Tomoko Hasegawa (NIES, Japan) · 2020-02-06 · Tomoko Hasegawa (NIES, Japan) 1 The 18th AIM...

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Tomoko Hasegawa (NIES, Japan) 1 The 18 th AIM international workshop, 14-16 Dec, 2012 * AFOLU: Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (IPCC, 2006)

Transcript of Tomoko Hasegawa (NIES, Japan) · 2020-02-06 · Tomoko Hasegawa (NIES, Japan) 1 The 18th AIM...

Page 1: Tomoko Hasegawa (NIES, Japan) · 2020-02-06 · Tomoko Hasegawa (NIES, Japan) 1 The 18th AIM international workshop, 14-16 Dec, 2012 * AFOLU: Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land

Tomoko Hasegawa (NIES, Japan)

1

The 18th AIM international workshop, 14-16 Dec, 2012

* AFOLU: Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (IPCC, 2006)

Page 2: Tomoko Hasegawa (NIES, Japan) · 2020-02-06 · Tomoko Hasegawa (NIES, Japan) 1 The 18th AIM international workshop, 14-16 Dec, 2012 * AFOLU: Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land

Energy supply

26%

Industry19%

Agriculture14%

Deforestation17%

Transport13%

Residential & commercial

8%

Waste3%

GHG emission from LULUCF

• 17% of global emission

• High emission rate in Asia

2

(MoE, Indonesia, 2010)

17%

(IPCC, 2007)

Global GHG emission

Energy21%

Industrial Process

3%

Agriculture4%

LUCF38%

Peat Fire25%

Waste9%

GHG emission in Indonesia in 2005

63%

Page 3: Tomoko Hasegawa (NIES, Japan) · 2020-02-06 · Tomoko Hasegawa (NIES, Japan) 1 The 18th AIM international workshop, 14-16 Dec, 2012 * AFOLU: Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land

AFOLU Bottom-up type model (AFOLU-B)

• Country & sectoral model: LULUCF (& agriculture)

• Emission mitigation model with bottom-up technologies – Calculate GHG mitigation potentials & technology

selection

– Optimization calculation to maximize mitigation potential or minimize total mitigation cost

– Given future scenarios of AFOLU sector’s activity

3

Page 4: Tomoko Hasegawa (NIES, Japan) · 2020-02-06 · Tomoko Hasegawa (NIES, Japan) 1 The 18th AIM international workshop, 14-16 Dec, 2012 * AFOLU: Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land

Required information of AFOLU-B

4

AFOLU-B

(1) Future scenarios on

- Agricultural production

- Area of land use change

- Fertilizer input

- Manure management

system etc.

(3) Policy scenarios

- Emission tax

- Subsidy etc.

(2) GHG mitigation

technologies

- Cost

- Mitigation efficiency

- Lifetime etc.

Agricultural module

LULUCF module

- GHG mitigation potentials - Combination of mitigation

technologies

Page 5: Tomoko Hasegawa (NIES, Japan) · 2020-02-06 · Tomoko Hasegawa (NIES, Japan) 1 The 18th AIM international workshop, 14-16 Dec, 2012 * AFOLU: Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land

Research question on mitigation in LULUCF

• Which time span is better to make a reduction target?

– Up to 2020, 2030?, or

– Up to 2050?

• By when mitigation effect should be taken into account?

– At 2030?, or

– Up to 2050?

time 2030 2070 40years planting

Ex. Plantation

Page 6: Tomoko Hasegawa (NIES, Japan) · 2020-02-06 · Tomoko Hasegawa (NIES, Japan) 1 The 18th AIM international workshop, 14-16 Dec, 2012 * AFOLU: Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land

Optimization schemes of technology selection

6

Time spans to make decision

every time step (Recursive case)

the entire period (Dynamic case)

Present view point (Present case)

Up-to Future view point (Future case)

2010 2030 (2070) Application period

Present point of view

Future point of view

• Technology application period: 2010-2030 • Mitigation up to 2070 is taken into account in SQF &WQF.

