These Views Are Not Necessarily

Those of the U.S. Federal Trade Commission

(or of any individual commissioner)

本文仅代表作者个人观点不代表联邦贸易委员会或任何委员的观点

A Critical Look

At Critical Loss

对临界损失分析的一个审视

Three Goals of this Talk本次讨论的三个目标

• CLA Defined. How it is Used (and at times misused)

• 定义临界损失分析：如何使用（有时误用）

• CLA: Special Cases• 临界损失分析：特殊情况

• CLA and Competitive Effects • 临界损失分析和竞争效应

What Critical Loss Is临界损失分析是什么？

It is an effort to answer the following question: “Would a price increase of

X percent be profitable?” 临界损失分析试图回答以下问题：“将价格提

高 X% 是否有利可图？”

MC

P0

P1

Added 增加的利润 Lost

损失的利润

The Pain vs. The Gain提价的得与失

Price, Cost价格，成本

Quantity产量

Two Effects from Raising Price提价带来的两种效应

• a. Lower from losing sales• a. 由于销量损失而失去的利润

• b. Greater on sales at higher prices • b. 由于提价而增加的利润

Enter CLA进入临界损失分析

• If losses are < than some “Critical” amount, the X% price increase raises profits

• 如果损失的销量小于某一“临界”数量，则 X% 的提价能够增加利润。

Some Economics of Profit Maximization一些关于利润最大化的经济学

• Firms maximize profit by setting MR =MC • 企业通过设定边际收益 = 边际成本取得 最大利润

• This generates the following relationship:

• (P-Marginal Cost)/P = 1 / (the firm’s demand elasticity)

• 据此可得出以下关系：

• Lesson: In general, when a firm’s price-cost margin is high, it doesn’t lose many sales from raising price a little. And, it doesn’t gain many sales when it lowers price a little

• 经验：一般而言，当企业的价格成本利润率很高时，小幅提价不会损失很多销售量，小幅降价也不会增加很多销售量。

.

- 1=

价格 边际成本价格 企业的需求弹性

Pretty Lady is Merging with Beautiful Fragrance 漂亮女士与美丽香水的合并

• Profit-maximizing P, Pre-merger, is $100 for Both

• 合并前双方的利润最大化价格都是 $100

• Per unit Marginal Cost for Both is Constant at $75

• 双方每单位的边际成本恒为 $ 75

• Price Elasticity of Demand Facing Pretty Lady is -4

• 漂亮女士所面临的需求价格弹性为 -4

• One-quarter of Lost Pretty Lady Sales Go to Beautiful Fragrance• 漂亮女士所损失的销售量有四分之一被美丽香水收入囊中

• Critical Loss Unilateral Effects Question:

• 临界损失单边效应问题：• Will the merged firm profit from a 5% increase in the price of

Pretty Lady?

• 将漂亮女士的价格提高 5% ，合并后的企业是否将会获利？

Did you notice…你是否注意到…

• That we just analyzed a merger’s competitive effect without first defining a market?

• 我们刚才分析了一起合并的竞争效应，却没有先界定一个市场 ?

Caveats & Non-Standard Applications注意事项和非标准应用

CLA: Price Increases > a SSNIP 临界损失分析：提价幅度 > 一个 SSNIP

CLA: Price Discrimination is Feasible临界损失分析：价格歧视是可行的

CLA: Demand or MC Change Greatly as Output Changes临界损失分析：需求或者边际成本随着产出的变动而大幅变动