ttbar τ + jets : Update on QCD Estimation
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Transcript of ttbar τ + jets : Update on QCD Estimation
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ttbar τ + jets:Update on QCD Estimation
William EdsonSUNY at Albany
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Intra-PDF Uncertainty Results
CT10: ± 2.32093
MSTW: + 1.29293 / - 1.38225
NNPDF: ± 1.20644
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Envelope Results
Therefore the final uncertainty is equivalent to the CT10 Intra Unc: ± 2.32093
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Unc Var. Up (pb) Var. Down (pb)
Linear Corrrection 9.83 9.83
JER 3.83 3.83
JRE 0.04 0.04
JES 19.83 18.86
JVF SF 0.76 0.74
Btag SF 4.27 3.92
MET 4.62 5.31
Tau Trigger SF 4.22 5.38
TES 1.79 1.79
Tau Eveto SF 0.04 0.04
W+jets Normalization 11.06 10.63
QCD Selection 4.80 4.80
QCD Template Bin/Range 4.77 9.02
MC Generator 11.34 11.34
ISR/FSR 7.39 7.39
PDF 2.32 2.32
Trigger Efficiency 4.83 8.00
TauID 4.00 4.00
Lumi 3.00 3.00
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Unc Var. Up (percent)
Var. Down (percent)
Group 1-prong Up
Group 1-prong Down
Linear Corrrection
5.90 5.90 - -
JER 2.30 2.30 1.0 1.0
JRE 0.02 0.02 1.0 1.0
JES 11.90 11.32 10.0 10.8
JVF SF 0.45 0.44 < 1 < 1
Btag SF 2.56 2.35 2.0 2.0
MET 2.77 3.19 < 1 < 1
Tau Trigger SF 2.53 3.22 5.5 4.7
TES 1.08 1.08 2.1 2.1
Tau Eveto SF 0.03 0.03 - -
W+jets Normalization
6.64 6.37 4.1 4.1
QCD Template Shape
2.88 2.88 1.8 1.8
QCD Template Bin/Range
2.86 5.41 5.1 5.1
MC Generator 6.80 6.80 4.2 4.2
ISR/FSR 4.43 4.43 3.1 3.1
PDF 1.39 1.39 2 2
Trigger Efficiency
2.9 4.8 2.9 4.8
TauID 2.4 2.4 4 4
Lumi 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8
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Fit Selection Results
Final Result:
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Back-up
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QCD Bin/RangeSample Fraction Cor.
Fractionσ Variation Variation
(%)
Nominal 0.691497 0.69115844 166.7161572 - -
Range+1 0.685245 0.685212649 165.2819571 -1.43420016 -0.860264648
Range+2 0.684087 0.684111365 165.0163135 -1.69984376 -1.019603494
Range+3 0.680152 0.680369092 164.1136299 -2.60252733 -1.561052853
Range-1 0.708654 0.707475131 170.6519493 3.9357921 2.360774244
Range-2 0.674656 0.675142273 162.8528551 -3.86330214 -2.317293177
Range-3 0.686839 0.686728578 165.6476184 -1.06853877 -0.640932939
Bins+1 0.712367 0.711006277 171.5037064 4.787549171 2.871676777
Bins+2 0.66001 0.6612136 159.4930829 -7.2230743 -4.332558059
Bins-1 0.652323 0.653903091 157.7296957 -8.98646149 -5.390276285
Bins-2 0.680357 0.680564051 164.1606566 -2.55550061 -1.532845199
Range increases/decreases in steps of 20GeVBin amount increases/decreases in steps of 5
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MC Generator
Sample Fraction Cor. Fraction
σ Variation (absolute)
Variation (%)
Nominal0.691497 0.69115844 166.7161572 - -
AlpHerwig (baseline) 0.704682 0.70369767 141.7262448 13.69472173 8.214393829MC@NLO (105200) 0.691497 0.69115844 166.7161572 11.29519073 6.775102618
SYST_AtF_105860 0.721128 0.719338184 147.5099697 4.809637762 2.884925998
SYST_AtF_117050 0.663466 0.664500333 142.700332 - -
SYST_Full_117050 0.696679 0.696086638 155.4209665 - -
1.1) fullsim mc11c POWHEG+fPythia sample 117050 (SYST_Full_117050) and MC@NLO+fHerwig sample 105200 (MC@NLO(105200)) 1.2) fullsim mc11c POWHEG+fPythia sample 117050 (SYST_Full_117050) and the fullsim mc11c ALPGEN+HERWIG samples (AlpHerwig(baseline)) 1.3) AtlFast2 mc11b POWHEG+fPythia sample 117050 (SYST_AtF_117050) POWHEG+fHerwig sample 105860 (SYST_AtF_105860)
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Mean Values of Ensemble Fits
Input Fraction
Previous Gaussian
Mean Output Fraction
Unc. Gaussian Mean
Output Fraction
Unc.