View point to consider mitigation effect & cost

Page 7: Tomoko Hasegawa (NIES, Japan) · 2020-02-06 · Tomoko Hasegawa (NIES, Japan) 1 The 18th AIM international workshop, 14-16 Dec, 2012 * AFOLU: Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land

Assumptions & Constraints

• Use IPCC methodology to estimate GHG emission

• Constant ratio of fire area to total forestland

• Mitigation cost constraint

– Dynamic case: 1.0 bil.US$

– Recursive case: 48 mil.US$/yr

• Once technology starts, it continues for lifetime.

• Only once land conversion (exl. otherland)

7

Averaged into annual

Page 8: Tomoko Hasegawa (NIES, Japan) · 2020-02-06 · Tomoko Hasegawa (NIES, Japan) 1 The 18th AIM international workshop, 14-16 Dec, 2012 * AFOLU: Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Are

a[M

ha]

Other land

Settlements

Cropland

Grassland

Forestland

Future land use scenario BaU case

Develop future scenario based on national reports.

Remaining land

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Are

a [

Mh

a]

Other land

Settlements

Cropland

Grassland

Forestland

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Are

a [M

ha/

year

]OL to GL

GL to SL

GL to CL

OL to SL

OL to CL

FL to SL

FL to GL

FL to CL - with peatland drainage

FL to CL - by fire

FL to CL

Converted land

w/o fire & w/o peat drainage

with fire with peat drainage

Emission factors and mitigation technology are different among the three conversions

Page 9: Tomoko Hasegawa (NIES, Japan) · 2020-02-06 · Tomoko Hasegawa (NIES, Japan) 1 The 18th AIM international workshop, 14-16 Dec, 2012 * AFOLU: Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land

②GHG mitigation technology in LULUCF sector

Countermeasures Marginal

cost

[US$/tCO2]

Lifetime

[yr]

Annual

available area

[000ha/yr]

Technically

available area

[Mha]

Reduced Impact Logging 0.02 35 200 40.1

Enhanced natural regeneration 0.07 35 600 38.1

Reforestation-fast growing species 0.28 12 200 5.2

Reforestation-slow growing species 0.13 40 200 7.3

Plantation-short rotation 1.06 10 195 6.6

Plantation-long rotation 0.29 35 195 1.4

Avoid deforestation 30 1 700 21.0

Forest Protection 0.32 1 235 17.1

Prevention of forest fire 0.35 1 30 0.9

Water management in peatland 0.85 1 30 0.9

Peatland rehabilitation 5.21 35 30 0.9

Page 10: Tomoko Hasegawa (NIES, Japan) · 2020-02-06 · Tomoko Hasegawa (NIES, Japan) 1 The 18th AIM international workshop, 14-16 Dec, 2012 * AFOLU: Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land

Land category & conversion type to apply technologies

10

n

Technologies Conversion type

Reduced Impact Logging

Enhanced natural regeneratio

Reforestation-fast growing species

Reforestation-slow growing species

Plantation-short rotation Normal

Reduction

Plantation-long rotation Normal

Reduction

Avoid deforestation Normal

Forest Protection Normal

Fire prevention Fire

Water management in peatland Peatland

Peatland rehabilitation Peatland

Land converted

other land

-> forestland

Land converted

forestland

-> cropland

Land category

Remaining forestland

Page 11: Tomoko Hasegawa (NIES, Japan) · 2020-02-06 · Tomoko Hasegawa (NIES, Japan) 1 The 18th AIM international workshop, 14-16 Dec, 2012 * AFOLU: Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land

Results

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Page 12: Tomoko Hasegawa (NIES, Japan) · 2020-02-06 · Tomoko Hasegawa (NIES, Japan) 1 The 18th AIM international workshop, 14-16 Dec, 2012 * AFOLU: Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land

GHG emission from LULUCF in Indonesia

• Adjust emission in 2000 by comparing with National communication.

