THE LATIN AMERICAN NONWOVEN MARKET –AN OVERVIEW · PDF fileTHE LATIN AMERICAN NONWOVEN...
Transcript of THE LATIN AMERICAN NONWOVEN MARKET –AN OVERVIEW · PDF fileTHE LATIN AMERICAN NONWOVEN...
THE LATIN AMERICAN NONWOVEN MARKET – AN OVERVIEW
Rick JezziA.D. Jezzi & Associates, LLC April 25, 2013Miami, FL
Agenda
Latin American Demographics
Latin American Economics
Latin American Nonwoven Market
Trends, Opportunities and Challenges
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Demographics of Latin America
LATIN AMERICA•Mostly Spanish speaking except for:
•Brazil•Guyanas, Belize, some CaribbeanKEY GROUPS
•Andean Pact•Colombia, Venezuela, Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia
•Mercosur/Southern Cone•Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay•Chile
• NAFTA•Mexico, US, Canada
2012
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Population‐ Latin America
REGION POPULATION
MEXICO 115
CARIBBEAN 44
CENTRALAMERICA 42
SOUTH AMERICA 395
TOTAL 596
115
42
44
42
10
201
17
47
15 629
3
28
Population: 596 Million :2012 Mexico
Central America
Caribbean
Argentina
Bolivia
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Ecuador
Paraguay
Peru
Uruguay
VenezuelaPOPULATION GROWTH2012‐2017 ~ 1.0% CAGR
633 million by 2017
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Population Demographics
Baby Population (0‐4) decreasing ‐1% Less influence of religious principles Wider birth control methods employed More working women
Women population (15‐49) increasing +1%
Adult Population ( 65+) increasing +3.8%
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Region Economic Distribution
8.9%
66.7%
24.4% EmergingDevelopingMature
2.2%
40.0%40.0%
17.8%Nascent
Emerging
Developing
Mature
2012
2017
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Nascent: <$1,500Emerging: $1500 ‐$12,499Developing: $12,500‐$20,000Mature: <$20,001
PPP/capita Comparison Americas
$49,000
$41,100
$7,591
$11,816
$12,304
$14,800
$‐ $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000
USA
Canada
Central America
South America
Caribbean
Mexico
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KG/Cap of NW per PPP/cap
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000
KG/cap
PPP/cap
LA Region
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Nonwoven Consumption in Latin America ‐ 2012
28.2%
4.2%
3.0%
37.5%
27.2%
64.7%
Mexico
Caribbean
Central America
South America
Brazil
Rest of SA
766,113 MTons/2012 growing to 1,014,925 MTons/2017~5.8% CAGR
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Ratio of Durable to Disposable
34.0%
66.0%
Mature Markets
DurableDisposable
70.8%
29.2%
Latin America
Durable
Disposable
Nonwoven
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POLYMER DISTRIBUTION IN LA
39.4%
36.7%
4.4%4.5%
5.6%4.2% 5.2%
Polypropylene
PET
Polyamides
Viscose
Cellulose
Others
Blends
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LATIN AMERICAN NONWOVEN MARKETS
23.4%1.6%
4.2%70.9%
HygieneWipesMedicalDurable
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Baby Diaper Market‐ SA Baby diaper market growth in region 5.6 % cagr Nonwoven materials growth ~ 8.4 % cagr More diaper features utilize nonwoven materials ~ 5 year lag of feature development over mature markets
Many players in the entire region Every country enjoys share of regional suppliers
Consolidation is slowly occurring as market penetration increases
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Feminine Care Market‐SA
Leads market penetration of all three absorbent categories
Market growth projected also at ~6.1% cagr for thru 2017
Fewer participants in category than diapers
Will achieve full penetration beginning in 2017 in a handful of countries in the region
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Adult Care Market ‐ SA
Still Embryonic
Growing at ~10.2% cag per year through 2017 Demographics of aging population parallels that of other regions
Kimberly Clark and SCA have major share ownership in the region Many smaller suppliers emerging
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Disposable Wipe Market
•Pre‐Moistened Baby Wipe is still Embryonic Market•Growing Rapidly ‐ ~ 10.5% cagr through 2017
•Lower basis weights than most mature markets•20 gsm•SMS and carded materials still used•Little or no airlaid•Local spunlace capacity in Brazil
•Household Wipes market still not much penetrated
•Many suppliers
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Market Penetration by Categories for South American Region
Category Market Penetration‐2012
MarketPenetration‐2017
Feminine Care 67% 85%
Baby Diapers 53% 62%
Adult Incontinence 20% 27%
Baby Wipes 39% 62%
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Nonwoven Technology Distribution within Durable Nonwovens (Metric Tons)
38.2%
4.5%
20.8%
30.0%
5.3% 0.2% 1.0%Needlepunched
Spunlaced
CardedThermobondedSpunbonded
Carded CBW
StitchBonded
Other
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Durable Nonwoven Market‐South America
Relatively large market 355 M MTons growing
to 461 M Mtons ~ 5.4% cagr
Dominated by needlepunchednonwoven
Much below the radar screen
Many vertically integrated companies
Key growth markets Filtration Automotive
5.0%
14.5%
8.3%
34.4%7.5%
9.8%
16.6%
4.0%
Automotive
Filtration
Geo/Agra/Const
Household&Food Stuff
Shoes
Apparel/Interlining
Home Furnishing
Packaging/Bags,CoatingSubstrate
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Major Regional Trends
Political Stability Economic Institutions Stabilizing Growth of the Middle Class Intra Regional Development Globalization and International Trade Development
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Challenges Political
Changes in the political climate from left to right and back again will continue in various countries
Venezuelan government transition from Chavez to Maduro Should not decrease on‐going growth rates
Economical Historically an economic roller coaster, but continuing to tick up
Argentinian price freezes and inflation issues Brazil’s economy slowed down in 2012
Exchange rates have currently been stable but much volatile history precedes them
Vulnerability to international markets
Business Complexity in some Countries (i.e.Brazil) Tax system Logistics Cultural business practices
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Opportunities
Continuing Growth Market for next ~15 years or so Growth of Free Trade Agreements Opportunity in expansion of non‐woven supplier
base and capacity both in Brazil and rest of South America
Introduction of air‐laid nonwoven manufacturing in region
Growth over time in other wipe applications outside of hygiene
Base for renewable polymer usage and manufacture of renewable resource products
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New INDA Nonwoven StudyPublished in April, 2013
Latin American Nonwovens Market 2012‐2017:
Forecast, Trends, and Analysis
A.D. Jezzi & Associates, LLC
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Rick JezziA.D. Jezzi & Associates, LLC169 Upland TerraceBala Cynwyd, PA 19004Tel: 1‐610‐202‐2374 24