0.1 -0.0998291 0.00487524 -0.0446980 0.00328233
0.2 0.0501427 0.00241776 0.0951311 0.00259107
0.3 0.204145 0.00187353 0.238714 0.00232490
0.4 0.335251 0.00170598 0.375513 0.00173264
0.5 0.460622 0.00147548 0.493003 0.00146445
0.6 0.580640 0.00134429 0.604560 0.00130854
0.7 0.689419 0.00114811 0.710087 0.00111043
0.8 0.794341 0.00116489 0.805370 0.00103862
0.9 0.894616 0.00111430 0.903587 0.000966135
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Linearity Test to All Values
Y(0): -0.127757 ± 0.00142161 Slope: 1.18358 ± 0.00252649 Chi2: 34.4482 NDF: 8997
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Adjust Range for Linear Fit?
Range Y(0) Slope Corrected σ
0.1 – 0.9 -0.127757
1.18358 166.9633031
0.2 – 0.9 -0.100011
1.14196 167.1877651
0.3 – 0.9 -0.066934
2
1.0947 167.1171989
0.4 – 0.9 -0.035256
1
1.0515 166.7161572
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Top Mass
Sample Fraction Cor. Fraction
σ Variation (absolute)
Variation (%)
Nominal0.691497 0.69115844 166.7161572 - -
SYST_Full_117050 0.696679 0.696086638 155.4209665 - - 167.5
0.680298 0.680507941 174.4111694 18.99020294 11.39073936170.0
0.689551 0.689307751 163.0755472 7.654580765 4.591385078175.0
0.694819 0.694317737 147.5410892 -7.87987725 -4.726522839177.5
0.673263 0.673817499 136.8370372 -18.5839292 -11.14704751
𝑠𝑓=(𝜎 (𝑛𝑜𝑚𝑟𝑒𝑓 . ) {=177.31 }𝜎 (𝑟𝑒𝑓 )𝑖 )∗𝑘𝑓𝑎𝑐 𝑖∗𝜎 (𝐹𝐸 )𝑖∗( 𝐿𝑢𝑚𝑖
𝑁 𝑖𝑛𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑎𝑙)
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MC Tau PlotsMC Tau Count MC Tau Children
pdgIDMC Tau Children Count
Leptonic pdgID values: e → 11, μ → 13, τ → 15
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MT Signal vs Control vs MC Backgrounds
Samples Normalized to Own Integrals
Samples Normalized to Sum of Integrals
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Fits/Hists for Ensemble Tests
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Cutflow C0: GRL C1: Trigger C2: Primary vertex with ntracks > 4 C3: Electron/muon overlap C4: Jet cleaning C5: Lepton Veto C6: tau n ≥ 1 C7: njets >= 4 with eta < 2.5 and |jvf| > 0.75 C8: MET > 60GeV C9: MT < 80GeV C10: >= 1 bjet
C11: Trigger matched tau n ≥ 1 and pT >= 40GeV C12: MC tau object match
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Chi-squared minimization
Equation:
N(x): total number of events of type x for distribution n(x)i: number of events in bin of type x frac(Sig): fraction of N(Remain) expected to be Signal binfrac(x)i: fraction of events in bin of type x expected
from MC or template σi: uncertainty in bin i
2
i
iiii2
σ
)n(OB)D)binfrac(QC*N(Remain)*frac(QCD)g)binfrac(si*N(Remain)*(frac(Sig)n(Data)χ
N(OB) - N(Data) N(Remain)
frac(Sig) - 1 frac(QCD)
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Chi-squared minimization cont.
σi determined using factors for: bin error:
data signal, MC QCD template other backgrounds, MC
statistical error: data: signal region other backgrounds, MC signal, MC QCD template (uncertainty of background region
data and all MC background region carried through via default SumW2
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Highest pT bjet reconstruction
Results for plot: chi-square: 9.818 p-value: 0.7753 ndf: 14 chi/ndf: 0.7012
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2nd Highest pT bjet reconstruction
Results for plot: chi-square: 13.66 p-value: 0.5517 ndf: 15 chi/ndf: 0.9107
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Dijet Mass reconstruction
Results for plot: chi-square: 15.47 p-value: 0.6297 ndf: 18 chi/ndf: 0.8594
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MET
Results for plot: chi-square: 15.87 p-value: 0.1971 ndf: 12 chi/ndf: 1.323
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Closest pT bjet reconstruction
Results for plot: chi-square: 14.39 p-value: 0.2123 ndf: 11 chi/ndf: 1.308
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New Event Selection Verification (Only uses MC so Excludes QCD)
Cut Sig Evts
Fakes Sig Eff. Fake Ratio
Rej Fact.
Sig/sqrt(Bkg
d)
Sig/Sqrt(Sig
+Bkgd)
C5Lep Veto
5863 1451086
- - - 4.867 4.857
C6ntaus >
0
5863 138276 1 0.09529 0.04240 15.77 15.44
C7njets
3191 11025 0.5443 0.07973 0.5318 30.39 26.76
C8MET
2583 7598 0.8095 0.6892 0.41998 29.63 25.60
C9MT
1892 3968 0.7325 0.5222 0.6510 30.04 24.72
C10bjet
1650 1230 0.8721 0.30998 1.538 47.05 30.75
C12Trig
match
941 335 0.5703 0.2724 4.925 51.41 26.34