• BaU Emission in 2010-2030

– 19GtCO2, 720-1060MtCO2/yr (excl. peatfire)

– 26GtCO2, 1100-1380MtCO2/yr (incl. peatfire)

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Emis

ssio

n [

MtC

O2

/ye

ar]

Peat fire

Peatland drainage

Removal

Emission

Page 13: Tomoko Hasegawa (NIES, Japan) · 2020-02-06 · Tomoko Hasegawa (NIES, Japan) 1 The 18th AIM international workshop, 14-16 Dec, 2012 * AFOLU: Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land

Total mitigation potential for 1bil.US$

13

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

Recursive Dynamic Recursive Dynamic

Present view point case Future view point case

Mit

igat

ion

[G

tCO

2]

Total mitigation

Mitigation up to 2030

Technology selection from long-term view point may make larger mitigation potential, but short-term view point may make less total mitigation. Long-term reduction target seems to be important.

Page 14: Tomoko Hasegawa (NIES, Japan) · 2020-02-06 · Tomoko Hasegawa (NIES, Japan) 1 The 18th AIM international workshop, 14-16 Dec, 2012 * AFOLU: Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land

Breakdown of mitigation by technology for 1bil.US$

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0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Mit

igat

ion

po

ten

tial

[M

tCO

2/y

ear]

Present mitigation potential Peatland rehabilitation

Water management in peatland

Prevention of forest fire

Forest Protection

Avoid deforestation

Plantation-long rotation

Plantation-short rotation

Reforestation-slow growing species

Reforestation-fast growing species

Enhanced natural regeneration

Reduced Impact Logging

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

Present viewpoint case

Present viewpoint case

Future viewpoint case

Future viewpoint case

Recursive Dynamic Recursive Dynamic

Mit

igat

ion

[G

tCO

2]

Take long time but make large amount of mitigation

More types of technologies are selected

Page 15: Tomoko Hasegawa (NIES, Japan) · 2020-02-06 · Tomoko Hasegawa (NIES, Japan) 1 The 18th AIM international workshop, 14-16 Dec, 2012 * AFOLU: Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070

Mit

igat

ion

po

ten

tial

[M

tCO

2/y

ear] teq632

teq631

teq630

teq621

teq618

teq617

teq616

teq620

teq619

teq612

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070

Mit

igat

ion

po

ten

tial

[M

tCO

2/y

ear]

teq632

teq631

teq630

teq621

teq618

teq617

teq616

teq620

teq619

teq612

teq602

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Mit

iga

tio

n p

ote

ntia

l [M

tC

O2

/y

ea

r] teq632

teq631

teq630

teq621

teq618

teq617

teq616

teq620

teq619

teq612

teq602

Time-series annual mitigation

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Recursive

Present view point

Dynamic

Future view point

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Mit

iga

tio

n p

ote

ntia

l [M

tC

O2

/y

ea

r]

teq632

teq631

teq630

teq621

teq618

teq617

teq616

teq620

teq619

teq612

teq602

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Mit

igat

ion

po

ten

tial

[M

tCO

2/y

ear]

Present mitigation potential Peatland rehabilitation

Water management in peatland

Prevention of forest fire

Forest Protection

Avoid deforestation

Plantation-long rotation

Plantation-short rotation

Reforestation-slow growing species

Reforestation-fast growing species

Enhanced natural regeneration

Reduced Impact Logging

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

Present viewpoint case

Present viewpoint case

Future viewpoint case

Future viewpoint case

Recursive Dynamic Recursive Dynamic

Mit

igat

ion

[G

tCO

2]

From future view point , mitigation upto2030 are not so high but it makes large amount of mitigation from a long term view point.

Page 16: Tomoko Hasegawa (NIES, Japan) · 2020-02-06 · Tomoko Hasegawa (NIES, Japan) 1 The 18th AIM international workshop, 14-16 Dec, 2012 * AFOLU: Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land

Cost breakdown Total cost = 1 bil. US$

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Present view point

2nd & 3rd highest efficient technologies

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070

Co

st[m

il.U

S$/y

ear]

teq632

teq631

teq630

teq621

teq618

teq617

teq616

teq620

teq619

teq612

teq602

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070

Co

st[m

il.U

S$/y

ear]

teq632

teq631

teq630

teq621

teq618

teq617

teq616

teq620

teq619

teq612

teq602

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Co

st[m

il.U

S$/y

ear

]

