19 September 2010NIKKEI Global Eco-Business Forum

Hiroshi KomiyamaChairman of the Institute,Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc., Japan

President emeritus, University of Tokyo

The Low-Carbon Society in China～What can Japan do ?～

（ 108 ）

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

World population

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1900

億トン(108t)

1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Crop production

米 Rice小麦 WheatトウモロコシCorn

(bill

ion

tonn

es,o

ileq

uiva

lent

)

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 20000

2

4

6

1

3

5

87

109

20X

Energy consumption

Expansion in 20th century and the finite earth

3.5X 7.5X

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

at Law Dome, Antarcticaat Mauna Loa, Hawaii

Year

Atmospheric CO2

出所：「課題先進国日本」P59 出所：「課題先進国日本」P59

出所：「課題先進国日本」P61 出所：「課題先進国日本」P62

We need a concurrent approachto accelerate the process.

2050 will come soon.

2050 will be the crucial time ofthe human civilization, due to

the shrinking earth, aging societyand exploding knowledge .

Vision 2050

Improve energy efficiency by three times

Double the use of non-fossil energy

Establish recycling system of materials

to solve the crisis of global warming, environmentalIssues and natural resources depletion.

Vision 2050

Saturation of artifacts in developed countries

０．０１１３India０．０２３２China０．４９４１Germany０．５０３１France０．５１３１Britain０．４５１３８USA０．４５５８Japan

No. of automobiles perpopulation

No. ofautomobiles

（million）

Source：Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association,Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications

１．The number of automobile ownership（2007）

２．Transition of number of total houses and households（8 million vacant houses)

Source：1958～2008：Ministry of Public Management, Home Affairs, Posts and Telecommunications (MPHPT)2015～2030：National Institute of Population and Social Security Research

Saturation of artifacts in Japan

Total houses (thousand)

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2015 2020 2025 2030

total houses(thousands)households(thousands)

セメント生産量：国連統計年鑑人口：UNSD Demographic Statistics、

および国連統計年鑑より

Saturation will come within 10 years in China

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

人口

一人

当たりセメント生

産量

［ton

/人］

JapanChinaUSAFrance

Pro

duct

ion

ofC

emen

tper

pers

on[t

on]

Production of cement per person

Source：Production of Cement：UN Statistical year book

Population：UNSD Demographic Statistics

Year

人口一人当たり自動車販売台数の経年変化

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

JapanUSAFranceKorea Rep.China

Year

Automobiles in china will saturate within 5～10years

Automobile sales per personA

utom

obile

ssa

les

per

pers

on

YearAutomobile sales：automobile industry handbook (Japanese)“U.S. Automobile Production Figures” from Wikipedia etc.

Population：UNSD Demographic Statistics

Automobile energy consumption to 1/10

Vehicle Weight [kg]Data Source: Yahoo! Japan Autos

Fue

lCon

sum

ptio

n[L

/km

]

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

US/European Cars

Japanese Cars

Hybrid Cars

Electric & Fuel cells Cars

Theory is key!

1960 1970 1980 1990Year

USDenmarkBelgiumFranceSweden

Source: Japan Cement Association

Japan

Ener

gyCo

nsum

ptio

npe

rton

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

0

6,000(MJ/t)

theoretical value

Technology transfer can reduce emissionCement

Deep insight is key !

Energy efficiency improvement by 3 times is feasible.Investment for energy efficiency is win-win-win.

Energy Scenario and CO2

a) 19906.0G C-ton

1.5G

b) 2050 BAU case

c) Vision 2050

d) After 22nd Century

1.5G

22.0G C-ton

3.0G

Fossil resources

Non- Fossil resources

Data: from “Vision 2050”

CO2 369 ppm

CO2 600 ppm

CO2 460 ppm

CO2 280 ppm

4.5G C-ton

22nd century will be bright!

0

5

10

15

20

1997 2050 1997 2050

Developed Countries Developing Countries

Em

issi

on

,G

C-t

on

fossil non-fossil

5.0

1.7 2.5

5.8

17.5

Growth is rights but efficiency is duties !

Compiled data created by The University of Tokyo

Challenge２５ CampaignーTeam Ｋomiyama’s proposal－

Daily life １２％

Making things ３％

Nuclear energy etc. ５％

Forest etc. ５％

ＣＤＭ ５％

Making thingsDaily life

Home

Transportation

Office

Ⓒ Hiroshi Komiyama

Energy consumption by final use in Japan

Air-conditioner28%

Water heating30%

others24%

kitchen8%

Energy consumption in houses

エネルギー・経済統計要覧2009年版より

lighting10%

50%: air-conditioner 20%: lighting in offices

Water Heater

US (majority)

Tank storage 40%

5

Japan (majority)

Heat-to-use 80%

2.5

Heat-pump (ecocute)

50%×4=200%

1

Fuel cell (enefarm)36% elec. + 50% hot water

0

Technology innovation of Japan

Komiyama ecohouse: Yes, we can !

