: sl-engineer *Includes local roads, waste water and sanitary sewer, water supply, and parks & recreation
A1 v C1/C2
$84.9
$69.9
Business As Usual Growing Smart
Dol
lars
Bill
ions
O&M Costs for New Growth Engineering & Public Works Costs for New Growth to 2050
$15 Billion Saved : $334 Million Per Year
$15 Billion Saved
Flickr: watchlooksee *Includes City General Fund engineering and public works functions
A1 v C1/C2
$744.2
$864.5
Business As Usual Growing Smart
Dol
lars
Bill
ions
Revenues from New Growth City Tax and Fee Revenue from New Growth to 2050
$2.7 Billion/Year in Additional Revenue to Cities
$120 Billion More *
www.livinginplainfield.com *Includes City revenues from Vehicle License Fees, Property Tax, and Sales Tax
A1 v C1/C2
74 Quad Btu
58 Quad Btu
Business As Usual Growing Smart
BTU
Qua
drill
ion
Building Energy Cumulative to 2050
Would Power ALL Homes in California for 20 Years
15 Quadrillion BTUs Saved
Flickr: arbyreed
A1 v C2
328
250
Business As Usual Growing SmartA
cre
Feet
Mill
ions
Residential Water Use Cumulative to 2050
78 Million Acre Feet
Saved
Water Savings Could Fill the San Francisco Bay 15 Times
A1 v C2
27,557
17,041
Business As Usual Growing Smart
Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Miles Per Household in 2050
10,500 Fewer Miles Per Household
Flickr: trash-photography
A1 v C1/C2
750
473
Business As Usual Growing Smart
Gal
lons
Bill
ions
Auto Fuel Consumed Cumulative to 2050
Equivalent to more than 3 years of oil imports to the US
277 Billion Gallons Saved
A1 v C2
Business As Usual Growing Smart
Home Energy &WaterAuto Fuel +Ownership
Annual Household Costs Per Household Annual in 2050
$10,500 Savings Per Household in 2050
Flickr: Diablo_Solar
$ 21,000
$ 10,500
A1 v C2
Business As Usual Growing Smart
Respiratory Health CostsTotal Annual in 2035
Saves $1.66 billion annually by 2035
Flickr: Lance Page
$1.66 billess than BAU
A1 v C1/C2
Based on Analysis of Vision CA Results by TIAX, LLC
Greenhouse Gas Emissions Annual in 2050
Emissions offset by 90,000 square miles of trees in a year. A forest covering more than1/2 of California.
156
28
117
55
Business AsUsual
Growing Smart
Passenger Vehicles Buildings
191 MMT Reduced/Year
New York Times
www.exuberance.com
A1 v C2
China’s Development ChallengeChina’s Development Challenge
Mode Split by Neighborhood Type
建设步行优先的邻里社区Develop neighborhoods that promote walking
1
Chongqing, China
优先发展自行车网络Prioritize bicycle networks 2
Bike-prioritized Intersection
创建密集的街道网络Create dense networks of streets and paths
3
Recommended: Dense networks of streets and paths建议:创建密集的街道网络
Discouraged: Arterial-dominant street network不提倡:宽马路为主的干道网络
支持高质量的公共交通服务Support high-quality transit
4
Guangzhou
建设多功能混合的 邻里社区Zone for mixed-use neighborhoods5
将土地开发强度和公共交通承载力相匹配Match density to transit capacity
6
In Curitiba, Brazil, high-rise development is focused within 200 meters of mass transit lines. 在巴西的库里提巴, 高层建筑距离大众公交线路不会超过200米。
In Guangzhou, density is focused around the BRT corridor. The system’s capacity matches commute-hour transit demand.在广州, 捷运走廊附近的密度较集中。系统能力和通勤时间的运输需求相匹配。
确保紧凑型发展,提倡短程通勤Create compact regions with short commutes
7
Kunming Regional Growth昆明区域发展
规范停车和道路使用,增加出行便利性Increase mobility by regulating parking and road use
8
Cities may choose to charge tolls for use of overloaded roads.城市可对拥堵路段征收过路费。
Singapore’s Electronic Road Pricing system has cut congestion and raised money for public transit and other uses.新加坡的电子道路收费系统可减轻拥堵情况
Chongqing
Study Area
Disperse Traffic on One-Way Couplets
Add Car-Free Streets
Add Local Streets
Superblocks超大街区
通过单向二分路分散交通流
添加非机动车线路
添加辅路
Circulation and StreetsDesign Challenge设计挑战
YUELAI ECOLOGICAL CITY悦来生态城
Current and Proposed Plan Comparison
Yuelai : Superblock悦来生态城:超大街区
Yuelai : Urban Network悦来生态城:城市格网
现有规划与新版规划对比
Work with the Site’s Natural Features结合场地自然特色
San Gimignano, Italy意大利 圣吉米纳诺
Open Space
悦来生态城市Yuelai Eco-City Phase 1
开放空间
Create a Walkable and Bikeable Community营造适宜步行与自行车的社区
Create WalkableStreet Networks
Auto‐free Street
营造适宜步行的街道网络
步行街/慢行道
Create WalkableStreet Networks
Hillside PedestrianSystem
营造适宜步行的街道网络
坡地步行系统
Ellipse Gateway
悦来生态城市Yuelai Eco-City Phase 1
椭圆门户广场
Yuelai Urban Network Comparison
Yuelai : Superblock悦来生态城:超大街区
Yuelai : Urban Network悦来生态城:城市格网