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Co

st[m

il.U

S$/y

ear]

Dynamic

Recursive

Future view point

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Mit

igat

ion

po

ten

tial

[M

tCO

2/y

ear]

Present mitigation potential Peatland rehabilitation

Water management in peatland

Prevention of forest fire

Forest Protection

Avoid deforestation

Plantation-long rotation

Plantation-short rotation

Reforestation-slow growing species

Reforestation-fast growing species

Enhanced natural regeneration

Reduced Impact Logging

Only highest mitigation technologies are applied

Page 17: Tomoko Hasegawa (NIES, Japan) · 2020-02-06 · Tomoko Hasegawa (NIES, Japan) 1 The 18th AIM international workshop, 14-16 Dec, 2012 * AFOLU: Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land

Cost breakdown Total cost = 1 bil. US$

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Present view point

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070

Co

st[m

il.U

S$/y

ear]

teq632

teq631

teq630

teq621

teq618

teq617

teq616

teq620

teq619

teq612

teq602

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070

Co

st[m

il.U

S$/y

ear]

teq632

teq631

teq630

teq621

teq618

teq617

teq616

teq620

teq619

teq612

teq602

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Co

st[m

il.U

S$/y

ear

]

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Co

st[m

il.U

S$/y

ear]

Future view point

Save & use as O&M cost after 2030 to make larger mitigation .

Dynamic

Recursive

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Mit

igat

ion

po

ten

tial

[M

tCO

2/y

ear]

Present mitigation potential Peatland rehabilitation

Water management in peatland

Prevention of forest fire

Forest Protection

Avoid deforestation

Plantation-long rotation

Plantation-short rotation

Reforestation-slow growing species

Reforestation-fast growing species

Enhanced natural regeneration

Reduced Impact Logging

Page 18: Tomoko Hasegawa (NIES, Japan) · 2020-02-06 · Tomoko Hasegawa (NIES, Japan) 1 The 18th AIM international workshop, 14-16 Dec, 2012 * AFOLU: Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land

Barrier

• “Reforestation of slow glowing species” and “Enhanced natural regeneration”

High efficient, but long-term technologies. • Short/middle-term reduction target will make lower

efficient technology selection? Which kind of policy is required? • Long-term reduction target may cause large mitigation. • Take into account time for reduction in LULUCF • Avoid stopping technology application due to financial

and political issues

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Page 19: Tomoko Hasegawa (NIES, Japan) · 2020-02-06 · Tomoko Hasegawa (NIES, Japan) 1 The 18th AIM international workshop, 14-16 Dec, 2012 * AFOLU: Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land

Summary

• AFOLUB was developed and applied to Indonesia.

• High effect technologies from a long-term view point:

– Reforestation-slow growing species

– Enhanced natural regeneration

• To reduce emission efficiently in LULUCF,

– Technology selection from a long-term view point

– Avoid stopping technology application due to short-term issues

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Page 20: Tomoko Hasegawa (NIES, Japan) · 2020-02-06 · Tomoko Hasegawa (NIES, Japan) 1 The 18th AIM international workshop, 14-16 Dec, 2012 * AFOLU: Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land

Appendix

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Page 21: Tomoko Hasegawa (NIES, Japan) · 2020-02-06 · Tomoko Hasegawa (NIES, Japan) 1 The 18th AIM international workshop, 14-16 Dec, 2012 * AFOLU: Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Co

st[m

il.U

S$/y

ear]

Present cost breakdownteq632

teq631

teq630

teq621

teq618

teq617

teq616

teq620

teq619

teq612

teq6020

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Co

st[m

il.U

S$/y

ear]

Present cost breakdown teq632

teq631

teq630

teq621

teq618

teq617

teq616

teq620

teq619

teq612

teq602

Cost breakdown under the same cost allocation

Same results Cost allocation is a key.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Co

st[m

il.U

S$/y

ear]

Present cost breakdownteq632

teq631

teq630

teq621

teq618

teq617

teq616

teq620

teq619

teq612

teq602