81% reduction in residential& transportation sectors

Solar panel : 3.6 ｋW

Heat-pump water heater

Insulation : K=1.6 W/m2K

New air-conditioner

Ⓒ 小宮山 宏

Hybrid car：22.6km/l

New refrigerator & lightings

present

東京屋形船案内http://www.t-yakata.com/tyh_dkship.htm

1967

環境省 図で見る環境白書 昭和５７年http://www.env.go.jp/policy/hakusyo/zu/eav11/eav110000000000.html

Japan’s experience with Sumida river

present1950’s

Japan’s experience with Yokkaichi

Ⓒ Yokkaichi City

http://www.city.yokkaichi.mie.jp/kankyo/kogai.htm

Japan’s experience with Kitakyusyu

Source：Japan as a forerunner for addressing emerging problems in the world P27

Scenery with water in Tokyo

Source: Nikkei Inc.

Coexistence of economics andenvironment

Source: Nikkei Inc.Genkai nuclear power plant

Mt Fuji and Metropolis of Tokyo

24

東京電力ホームページより作成http://www.tepco.co.jp/csr/report/download/2006/015-j.pdf)http://www.tepco.co.jp/custom/LapLearn/mission/env_02-j.html)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

日 本

カナダ

イタリア

フランス

ドイツ

イギリス

アメリカ

1999年

2002年

発電量当たりのSOx発生量 [g/kWh]

火力発電所からの硫黄酸化物排出原単位の国際比較

4.83.7

3.22.6

1.20.7

7.12.0

2.71.7

4.03.9

0.20.2

Emission of Sulfur Oxides from Thermal Power Plants

Data Source: Tokyo Electric Power Company, web-siteSOx (kg/kwh)

U.S.

U.K.

Germany

Italy

France

Canada

Japan

21 Innovative technologies in Japan

③CCS (Carbon dioxide Captureand Storage)④innovative Photovoltaicpower generation⑤progressive nuclear powergeneration

①high-efficient LNG thermalpower generation②high-efficient coal-burningpower generation

⑥superconductive high-efficient transmission

⑲high-powered electric storage ⑳power electronics21hydrogen production・transportation・storage ③CCS

Cross-function

⑬zero-emission house & building ⑭high-efficient lighting⑮fixed fuel cell ⑯super high efficient heat pump⑰energy-saving information instrument・system ⑱HEMS/BEMS

Public welfare

⑪innovative technology of material・production・processing⑫innovative process of iron manufacture

industry

⑦ITS ⑧fuel-cell vehicle ⑨plug-in highbred vehicle・electricvehicle⑩biomass

Transportation

Low-carbonHigh-efficiencyPowergeneration&transmission

Source: Cool Earth, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry

Rates of water leaks

Tokyo ３．１％

Los Angeles ９％

Moscow １０％

Cairo ２０％

London ２６．５％

Bangkok ３３％

Mexico ３５％

Technology to prevent water leaksTechnology to prevent water leaks

Strong point of Japan in technology about water business

Filtration Membrane（RO/NF）Share of Japanese companiesFiltration Membrane（RO/NF）Share of Japanese companies

Dow Chemical39.1%

日東電工／Hydranautics

27.0%

東レ 16.2%

東洋紡 5.3%

WoongjinChemical

3.5%

その他 9.0% （金額ベース 2008年度）

出所：（株）富士経済報告書「2009年版水資源関連市場の現状と将来展望」

Filtration membrane: Japanese companies account for 50% in the world.Preventing water leaks: Japanese technology is the best in the world.

Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry

Source: Bureau of Waterworks Tokyo Metropolitan Government

27

Paradigm in 21st century

20thCentury

Infinite earth

Shrinking earth

21stCentury

Aging society

•Climate change•Depleting resource•Pollution•Food, water

•Longevity•Small birth rate•Saturating demand•Pension•Medicine•Care•Work sharing•Barrier free …

•Financial crisis•Pandemic …

20001900

CO2

H2OChlorophyll

O2Sunlight

carbohydrateCO2

H2O

photosynthesis

Exploding knowledge

Source：Japan as a forerunner for addressing emerging problems in the world P134

Age65～Age65～

Age15～64Age15～64

～age14～age14

Year2005 127millionYear2055 89million

National census 2005, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications

Shrinking earth

Aging society

Eco houseEco applianceEco carSolar panelWind mill

Barrier free buildingHealth monitoringSafe mobilitySenses supporting

Green & silver & golden growth

Exploding knowledge

Structuring knowledgeStructured knowledge- baseEducationLifelong learningValue creation

Ⓒ Hiroshi Komiyama

Expo 2010 shanghai china

Chinese pavilion

Japanese pavilionSource: the official Website of Expo 2010 Shanghai China

Mascot ”Haibao”

Our relationship between China andJapan has started long ago, sincea Japanese envoy was sent toChina in the Tang Dynasty.

China is not only a country with bigmarket, but has been and willalways be an old and dear friend toJapan.

Thank you!